KO in Vegas

Using KO full indices for SD or DD several months now. Learned HiLo 20yrs ago but rarely played. Several questions:

1. on positive counts, I change to two hands, example 2x and 2x instead of one hand of 4x on +4 count . Count drops, back to one hand. Avg player says this 'messes up the cards'. Oddly, I think it might. 'Clumping' or patterns are created by hand shuffling and how dealer picks up cards. This may also be not getting to DD/split one of the two hands, just decreases my variance. Thoughts?

2. is there any count making the 20 side bet worth it: 4 to 1 for any two card 20, higher pay out for specific 20s like QHQH pays 1000 to 1 etc. Someone said at +5, but I think its much higher since getting a 20 is about 10%.

3. Hand shuffling seems to increase variance and mitigates counting, wide swings of all big then all small etc. When auto shuffled after a cut card, I win more with worse rules. Thoughts?

4. Seen harsh criticism of KO despite qfit's very high marks. Overrated? I find it ok with a 1-5 spread, SD or DD. When Id bet 5-10 units at counts of 8-10 on SD or DD I was punished and did not like the variance. I play with $100 on $5 tables only. Im willing to lose $500 over several hours in a nite only, hwich occurs less than monthly. Or it becomes 'real gambling'.

5. Its not a thrill to win $500 a nite, but sickens me to lose $500. I think this is because I fundamentally think gambling is frivolous. IVe never placed any other wager. I avg $100-200/wk playing maybe 3-5 hours. This is less than 1/10 my actual income. I mostly play to socialize in a new city, recuperating from injury/illness. [Problem is its only gamblers in the casino haha.] Anyway, this seems like 'beating the odds'. Ive never been more than $500 in the hole before making it up by short sessions, wonging, and quit when up $50-100 until Im 'even'. I never count winnings, only the hole. Is this good, avg, boring results or what?

6. I dont mask that Im counting. I spread 1-5 and wong out casually. I do get angry when losing, so it makes it look like I lose a lot, but this is not 'intentional'. I just dont think they care since its $5 tables. This is another reason I wont move up to $25. Has anyone else seen this?

7. How do you add an ace side count to KO black jack?

8. Are there more indices than the 'full' table in book?

9. At high counts, why isnt even money on A10 v A a good bet- or did wizard mean for non counters? If insurance at 3+ is the best yield in KO, then seems like even money for BJ at +3 is just as good.

10. Any good data for splitting 10s vs 4, 5 or 6? DD on A8 or A9 vs 5 or 6? Doubling vs splitting 4s vs 5 or 6? I consider at +4 or so like many guys, but want data.

11. Last, on a few occasions Ive been propositioned by female players to leave the table to see their room or something. What is the best way without feelings getting hurt to say "not now its a +8 count?"

Thats a year of questions in one thread! Thanks for any input.

Quote: reuben71

1.Avg player says this 'messes up the cards'. Oddly, I think it might. 'Clumping' or patterns are created by hand shuffling and how dealer picks up cards. Thoughts?

Unless someone at the table is card tracking, or the hand shuffling is really rubbish, I cannot see how it would make any effective difference.

Quote: reuben71

2. is there any count making the 20 side bet worth it:

Dunno.

Quote: reuben71

3. Hand shuffling seems to increase variance and mitigates counting, wide swings of all big then all small etc. When auto shuffled after a cut card, I win more with worse rules. Thoughts?

Back to point 1. I think you are seeing a pattern that is not there: Nothing more than normal variance.

Quote: reuben71

4. Seen harsh criticism of KO despite qfit's very high marks. Overrated?

It's a simple count. You get what you pay for. Personally, I reckon Hi-lo is worth the extra effort, in as much as counting can ever be worth the effort. If you are finding good sd or dd games, you might as well exploit them to the max. But variance and ROR go with the territory. How would you handle being 10K down over a bad few consecutive sessions?

Quote: reuben71

5. Its not a thrill to win $500 a nite, but sickens me to lose $500.

That sounds bad, and like a very bad sign of something.

Quote: reuben71

Ive never been more than $500 in the hole before making it up by short sessions, wonging, and quit when up $50-100 until Im 'even'.

Finding yourself ever having to play catch-up is a bad symptom. You either have a winning game or you don't. If Wonging is how you catch-up lost money, ask yourself why didn't you win with wonging in the first place?
It's a bit like me saying that when I'm £200 down, I strive to make it up with a few aggressive £25 or £50 hands. Often it works, but I'm not kidding myself.

Quote: reuben71

I do get angry when losing, so it makes it look like I lose a lot, but this is not 'intentional'.

If you are genuinely getting angry when you lose, but don't get excited when you win, then you are heading to a dark place. Take care. Either care equally or don't care at all. ( I'm in the latter camp )

Quote: reuben71

7. How do you add an ace side count to KO black jack?

Why make life hard. just use Hi-Low or some better count.

