themathguy
themathguy
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Joined: Oct 19, 2015
October 19th, 2015 at 2:33:15 PM permalink
Hi there,

So I happened across some spin poker recently, and I have some questions about the odds. On the main site, the odds are listed as the exact same as standard multi-line poker, but with much higher variance... However, I find that hard to believe given the constraint of a single deck. Does anyone have a more full breakdown of the odds for this game?

Given a formula of EV = payout * (odds/hand) * (# hands bet)
Given Single Deck Spin Poker with 3 lines played vs. 3 hand poker
Given payouts of 4000 for a royal and 125 for 4 of a kind (all other outcomes taken as zero for convenience of illustration)

2 examples of odds that don't seem to align -

Dealt 4 to a Royal:
Typ. JoB EV = 4000 * (1/47) * 3 = 255.32
Spin Poker EV =
[Hand 1] 4000*(1/47)
[Hand 2] +4000*(1/46)
[Hand 3] +4000*(1/45)
= 260.95

Dealt 3 of a kind:
Typ. JoB EV = 125 * (1/47+1/46) * 3 = 16.13
Spin Poker EV =
[Hand 1] 125 * (1/47+1/46)
[Hand 2]+125 * (1/45+1/44)
[Hand 3]+125 * (1/43+1/42)
=16.88

Am I missing something obvious here? Do the odds even out when accounting for the fact that you could hit all three hands in standard multi-hand but not the other [although the odds of that happening are in the neighborhood of .001% (1/47*1/47*1/47)]? Perhaps the odds even out once you've accounted for the full pay table?

Cheers and Happy Gambling!
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