JimmyMac
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October 12th, 2010 at 3:01:12 PM permalink
I like to play the don't pass side of the craps table. However, the biggest challenge is simply getting past the come out roll. Once you have established a point, the odds are to your advantage that a 7 will come up before the point. What I am curious to know is how it would reduce the house edge if on the come out roll I layed the 4 or 10?

For example, if I placed $100 on the Don't Pass and then layed the 4 for $200, I am essentially taking the 7 out of the equation except for the 5% commission I must pay to the house for laying the 4. Then, when the point was rolled, I could simply place my Lay 4 on the off position and then sit back and wait for the 7 to come up. If I was worried about the 11 on the come out roll, I could place a $10.00 YO bet. With the 5% commission on the win and the $10 YO bet, I'm down $15.00 per roll before even starting. But, I have the edge on the point.

I know there is NO way to beat craps. I'm simply looking for a way to get past that dreaded come out roll when playing the Don't Pass.

I'd much rather lose $15.00 and have a chance of winning rather than lose $100 and not even make it on the board.

Anybody every tried this or have any thoughts?
RaleighCraps
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October 12th, 2010 at 3:06:35 PM permalink
The BIG problem becomes the come out 4, which causes you to lose $200. Of course, you now have a good DP point, so you can lay 600 odds on your 100 DP bet, and should the 7 show, you win 100+300, minus the 200 you lost on the come out, for an overall profit of $200.
Of course, the shooter could make the point 4 which means you just lost -200-100-600= $900
Always borrow money from a pessimist; They don't expect to get paid back ! Be yourself and speak your thoughts. Those who matter won't mind, and those that mind, don't matter!
mkl654321
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October 12th, 2010 at 3:59:55 PM permalink
Quote: JimmyMac

I like to play the don't pass side of the craps table. However, the biggest challenge is simply getting past the come out roll. Once you have established a point, the odds are to your advantage that a 7 will come up before the point. What I am curious to know is how it would reduce the house edge if on the come out roll I layed the 4 or 10?

For example, if I placed $100 on the Don't Pass and then layed the 4 for $200, I am essentially taking the 7 out of the equation except for the 5% commission I must pay to the house for laying the 4. Then, when the point was rolled, I could simply place my Lay 4 on the off position and then sit back and wait for the 7 to come up. If I was worried about the 11 on the come out roll, I could place a $10.00 YO bet. With the 5% commission on the win and the $10 YO bet, I'm down $15.00 per roll before even starting. But, I have the edge on the point.

I know there is NO way to beat craps. I'm simply looking for a way to get past that dreaded come out roll when playing the Don't Pass.

I'd much rather lose $15.00 and have a chance of winning rather than lose $100 and not even make it on the board.

Anybody every tried this or have any thoughts?



First of all, if a 7 comes out, you will lose your Don't Pass bet regardless of whether you have made any other bets or not. So you cannot alter the outcome of that bet, and therefore, you cannot alter the house edge.

If you make a Lay bet on the 4 or 10, you will incur the house edge on that bet as well. Thus, by doing that, you INCREASE the house edge overall, because you are making more bets that have a house edge. Furthermore, the Lay bet has a higher house edge than the Don't Pass. So not only do you not help yourself with the Lay bet, you actually hurt yourself.

If you are uncomfortable with the fact that most come out rolls that give an immediate decision on the Pass/Don't Pass are losers for you, then maybe you should be making some other bet. After all, you will get your Don't bet immediately smacked down 8 out of 36 times, and only win 3 out of 36 times. It's especially fun, as you well know, to have the first four rolls be 7-7-11-7, and suddenly you're in a huge hole. But you should comfort yourself with the fact that you are, essentially, putting yourself in the same position as the house--and they make money!
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw
Ericayne
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October 12th, 2010 at 4:46:10 PM permalink
Quote: JimmyMac

Anybody ever tried this or have any thoughts?



