About Roulette

Alrite. This is just something that I have thought of. I know the "Wizard of Odds" guy is going to be against me on this one because he doesn't believe in betting systems. I'm tired of losing at the casino. I'm a man of probability. A lot of people will say that the best way to win at a casino is to just NOT GO at all. I agree with this but we also cannot deny that there are more intelligent bets to be made at the casino as well. Bets that have better PROBABILITY of winning that actually CAN and WILL work MOST of the time in your FAVOR. A person just has to simply do research and use his or her brain to figure out bets that have better odds.

For example: If someone had a quarter and wanted to make a bet with me. Let us assume for this situation this person just came up to me randomly at a casino one day or night. This person simply said to me, "Hey buddy, I'll make a bet with you. I'll flip this quarter 3 times. For every 3 times that I flip this quarter it will be called a 'set'. A 'set' equals 3 flips."

He then explains that.... if the quarter lands on "heads" every time during a set that I would owe him $50. If any one of the 3 flips lands on "tails" during a set then he would owe me $50. Lets just say that this "guy" wanted to go a round of "10" sets and he said that after 10 sets we would tally up to see who owes who money..... :0

It doesn't take a lot of intelligence to realize that the odds of me actually paying him at the end of 10 sets are very very low. If someone came up to me and made this bet with me I would either assume that this person is a magician, insane, has a lot of money, generous, doesn't care, felt like giving money away, or any combination of these.

Why am I saying this? I know this type of "game" doesn't exist at a casino. Baccarat is basically a 50/50 game almost. What I am saying is that I believe there actually are ways of winning consistently at a casino making smart bets and not just blowing $100 at blackjack. What I'm saying is that math actually DOES exist at a casino. At the game of roulette there are a total of 38 numbers. Yes, I am talking about an American roulette wheel here. It is pretty safe to say that if you bet 31/38 numbers the odds are going to be in your favor. If every number has an equal bet on it then the odds of you making a profit is around 80% I think. The odds of you actually losing is obviously around 20%.

If someone established a high enough bankroll then this person could realistically make a "one time" bet of $930 and win $150 at an 80% chance of winning. Not only that but you don't have to spend 5 hours trying to work your way up. You'd know in a few minutes whether or not you lose or win and you could literally do this every day if you wanted to. At an 80% chance of winning? That seems like a smart bet to me. I know a lot of people would argue that I'd lose over the long run. I know I'm not going to win every time.

Let us assume that I had $10,000 bankroll. I could realistically do some pretty good damage with that amount of money.

Here is the scenario.....

I walk up to a roulette wheel that actually has a dealer. Not an electronic roulette wheel. I think there are pros and cons for both wheels, but for this situation I'll walk up to the one that has the dealer. Let us assume that the max bet is $1,000. I get a grand in chips and begin the wild ride. I decide that I am going to bet 31 out of the 38 possible numbers available in one bet. Now, in this situation, I know it doesn't really matter what numbers you pick as far as probability. We all know that roulette is random and can land on any number. Call me crazy but in my experience of playing roulette the "ball" usually lands some where in the middle of the "board". I rarely ever see the "four corners" hit and we all know that zero and double zero rarely ever hit either. Agree or disagree; this is just my personal hypothetical observation.

Well, lets say that I decide to go through with this bet. (I have never actually tried this) I have a grand in chips and decide to put a $930 bet on the table. I put $30 on every single number except numbers 0, 00, 1, 2, 3, 34, and 36. 1, 3, 34, and 36 are the "four corners". I chose 2 at random and disregarded zero and double zero for obvious reasons. Okay, I'm done placing my bet, flip off the cameras, attract the pit bosses, and tell the dealer to go ahead with the spin.

Wouldn't I have an 80% chance of winning $150? Would you agree that this could legitimately be a realistic way to make $150 a day doing this? Obviously in a hypothetical sense the answer should be yes. With a bankroll of ten grand also. You could just store your bankroll in a safe and use only for this purpose. Seems like it could work.

Quote: waterandice

Call me crazy but in my experience of playing roulette the "ball" usually lands some where in the middle of the "board". .