Quote: reuben71

9. At high counts, why isn't even money on A10 v A a good bet- or did wizard mean for non counters?

Even money is a good bet when more than 1/3 of remaining cards are 10 value. That roughly coincides with 3+ . . . but it's not exact unless you are specifically side counting 10s.

Quote: reuben71

11. Last, on a few occasions Ive been propositioned by female players to leave the table to see their room or something. What is the best way without feelings getting hurt to say "not now its a +8 count?"

You could say, 'Be right with you, I just need to win a little more' :o)

Quote: reuben71

1. on positive counts, I change to two hands, example 2x and 2x instead of one hand of 4x on +4 count . Count drops, back to one hand. Avg player says this 'messes up the cards'. Oddly, I think it might. 'Clumping' or patterns are created by hand shuffling and how dealer picks up cards. This may also be not getting to DD/split one of the two hands, just decreases my variance. Thoughts?

This is a serious error in thinking. I would stop trying to make money playing blackjack until you can understand why.

There are good reasons to sometimes not spread to two hands or go from two back to one, but they have to do with drawing attention to oneself and occasionally trying to squeeze an extra round out of a good count.

Hi reuben, and welcome to the forums!

(These will also appear later in my responses, but I wanted you to have a quick link to them here... Read on before checking these out)
https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/A-to-Z-Counting-Cards-in-Blackjack/
https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/A-to-Z-Counting-Cards-In-Blackjack-2/
https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/A-to-Z-Counting-Cards-in-Blackjack-3/

Quote: reuben71

Using KO full indices for SD or DD several months now. Learned HiLo 20yrs ago but rarely played. Several questions:

1. on positive counts, I change to two hands, example 2x and 2x instead of one hand of 4x on +4 count . Count drops, back to one hand. Avg player says this 'messes up the cards'. Oddly, I think it might. 'Clumping' or patterns are created by hand shuffling and how dealer picks up cards. This may also be not getting to DD/split one of the two hands, just decreases my variance. Thoughts?

This is 100% ploppy nonsense. If you know the order of the cards then you should be a millionaire, but the simple matter is they are shuffled to be random and no one knows what order they're coming out in. Taking an extra hand/hit or staying when you shouldn't is just as likely to help the rest of the table as hurt it. In the long run, it literally doesn't have any effect on the game (whether you do this or another person at the table does something). Other player shave ZERO effect on you, in the long run.... other than slowing down your hands per hour perhaps =).

Quote: reuben71

2. is there any count making the 20 side bet worth it: 4 to 1 for any two card 20, higher pay out for specific 20s like QHQH pays 1000 to 1 etc. Someone said at +5, but I think its much higher since getting a 20 is about 10%.

Hi/Low has an index for the Lucky Ladies side bet of TC +6.5. If you use the Tens count this will more accurately reflect the proper time to bet it. There's plenty of research on beating the Lucky Lady side bet, simply google and you'll get all the info you'll need.

Quote: reuben71

3. Hand shuffling seems to increase variance and mitigates counting, wide swings of all big then all small etc. When auto shuffled after a cut card, I win more with worse rules. Thoughts?

100% erroneous. So long as they have a "fair" shuffle it doesn't matter and the cards are random (which I've seen 1 casino in my time that had a weak shuffle... which was good because it was something I attacked). Humans have a thing called confirmation bias. We want to believe what our gut tells us regardless of the truth/fact/math. This is why there are some idiots in the world that STILL think vaccines cause autism, even though there's an overwhelming amount of data and the scientific community that reject (and laugh at) this notion. You remember winning with shufflers because you want to believe there's a bias to them, but there is not. So long as the casino has a fair shuffle the cards are considered randomized.

Quote: reuben71

4. Seen harsh criticism of KO despite qfit's very high marks. Overrated? I find it ok with a 1-5 spread, SD or DD. When Id bet 5-10 units at counts of 8-10 on SD or DD I was punished and did not like the variance. I play with $100 on $5 tables only. Im willing to lose $500 over several hours in a nite only, hwich occurs less than monthly. Or it becomes 'real gambling'.

KO is not a bad count... It can perform as well as Hi/Low but that's assuming you're proficient at it. $5-$25 spread is a bit weak, but I guess for SD you've gotta keep the spread down to avoid detection. However, I don't think I've seen a $5 single deck game that wasn't 6/5 in a long time... What other rules do you play on your SD/DD games? If you play 6/5 you shouldn't be upping your bet until a much higher TC, which in turn means you need to basically have 2 bets ($5 and $25). This is going to drive a bit more variance as well. Really, we'd need to know the other rules, but to answer your base question here KO will perform just fine if that's the count you like and make the least amount of mistakes with.

