roulette betting pattern

I'll be surprised if gr8 comes back. He didn't like
me pointing out he's been doing this on other
forums for years. He loves to argue and brag
about his superiority, thats why he's here. How
he finds time to go to the casino is a mystery.

The thing that baffles me is that his positions aren't even debatable. Like when he claims that he's an AP who can get an edge at baccarat by simply following trends?? He doesn't sound stupid either, which makes it all the more puzzling.

Quote: Beethoven9th

The thing that baffles me is that his positions aren't even debatable. Like when he claims that he's an AP who can get an edge at baccarat by simply following trends?? He doesn't sound stupid either, which makes it all the more puzzling.

gr8 is that character in Catch 22 that Yossarian tries
to strangle because no matter what you say to him,
he keeps going on and on and won't go away.

Quote: EvenBob

gr8 is that character in Catch 22 that Yossarian tries
to strangle because no matter what you say to him,
he keeps going on and on and won't go away.

LOL

Let's try to restrict ourselves to statements about the person's positions rather than the person himself.

Quote: Mission146

I believe the official Gambler's Glen slogan is, "Here's an amusing thread."

Hmmmm......you were keen to throw a little fuel on the fire with this little barb, eh, Mission146.....and only now you're calling for some "forum protocol"???

Thanks...but, no thanks...I can fend rather well for myself.

Quote: EvenBob

I'll be surprised if gr8 comes back. He didn't like
me pointing out he's been doing this on other
forums for years. He loves to argue and brag
about his superiority, thats why he's here. How
he finds time to go to the casino is a mystery.

No, EvenBob, I certainly do not "love to argue". Frankly, given my rather limited computer access, I find it rather wasteful. But when I feel the need to either clarify or even defend my position regarding this game and my approach(es) to it, I will willingly engage that conversation.

And the "superiority" comment, EvenBob? Superior to whom, exactly? This is a gambling forum, and I'm discussing my Baccarat play with, I should hope, like-minded individuals; there is no sense of superiority on my part. If you happen to perceive my posts as such, I'm afraid that's more your problem than it is mine.

As to "finding time to play"....yes, my casino access is rather limited....but, this being Thursday....tonight and tomorrow it's AC for me!

Quote: Beethoven9th

The thing that baffles me is that his positions aren't even debatable. Like when he claims that he's an AP who can get an edge at baccarat by simply following trends?? He doesn't sound stupid either, which makes it all the more puzzling.

"Simply following trends", Beethoven9th? You know better than that, my friend. My play involves SO MUCH MORE than "simply following trends".

It is so much more about the "maneuvering of money" (read: money-management); betting, no-betting, and unit-size adjusting. All based upon the statistics that each of my trend plays carry, and their current performances. I "maneuver my money" accordingly.

Quote: gr8player

All based upon the statistics that each of my trend plays carry, and their current performances.

Of course, those statistics are completely, totally, and in all ways meaningless. The past doesn't impact the future in baccarat...

Quote: rdw4potus

Of course, those statistics are completely, totally, and in all ways meaningless. The past doesn't impact the future in baccarat...

That's not fair, rdw4potus.....

It's OK for the casino math to work for you (read: the house edge)....those statistics are just fine for you....but you render mine as "meaningless".

The reason? Mine are nebulous. Not quite as clear-cut as the house edge. OK. I'll give you that.

My reaction? Conservatism.

In those more difficult sessions, I'll slow my roll. I back off, not press on. Why?

Because my plays are proven winners for me....it is ONLY A MATTER OF TIME.

Thos difficult sessions become winners for me....EVENTUALLY. May not be next shoe, may not be this session, may not be this day, but EVENTUALLY...

Now, let's step back a moment, shall we? Isn't it the casino's position, with their daunted house edge in their back pocket, that all those short-term winners will EVENTUALLY lose it all back due to that very edge?

