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darkoz
darkoz
Joined: Dec 22, 2009
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August 29th, 2014 at 1:53:13 AM permalink
Quote: AxiomOfChoice

The point is that using two coupons at the same time is no more of an advantage play than using 1 at a time. The EV does not change. Each coupon has a specific EV, and your total EV is the sum of the EVs of the coupons, regardless of whether you bet them at the same time.

Now of course EV is not everything, and if the coupons are very large compared to your bankroll then of course reducing variance is worthwhile. But I think that most people who get very large coupons also have very large bankrolls so I don't think that this is really an issue. Mostly this is just people who have two $10 coupons and don't want to risk getting nothing out of it because they really want that $10. Which is fine, but the point is that if the casino gives out 1000 of these coupons, their bottom line is unaffected regardless of whether people play them 2 at a time (against each other) or one at a time. They are going to lose about the same amount on the coupons either way.



You don't live where I do.

Their are tens of thousands of AP's and yes, they are small stakes players but they swarm on casinos.

A situation where a player is guaranteed to make money will result in the casino being swarmed. And let me make myself clear. These AP's earning ten bucks a pop won't leave with just one shot at ten bucks. They will make repeated daily visits.

The Sands casino in Bensalem learned that the hardway. The AP's took advantage of a bus comp program. The casino scheduled their buses so that no one could make three or four trips (the return bus was passing the incoming bus).

What did the AP's do? They hired a local bus driver to ferry hundreds a day back and forth so they could make EVERY return visit. (The casino was not ID'ing people and the bus comps were simply handed out without using a player's card.)

You're making the mistake of comparing numbers to numbers. You should be comparing people to people. If you have an advantageous situation where I come from the "Expected Value" of players who will show up to take advantage will be higher than those who don't.

I don't use expected value in the mathematical sense but in the physical real world sense. The expected value of an AP situation - lots and lots of pre-determined losses!
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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August 29th, 2014 at 3:12:19 AM permalink
Quote: darkoz

You don't live where I do.

Their are tens of thousands of AP's and yes, they are small stakes players but they swarm on casinos.

A situation where a player is guaranteed to make money will result in the casino being swarmed. And let me make myself clear. These AP's earning ten bucks a pop won't leave with just one shot at ten bucks. They will make repeated daily visits.

The Sands casino in Bensalem learned that the hardway. The AP's took advantage of a bus comp program. The casino scheduled their buses so that no one could make three or four trips (the return bus was passing the incoming bus).

What did the AP's do? They hired a local bus driver to ferry hundreds a day back and forth so they could make EVERY return visit. (The casino was not ID'ing people and the bus comps were simply handed out without using a player's card.)

You're making the mistake of comparing numbers to numbers. You should be comparing people to people. If you have an advantageous situation where I come from the "Expected Value" of players who will show up to take advantage will be higher than those who don't.

I don't use expected value in the mathematical sense but in the physical real world sense. The expected value of an AP situation - lots and lots of pre-determined losses!

We heard about this. What was made public didn't include "They hired a local bus driver to ferry hundreds a day back and forth"

I find it funny you say this, because while discussing it, I said, I'm surprised no one "hired a local bus driver to ferry hundreds a day back and forth" not in them exact words.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
darkoz
darkoz
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August 29th, 2014 at 3:29:45 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

We heard about this. What was made public didn't include "They hired a local bus driver to ferry hundreds a day back and forth"

I find it funny you say this, because while discussing it, I said, I'm surprised no one "hired a local bus driver to ferry hundreds a day back and forth" not in them exact words.



If you said that, I didn't see it. I looked over the thread and don't see that statement. However, I did point out in that thread that I was there and a part of the whole thing so trust me, I know.

The Asians would literally get off the bus, sell their freeplay cards in the bus parking area and then leave without entering the casino. They would all trudge up the nearby hill to a predetermined spot where they would meet up with the hired bus.

The original thread is here

http://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/video-poker/18819-sands-bethlehem-squashes-vp-advantage-play/2/
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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August 29th, 2014 at 3:41:27 AM permalink
Quote: darkoz

If you said that, I didn't see it. I looked over the thread and don't see that statement. However, I did point out in that thread that I was there and a part of the whole thing so trust me, I know.

The Asians would literally get off the bus, sell their freeplay cards in the bus parking area and then leave without entering the casino. They would all trudge up the nearby hill to a predetermined spot where they would meet up with the hired bus.

The original thread is here

http://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/video-poker/18819-sands-bethlehem-squashes-vp-advantage-play/2/

I was not clear, I meant, I was discussing it with a friend.

Yes I read this, It was interesting, to say the least. Not surprising I know of a few thing like this in the past. The scale of this seems incredible. The market value fluctuating and everything makes me chuckle
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
darkoz
darkoz
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August 29th, 2014 at 3:53:26 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

I was not clear, I meant, I was discussing it with a friend.

Yes I read this, It was interesting, to say the least. Not surprising I know of a few thing like this in the past. The scale of this seems incredible. The market value fluctuating and everything makes me chuckle



I should make it clear that the whole Sands bus incident involved TWO bus programs, not one.

Basically, there was the New York bus which was a $15 bus ticket for $45. It took two hours to get there and had a 5 hour layover. But there was also a local bus that took passengers from the city of Kutztown about 30 minutes away. That was $15 for $35.

So the Asian bus riders would get off the New York bus, then trudge up the hill for the local driver to take them to Kutztown.

Then they would ride back, get the Kutztown comp, meet up with the same bus driver, go back for a second trip from Kutztown.

Then after receiving all three comps they would either play them out or sell them. Hop back on the New York bus and go home.