Yes! When I used to play the dark side, this is EXACTLY the same method I would use to establish a DP bet (exact amounts wagered as well!) However, the situation that RaleighCraps mentions can (and will) happen from time to time. No avoiding this fact. There are times when your lay bet will remain untouched for a great while - and you'll have some really good days. There will also be days where your lay bet keeps getting taken down. It doesn't happen often...but it does happen. So you're going to need to figure out what other bets you can deploy around this betting strategy in order to sustain your bankroll.

Good luck!
SanchoPanza
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October 12th, 2010 at 5:14:59 PM permalink
Quote: Ericayne

No avoiding this fact.


One easy way to avoid the problem is to make a smaller initial bet and then lay odds up to that $100 sum.

goatcabin
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October 12th, 2010 at 7:34:21 PM permalink
Quote: mkl654321

First of all, if a 7 comes out, you will lose your Don't Pass bet regardless of whether you have made any other bets or not. So you cannot alter the outcome of that bet, and therefore, you cannot alter the house edge.

If you make a Lay bet on the 4 or 10, you will incur the house edge on that bet as well. Thus, by doing that, you INCREASE the house edge overall, because you are making more bets that have a house edge.



More specifically, you increase your expected loss, regardless of the house edge on any additional bet you might make to hedge the 7 and/or 11.
Since it's only the flat bet that takes the beating on the comeout, why not keep your line bet to a minimum and lay lots of odds? You reduce your expected loss by 14 cents for every $10 less you put on the DP line. For example, compare the $100 DP with $30 DP, laying double odds, for 60 bets:

----------ev SD avg. bet
$100 DP -$84 $774 $100
$30, 2X -$25 $673 $ 92


It's worth considering.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Woodland, CA
Cheers, Alan Shank "How's that for a squabble, Pugh?" Peter Boyle as Mister Moon in "Yellowbeard"
JimmyMac
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October 13th, 2010 at 2:29:57 PM permalink
You guys are great. I've never been one to like to play the odds bet because I usually have $100 on the point and have a hard time laying down another $200 on the odds. I know it reduces the house risk substantially. But, throwing down $300 a point can add up real quick when you hit a losing spell. I like the idea of simply putting a smaller amount on the come out roll. If I place $30 on the come out and then take double odds of $60.00, I've only got $90 per point working at a time. If I have this correct, I'll be wagering a total of $90.00 for a chance of winning 4/10 $60, 5/9 $70 and 6/8 $80. Do I have this correct under this scenario?

Next question - for you guys that play the dark side.

Do you find it better to simply get 1 point and sit back and wait for the roll to end? This can get really boring.

Are there any benefits or downsides to playing the Don't Pass and then a couple of Don't come bets and have a few numbers working at the same time? It's seems a little more exciting when you have a few numbers working at the same time. But, am I hurting myself by having these multiple numbers all working during a roll?

Thanks for all your comments.
SanchoPanza
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October 13th, 2010 at 2:47:16 PM permalink
Quote: JimmyMac

If I place $30 on the come out and then take double odds of $60.00, I've only got $90 per point working at a time. If I have this correct, I'll be wagering a total of $90.00 for a chance of winning 4/10 $60, 5/9 $70 and 6/8 $80. Do I have this correct under this scenario?


You would win $30 + $120 on 4/10, $30 + $105 on 5/9 and (taking $78 odds) $30 + $91. The payoffs improve and the risk lessens.

Quote: JimmyMac

Do you find it better to simply get 1 point and sit back and wait for the roll to end? This can get really boring. Are there any benefits or downsides to playing the Don't Pass and then a couple of Don't come bets and have a few numbers working at the same time? It's seems a little more exciting when you have a few numbers working at the same time. But, am I hurting myself by having these multiple numbers all working during a roll?



All sorts of theories abound how many numbers to be up on. One conservative approach limits it to two. Then there is always the question of whether to lay odds. Don't betting is by and large quieter and slower going. But you know who wins the race,right?
JimmyMac
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October 13th, 2010 at 3:03:37 PM permalink
Sorry Sancho, I posted my question incorrectly about the pay-outs. I play the don't side, so was wondering if I had the pay outs correct if I play the don't pass and then lay the odds.