Not crazy, just extremely inexperienced. All
pockets on a wheel get the ball an equal
number of times, if they didn't the house
would have no edge.

I have nothing to offer except a warm welcome to the forum. I've been to casinos all over the world, spanning decades, and have never played roulette. Not once.

You've given this a lot of thought. What about a single zero wheel? Wouldn't they be available at the betting level that you describe?

Quote: waterandice

and we all know that zero and double zero rarely ever hit either. .

At first glance I had some doubts about this system, but when I reached the line quoted above I realized you were onto something here. Keep me updated on your progress

An 81.6% chance of winning $150, and a 18.4% chance of losing 930.

Oh look, EV = .816 * 150 + .184 * -930 = -$48.9

That is, not by coincidence, 930 * the house edge of roulette.

Please do not do this thinking you will win, with a $10,000 bankroll or otherwise.

Quote: michael99000

At first glance I had some doubts about this system, but when I reached the line quoted above I realized you were onto something here. Keep me updated on your progress

Yes, the zeros are as rare as the numbers 17 and 33 hitting.
They are equally rare..

Quote: waterandice

Let us assume that I had $10,000 bankroll. I could realistically do some pretty good damage with that amount of money. ... Seems like it could work.

No..... You would get steadily slaughtered. Not maybe in the first few days, but soon enough.

First. There's an equal chance for each number: Your observation of corners and zeros is just that: Observation, and through blinkers.

100% of the time you put $930 on the table.
31/38=81.5789% of the time you pick up 36x30=$1080 for a profit of $150. Whoopy-do. Well done.
7/38=18.421% of the time you pick up diddly squat for a loss of $930. Doh !

But you have 10,000 bankroll so you are cool, yeah?.....No!!!
Lets say you place 3800 wagers and you have neither good luck nor bad luck, just straight down the middle average returns....

3,100 times (give or take) you win picking up $1080 each time : $465,000 in total picked up.
700 times you put down and lose $930 giving you a loss of $651,000 in total.

What you put on the table - what you pick up off the table = what you lose at the table.

hmmmmm. I think you'd have had to top up your bankroll a few times, because those 3,800 rolls cost you a loss of $186,000


Unless, of course two things happen: You get unusually lucky, or you have great psychic ability.

Lets say you only play one spin per day for 76 days, not unreasonable...
You could expect to average 62 winning days of $150 profit per day giving you $9,300 profit.
You could also expect to have 14 days which each result in loss of $930 giving loss over those days of 13,020
So after those 76 days, you would, on average luck, have lost $3,720. Your mileage may vary, but there's no reason to assume you would do significantly better than average.

Quote: michael99000

At first glance I had some doubts about this system, but when I reached the line quoted above I realized you were onto something here. Keep me updated on your progress

Lol. Hilarious Michael :)

Quote: OnceDear

Lets say you only play one spin per day for 76 days, not unreasonable...
You could expect to average 62 winning days of $150 profit per day giving you $9,300 profit.
You could also expect to have 14 days which each result in loss of $930 giving loss over those days of 13,020
So after those 76 days, you would, on average luck, have lost $3,720. Your mileage may vary, but there's no reason to assume you would do significantly better than average.

Oh I forgot.... Here's a brilliant tactic.... Only bet on the 62 winning days and stay away on the other 14 days.

Quote: OnceDear

Oh I forgot.... Here's a brilliant tactic.... Only bet on the 62 winning days and stay away on the other 14 days.

Works every time it's tried..

I guess I could always just increase my chances of winning to 97% by betting 37 numbers, putting $27 on each number for a total bet of $999 to have a 97% chance of winning 27 bucks. Of course based on my luck lately I'd probably hit that one magical number (that's not so magical) that I don't want to hit.

Hmm... I wonder why a single number only pays 36:1 when there are 38 numbers.....??? :0

Oh... wait, I know why.

I stated this in my post.

Quote: 1BB

I have nothing to offer except a warm welcome to the forum. I've been to casinos all over the world, spanning decades, and have never played roulette. Not once.

You've given this a lot of thought. What about a single zero wheel? Wouldn't they be available at the betting level that you describe?

