Geo
Geo
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January 1st, 2018 at 9:33:31 AM permalink
Hi All,

Love all the threads I've been reading and I couldn't find an exact answer to the predicament I find myself in.

Having no friends who know anything about gambling I'm hoping to get an answer to my question from you pros.

Im planning on going for DiaD/2 days in a.c playing 9/6 JoB (yes I know 2018 Diamond perks got a punch to the face).

As most of you know, in A.C you can't find a 1/10 TC JoB anymore. The best you can find is 1/20...

With that said, I would need 100k coin-in now to hit the 5k tier +10k bonus. If I'm playing $5 a pull and averaging 500 pulls that's 20 hours which to me is not going to happen in one day. I know I could split it into two days as well.

The question I have is if I'm playing $10 a pull to half my time, what kind of bank roll should I have?

At the $5 pull I was going to bring 5k with me but will my RoR be ridiculously high if I have that same roll for $10 a pull?

I leave in two days to A.C and would love to hear some of your expert opinions.

Thanks so much in advance I really appreciate.

Happy New Year!
100xOdds
100xOdds
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January 1st, 2018 at 1:35:23 PM permalink
this is what I have for DiaD @ $2 denom :
1) JoB(10credits)
variance 19.51
st dev 4.417012565
OriginalSD 44.17012565
sd(5k hands) 3123.299537
ev -230

2) JoB(10credits @$20coin-in/tc)
variance 19.51
st dev 4.417012565
OriginalSD 44.17012565
sd(10k hands) 4417.012565
ev -460

so @ $2 denom for $20 per tier credit, it's -$460 +/- $4417 for DiaD.
I think it's 1 sd(?) aka 68% of the time it'll be between -$4877 and $3957.
Last edited by: 100xOdds on Jan 1, 2018
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
CrystalMath
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January 1st, 2018 at 2:02:15 PM permalink
For a $1 denom and $5000 bankroll, your ROR is about 2.53%.
For a $2 denom and $5000 bankroll, your ROR is about 10.42%.

For a $2 denom and $6000 bankroll, your ROR is 3.58%.
For a $2 denom and $7000 bankroll, your ROR is 0.945%

This does not include any cash back. All numbers are based on a simulation of single line, 5 credit bet on 9/6 jacks.
I heart Crystal Math.
Geo
Geo
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January 1st, 2018 at 2:05:20 PM permalink
Thank you so much for the quick reply and the information!

I honestly dont understand much when it comes to standard deviations and such.

Is there an easy way to determine what bank roll I would need @ $10 a pull to keep my RoR at less than 95%?

Thanks so much again I really appreciate the help!
Geo
Geo
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January 1st, 2018 at 2:08:32 PM permalink
CrystalMath,

That is some great information as well!!!!

So, if I'm doing $10 pulls with a 6k bank roll my ROR is 3.58% if pulling until 5k TC @ 1/20TC?

Am I interpreting that correctly?

Thanks!
CrystalMath
CrystalMath
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January 1st, 2018 at 2:13:25 PM permalink
Quote: Geo

CrystalMath,

That is some great information as well!!!!

So, if I'm doing $10 pulls with a 6k bank roll my ROR is 3.58% if pulling until 5k TC @ 1/20TC?

Am I interpreting that correctly?

Thanks!



Yes. You're welcome.
I heart Crystal Math.
Geo
Geo
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January 1st, 2018 at 2:48:21 PM permalink
Wonderful, thank you so much again; I really appreciate the help!
100xOdds
100xOdds
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January 1st, 2018 at 3:42:37 PM permalink
Quote: CrystalMath

For a $1 denom and $5000 bankroll, your ROR is about 2.53%.
For a $2 denom and $5000 bankroll, your ROR is about 10.42%.

For a $2 denom and $6000 bankroll, your ROR is 3.58%.
For a $2 denom and $7000 bankroll, your ROR is 0.945%

This does not include any cash back. All numbers are based on a simulation of single line, 5 credit bet on 9/6 jacks.


10.42% RoR for $5k bankroll?
I would have thought it was near 16% since 1 sd (68%) is -$4877.
(1-.68)/ 2 = 16%

how do you convert sd to RoR?
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
mustangsally
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January 1st, 2018 at 4:46:06 PM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

10.42% RoR for $5k bankroll?
I would have thought it was near 16% since 1 sd (68%) is -$4877.
(1-.68)/ 2 = 16%

how do you convert sd to RoR?

vp for winners in my machine shows a 10.44% chance of ruin.
using
sd for ruin calcs for vp is really meaningless under 100k hands,imo and others
since the distribution is not normal.

this has been brought up many times b4 here and on the net too

that would make it too easy for all to calc.