The pass line is so much more fun to play because you have the entire table cheering. But, I can't help but think in the back of my mind that once a point is established, all the odds are in favor of the house.

Only bad part about playing the dark side is you find yourself sitting in a corner being all quiet trying not to attract too much attention to yourself.

But, it sure is a great feeling when you have a great number like 4 or 10.
appistappis
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October 13th, 2010 at 3:40:59 PM permalink
jimmymac, two things......first, yes you have the numbers correct in your first post.........second, there are a million 'systems' out there to play the don'ts and 'reduce the house advantage', they are all bullshit....if you want to play the don'ts a simple don't pass with as much lay odds as your bankroll will allow is the best way.
Doc
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October 13th, 2010 at 3:51:04 PM permalink
Quote: appistappis

....if you want to play the don'ts a simple don't pass with as much lay odds as your bankroll will allow is the best way.

I agree completely, so long as your definition of "best way" is "lowest house advantage". There are other factors that may affect the "best way" for many/some players. Maximizing odds bets will increase variance, which may be desirable or undesirable beyond a certain level for a particular player. Perhaps that is covered by your comment "as your bankroll will allow". Another factor is what the player might get out of the game other than the money won or lost. If a player values the entertainment, there may be greater entertainment value in having a variety of wagers. I believe JimmyMac's comment about limiting your game to don't pass plus odds was, "This can get really boring."
goatcabin
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October 13th, 2010 at 4:24:48 PM permalink
Quote: JimmyMac

You guys are great. I've never been one to like to play the odds bet because I usually have $100 on the point and have a hard time laying down another $200 on the odds. I know it reduces the house risk substantially. But, throwing down $300 a point can add up real quick when you hit a losing spell. I like the idea of simply putting a smaller amount on the come out roll. If I place $30 on the come out and then take double odds of $60.00, I've only got $90 per point working at a time. If I have this correct, I'll be wagering a total of $90.00 for a chance of winning 4/10 $60, 5/9 $70 and 6/8 $80. Do I have this correct under this scenario?



On the dark side, when you say "double odds", that refers to the amount to be WON, not the amount to be bet. So, with a $30 flat bet, you can lay $120 to win $60 on the 4/10, $90 to win $60 on 5/9 and $72 to win $60 on 6/8, plus, of course, your even-money $30 on the flat part. Of course, on the dark side, you have to lay the LONG end of the odds. My calculations were based on these amount. (Also, note that you "lay" the odds, not "take" the odds, a linguistic point.) If you always lay $60, you win $30, $40 and $50, as you say, plus the flat $30. In this case, it is easier, because you always lay $60, rather than differing amounts; the difference is that your average bet is about $72 (don't forget, 1/3 of DP bets are resolved on the comeout roll), and the standard deviation is $527 rather than $673. This means you will win and lose less, because the variance is lower. The expected loss does not change, as that is a function only of the flat bet.

Quote: JimmyMac

Next question - for you guys that play the dark side.

Do you find it better to simply get 1 point and sit back and wait for the roll to end? This can get really boring.

Are there any benefits or downsides to playing the Don't Pass and then a couple of Don't come bets and have a few numbers working at the same time? It's seems a little more exciting when you have a few numbers working at the same time. But, am I hurting myself by having these multiple numbers all working during a roll?



Don't forget that any Don't Come bet suffers from the same big disadvantage on ITS comeout roll. Also, don't forget that a Don't Come bet carries an expected loss. To minimize your expected loss, and the amount of money you subject to the "horrors" of the comeout 7/11, minimize you flat bets. Of course, as you say, it is more boring. Do you want to pay the extra "cost" for the excitement? It is really cool when you have a DP and one more more DCs, with odds, behind numbers and the shooter sevens out - you get paid on all your numbers. (If you have a new DC, it loses, of course.) OTOH, it can be painful when a shooter knocks those numbers off, with all your long-end odds, one by one.

