Dealer Hit VS. Dealer Stand House Edge
Quote: philius99Thanks kewlj for that simple explanation. I feel like a complete dunce.
No need to. We were all at the starting point at one time.
Quote: philius99What does "EV" stand for?
EV stands for effective value. Basically when you make a decision in blackjack your EV is how much money the result of the decision is.
Quote: geoffEV stands for effective value. Basically when you make a decision in blackjack your EV is how much money the result of the decision is.
Expected value.
Quote: geoffEV stands for effective value. Basically when you make a decision in blackjack your EV is how much money the result of the decision is.
EV stands for expected value. It is the arithmetic mean (average) of all possible results, weighted by probability.
Quote: philius99Your Blackjack House Edge indicates that hitting soft 17 is more advantageous to the House than standing. My math sees it differently. If dealer hits soft 17 3 things can happen: 4 out of 12 cards (10, jack, queen, king) stay at 17. 4 cards (Ace, 2, 3, 4) improve the dealer hand. And 5 cards (5,6,7,8,9) bust the dealer hand. Therefore, why is hitting soft 17 advantageous to the house when it appears the opposite is true? Or am I reading your charts incorrectly? Perhaps the 4 chances of dealer hand improvement somehow outweigh the 5 chances of busting.
17 is a bad hand. Hitting soft 17 makes the dealer's Ace significantly stronger. It weakens the 6, but less drastically. Other effects are insignificant.
Quote: geoffEV stands for effective value. Basically when you make a decision in blackjack your EV is how much money the result of the decision is.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5hfYJsQAhl0
Quote: Sonuvabishhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5hfYJsQAhl0
Although EV is "expected value", I can't see any problem with the other statement. If you would like to sell your hand to someone else, the fair price of that hand would be in fact the EV.
Quote: MangoJAlthough EV is "expected value", I can't see any problem with the other statement. If you would like to sell your hand to someone else, the fair price of that hand would be in fact the EV.
That's the link he left in response to one of my posts there was nothing wrong with, I just posted it back to him when he posted something blatantly wrong 5 minutes after the fact. Where were you to defend my post? BTW, I would not normally attack someone's post in such an unhelpful manner--that is his own link.
Thus you might take advantage of a chance to change it. A pair of 9s might be one time. A soft 17 might be another.
You don't hit hard 17 or 18 because you are too likely to bust.
Of course instead BS needs to just be memorized. But thinking this way has helped me get that down.
Quote: odiousgambitI recently decided one of the first steps to playing BJ better is to realize both 17 and 18 are "not good enough".
Thus you might take advantage of a chance to change it. A pair of 9s might be one time. A soft 17 might be another.
You don't hit hard 17 or 18 because you are too likely to bust.
Of course instead BS needs to just be memorized. But thinking this way has helped me get that down.
I believe the break even point for winning is 18 point something (I forget exactly what). But that means if you were to get an 18 on every single hand, you would lose more than you win. If you think about it that way, it might help you split those 9's (18) or hit that A7, when it is the proper play. I mean I am sure any AP doesn't have a problem, but you often see basic strategy players, struggle with hitting, splitting or doubling, hands that total 18, even when they know they should. Once you realize that 18 is a negative EV (losing) hand, it becomes easier to do the right thing.
Quote: odiousgambitI recently decided one of the first steps to playing BJ better is to realize both 17 and 18 are "not good enough".
Thus you might take advantage of a chance to change it. A pair of 9s might be one time. A soft 17 might be another.
You don't hit hard 17 or 18 because you are too likely to bust.
Of course instead BS needs to just be memorized. But thinking this way has helped me get that down.
Hard 17 is one of the worst hands in the game. Any non-stiff hand is better like 6, and 12 is stronger against more cards. You never stand on Soft 17.
Surrendering a hard 17 is appropriate for most games where the dealer will hit a soft 17 (H17). That means the expected value (EV) is less than .5, so you are better off (statistically, in the long run) getting half your bet back that continuing play. That's how bad a hard 17 is! (Just expanding on your post for the general readers,)Quote: SonuvabishHard 17 is one of the worst hands in the game. Any non-stiff hand is better like 6, and 12 is stronger against more cards. You never stand on Soft 17.