I've given it adequate thought and no the casino close to me does not offer single zero roulette. Thanks for the welcome.

Quote: michael99000

At first glance I had some doubts about this system, but when I reached the line quoted above I realized you were onto something here. Keep me updated on your progress

I've decided not to do this but I am glad that you guys have made me look like a fool.

Wait, no I think I do that well enough myself.

Quote: waterandice

I stated this in my post.

Then you don't understand it or you never
would have said:

Call me crazy but in my experience of playing roulette the "ball" usually lands some where in the middle of the "board". .

The ball doesn't 'usually' land anywhere. If
it did the game would be simple to beat.

Quote: OnceDear

No..... You would get steadily slaughtered. Not maybe in the first few days, but soon enough.

First. There's an equal chance for each number: Your observation of corners and zeros is just that: Observation, and through blinkers.

100% of the time you put $930 on the table.
31/38=81.5789% of the time you pick up 36x30=$1080 for a profit of $150. Whoopy-do. Well done.
7/38=18.421% of the time you pick up diddly squat for a loss of $930. Doh !

But you have 10,000 bankroll so you are cool, yeah?.....No!!!
Lets say you place 3800 wagers and you have neither good luck nor bad luck, just straight down the middle average returns....

3,100 times (give or take) you win picking up $1080 each time : $465,000 in total picked up.
700 times you put down and lose $930 giving you a loss of $651,000 in total.

What you put on the table - what you pick up off the table = what you lose at the table.

hmmmmm. I think you'd have had to top up your bankroll a few times, because those 3,800 rolls cost you a loss of $186,000


Unless, of course two things happen: You get unusually lucky, or you have great psychic ability.

Lets say you only play one spin per day for 76 days, not unreasonable...
You could expect to average 62 winning days of $150 profit per day giving you $9,300 profit.
You could also expect to have 14 days which each result in loss of $930 giving loss over those days of 13,020
So after those 76 days, you would, on average luck, have lost $3,720. Your mileage may vary, but there's no reason to assume you would do significantly better than average.

I wouldn't call it unusually lucky. The odds are in my favor as I have stated, but I see where you are going with this. I understand that if I did this for a year I'd probably end up negative as you have demonstrated. Thanks for proving me wrong.

Quote: EvenBob

Then you don't understand it or you never
would have said:

Call me crazy but in my experience of playing roulette the "ball" usually lands some where in the middle of the "board". .

The ball doesn't 'usually' land anywhere. If
it did the game would be simple to beat.

In my experience it does.

Key words, "in my experience"

Quote: waterandice

I guess I could always just increase my chances of winning to 97% by betting 37 numbers, putting $27 on each number for a total bet of $999 to have a 97% chance of winning 27 bucks. Of course based on my luck lately I'd probably hit that one magical number (that's not so magical) that I don't want to hit.

The key here is to make sure the number that you leave uncovered is one of the those which rarely ever hit. Eg. The zeroes, or the four corners.

Do not use 17 or 20, those are the most
hit numbers. More people bet them than
any 2 numbers on the board. Ask the
dealer, they'll verify it.

Quote: michael99000

The key here is to make sure the number that you leave uncovered is one of the those which rarely ever hit. Eg. The zeroes, or the four corners.

Decisions...decisions....

Quote: EvenBob

Do not use 17 or 20, those are the most
hit numbers. More people bet them than
any 2 numbers on the board. Ask the
dealer, they'll verify it.

Alrite. Thanks for the tip.

Bet "Odd" on the odd-numbered days of the week, and "Even" on the even-numbered days.

Ka-ching!

Quote: MrV

Bet "Odd" on the odd-numbered days of the week, and "Even" on the even-numbered days.

Ka-ching!

Why do that? Why give away tips on winning
FREE on a public forum. Faaaa...

this reminds me of a guy who told me he thought the zero and 00 pockets were bigger than the others so those numbers would come up more often.....he asked me if he should tell a shift boss, call the police or inform the gaming commish.....I told him to bet 0 and 00.

Quote: EvenBob

Do not use 17 or 20, those are the most
hit numbers. More people bet them than
any 2 numbers on the board. Ask the
dealer, they'll verify it.