Quote: reuben71

5. Its not a thrill to win $500 a nite, but sickens me to lose $500. I think this is because I fundamentally think gambling is frivolous. IVe never placed any other wager. I avg $100-200/wk playing maybe 3-5 hours. This is less than 1/10 my actual income. I mostly play to socialize in a new city, recuperating from injury/illness. [Problem is its only gamblers in the casino haha.] Anyway, this seems like 'beating the odds'. Ive never been more than $500 in the hole before making it up by short sessions, wonging, and quit when up $50-100 until Im 'even'. I never count winnings, only the hole. Is this good, avg, boring results or what?

Your average bet and spread are not very high, so you're not going to win tons of money. In fact, from what you've posted I'd say your results are above EV. In fact, I'm showing for a not so great DD rule set a spread of $5-$25 where you MAX BET at TC +3 and wong out at TC -2 to have an expected EV of about $2/hour. So if you're making any mistakes then you're barely above break even... So if you're making $20/hour ($100/5) consider yourself quite lucky and on the good side of variance. I would strongly urge you to re-evaluate your game and re-run your numbers before you head back closer to your EV and think it's just bad luck when in reality it's a weak spread and/or mistakes and not variance at all. I'm glad you've had success thus far, but this is one reason I always urge others to constantly be re-evaluating their game.

Quote: reuben71

6. I dont mask that Im counting. I spread 1-5 and wong out casually. I do get angry when losing, so it makes it look like I lose a lot, but this is not 'intentional'. I just dont think they care since its $5 tables. This is another reason I wont move up to $25. Has anyone else seen this?

Yes. This is actually a sign of casino intelligence to ignore counters at the $5 table as you have basically zero effect on their bottom line and that's IF you have a winning game, which as shown above you 'might' or 'might not.' Even if someone can count correctly and play correctly if they have no concept of bankroll management and RoR they will also go broke to the casino. So from that standpoint if I ran a casino I would ignore $5 counters as well.

When I started out on the $5 tables I used to spread from $5 up to 2x$80 and never so much as got any heat. Of course I spread that after testing out whether I would get heat with different max bets and decided on 2x$80 because of my bankroll/RoR considerations but also the fact that I got zero heat.

Quote: reuben71

7. How do you add an ace side count to KO black jack?

I don't deal with ace side counts regularly, but my memory is good enough that I can keep track of the number of aces left in a SD or DD game while I play with no problem. Basically when the deck is ace-heavy clearly you have an advantage as if you happen to "know" your first card was an Ace you'd have a 51% advantage off the top. I can't add much value to this question since I don't use an ace side count very often.

Quote: reuben71

8. Are there more indices than the 'full' table in book?

There are infinite amounts of indices, but the further out you get (on either side + or -) the less often you'll actually see/use these deviations. Think about it... When's the last time you saw a TC of +25. Well, there certainly are index plays for that but they're worthless to memorize because you'll never see this or you'll see it once in your life. Instead concentrate on the TC -8 to TC +8 range, if you want to add more indexes than the I18 to your game.

Quote: reuben71

9. At high counts, why isnt even money on A10 v A a good bet- or did wizard mean for non counters? If insurance at 3+ is the best yield in KO, then seems like even money for BJ at +3 is just as good.

You are supposed to take even money when the Insurance index is hit. For DD that's actually 2.4... So if you have A-10 v A and the TC is >= +2.4, you should take even money. Even money is just a "short cut" for taking insurance. Play it out a few times and you'll see this.

If you didn't know this, then I'm sorry to inform you that you more than likely DO NOT have a winning game. This is part of the "basics" of card counting. I would strongly urge you to read my 3 articles posted here on the WoV articles section. Irregardless of what count you use, the concepts in the articles are all the same across the card counting board:

https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/A-to-Z-Counting-Cards-in-Blackjack/
https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/A-to-Z-Counting-Cards-In-Blackjack-2/
https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/A-to-Z-Counting-Cards-in-Blackjack-3/

Quote: reuben71

10. Any good data for splitting 10s vs 4, 5 or 6? DD on A8 or A9 vs 5 or 6? Doubling vs splitting 4s vs 5 or 6? I consider at +4 or so like many guys, but want data.

These are regular deviation plays... At least for 6D... 10-10 splits to 6, 5, 4 at TC +4, +5, and +6 respectively. These are part of the I18:

Quote: reuben71

11. Last, on a few occasions Ive been propositioned by female players to leave the table to see their room or something. What is the best way without feelings getting hurt to say "not now its a +8 count?"

Depends on a few things... Is she a hooker? Then it's pretty -EV to leave the table... Is she not a hooker and just wants to have fun? Well, then how hot is she? Are you single? These playing conditions all need to come in to account. If your EV for that shoe is $50, but you're single and she's not a hooker and she's super hot, then the hell with that $50, in my opinion =).