Most places will allow you to lay 3, 4, 5X odds so:

flat $30, $180 odds to win $30, $90
flat $30, $180 odds to win $30, $120
flat $30, $180 odds to win $30, $150

This would result in the exact same $25 expected loss for 60 bets, but an average bet of $153 and a standard deviation of $1158, so you could experience some very wild swings. To summarize, for sessions of 60 bets (about two hours):

betting avg. bet ev SD
$100 DP $100 -$84 $774
$30 DP
$60 odds $71 -$25 $527
2X odds $92 -$25 $673
3,4,5X $153 -$25 $1158


Let's examine how these methods would compare, given different degrees of luck, good and bad. The probability of ending up a given number or fraction of a standard deviation better (or worse) than the expectation is always the same. So, compare:

method -2 SD -1 SD +1 SD +2 SD
$100 DP -$1634 -$858 +$690 +$1464
$30 DP, $60 odds -$1079 -$552 +$502 +$1029
$30 DP, 2X odds -$1371 -$698 +$648 +$1321
$30 DP, 3,4,5X odds -$2341 -$1183 +1133 +$2291


Because the $100 DP method has a significantly larger expected loss, it starts out with a larger "handicap". Since you can expect about 68% of session to fall between -1 and + 1 SD of the expectation, that additional $60 of expected loss will bite you often. The probability of coming out more than two standard deviations from the expectation, in either direction, is about .046.

-2+ SD -1+ SD ev +1 SD +2+ SD
.046 .112 .683 .112 .046


Keep in mind that, the higher the standard deviation, the more likely you are to bust any given bankroll amount, or the more bankroll you need to have the same probability of busting. This is called "risk of ruin". The other side of that coin is that, the higher the standard deviation, the less lucky you have to be to overcome the "handicap" of the expected loss, so the more likely you are to end up ahead for a session. Variance works both ways.

In my mind, the biggest drawback to laying odds is that you can lose a lot of money very quickly if you have bad luck on points early, since you're laying the long end of the odds. OTOH, that is relatively unlikely, since the DP is expected to win almost 60% of point decisions, overall.

If I were in your shoes, I would probably try the $30 flat, $60 odds first, as it's the least risky.
Good luck, whatever you do.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Woodland, CA
Cheers, Alan Shank "How's that for a squabble, Pugh?" Peter Boyle as Mister Moon in "Yellowbeard"
SanchoPanza
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October 13th, 2010 at 6:04:22 PM permalink
That's my fault from tossing around numbers on a long day. Sorry.
SanchoPanza
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October 13th, 2010 at 6:04:24 PM permalink
That's my fault from tossing around numbers on a long day. Sorry.
JimmyMac
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October 14th, 2010 at 7:35:53 AM permalink
Thanks Alan for your detailed information. I really do appreciate the feedback. From what I can tell, it sounds like the most logical bet is to simply play the pass line with full odds or the don't pass and lay full odds. Then, sit back and wait for the roll to end. Yes, I guess it is a little boring to sit with just 1 number on the table. But, an easy way to make it more exciting is to simply bet more money on that 1 roll. :-)

Craps is one of those games that I simply fell in love with because of the fast pace and excitement. But, after you play it for a while, you simply realize that it is a no win game. It's like in the movie "War Games" when the computer realizes that there is no reason to play because the only way to win it to simply not play the game.

Yes, there are some hot streaks and you can make money if you hit the table at the right time and then quit a winner.

My problem is I'm stuck in Vegas for 4 days and can't keep myself away from the damn table. My whole goal is to simply have fun and make a little bit of money.

Now, I'm simply looking for a conservative way to play that will allow me a little excitement and reduce my risk.

All of the feeback I have received here has shown me what I need to do.

Thanks everyone for your comments.
mkl654321
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October 15th, 2010 at 6:28:51 PM permalink
Quote: JimmyMac

Thanks Alan for your detailed information. I really do appreciate the feedback. From what I can tell, it sounds like the most logical bet is to simply play the pass line with full odds or the don't pass and lay full odds. Then, sit back and wait for the roll to end. Yes, I guess it is a little boring to sit with just 1 number on the table. But, an easy way to make it more exciting is to simply bet more money on that 1 roll. :-)

Craps is one of those games that I simply fell in love with because of the fast pace and excitement. But, after you play it for a while, you simply realize that it is a no win game. It's like in the movie "War Games" when the computer realizes that there is no reason to play because the only way to win it to simply not play the game.

