VegasPh1l
VegasPh1l
Joined: Jan 4, 2016
  • Threads: 1
  • Posts: 2
January 4th, 2016 at 10:30:57 AM permalink
All of the gambling advice/strategies and expected wins/losses are based on optimal play over the long run (infinite time).
What about short term play? What if I want to optimize my play for an hour or two or for a $200 bankroll? Comps are weighted towards length of play vs. amount of play for a reason.
RS
RS
Joined: Feb 11, 2014
  • Threads: 62
  • Posts: 8623
January 4th, 2016 at 10:34:42 AM permalink
Quote: VegasPh1l

All of the gambling advice/strategies and expected wins/losses are based on optimal play over the long run (infinite time).
What about short term play? What if I want to optimize my play for an hour or two or for a $200 bankroll? Comps are weighted towards length of play vs. amount of play for a reason.



Okay. What are you getting at?
TomG
TomG
Joined: Sep 26, 2010
  • Threads: 13
  • Posts: 2108
January 4th, 2016 at 10:44:51 AM permalink
In that case things are much different, to give yourself the best value you should only play games where you are able to overcome the house advantage
Pinit2winit
Pinit2winit
Joined: Sep 8, 2015
  • Threads: 25
  • Posts: 249
January 4th, 2016 at 11:49:31 AM permalink
Oh just go hit the megabucks bro. 21 bucks 7 spins. 12mil. Short term winher for sure.
VegasPh1l
VegasPh1l
Joined: Jan 4, 2016
  • Threads: 1
  • Posts: 2
January 4th, 2016 at 12:09:00 PM permalink
If you flip a coin one time, the probability of at least one head is 1/2 - 50%
Two times is 3/4 = 75%
Three times is 7/8 - 88%
Four times is 15/16 - 94%
The longer you toss, the closer you get to 100% (but never get there).

In a game like video poker, can you play hands that have a higher payout vs lower probably for a short time in order to maximize a potential win?
I.e. Can the initial randomness of a limit calculation just be considered "noise" and ignored up to a certain point?
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
Joined: Jun 22, 2011
  • Threads: 95
  • Posts: 4473
January 4th, 2016 at 12:13:05 PM permalink
Things like video poker strategy and basic strategy in blackjack are based on only the next hand - not the "long run."

That being said, if you are trying to play for a fixed amount of time, or "the longest time possible," then there is an obvious answer - stick to the minimum bets. The more money you bet in total, the more you expose to the house edge. This is true whether you are pressing losses (e.g. Martingale, D'Alembert) or pressing wins.

I am not as wise in the ways of comps as some of the other regulars here, but aren't comps based on a combination of how long you play, how much you are betting, and what the house edge is on those bets?
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
  • Threads: 148
  • Posts: 18652
January 4th, 2016 at 12:29:22 PM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy

Things like video poker strategy and basic strategy in blackjack are based on only the next hand - not the "long run."

That being said, if you are trying to play for a fixed amount of time, or "the longest time possible," then there is an obvious answer - stick to the minimum bets. The more money you bet in total, the more you expose to the house edge. This is true whether you are pressing losses (e.g. Martingale, D'Alembert) or pressing wins.

I am not as wise in the ways of comps as some of the other regulars here, but aren't comps based on a combination of how long you play, how much you are betting, and what the house edge is on those bets?

Basically yes.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
Romes
Romes
Joined: Jul 22, 2014
  • Threads: 27
  • Posts: 5490
January 4th, 2016 at 12:39:15 PM permalink
Quote: RS

Okay. What are you getting at?

Sniffing the system out early, huh? =P

Quote: VegasPh1l

All of the gambling advice/strategies and expected wins/losses are based on optimal play over the long run (infinite time).
What about short term play? What if I want to optimize my play for an hour or two or for a $200 bankroll? Comps are weighted towards length of play vs. amount of play for a reason.

It really depends what direction you're coming in from... If you're a system player looking to make a short term system that works (for 1 given night) this will ultimately fail because the concept is flawed. If it works for 1 given night (mathematically) then it must also work for X given nights, thus meaning it must work in "the long run." Therefor, you can not make a system that WILL FOR SURE work tonight but might not work in the long run. It either works for both, or doesn't work at all.

Now on to short term variance. If you're just looking for the best strategy to play for 1 night, to optimize your play, then that also depends! What games do you like to play, how proficient are you in their respective strategies (BJ basic, VP basic, or non-skilled games such as craps)? If you like 3 different games and want to optimize your night, then you should of course play the one with the lowest house edge and possibly the lowest variance, which for almost all casino games is usually blackjack (~.5%), baccarat (1% - 1.2% pending banker/player), craps (1.36% - 1.41% pending DP/Pass), or Pai Gow Poker (2.7%). While Pai Gow Poker is a higher HE, a lot of people love playing it for drinks, to burn time, or to gamble and not win/lose much money (low variance) because a LOT of the hands end up being Pushes.

Finally, for comps, if you're looking for length and not necessarily amount, I would say play Pai Gow Poker. You can play this game for hours and hours and hours and not win or lose very much with only a couple hundred to start with. Find a $5 or $10 table and have fun =P. BJ has a better longer term probability, and is only 1/4th the house edge, but you will see more swings in which your $200 may, or may not, last you very long at a $10 table =/.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
RS
RS
Joined: Feb 11, 2014
  • Threads: 62
  • Posts: 8623
January 4th, 2016 at 12:52:06 PM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy

I am not as wise in the ways of comps as some of the other regulars here, but aren't comps based on a combination of how long you play, how much you are betting, and what the house edge is on those bets?



Not necessarily the house edge - but the theoretical loss. In other words, how much the casino expects you to lose.

House Edge on blackjack might be 0.5% -- but most players don't play with a 0.5% disadvantage. They play with a larger disadvantage, probably 1.5-3%. Same thing with video poker and other games where strategy is involved.
Romes
Romes
Joined: Jul 22, 2014
  • Threads: 27
  • Posts: 5490
January 4th, 2016 at 1:13:26 PM permalink
Quote: RS

Not necessarily the house edge - but the theoretical loss. In other words, how much the casino expects you to lose.

House Edge on blackjack might be 0.5% -- but most players don't play with a 0.5% disadvantage. They play with a larger disadvantage, probably 1.5-3%. Same thing with video poker and other games where strategy is involved.

RS is correct in that "most" casinos go off of Theoretical Loss (TL).

TL = TotalAction * HE, where TotalAction = (NumHands*AvgBet), and the HE is the players rating on the game. Thus, you can play a .5% blackjack game, but if the PB sees you splitting 5's to a dealer 10, they're going to mark you as a poor player, and the "HE" number in that equation will no longer be .5%, but 4-5%. They mark most players in carnival games at 5%+ because none of them seem to every know basic strategy for the game they're playing.

For this reason I'd suggest Pai Gow, since the higher edge might help an otherwise .5% rated "basic strategy" player, combined with the higher volume of pushes.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.

  • Jump to: