Doubling down!! Need Some Help

Hi Gamblers out there. I have a serious issue going on for the past 20 years or so. I wouldn’t call myself a professional gambler but very close to it. I go to Atlantic City once a week. I play 6 decks, No Mid Shoe, Hand Shuffle, and Dealer Stands on Soft 17 tables. I play at a $25 table and I play $25 until I win a hand, then when I win the first hand I take back the first win, and every time I win after that I press up $25 until I get to about $150 and then I go up $50 on every win until I loose. Then I go back to $25 and flat bet $25 on every loss until I win (Progressive Betting) I know that Progressive betting does not change the odds to help winning. I play perfect basic strategy and I usually always catch long run of win streaks when I play but the problem I have and I’m just not sure what to do is with doubling down. I press my bet when I win like I said but I usually always have to double down in my winning streaks and I loose most of them. I loose legitimately about 7-8 double downs out of 10 that I do. I have had family members, friends and my girlfriend watch me consistently loose. To add salt to my wounds I lose a lot of the bigger double down bets because I’m always pressing. It is to the point that I hope that I don’t get ANY double downs and hope to just win and press and if I get a blackjack in my runs that’s a bonus. I know what a lot of you are probably saying, “You’re just not remembering the days and times that you were catching all of your double downs” I can’t remember a day when it was like that. Maybe one time about 10 years ago. By losing almost all of my double downs in a sitting get stuck playing 10-12-15 hours sometimes because I’m down money. As soon as I get ahead I leave and if I do well right off the bat when I sit down 90% of the time it’s because I caught some long runs pressing (possibly with a blackjack) thrown in there with NO double downs. I actually still win money almost every time I go out and play because I’m very patient and no matter how much I’m up or down I continue to press the same way. If I just caught a few double here and there I would be up stacks instead of playing for more hours than I should have play. I actually thought about not doubling down. When my bets get up to $150, $175 plus I thought about just doubling for $25 just to play the hand correctly because its sad to say but I win money because I don’t get any doubles. Sounds crazy but I can’t make this up. I was in Vegas a few months ago and tried FREE BET Blackjack being that I didn’t have to put up the Double Down money. I only played about 3 shoes and lost most of my doubles again and pushed on about 3 dealer 22’s which is also frustrating. The table was 8 deck and BJ’s paid 6-5 which I know is not good for the player. I ended up only being down $50 and got frustrated because a few players started splitting and doubling everything against hands that they shouldn’t because it was FREE. I hate losing when people don’t hit their cards correctly and don’t play basic strategy. I know they say it doesn’t matter what other players do but that argument is for another day. That’s why I always play the first hand so I don’t have to sit behind bad players and see the cards I should get If they played there hand correctly. . If anyone has any advice or something I should do please let me know. Thanks so much.

If your goal is to actually make money, you should stop playing that way.

If that’s not the way to play then what is besides counting. The problem isn’t pressing my bet, the problem is that I loose to high of a percentage of my double downs. If I just didn’t double then I would make money faster. I watch everyone win a high % of their doubles but when I have to double I loose almost all of them. Would you play if you had a 10 or 11 a lot against low cards and you get a 2,3,4 all of the time and the dealer hardly breaks. I doubled about 60 times last week and won’t about 10 if I was lucky and I still won $300 which is a low amount for me. If I won 5-7 more I would of won $1,500 plus. I can’t just bet $25 every time. If I win say 8 in a row I’m only winning $200. If I win 8 in a row pressing I win at least $1,000 or more. A bunch of times I won 15-20 hands in a row at a $100 table. I won every hand and had my bet up to $3,000 when I finally lost. I only had 1 double down in that run $1,200 and $1,200 and actually won. Caught 2 or 3 blackjacks and the rest were just hits. When the run was over I think I won about $13,000. If I just flat bet I would of only won possibly around $2,500-$4,000. It’s my double downs, not my pressing. Besides counting let me know what you would do.

Who's grinding who?

Everyone knows the answers but nobody has one. I watch people guess pressing there bets and loose while I’m still playing. If the game didn’t have doubles then I would win almost every time. And I pretty much do now without counting.

Quote: ACGrinder3333

If that’s not the way to play then what is besides counting. The problem isn’t pressing my bet, the problem is that I loose to high of a percentage of my double downs. If I just didn’t double then I would make money faster. I watch everyone win a high % of their doubles but when I have to double I loose almost all of them. Would you play if you had a 10 or 11 a lot against low cards and you get a 2,3,4 all of the time and the dealer hardly breaks. I doubled about 60 times last week and won’t about 10 if I was lucky and I still won $300 which is a low amount for me. If I won 5-7 more I would of won $1,500 plus. I can’t just bet $25 every time. If I win say 8 in a row I’m only winning $200. If I win 8 in a row pressing I win at least $1,000 or more. A bunch of times I won 15-20 hands in a row at a $100 table. I won every hand and had my bet up to $3,000 when I finally lost. I only had 1 double down in that run $1,200 and $1,200 and actually won. Caught 2 or 3 blackjacks and the rest were just hits. When the run was over I think I won about $13,000. If I just flat bet I would of only won possibly around $2,500-$4,000. It’s my double downs, not my pressing. Besides counting let me know what you would do.