Yes, there are some hot streaks and you can make money if you hit the table at the right time and then quit a winner.

My problem is I'm stuck in Vegas for 4 days and can't keep myself away from the damn table. My whole goal is to simply have fun and make a little bit of money.

Now, I'm simply looking for a conservative way to play that will allow me a little excitement and reduce my risk.

All of the feeback I have received here has shown me what I need to do.

Thanks everyone for your comments.



The killer about craps is that the decisions come so fast. If you want to stretch your bankroll, you either have to find low limits, or low frequency of decisions. Low house advantage is another consideration, of course.

Nickel denomination video poker is a good game to play on a limited bankroll. You will be playing at .25/hand with a house advantage of 1-3% (depending on the game and the paytable), and you can go as fast or as slow as you want. The drinks are free, and you earn slot club points (get a slot card). Even a few dollars' action will get you room offers in the mail.

Pai gow poker is a wonderful bankroll-stretcher. The house PC is low--a little over 2%. The game is slow--a decision takes a couple of minutes or more. Best of all--half the hands are pushes! Minimums are $5-10.

The best value of all is a sports bet. It takes HOURS to resolve such a bet, while you recline in a comfy chair and root for your team. The minimum for a straight bet is $5, and a parlay card, $2, so you can get plenty of bang for your buck. And as long as you're in the sports book and have a live ticket, the drinks are free..

I've budgeted $100 for a day of gambling playing the above games, and ALWAYS managed to play the entire day, and had a good time to boot.
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw
Yoyomama
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October 16th, 2010 at 3:19:39 AM permalink
The Wizard puts the House Advantage at 1.41% vs 1.36% for the Pass vs Don't Pass. Others say it's less. So the house gets an extra nickel for every $100 you bet. Is a .05% advantage that big of a deal to make you a Wrong better? I am a right better, and bet pass line and come bets (both with full odds). Nothing else. And I have plenty of fun. I love watching all the players bet the sucker bets and I love it when they win. It's fun!! But not with my money.

I take gambling seriously and read 3 books on craps before I rolled my first come out. But I like having fun too. Table goes to the dark side, I go to lunch or play BJ. No one has made a good case to me for being a wrong better. It's certainly a legitimate bet with a tiny tiny advantage, so knock yourself out. And the OP is correct, wrong betters are considered kill joys to the overwhelming number of us right betters.

All these get rich schemes/systems are funny too. The way you win is to make the BEST bets available and GET LUCKY. And most importantly, walk when you're ahead. Good luck!!
boymimbo
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October 16th, 2010 at 6:57:46 AM permalink
There's nothing wrong with being a wrong better except for the negative stigma you bring to the table. But your don't pass bet doesn't affect the dice or its outcome in anyway. If you're betting don't and making money and the right ways are not, who goes home happy?

Anyway, the problem with laying 4 on the comeout is the commission you have to pay which increases the HA overall. With the don't pass, you lose your DP bet on the 7 and 11. On the lay 4, you lose twice the amount of money (plus commission) 1/2 the time (assuming you put double the amount on the 4 to cover the 7 entirely). Essentially, you are moving your risk from the 7 to the 4. In any case, the casino's got you.

I've seen don't players essentially play the same system as the pass players where they will put a couple of bets on DC as well. I've seen some hedge their DC with hardways bets and place bets in the right direction as well.
----- You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
mkl654321
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October 16th, 2010 at 9:32:20 AM permalink
Quote: Yoyomama

The Wizard puts the House Advantage at 1.41% vs 1.36% for the Pass vs Don't Pass. Others say it's less. So the house gets an extra nickel for every $100 you bet. Is a .05% advantage that big of a deal to make you a Wrong better? I am a right better, and bet pass line and come bets (both with full odds). Nothing else. And I have plenty of fun. I love watching all the players bet the sucker bets and I love it when they win. It's fun!! But not with my money.