And besides the zeroes, 35 and 9 are the most rarely bet numbers. I've always wondered why.

if he is trolling us ok I had a nice laugh :)

but if not he must be very young and new to the game. so please lets tell him to stop this kind of approach and enjoy the game with small money.

Quote: 1BB

I've been to casinos all over the world, spanning decades, and have never played roulette. Not once.

Not surprising.

Men prefer to shoot dice and play skilled games like poker and blackjack due to their natural competitive nature and desire to control.

Quien es mas macho, Roulette or Blackjack?

Quote: Tanko

Not surprising.

Men prefer to shoot dice and play skilled games like poker and blackjack due to their natural competitive nature and desire to control.

Quien es mas macho, Roulette or Blackjack?

What a great question! Care to make it a poll? It could be fun.

Quote: waterandice

For example: If someone had a quarter and wanted to make a bet with me. Let us assume for this situation this person just came up to me randomly at a casino one day or night. This person simply said to me, "Hey buddy, I'll make a bet with you. I'll flip this quarter 3 times. For every 3 times that I flip this quarter it will be called a 'set'. A 'set' equals 3 flips."

He then explains that.... if the quarter lands on "heads" every time during a set that I would owe him $50. If any one of the 3 flips lands on "tails" during a set then he would owe me $50. Lets just say that this "guy" wanted to go a round of "10" sets and he said that after 10 sets we would tally up to see who owes who money..... :0

It doesn't take a lot of intelligence to realize that the odds of me actually paying him at the end of 10 sets are very very low. If someone came up to me and made this bet with me I would either assume that this person is a magician, insane, has a lot of money, generous, doesn't care, felt like giving money away, or any combination of these.

Your assumptions are again incorrect. You have met up with an advantage coin flipper. (His coin, he's flipping... those are the things to watch out for. If you took turns flipping, it might be fair. Probably not.)

I expect you'll end up paying him $200 if you take the bet for 10 rounds.

If both of you flip a coin, and one of you rolled a head, the chance of the other one having rolled a tail is 2/3 rds.

Quote: Kerkebet

If both of you flip a coin, and one of you rolled a head, the chance of the other one having rolled a tail is 2/3 rds.

1. You're assuming that we would alternate flips, not sets.

2. You're assuming that a coin toss will have a random outcome. This is not the case with a skilled toss. (Yes, I am serious.)

Quote: Dieter

1. You're assuming that we would alternate flips, not sets.

2. You're assuming that a coin toss will have a random outcome. This is not the case with a skilled toss. (Yes, I am serious.)

Let's just say, this can't be applied to roulette.

Quote: Kerkebet

Let's just say, this can't be applied to roulette.

Lets just say this whole thread gave me a chuckle. Good Luck. When you are done, if you have any money left; I have some beachfront property in AZ that you might be interested in.

Quote: vendman1

Lets just say this whole thread gave me a chuckle. Good Luck. When you are done, if you have any money left; I have some beachfront property in AZ that you might be interested in.

Got any river property in Bullhead?

I hear the Video BJ is gaffed in laughlin, Ill need a place.

Quote: Tanko

Not surprising.

Men prefer to shoot dice and play skilled games like poker and blackjack due to their natural competitive nature and desire to control.

Quien es mas macho, Roulette or Blackjack?

To some of us roulette is both a game of skill and an advantage play.


-Keyser

Quote: waterandice

we all know that zero and double zero rarely ever hit either. Agree or disagree; this is just my personal hypothetical observation.

Hypotheticals aside, just yesterday I was walking through the casino and saw a Roulette display with 7 of the 16 numbers as 0/00. Just sayin'

Quote: Dieter

Quote: waterandice

For example: If someone had a quarter and wanted to make a bet with me. Let us assume for this situation this person just came up to me randomly at a casino one day or night. This person simply said to me, "Hey buddy, I'll make a bet with you. I'll flip this quarter 3 times. For every 3 times that I flip this quarter it will be called a 'set'. A 'set' equals 3 flips."