Sally
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ahiromu
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January 1st, 2018 at 5:12:26 PM permalink
This is something I need to relearn every time I ask a similar question. I'm not going to do the math.. seems like people here have done that for you, but I tend to use the following resources:

https://wizardofodds.com/games/video-poker/appendix/3/

http://www.jazbo.com/videopoker/nplay.html

They're based around multiplay, but the math works out of n=1.
Its - Possessive; It's - "It is" / "It has"; There - Location; Their - Possessive; They're - "They are"
GWAE
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January 1st, 2018 at 5:17:09 PM permalink
Is there a game that is close to ev but still the 10$ a point machine? You might be better giving up a little ev for less coin in.
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
100xOdds
100xOdds
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January 1st, 2018 at 5:29:30 PM permalink
Quote: GWAE

Is there a game that is close to ev but still the 10$ a point machine? You might be better giving up a little ev for less coin in.

why?
time saved?

and yes, there's 9/6 ddb (99%) @ $10/tier point at Harrahs AC.
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
Geo
Geo
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January 1st, 2018 at 5:38:51 PM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

why?
time saved?

and yes, there's 9/6 ddb (99%) @ $10/tier point at Harrahs AC.



Thank you everyone for the high level engagement!

I didnt see the game you mentioned on VP for Harrahs.

I could totally be reading it incorrectly as well.

Here is the link from the site that I was viewing:

/casino/harrahs-atlantic-city

Thanks again!
Geo
Geo
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January 1st, 2018 at 5:40:44 PM permalink
Thanks Ahi!

I have seen this table for and unfortunately it may as well be sandscript to me.

I do not understand how to read it so I do apologize to everyone who is interpreting for me and doing the math.

I appreciate all of the help!
100xOdds
100xOdds
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January 1st, 2018 at 6:03:36 PM permalink
Quote: Geo

Thank you everyone for the high level engagement!

I didnt see the game you mentioned on VP for Harrahs.

I could totally be reading it incorrectly as well.

Here is the link from the site that I was viewing:

/casino/harrahs-atlantic-city

Thanks again!

http://www.vpfree2.com/casino/harrahs-atlantic-city
Third carousel down from Total Rewards booth w/"World Series of Poker" sign

it's a carousel of around 10 machines in a circle,
hm.. they are $1 denom max will take you about 9hrs to get 2500 tc points.
note: variance is HIGH @ 42!
but you should be able to ride it out doing $50k coin-in @ $1 denom over 2 days.


now if you're a gambler, you can try 'deal draw tdb' at the 5star machines near the Ultimate X machines near the bathroom.
return is 99.22% and is $10/tier credit.
but variance is 85!
with only $50k coin-in DiaD, you're probably going to be ahead or behind big time, depending whether or not you hit quads with kicker!
aka feast or famine.

strategy:
https://wizardofodds.com/games/video-poker/strategy/a-1-b-120-c-1-d-0-d-1-d-1-d-2-d-4-d-7-d-9-d-50-d-80-d-160-d-400-d-800-d-50-d-800/
Last edited by: 100xOdds on Jan 1, 2018
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
mustangsally
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January 1st, 2018 at 6:25:38 PM permalink
Quote: GWAE

Is there a game that is close to ev but still the 10$ a point machine? You might be better giving up a little ev for less coin in.

a baccarat machine or craps comes to mind. sd about 1 or less for basic bet. i know they are in SoCal
Sally
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100xOdds
100xOdds
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January 1st, 2018 at 6:28:34 PM permalink
Quote: mustangsally

a baccarat machine or craps comes to mind. sd about 1 or less for basic bet. i know they are in SoCal
Sally

wait.. Harrah's Resort Southern California has e-Craps @ 10/tc?!?!?!
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
mustangsally
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January 1st, 2018 at 9:03:45 PM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

wait.. Harrah's Resort Southern California has e-Craps @ 10/tc?!?!?!

I never seen it.
They must have put it in the last 2 years since I been there.
I would call there and ask for the pit. They are nice to talk with.
I Will be there 3 days starting Feb 6th (after superbowl)

Happy New Year
Sally
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GWAE
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January 1st, 2018 at 9:51:19 PM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

why?
time saved?

and yes, there's 9/6 ddb (99%) @ $10/tier point at Harrahs AC.



Just without doing any math because I am lazy. Was thinking if you get a 99.x game with 50k coin you might save money over a 100k coin in game. EV is better on the better game but you need more coin in.
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
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