I take gambling seriously and read 3 books on craps before I rolled my first come out. But I like having fun too. Table goes to the dark side, I go to lunch or play BJ. No one has made a good case to me for being a wrong better. It's certainly a legitimate bet with a tiny tiny advantage, so knock yourself out. And the OP is correct, wrong betters are considered kill joys to the overwhelming number of us right betters.

All these get rich schemes/systems are funny too. The way you win is to make the BEST bets available and GET LUCKY. And most importantly, walk when you're ahead. Good luck!!



You DO realize that there are wrong bettors on every table--the dealers, the boxman, the stickman, the floorman, and the guy upstairs in the suit who owns the crap table and keeps the lights lit---don't you? They want you to lose. They are there to make sure that you DO lose. In contrast, one or two guys betting the Don't Pass are trivial. They don't, and can't, affect my bet in any way, so why bother noticing them?

There is an important function that Don't bettors and the Don't bet perform that you may be overlooking---they keep the game honest. After all, if the house was screwing the players over, it would be simple just to switch to the Don't and make a killing. 19th-century crap tables in saloons and casinos didn't HAVE the option to bet the Don't--that evolved as casinos became more legitimate in the 1930s.
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw
focd
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October 16th, 2010 at 6:58:40 PM permalink
Quote: mkl654321

You DO realize that there are wrong bettors on every table--the dealers, the boxman, the stickman, the floorman, and the guy upstairs in the suit who owns the crap table and keeps the lights lit---don't you? They want you to lose. They are there to make sure that you DO lose. In contrast, one or two guys betting the Don't Pass are trivial. They don't, and can't, affect my bet in any way, so why bother noticing them?

There is an important function that Don't bettors and the Don't bet perform that you may be overlooking---they keep the game honest. After all, if the house was screwing the players over, it would be simple just to switch to the Don't and make a killing. 19th-century crap tables in saloons and casinos didn't HAVE the option to bet the Don't--that evolved as casinos became more legitimate in the 1930s.


Since we are on this very same topic of the wrong bettors, what the %*#&%$#% is wrong with betting on the don'ts? I seriously have heard 3 dealers tell me it is confusing when people switch to bet on the don'ts. I'm starting to suspect they DISLIKE the don't bettors because if they are winning, then that means the table is empty and the dealers won't get much tip for their work since no one is playing. It starts me make me feel uncomfortable playing the don'ts. Has anyone had this experience before?
boymimbo
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October 16th, 2010 at 10:56:39 PM permalink
Quote: mkl654321

You DO realize that there are wrong bettors on every table--the dealers, the boxman, the stickman, the floorman, and the guy upstairs in the suit who owns the crap table and keeps the lights lit---don't you? They want you to lose. They are there to make sure that you DO lose. In contrast, one or two guys betting the Don't Pass are trivial. They don't, and can't, affect my bet in any way, so why bother noticing them?



Technically, the only people who want you to lose are the casino owners and their shareholders. Dealers want tips. Betting the wrong way doesn't guarantee a win because of the lonely boxcars where the don't player pushes (does not win). The house has an advantage on every bet at the table.
----- You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
odiousgambit
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October 17th, 2010 at 5:16:47 AM permalink
it's remarkable that the push on boxcars alone, as a deviation from what the house gets, is enough to change the EV as much as it does. It just pushes on that bet, you keep your money, yet that is enough.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
mkl654321
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October 18th, 2010 at 2:55:02 PM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

it's remarkable that the push on boxcars alone, as a deviation from what the house gets, is enough to change the EV as much as it does. It just pushes on that bet, you keep your money, yet that is enough.



I used to think so, until I realized that once out of 36 times, you are losing an entire bet--and 1/36 is 0.02777; enough to negate what would otherwise be a 1.41% advantage to the player, and saddle him with just about the same numerical disadvantage, to boot.