The answer is right beneath your nose.

I don’t do riddles.

Quote: ACGrinder3333

I don’t do riddles.

Welcome to the forum, fellow recreational gambler.
You are playing a losing game. The house has the edge and no matter how clever you think you are, if you are not card counting or hole carding, or exploiting some other advantage, then you are a recreational player destined to grind your bankroll down. That you've had some lucky hands or unlucky hands is incidental to that and quite normal.
The ammout you lose to the house edge is proportional to the amount you wager. Wager more: Lose more. Simple. That said, the hands you double down on are the ones where you have the better expected value, but of course, more impact. If you are not winning those, that's just unlucky. If it's denting your bankroll too much then you sound under funded / over staked.
Depart from basic strategy when you are not counting if you want to lose faster.

My bankroll is very large and not under funded. I pretty much win money every week without counting believe it or not. I just have very bad luck I guess I can chalk it up to my doubles. If it wasn’t for pressing my bets I would loose like I watch everyone else. By loosing my doubles it forces me to play longer hours than I should. If I won a higher percentage of them like I watch other people do I would win my money quicker. I win more money when I catch runs without doubles. I guess I will just chalk it up to bad luck!!!! Maybe one day I will win more doubles but until then. Even if I was counting who doesn’t double an 11 with a dealer 6 up. No one!!! I just continuously get small cards and the dealer doesn’t break. Imagine doubling 50-60 times and getting a picture 9 times. Sounds unbelievable but it happens to me all the time.

Sounds like you are remembering your doubles lost while you had big bets out there. So after you had a long winning streak. So likely with a negative count. Not surprising.

I don’t believe your doubles are worse on average than anyone else’s. If you do, then stop doubling and hit instead. See if you start doing any better and come back and report.

No one on this site sells magic fairy dust to make your doubles better.

Quote: unJon

No one on this site sells magic fairy dust to make your doubles better.

especially when double-downs (all using Basic Strategy) win ONLY (on average) about 55% of the time.
that is poor in a short session.

when I play BJ (yuck) I never double down or split and I win almost all my hands.

But Blackjack is such an ugly game to play
unless one can play heads up with the dealer, in other words,
most all Blackjack players really ruin the game for everyone, imo
unsolicited advice, grumpy when lose because someone plays poorly with their own money etc
endless

Sally

Quote: ACGrinder3333

I pretty much win money every week without counting believe it or not. I just have very bad luck I guess.

Just Imagine how you’d do if your luck was good

The OP has evidently done something to upset the Sacred Flow Of the cards.
Outside of staying properly hydrated, he needs suggestions on riding this out until the Fickle Finger of Fate moves on.
All I have for him is kind words.
Stay the course, Brother.
This too shall pass.

Quote: billryan

The OP has evidently done something to upset the Sacred Flow Of the cards.
Outside of staying properly hydrated, he needs suggestions on riding this out until the Fickle Finger of Fate moves on.
All I have for him is kind words.
Stay the course, Brother.
This too shall pass.

He’s saying he needs help with winning his double downs, a common request from the professionsl blackjack non counter.

I can offer a few ideas:

Ask if they will give you the card face down. No reason to stress out over that 3 they gave you on your 11 when the dealers gonna bust anyway.

Slam the table after you put your extra bet up there, and yell something like MONKEY, or BIG ONE, this seems to work more often than not. However don’t do it when doubling your soft 17

Trust me, I understand if I’m not counting them I’m gambling. I just want some advice about doubling. Being that I’m not counting, there has to be a lot of times that I’m doubling when the counts high but I’m still loosing a high % of them. It’s just very frustrating getting long winning runs and pressing and then loosing doubles. How could a counter or non counter not double an 11 into a dealers 6 no matter how much money is out there and what the count is. I continue loose them and I just wanted some suggestions. Is it just bad luck? Maybe the count isn’t high that I should be doubling down so what would a counter do even with an ace 3 into a dealers 6. If they just hit and get an Ace and then hit again that would not be the correct Basic Strategy Play. Any positive suggestions are welcome.

Quote: ACGrinder3333

Trust me, I understand if I’m not counting them I’m gambling. I just want some advice about doubling.