If you really need another excuse just go "Oh hunny you're sweet but I'm gay."

Thanks for reply! Yes the shuffling is garbage. Isnt this intentional though to increase variance and ROR, or theyd buy shufflers. This is also my point on going 1 hand to 2 hands etc. For fun Ill sometimes track and call out an exact card out loud with atrocious shuffling. Twice yesterday I called 'blackjack' then turned it over, correct 2 of 3. I have a biostats masters but some math doesnt play out as we intend at the tables, ex dealer clumping naturals, bad shuffling, proposition hot waitress and forget the count etc.

I used HILO 20yrs ago. Just find less data on KO and dont want to relearn HILO tables.

Thanks for reply. I understand the math, the issues with poor shuffling, dealer patterns are not accounted in the math.

Quote: reuben71

Thanks for reply! Yes the shuffling is garbage. Isnt this intentional though to increase variance and ROR, or theyd buy shufflers. This is also my point on going 1 hand to 2 hands etc. For fun Ill sometimes track and call out an exact card out loud with atrocious shuffling. Twice yesterday I called 'blackjack' then turned it over, correct 2 of 3. I have a biostats masters but some math doesnt play out as we intend at the tables, ex dealer clumping naturals, bad shuffling, proposition hot waitress and forget the count etc.

I used HILO 20yrs ago. Just find less data on KO and dont want to relearn HILO tables.

Oh no no no... If they had a weak shuffle it would be very easy to predict when clumps of big or little cards would be coming. Then you could just bet massive when the clump of big cards is coming. This is called Shuffle Tracking and has been around for a very long time. The casinos want the cards as RANDOM as possible so that players couldn't figure out when clumps of cards were coming. Otherwise the casinos would get KILLED and they'd have no way of figuring it out really given the players would not be moving their money with the count.

Also, even if they shuffled poor on purpose, how on earth would that help the dealer? The player could get the cards or the dealer could get the cards... So just by putting big cards near each other and little cards near each other that still wouldn't help/hurt the player/dealer at all. The only way it could hurt the players, which would be illegal, is if they clumped the big cards to the bottom of the shoe and cut them out to always be dealing small cards... Again, this is why they offer cuts to the players and also why it's illegal to do this.

Going 1 hand to 2 hands actually decreases your variance, but introduces CoVariance.

Hi/Low is used by my approximation about 85% of counters (at least from my experiences). Thus, you're going to be able to much easier find information and answers to your question if you use Hi/Low as opposed to KO, but again to each their own so long as you have a real system (which KO is) and make fewer mistakes with it. I would think that it would be WAY easier to "relearn" Hi/Low than to try to learn a new count at this point though. And if you learned Hi/Low properly the first time you really should never "forget" it entirely. Just a brush up on deviations and a very small amount of practice and I'd think you'd be good to go.

Reuben, I don't want to sound rude, but I'm trying to be helpful... It sounds like you do not have a full understanding of the game. It sounds like you know how to do the +1's and -1's and look at some deviations in the past, but things like a weak shuffle are VERY OBVIOUS to counters. Why on EARTH would you show the casino that you know what cards are coming by calling out the cards? Instead, why the hell wouldn't you simply bet TABLE MAX when you "know" a blackjack is coming? p.s. even with poor shuffles you still can't predict EXACT cards, so either you're embellishing or you have the dealer showing you the cards and not shuffling them basically. I would strongly urge you to read my 3 articles to get a bit of a better understanding and have a more complete winning game. I would also suggest you read up on shuffle tracking if the shuffle is indeed that weak and exploitable.

Quote: reuben71

Thanks for reply. I understand the math, the issues with poor shuffling, dealer patterns are not accounted in the math.

Apologies, but I think it would be a good learning example for others (and yourself) if you could please answer the following questions:

1) What is the full rule set and House Edge for the game you typically play.
2) What is your exact bet spread for this game.
3) How many hands per hour do you usually get at this game?
4) What is your EV/hour at this game?

If you can't answer these questions then my friend you are not playing with a winning game. I'm not here to bash, but help, so give these a shot and let's discuss.

You spread $5 to $25 for three to five hours and average $100 to $200 per week? You should be the one answering questions

Quote: reuben71

11. Last, on a few occasions Ive been propositioned by female players to leave the table to see their room or something. What is the best way without feelings getting hurt to say "not now its a +8 count?"

Playing single or double deck, you should know the +8 isn't going to last long. Not knowing how to talk to females definitely explains a lot.

TomG, an amateur like yourself commenting is laughable. Having lived on the strip for months, zero BJ, just pulled women from the clubs 5 niites a week, Im pretty sure Id look like a superhero or god to you. Obviously no one else out there gets propositioned much at the tables. Have fun in Peoria or whatever godforsaken hole you live in.