I think it's actually fortuitous that this number just about exactly reverses the house advantage. If Don't betting carried a substantially lower house advantage than Pass Line betting, then there would be more people at the table on the dark side, which would probably lead to the casinos not offering that bet at all, because of the "disharmony" that having half of the people on the table cheering for one outcome and half cheering for the opposite would create. It would also be hard to imagine the casino allowing free odds bets on the Don't if the house advantage on the Don't was, say, 0.7%.
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw
mkl654321
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October 18th, 2010 at 2:58:14 PM permalink
Quote: boymimbo

Technically, the only people who want you to lose are the casino owners and their shareholders. Dealers want tips. Betting the wrong way doesn't guarantee a win because of the lonely boxcars where the don't player pushes (does not win). The house has an advantage on every bet at the table.



The employees want you to TEMPORARILY win (because they want tokes) and ULTIMATELY lose (because they wouldn't have a job if people didn't lose in the long run). Have you ever noticed how dealers overemphasize short-term player wins? You cash out up $800 and they congratulate you profusely, then look at you expectantly. Of course, you are well aware that you lost $1000 yesterday.
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw
appistappis
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October 18th, 2010 at 5:37:30 PM permalink
I would say that in all my years in the industry, the amount of casino emplyoee's that I've run across who 'want you to lose' is very small, less than 5%.
mkl654321
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October 18th, 2010 at 6:17:30 PM permalink
Quote: appistappis

I would say that in all my years in the industry, the amount of casino emplyoee's that I've run across who 'want you to lose' is very small, less than 5%.



That might be the number who ADMIT it.

I worked in casinos for eight years, and I definitely knew if people ever started consistently winning, I wouldn't have a job. My wages were paid with people's losses.
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw
boymimbo
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October 18th, 2010 at 6:54:05 PM permalink
Of course. But the employees personally probably want to see YOU win. Collectively, they want everyone to lose.
----- You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
focd
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October 18th, 2010 at 8:10:06 PM permalink
Quote: mkl654321

The employees want you to TEMPORARILY win (because they want tokes) and ULTIMATELY lose (because they wouldn't have a job if people didn't lose in the long run).


I will have to disagree. Of course they want people to win ALL THE TIME. However, this isn't possible for players to win in the long run. That's why they don't have to worry about people winning all the time. The time I see them wanting people to possibly lose or not win so much is if some player comes in and makes WAY TOO MUCH money. That way the pit boss starts to sweat and the dealer might get nervous.
goatcabin
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October 19th, 2010 at 2:05:59 PM permalink
Quote: JimmyMac

Thanks Alan for your detailed information. I really do appreciate the feedback. From what I can tell, it sounds like the most logical bet is to simply play the pass line with full odds or the don't pass and lay full odds. Then, sit back and wait for the roll to end. Yes, I guess it is a little boring to sit with just 1 number on the table. But, an easy way to make it more exciting is to simply bet more money on that 1 roll. :-)



In fact, you get more variance by making just a passline bet than by breaking it up into pass and come bets. Why? Because there are more ways two bets can be resolved than one bet. The key is that the standard deviation goes up with the SQUARE ROOT of the number of bets, while the expected loss goes up with the number of bets. So,

$10 pass, 20 bets - ev is -$2.83, standard deviation is $44.68
$5 pass, 20 bets, $5 come, 20 bets - ev is -$2.83, but SD is $37.94

Always remember, variance works both ways - you have a slightly better chance of breaking even or better, you win more when you're luck, but you lose more when you're unlucky.

Quote: JimmyMac

Craps is one of those games that I simply fell in love with because of the fast pace and excitement. But, after you play it for a while, you simply realize that it is a no win game. It's like in the movie "War Games" when the computer realizes that there is no reason to play because the only way to win it to simply not play the game.



That is not true. What is true is that the casinos, taken as a whole, will win, and the players, taken as a whole, will lose, but some players, simply due to positive variance, will win, even over a lifetime's play.

Quote: JimmyMac

My problem is I'm stuck in Vegas for 4 days and can't keep myself away from the damn table. My whole goal is to simply have fun and make a little bit of money.

Now, I'm simply looking for a conservative way to play that will allow me a little excitement and reduce my risk.

All of the feeback I have received here has shown me what I need to do.