Double when basic strategy tells you to double: Simple.

Quote:

... but I’m still loosing a high % of them. It’s just very frustrating getting long winning runs and pressing and then loosing doubles.

That's the way the cookie crumbles. Doubles and splits are where the variance lives. If you don't like the variance, then don't double or split... But it will cost you in agregate

Quote:

How could a counter or non counter not double an 11 into a dealers 6 no matter how much money is out there and what the count is.

He's do it and bite the bullet

Quote:

I continue loose them and I just wanted some suggestions. Is it just bad luck?

Chill. It's bad luck... or selective memory

Quote:

Any positive suggestions are welcome.

I'm positive that your best strategy is basic strategy come rain or shine.

Trust me. It’s bad luck. I’m in Ac once a week. I can’t make this up. If you saw it you would t believe it. Players, dealers and people that are with me can’t believe it and I come out ahead almost every time. Most of the time I have to put in a lot of hours because I lose most of my doubles

And I wouldn’t be on here asking if I had weeks or months that I did really well with them

Quote: ACGrinder3333

Trust me. It’s bad luck. I’m in Ac once a week. I can’t make this up. If you saw it you would t believe it. Players, dealers and people that are with me can’t believe it and I come out ahead almost every time. Most of the time I have to put in a lot of hours because I lose most of my doubles

Then just keep doing what you’re doing, but bet more. You’ll win more that way.

Quote: ACGrinder3333

Trust me. It’s bad luck. I’m in Ac once a week. I can’t make this up. If you saw it you would t believe it. Players, dealers and people that are with me can’t believe it and I come out ahead almost every time. Most of the time I have to put in a lot of hours because I lose most of my doubles

So to summarize this thread:

- You are playing blackjack using basic strategy and not counting.

- You are losing a disproportional percentage of your double downs

- You are winning every week

Yes. But loosing a high % of double downs when I should be winning more of them so that I’m not playing for more hours than I should. If I just catch a few here or there it would put me up enough money to leave the table instead of going backwards and then I have to continuously do it all over again.

Quote: ACGrinder3333

Yes. But losing a high % of double downs when I should be winning more of them so that I’m not playing for more hours than I should. If I just catch a few here or there it would put me up enough money to leave the table instead of going backwards and then I have to continuously do it all over again.

Well you've answered your own question. You are a mathematical anomaly: A magnet for losing doubles. A singularity. A universal victim of spiteful lady luck

So, don't double. Just hit. By your own empirical evidence, you will lose less on the doubles and presumably continue to clean up on the non-doubled hands. What could possibly go wrong?

Or accept that you are subject to the same universal laws of maths as we mere mortals and play properly... and lose like the rest of us. ( or count or exploit )

You didn't come here for advice. You came to trumpet some perceived quirk in your little part of the universe. No-one here is going to really advise you to betray the laws of probability. Basic strategy is not wrong, it just takes its sweet time to smooth out.

Play through it. It's probably selective memory at work, anyway... You lose half a percent of your total action and remember a few chunky lost doubles, so they must be to blame. They are not.

Incidentally, it is quite QUITE typical to spend a few hours with bankroll gently ebbing and flowing and then suddenly get a couple of hands consecutively splitting twice and doubling. Those last few hands make or break your session. You curse or you whoop and cheer. Every earlier little ripple in your bankroll fades into insignificance. You just have a flair for remembering the times it went bad.

Here is a simple money making move.
Sell your hand.
If you are playing $10 a hand, offer it at $12. Even if you just get your money back, you are ahead by your reckoning.

I'm going to disagree with people who know more than I do on this. Caveat emptor.

You're doing a positive betting progression without counting. That makes a difference, because even though basic strategy is basic strategy regardless of the bet size, you're wildly increasing your variance without regard to the actual odds of the remaining deck (because you're not counting), and you have very little tolerance for the high risk of doubling or splitting AT or near YOUR TOP BET. Losing one of those doesn't just wipe out your last hand gains, it wipes out the last 5 hands or whatever.

It's the combination that kills you. So you either need to

1. Stay closer to flat-betting to dampen your variance.
2. Hit instead of doubling or splitting on marginal +ev hands, when at or near your top bet.
3. Learn to count and become more selective in your doubles with a better awareness of the deck composition.
4. Increase either your bankroll or your time frame expectations to withstand the variance you're experiencing.

or some combination of that.

Regardless, IMO, you have to keep doubling your 11v6 hands if you're going to play at all. That part is just variance.

There's nothing wrong with progressive betting if you keep it reasonable. Going from $5 to $500 is stupid.

Bet $5, $10, $20 (add $15 in between if you want) then go back to $5. Don't keep increasing the bet. That is poor bankroll management.