Quote: reuben71

TomG, an amateur like yourself commenting is laughable. Having lived on the strip for months, zero BJ, just pulled women from the clubs 5 niites a week, Im pretty sure Id look like a superhero or god to you. Obviously no one else out there gets propositioned much at the tables. Have fun in Peoria or whatever godforsaken hole you live in.

This was pretty condescending and snide, reuben. Tom's a decent guy, smart about AP, and funny. I think you'll find him interesting and conversant with what you're talking about, if you haven't already blown it. He challenged you, you got snotty back, let's move on.

Quote: Romes

However, I don't think I've seen a $5 single deck game that wasn't 6/5 in a long time.

Haven't been up north in a while, eh? Plenty of $5 3:2 single deck up here. Sadly, the 6:5 disease starting to infect this area as well. Hopefully, it doesn't take hold any time soon.

Or he was snotty, I challenged him, then you jumped in.

Anyway a prevailing thread here is that BJ is waay to hard for mere mortals . Only the BJ Math Geniuses of the Forum should ever play a single hand. Or its just giving the casino money.

Oddly, I bet Im the only one on here who has 'won the game' (you all wont even know this term) as well my biostats masters is totally useless for this idiots game of course. Since it takes People that Really Understand Blackjack to win.

Quote: reuben71

TomG, an amateur like yourself commenting is laughable. Having lived on the strip for months, zero BJ, just pulled women from the clubs 5 niites a week, Im pretty sure Id look like a superhero or god to you. Obviously no one else out there gets propositioned much at the tables. Have fun in Peoria or whatever godforsaken hole you live in.

Quote: reuben71

...Anyway a prevailing thread here is that BJ is waay to hard for mere mortals . Only the BJ Math Geniuses of the Forum should ever play a single hand. Or its just giving the casino money.

Oddly, I bet Im the only one on here who has 'won the game' (you all wont even know this term) as well my biostats masters is totally useless for this idiots game of course. Since it takes People that Really Understand Blackjack to win.

I hope you're not referring to me, as I said every step of the way that I was attempting to help you... Blackjack has been "solved" for a long time now, and there aren't "variations" on how to beat the game. You learn to count, get a bankroll, define a bet spread, calculate your EV for the rules/number of hands per hour you're getting, and then you play and play and play until you get to the long run (~75K hands) where your EV +/- SD is guaranteed to be positive. Thus, you can not lose at the game. So yes, I've "won" at the game of blackjack, and to boot, I can prove it.

You've yet to answer my simple questions showing you know how to beat the game:

1) What is the full rule set and House Edge for the game you typically play.
2) What is your exact bet spread for this game.
3) How many hands per hour do you usually get at this game?
4) What is your EV/hour at this game?

You don't have to be a "math guru" to answer these at all... You simply have to know how to beat the game, which the information is widely available and I even linked you to my 3 A-Z articles hosted on this site that explains all of the questions above.

Quote: djatc

+1

Quote: reuben71

Its not a thrill to win $500 a nite, but sickens me to lose $500. I think this is because I fundamentally think gambling is frivolous. IVe never placed any other wager. I avg $100-200/wk playing maybe 3-5 hours. This is less than 1/10 my actual income. I mostly play to socialize in a new city, recuperating from injury/illness. [Problem is its only gamblers in the casino haha.] Anyway, this seems like 'beating the odds'. Ive never been more than $500 in the hole before making it up by short sessions, wonging, and quit when up $50-100 until Im 'even'. I never count winnings, only the hole. Is this good, avg, boring results or what?

$40/hr with an average bet of $10 is a "hot streak" for basic counting (<102% edge).

You're averaging 104-108% depending on how many hands/hr (you see on average) and how much wonging/observing you are doing. Luck is a MUCH bigger factor in your results than the strategy fine-tuning you are doing (100.5-102.0%).

Have you made enough profits to jump to $10-50? (e.g. $8,000 for 400x average bet of $20).

Hopefully you can make $8K-16K before your first serious downstreak.

Good luck.

-----
One day I made $900+ spreading $5-25. Tried & tried but couldn't crack $1,000.
Next day, I lost -$1,200 with the same strategy. Ouch. I was kicking myself for a week (or more).

I was making about $100/day back then...on gambling vacation trips (with a $2K-3K bankroll). Most days spreading $5-25 were +/- $400. Usually an hour would be within +/- $75. However, my daily expenses were $150-200/day (including rent back home etc...), so it was definitely a hobby. Not sustainable as a sole source of income (unless I committed more money to a gambling bankroll).

Basically I just blew all my BJ profits on craps, roulette, carnival games, food, rooms, etc... and tried to have a free vacation.