If your goal is to play conservatively and not lose much, then you might reconsider taking/laying odds. The most conservative way to play is to bet the minimum on the pass or don't pass, because it'a an even money bet with *almost* an even chance to win. Your outcome does not depend on the order of wins and losses, just the overall W-L net. OTOH, it's boring. Only you can decide whether the additional excitement/fun is worth the greater risk.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Woodland, CA
Cheers, Alan Shank "How's that for a squabble, Pugh?" Peter Boyle as Mister Moon in "Yellowbeard"
goatcabin
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October 19th, 2010 at 2:14:06 PM permalink
Quote: mkl654321

The killer about craps is that the decisions come so fast. If you want to stretch your bankroll, you either have to find low limits, or low frequency of decisions. Low house advantage is another consideration, of course.



Well, at least the line bets don't go as fast as the Field or other one-roll bets. In fact, sometimes it seems to take forever to resolve that pass bet, while the shooter rolls number after number, but not the point or seven. At 100 rolls/hr., you will average about 30 passline resolutions. At a $10 table, you have only about one chance in three of losing $40 or more; or, you have almost an 80% chance of not losing MORE than $40.

The Field bet is kind of attractive to beginners (if it pays triple on 2 or 12), because it's resolved immediately and it doesn't have that confusing two-part nature that the line bets have. OTOH, because it's resolved every roll, you can lose fast. OTOOH, you don't have to bet every roll.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Woodland, CA
Cheers, Alan Shank "How's that for a squabble, Pugh?" Peter Boyle as Mister Moon in "Yellowbeard"
goatcabin
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October 19th, 2010 at 2:27:47 PM permalink
Quote: Yoyomama

The Wizard puts the House Advantage at 1.41% vs 1.36% for the Pass vs Don't Pass. Others say it's less.



No, others say it's more, 1.403%. The expected loss for the DP is one unit fewer out of 1980 bets than for the pass, -27 units vs. -28. The difference in HA is due to some people including the push in the denominator, others not.

pass 28 / 1980 = .01414
DP 27 / 1980 = .01364
DP 27 / 1925 = .01403
The difference is the 55 times out of 1980 that you expect the push 12 (or 2). In any case, the ev is the same. I don't count the push, because the bet is not resolved.


Quote: Yoyomama

I take gambling seriously and read 3 books on craps before I rolled my first come out.



I've never seen a book about craps that goes much beyond the HA - i.e. the better bets are those with a low HA. Variance is not treated except very vaguely in talking about session bankrolls. It's a huge failing of craps authors, in my view.

Quote: Yoyomama

All these get rich schemes/systems are funny too. The way you win is to make the BEST bets available and GET LUCKY. And most importantly, walk when you're ahead. Good luck!!



So, if you win the first bet, do you walk? No? The second bet? How far ahead is far enough? At any point in time, your future expectation is negative, but you hope to be lucky. Also, of course, sometimes you never get ahead.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Woodland, CA
Cheers, Alan Shank "How's that for a squabble, Pugh?" Peter Boyle as Mister Moon in "Yellowbeard"
goatcabin
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October 19th, 2010 at 2:34:51 PM permalink
Quote: focd

Since we are on this very same topic of the wrong bettors, what the %*#&%$#% is wrong with betting on the don'ts? I seriously have heard 3 dealers tell me it is confusing when people switch to bet on the don'ts. I'm starting to suspect they DISLIKE the don't bettors because if they are winning, then that means the table is empty and the dealers won't get much tip for their work since no one is playing. It starts me make me feel uncomfortable playing the don'ts. Has anyone had this experience before?



Well, if the table is going against the "right" bettors, it doesn't matter whether you are there betting the don'ts or not, does it? If the rightside players leave, at least you're there making some bets.

The only time I played from the "darkside", I bet the don't come after a point was established. It's not as obvious, because it's off in a corner and it's not the comeout roll, so you're not directly in opposition to the pass bet. The dealer on my end didn't bat an eye, and he made all the correct payouts. I was lucky in that there were very few 7/11s on my comeout roll.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Woodland, CA
Cheers, Alan Shank "How's that for a squabble, Pugh?" Peter Boyle as Mister Moon in "Yellowbeard"
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