Many of them who were homeless might also make a fourth trip at night but the Kutztown bus didn't run then so they just hung out in the food court for their morning return.
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
24Bingo
24Bingo
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August 29th, 2014 at 7:14:13 AM permalink
Nothing you're saying suggests that the casinos were taken because their customers hedged. As I said, the trick is getting the free bets.

Quote: Eaglesnest

A true AP definitely should be risk-averse, because he knows that he will be a winner in the long run as long as he escapes the slings and arrows of variance. The house is risk-averse when it sets betting limits at the tables, for the same reason.



An AP should be slightly risk-averse. Sweating the typical denominations of free bets is beyond the pale.
The trick to poker is learning not to beat yourself up for your mistakes too much, and certainly not too little, but just the right amount.
darkoz
darkoz
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August 29th, 2014 at 7:52:27 AM permalink
Quote: 24Bingo

Nothing you're saying suggests that the casinos were taken because their customers hedged. As I said, the trick is getting the free bets.



That's because the casinos do not allow it. This discussion was what if the casinos allowed betting both sides on free-bets. My point was they would be taken by hedging if that was allowed.

As for getting free bets, that is not that difficult. There are any number of ways to do that. Some casinos (Mohegan Sun, Foxwoods, etc) give those away as part of the bus rebate program. Mohegan Sun gives away $60 in match-play and Foxwoods is similar. And while it may seem small potatoes, the AP's as I have pointed out can really strip-mine a casino.

Even gamblers who are not true AP's, (a husband and wife on a field trip for example) will do a simple AP maneuver if they realize they can make guaranteed money. Once the casinos are getting nothing but AP maneuvers, the expected value of the offer goes down. Once again, I'm not talking math, I'm talking people.

Expected value of free-play math-wise unchanged.

Expected value of free-play when 95% of people bet against each other - huge difference.
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
darkoz
darkoz
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August 29th, 2014 at 7:53:33 AM permalink
Quote: 24Bingo

Nothing you're saying suggests that the casinos were taken because their customers hedged. As I said, the trick is getting the free bets.



An AP should be slightly risk-averse. Sweating the typical denominations of free bets is beyond the pale.



That's because the casinos do not allow it. This discussion was what if the casinos allowed betting both sides on free-bets. My point was they would be taken by hedging if that was allowed.

As for getting free bets, that is not that difficult. There are any number of ways to do that. Some casinos (Mohegan Sun, Foxwoods, etc) give those away as part of the bus rebate program. Mohegan Sun gives away $60 in match-play and Foxwoods is similar for just a fifteen dollar bus ticket. And while it may seem small potatoes, the AP's as I have pointed out can really strip-mine a casino.

Even gamblers who are not true AP's, (a husband and wife on a field trip for example) will do a simple AP maneuver if they realize they can make guaranteed money. Once the casinos are getting nothing but AP maneuvers, the expected value of the offer goes down. Once again, I'm not talking math, I'm talking people.

Expected value of free-play math-wise unchanged.

Expected value of free-play when 95% of people bet against each other - huge difference.
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
AxiomOfChoice
AxiomOfChoice
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August 29th, 2014 at 10:13:55 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

I understand that however, it's worth more per spin. I was really asking because someone said you win or break even. If you use 2, you win no matter what. (assuming no green) It's probably best not to bet both sides, casinos don't like it and it adds to the discontinuing of the coupons . They know if you are doing that, your goal is probably to walk out the door wit the money.



It's true that it's worth more per spin, but how many coupons do you have? If you have thousands of them and a date later, this might be important. If you have two coupons it doesn't really matter if we are talking about you having to stick around for one spin or two to play them off.

darkoz's statement that by betting on opposite sides "The advantage is now in my favor, not the casinos." is the main statement that I was taking issue with. It doesn't change the advantage.
AxiomOfChoice
AxiomOfChoice
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August 29th, 2014 at 10:20:31 AM permalink
Quote: darkoz

You don't live where I do.

Their are tens of thousands of AP's and yes, they are small stakes players but they swarm on casinos.

A situation where a player is guaranteed to make money will result in the casino being swarmed. And let me make myself clear. These AP's earning ten bucks a pop won't leave with just one shot at ten bucks. They will make repeated daily visits.

The Sands casino in Bensalem learned that the hardway. The AP's took advantage of a bus comp program. The casino scheduled their buses so that no one could make three or four trips (the return bus was passing the incoming bus).

What did the AP's do? They hired a local bus driver to ferry hundreds a day back and forth so they could make EVERY return visit. (The casino was not ID'ing people and the bus comps were simply handed out without using a player's card.)

You're making the mistake of comparing numbers to numbers. You should be comparing people to people. If you have an advantageous situation where I come from the "Expected Value" of players who will show up to take advantage will be higher than those who don't.

I don't use expected value in the mathematical sense but in the physical real world sense. The expected value of an AP situation - lots and lots of pre-determined losses!



You're totally missing the point. Each coupon has a certain value. It doesn't matter how it is played. If they all get played, it does not affect the casino's bottom line whether they are played against each other or not.

Your statement that "the advantage is now in my favor" by playing both sides is not correct. The advantage does not change. Any time you play a free bet coupon, you have an advantage.

If somebody is going every day, and they have two coupons every day, they should not care if they can play them against each other or if they have to play one at a time. After a month or two it will all even out and they will have about the same amount of money. The difference between a guaranteed $10/day and two 50% shots at $10 a day is insignificant if you get it for several days. The swings just aren't that big.

In other words, the problem is not about whether the coupons can be played against each other, it's about whether you are giving too many of them out to people who aren't doing any other play.

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