GWAE
Joined: Sep 20, 2013
• Posts: 6224
March 22nd, 2017 at 10:06:33 AM permalink
I think OP is confusing odds and EV. The odds of hitting the slot on a fair wheel is 1/38, however the EV is completely different since the multiplier is random, right? Not sure how the multiplier works, does it just pop up and that is random? If that is the case the key is 1/38 but the multiplier would be weighted. The 20x might hit 95% of the time and the 100x hit .10 % of the time. Just like most slots it would be near impossible to figure the EV since you don't know what the weights are. Game could still be +ev or it could be 75% return rate, not real sure how you would ever tell unless they tell you the odds of hitting each multiplier.
beachbumbabs
Joined: May 21, 2013
• Posts: 9232
March 22nd, 2017 at 10:25:05 AM permalink
Quote: GWAE

I think OP is confusing odds and EV. The odds of hitting the slot on a fair wheel is 1/38, however the EV is completely different since the multiplier is random, right? Not sure how the multiplier works, does it just pop up and that is random? If that is the case the key is 1/38 but the multiplier would be weighted. The 20x might hit 95% of the time and the 100x hit .10 % of the time. Just like most slots it would be near impossible to figure the EV since you don't know what the weights are. Game could still be +ev or it could be 75% return rate, not real sure how you would ever tell unless they tell you the odds of hitting each multiplier.

Beat me to it. I think this is exactly what's happening, with maybe a pyramid of values that are then chosen randomly.

Let's say, out of 10 choices, there are seeded

4 @20 x
3 @35x
2@50x
1 @ 100x

The mean return on hitting this would be about 38.5x rtp, assuming equal weight on those 10 options.

Hitting the key slot would have the 1 in 38 chance, but the subroutine would have the additional variance.

No way of knowing if this is their framework, but it's logical to think so. They could do many more than 10 options in whatever proportion they wanted, to adjust the rtp. In itself, it could be +ev (the 40.xx rtp the op mentioned), but diluted by the 1/38 chance of hitting it, the game would remain -ev.
"If the house lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game."
Romes
Joined: Jul 22, 2014
• Posts: 4284
March 22nd, 2017 at 10:58:44 AM permalink
Quote: Canyonero

...What kind of gambler's fallacy is that?...

Not a gamblers fallacy at all, in fact not even close to a similar idea? The topic in regard is the weighted slots on a roulette wheel where it's very common tongue to equate a "fair" wheel (in which each slot has the same likely hood of hitting) to a "random" wheel.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
CrystalMath
Joined: May 10, 2011
• Posts: 1491
March 22nd, 2017 at 11:14:28 AM permalink
Do the rules state the RTP of the other bets?
I heart Crystal Math.
charliepatrick
Joined: Jun 17, 2011