----
About 20 years ago, a casino employee told me they weren't as afraid of players who bet big...as they were of people who could start with $20-100 and leave with $20K-100K in a "hot run". A HL supervisor in downtown casino who was about to retire...used to be a BJ player, and said his biggest run was $800? - $65,000 (I'm forgetting the exact numbers, about 80x). It's extremely hard to walk away with 100X your daily bankroll in one session.

For fun, I tried chasing hot runs (Doesn't count if you don't leave the table.)
Best I did from $20 was $1,100 top, leaving table at $950 (47.5x).
Best from $10 was leaving the table with about $250.
Best from $5 was about $120.

A conservative way to play is to bet "full Kelly"...but a really "hot run" may be helped by over-betting Kelly on hot streaks, and backing off when cold. Some of my best runs are when counts are getting progressively worse (...which means 10s are coming out from the deck faster than average).

With "normal luck", overbetting Kelly is highly likely to lead to long-term losses (And I hear many pros stick to quarter-Kelly or half-Kelly - An early bout of "bad luck" is apt to cut your bankroll in half, reducing your team hourly-rate in half).

But in the short-term, LUCK is KING.

....and hopefully luck gets you to a six/seven/eight-figure bankroll.

-----
Technically, when you aggressively press & regress, you are trading (1) possibly some EV (2) higher RoR ... for (3) more likelihood of a "hot run". People do this in stocks - trade like a "mad man" below $200K, then switch to a more conservative strategy above $200K. The idea being if you lose your money, you can raise another starting stake (also called "implied bankroll" in gambling).

It's like starting a business. Most entrepreneurs will tell you that they were dumb-f***ing lucky in their first company. In hindsight, they were pretty clueless, made lots of mistakes, but everything turned out hunky-dory.

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With a larger bankroll, professional BJ teams are trying to make a little each day. They want 2x-4x their bankroll (not 50x-100x bankroll), and a good hourly wage. From what I heard, the MIT teams averaged about $50/hr including all training & travel time (However, there is some incentive to quote a low number...)

When I day-trade, I aim for +0.25-0.5%/day. Doesn't sound like much, but in 250 trading days (a year), it's +87-248%/yr. +1%/day was just too hard (since I'm not Warren Buffet) +1,103%/yr.

romes and mamat, thx for comments, still to read through all. btw 'winning the game' is a finance term nothing to do with 21.

I may do the math on 'my EV' as some insist but it is published data so I disagree its needed. My chance of doubling exceed ROR almost 2 to 1 last I researched. Id need to assess win rate, hands/hr etc with the idiots coming and going, but this is also published.

My problem is I waste too much time getting out of a hole instead of leaving. I only count losses-once in black again I dont track winnings. If I lost a few thousand in a month, ever, Id probably quit since losing is not fun and Im playing for fun. There are better ways to make money and 21 can not compete. Its just a time drain really.

Clearly using 1-5 instead of 1-8 SD/DD gives me more and smaller winning sessions by decreasing variance. Ive not seen higher spreads pay off unless hours go by or more and deeper losses are tolerated. Waiting for high counts and then losing most hands is a realistic occurrence. I guess crunching 'my' numbers could give me confidence to go to $25 or 1-10. I just hate losing $1000 more than I love winning $1000 so whats the point?

Regardless, I know I have a 'winning system' because this is published data, born out by my playing HILO sporadically over 20 years in the black, and 6mo of KO in the black. Unless the long run means multiple life times.

Quote: reuben71

Regardless, I know I have a 'winning system' because this is published data, born out by my playing HILO sporadically over 20 years in the black, and 6mo of KO in the black. Unless the long run means multiple life times.

Depends on whether you want a "winning system' or you want to win $10 million.

For some games, "long run" is not achievable in human lifetimes (look at "NO" in video poker).
For many slot machines which I play, the machines will disappear from casino floors way before I could reach "long run".
...which is a major fault of most analyses I see.

A 'winning system' which makes $40/hr may mean very little to someone who's day job pays $500-1,000/hr (much less someone who has an 8-9 figure net worth, as their investments make 7-8 figures/yr). Winning $1,000 probably means very little to many of the VP players in this forum who are chasing $20K, $100K, etc... royals. In Nov 2009, i saw a guy playing at the Bellagio who hit a dealt royal on 3-play $100 VP for $1.2 million (TDB). Staff said he won $3 million that weekend - $2 million on Friday, and $200K five times on Sunday.

So look at (1) +EV (2) +EV/hr (3) "overall win" - gross vs. net profit (4) how much you enjoy the time.

A friend from graduate school who won the WSOP main event...was the first one to explain RoR to me, and that BJ counters are called "mechanics". Sit there for hours & hours waiting for good cards...and make 1/2 bet/hr.