He then explains that.... if the quarter lands on "heads" every time during a set that I would owe him $50. If any one of the 3 flips lands on "tails" during a set then he would owe me $50. Lets just say that this "guy" wanted to go a round of "10" sets and he said that after 10 sets we would tally up to see who owes who money..... :0

It doesn't take a lot of intelligence to realize that the odds of me actually paying him at the end of 10 sets are very very low. If someone came up to me and made this bet with me I would either assume that this person is a magician, insane, has a lot of money, generous, doesn't care, felt like giving money away, or any combination of these.

Your assumptions are again incorrect. You have met up with an advantage coin flipper. (His coin, he's flipping... those are the things to watch out for. If you took turns flipping, it might be fair. Probably not.)

I expect you'll end up paying him $200 if you take the bet for 10 rounds.

Most likely in a situation like this.

Quote: chickenman

Hypotheticals aside, just yesterday I was walking through the casino and saw a Roulette display with 7 of the 16 numbers as 0/00. Just sayin'

Yeah.. maybe like once a year that happens?

Quote: Keyser

To some of us roulette is both a game of skill and an advantage play.


-Keyser

It is nothing but just a game of math to me.

Quote: seven

if he is trolling us ok I had a nice laugh :)

but if not he must be very young and new to the game. so please lets tell him to stop this kind of approach and enjoy the game with small money.

New to the game or experienced to the game, what does it matter? I thought most experienced gamblers quit by now.

Let an "experienced" gambler present his work. Oh wait.... I forgot that he must play poker or be able to count cards.

Quote: waterandice

Let an "experienced" gambler present his work. Oh wait.... I forgot that he must play poker or be able to count cards.

Please don't be the rude newbie Waterandice.
There are many experienced gamblers here and there are some very gifted mathematicians and analysts. It strikes me that there are a few trolls and completely bogus new members over the last few days, posting about proposed systems which have been discounted as downright nonsense many times over.
I don't wish to be insulting, but anyone who claims any skill in maths and then proposes a winning flat betting ( or any other) system at roulette can go straight on my blocklist.


For the final say from me on WaterAndIce's system. It's easy to come up with a roulette system where you walk out in profit more often than you walk out with loss: Your system does that. It is not a winning system, because losing days are much more significant than winning days.

Note to mods... Please check IP's of a few recent posting new members, because I strongly suspect mischief.

Quote: Keyser

To some of us roulette is both a game of skill and an advantage play.


-Keyser

Do What ????
Oh to hell with it. That's rhetorical. I really will not try to absorb or argue the toss with any reply.

Quote: OnceDear

Do What ????
Oh to hell with it. That's rhetorical. I really will not try to absorb or argue the toss with any reply.

What, did I stutter?

Quote: OnceDear

Please don't be the rude newbie Waterandice.
There are many experienced gamblers here and there are some very gifted mathematicians and analysts. It strikes me that there are a few trolls and completely bogus new members over the last few days, posting about proposed systems which have been discounted as downright nonsense many times over.
I don't wish to be insulting, but anyone who claims any skill in maths and then proposes a winning flat betting ( or any other) system at roulette can go straight on my blocklist.


For the final say from me on WaterAndIce's system. It's easy to come up with a roulette system where you walk out in profit more often than you walk out with loss: Your system does that. It is not a winning system, because losing days are much more significant than winning days.

Note to mods... Please check IP's of a few recent posting new members, because I strongly suspect mischief.

I wasn't being rude and I don't know about other "trolls". Seriously though, where are all these so-called "experienced" gamblers that can "take down the house"?

You're right it is easy to come up with a roulette system where you walk out in profit more often. If I wanted to be skilled in math I'd study it and I just simply presented a way to make some money with a bankroll. You're right that I shouldn't try to make a living at this type of system. Everyone is right that I would get ruined in the long run.

AP roulette is not a game of math. It's more of a game of physics.

Shades of Mark Howe.

I'm not Mark Howe.

Quote: Keyser

I'm not Mark Howe.

That's just sad..

Here's how you beat roulette.

You stand over the wheel.

If the ball lands on a # you don't like, blow it out of the pocket so it lands in another one. You essentially get 2 rolls to get your # instead of 1.

Disclaimer: You'll probably get 86ed and you won't get paid.