Many pros call "counting cards"..."beating a house game" (It's kind of like "first base"). As most move on to poker in private games. Easier money. Or advanced methods on "house games." Team approaches. Day-trading stocks. Real estate rental properties. Wall Street ultra-fast algorithm trading. Etc...

...from what I hear in 2016-17, the pro who just "counts cards" is a dead (or almost-dead) semi-mythical creature.

There's a lot of concerning things in your reply though...

Quote: reuben71

...I may do the math on 'my EV' as some insist but it is published data so I disagree its needed. My chance of doubling exceed ROR almost 2 to 1 last I researched. Id need to assess win rate, hands/hr etc with the idiots coming and going, but this is also published.

If you've never assessed your EV then you've never ran your numbers telling you if your spread is even profitable. Trust me when I say there's a big diff of just betting $5 till the count is TC +5 then betting $25 vs betting $5 and doubling your bet until your max is out at TC +3. One "wins" (barely), and one does not is the big difference.

Averaging and estimating the number of hands per hour should be joke easy for a person such as yourself, who's played/counted for ~20 years. Whether the table is full, empty, or half, you should easily know whether or not you're getting 60 hands per hour or 100 hands per hour. To not have this skill mastered (which takes no practice just experience) 20 years down the road is a big red flag that perhaps you're a bit overconfident in your game.

Quote: reuben71

My problem is I waste too much time getting out of a hole instead of leaving. I only count losses-once in black again I dont track winnings. If I lost a few thousand in a month, ever, Id probably quit since losing is not fun and Im playing for fun. There are better ways to make money and 21 can not compete. Its just a time drain really.

To a counter, you play for the long run. Whether you're in a hole tonight makes no difference so long as you're playing well and it doesn't affect your ability to play. Leaving in the middle of a big loss means nothing to your bankroll and the game. Also, to not keep track of your wins and losses (as well as average bet, hands per hour, EV, AV, and standard deviations over time) is a huge mistake. You can surely say you're in the black until you're blue in the face, but especially with 20 years of play there's just absolutely no way you can remember all of your winning sessions vs losing sessions enough to make that an accurate statement. We lie to ourselves because of innate human confirmation bias, but numbers my friend... numbers do not lie.

In the end we're all doing it to pass time as it's something we at least moderately enjoy... However you still need to make the clear definition at the end of the day: "Are you trying to actually make money out of playing?" Regardless if it's $100 per month of $5,000 per month, if your answer is yes to this, then you MUST KNOW a lot of the things I've been pointing out to you this entire thread. And again, not trying to sound mean but honest, it's fairly apparent at this point you don't really know them. It's not a lot of work to run your EV for a game. It's not a lot of work to keep a simple excel sheet with basic information... yet these simple things are the crux of having a winning game.

Quote: reuben71

Clearly using 1-5 instead of 1-8 SD/DD gives me more and smaller winning sessions by decreasing variance. Ive not seen higher spreads pay off unless hours go by or more and deeper losses are tolerated. Waiting for high counts and then losing most hands is a realistic occurrence. I guess crunching 'my' numbers could give me confidence to go to $25 or 1-10. I just hate losing $1000 more than I love winning $1000 so whats the point?

A lot of red flags here... Your 1-5 spread does not give you "more smaller" winning sessions. It does decrease your variance, but it also definitely decreases your hourly EV... to a point where you're not even profitable anymore. With that logic... Why not simply flat bet 1 unit at all times? You'll have the LEAST amount of variance and according to your logic even more small wins. Of course with bigger spreads also comes more variance, but again the flip side is that is will definitely INCREASE your hourly EV (at least to a point where you have a winning game). If you understand bankroll management and RoR then you can find out what the MAX is you can bet while still having a completely dismal chance of going broke. It sounds like you haven't defined either and quite possibly don't know what your max bet "could" be. If you're going to sit at that table once/twice per week, and your bankroll can support a bigger bet, then you're literally costing yourself money every hand dealt not to be betting more.

Spreads that are too small do not overcome the house edge because the bulk of the true count frequencies hover around -1 to 1, and even in a "decent" game below .5% (say .4% HE) you 'barely' have any edge and are making anything out of TC +1. Thus, if this is where you spend most of the time according to the TC Frequencies (all proven pending penetration by simulation) your small bet at TC +5 that you see 1.65 times per 100 hands doesn't make up for the losses at the lower level (-1 to 1) which you see 64 times per 100 hands.

Quote: reuben71

Regardless, I know I have a 'winning system' because this is published data, born out by my playing HILO sporadically over 20 years in the black, and 6mo of KO in the black. Unless the long run means multiple life times.

Again, saying "I know I do" without being able to prove it to yourself is worthless. And again, what published data? Where is this data? You already admitted to not keeping stats on your game, so how could this possibly be published/proven on paper somewhere?

The long run takes people different lengths of time to get to pending on how often they play, the average hands per hour, etc.

At Casino A, Joe might get 60 hands per hour and play 2 hours per week. That's 120 hands per week, and if 75K hands is the average "long run" then it'll take him 625 weeks, or 12 YEARS to see the long run.

At Casino B, John plays 100 hands per hour and plays 6 hours per week. That's 600 hands per week, and doing the same math it takes him 125 weeks, or 2.4 years to see the long run.

Thus, if you don't play that often or that many hands per hour, don't keep track of any stats, and combine that with a dismal spread and unfortunately what seems like a non-winning game, then it would be exceedingly plausible that you are still in fact in a state of variance and have not yet hit the long run. Seriously, look at some examples:

If you wong out at TC -2, and play a regular poorer 3/2 DD game (~.66% HE), and have your max bet out by TC +3 with a 1-5 spread ($5-$25) that results in about $1/hour... accounting for NO mistakes, which we ALL make. You're not making any money... Hell, let's look at what 20 years of this at 5 hours per week looks like:

AvgBet: 7.04
AvgAdv (ASSUMING you play with an edge): 1%
OriginalSD = 1.15 * AvgBet = 1.15 * 7.04 = 8.10

So 5 hours per week, and let's say you get an average 75 hands per hour, comes out to be 375 hands per week, or 19,500 hands per year... at 20 years that comes out to a grand total of 390,000 hands.

EV(x hands) = (AvgBet * x)*(AvgAdv)
SD(x hands) = Sqrt(x) * OriginalSD

EV(390,000 hands) = (7.04 * 390,000)*(.01) = 27,456.
SD(390,000 hands) = Sqrt(390,000) * OriginalSD = 5,058.45... 3SD (99% confidence) = 15,175.35

So ASSUMING you're playing correctly (which again a lot of red flags indicating otherwise in this thread) after 20 YEARS you could expect to win $27,456 +/- $15,175.35... Which would come out to $1372.8 per year, and $114.4 per month... Yet in this thread alone you're claiming you make $100-$200 per week.

Using simple math, do you see how we can tell that these numbers do not add up?

Interesting week of 10-15 hours. Went back up to 1-8 but on DD at 0.486, instead of SD 0.018-0.320 HE. Per usual, 2 hours of losing then 2 minutes of winning patterns, but finished in black ~60% of sessions. About $300. Ive had about 6 weeks in past 6mo in the red. Before that I visited vegas 1-2/yr and never left in the red. Every +1 increases my edge 0.6 in KO vs HE so I dont need complexities beyond this. Im interested though in the manner of EV- hand/hr and count frequencies are problematic to cite though, due to wonging.

1. Where are exact tables for #decks/rules for HILO? I just see generic tables not specific to #decks/rules. I play DD DAS DA NRSA NS H17 at 0.486. Used to play same at SD, wow, often though NDAS.

romes, read KO blackjack or at least what Wattenberg say about it. The math is published and it is an elegant short cut to HILO results. Thats why I re-learned KO not HILO went started ~daily 6mo back. With KO, RC=TC. On HILO I dont like the uncertainty of estimated decks which makes 'TC' your best guess of TC or 'BGTC'. Its true there isnt much printed about KO though so hard to get more KO indices or talk shop.

2. do you play lucky ladies at 7+? I do on KO but KO counts 7s. HILO doesnt.

3. I am sick when its a good count, all the other idiots at the table get all the BJs. I think busy tables systematically dilute the effect of the count. What is the ideal # players and why? I like solo, or 1- 2 others so I can wong out/in.

4. On hands/hr, this is hard to estimate as I wong in/out a lot on DD. Mine is about 40-60/hr Id say. This can skew all results such as the EV you calculated for your/my odds as the count frequencie changed.

5. do you hedge for possibility of DD/SP on your max bet or correlating to count? I find spread 1-6 or 1-8, I have too much on the table due to DD/SP opportunities. For this reason I prefer 1-5.

6. where/how to sim so I can get exact KO or HILO indices for exact conditions? I have qfit and used to use SPSS long ago.

7. on EV, bet sizing- I dont really have a bank roll. I dont like losing more than $300/few hours/nite at $5 or 10 tables so its a short leash. Should I just make up a bank roll of $10000? Id have quit BJ long before I lose $10k on this idiots game. I think my bets inferentially declare a bank roll, since avg bet is $10 on the $5 tables, or $20 on the tens.

Im interested in thoughtful input. Not hearing how stupid or lucky I am. I am 1 in 50000 or so intelligent. This may be why I note poor shuffling and cards clumping. Each session or so lll call out a card just for fun, correct 75% or more just by being observant. Thanks