So it works for them but cannot work for me....that appears as your position, rdw4potus. Fine. You're an intelligent man, and I respect your belief. You've got the clear-cut math on your side, while I, again, deal in the nebulous. I can totally understand your confusion with my position, maybe even some ambiguity.

Quote: gr8player

That's not fair, rdw4potus.....

It's OK for the casino math to work for you (read: the house edge)....those statistics are just fine for you....but you render mine as "meaningless".

The reason? Mine are nebulous. Not quite as clear-cut as the house edge. OK. I'll give you that.

Oh, please. Theirs are based on actual math. Yours are based on superstition, on myth. It's as simple as that.

Superstition? Myth?

I utilize certain statistics (avg win/loss streaks and variance from the mean) on each of my preferred trend plays, and you relegate that as "superstition" and/or "myth".......

......what makes that so, rdw4potus? Is it strictly because you deem it thus?

Hmmmm.....methinks I'll go right on continuing my Bac play, as is. Superstitions and myths notwithstanding.

Quote: gr8player

Superstition? Myth?

I utilize certain statistics (avg win/loss streaks and variance from the mean) on each of my preferred trend plays, and you relegate that as "superstition" and/or "myth".......

......what makes that so, rdw4potus? Is it strictly because you deem it thus?

Hmmmm.....methinks I'll go right on continuing my Bac play, as is. Superstitions and myths notwithstanding.

Your whole system is based on the myth that past results - your "certain statistics" - will impact the outcome of future hands. That belief is a superstition, and is verifiably incorrect.

Quote: gr8player

Hmmmm......you were keen to throw a little fuel on the fire with this little barb, eh, Mission146.....and only now you're calling for some "forum protocol"???

Thanks...but, no thanks...I can fend rather well for myself.

Yeah, I threw a little barb at a Forum, on the whole, rather than any individual(s).

It's interesting that you should have a problem with my Moderation, even when I was endeavoring to encourage people to make arguments against your betting strategy rather than at you personally.

Quote: rdw4potus

Your whole system is based on the myth that past results - your "certain statistics" - will impact the outcome of future hands. That belief is a superstition, and is verifiably incorrect.

gr8 uses a special 'math' that contradicts the
real math used by everybody else. What he
actually does is curve fit his results to conform
to his expectations. Very common and very
hard to convince the person doing it that his
results are skewed.

Quote: Mission146

Yeah, I threw a little barb at a Forum, on the whole, rather than any individual(s).

It's interesting that you should have a problem with my Moderation, even when I was endeavoring to encourage people to make arguments against your betting strategy rather than at you personally.

Mission, you of all people, should know there are only believers and non-believers.

Quote: gr8player

"Simply following trends", Beethoven9th? You know better than that, my friend. My play involves SO MUCH MORE than "simply following trends".

It is so much more about the "maneuvering of money" (read: money-management); betting, no-betting, and unit-size adjusting. All based upon the statistics that each of my trend plays carry, and their current performances. I "maneuver my money" accordingly.

So you can beat baccarat by...............money management?!?! *facepalm*

EvenBob: >What he actually does is curve fit his results to conform to his expectations.<

Nope, sorry, EvenBob, you've got it backwards.

The reality is, given my patient and disciplined play, the actual results conform to my expecations. If they didn't, I would cease playing this game. I don't play to lose. I work hard for my money, and that holds true both at work and at Baccarat. I'm not there to lose, and, know this, I am nobody's fool.

Witness Friday afternoon's session:

Struggle. I was never ahead, not one dollar. My largest drawdown was 8 uints. Again, nothing terrible, but it appeared as if I was fighting an uphill battle from the start. My reaction:

(Well, first, a Sidenote: Make no mistake of it, my friends, what will DEFINE your long term play at the tables is HOW YOU REACT to your negative variances.)

I sat out. About the last third of the first shoe, when my trends were failing me, I sat out.

Next shoe, I was rewarded for my discipline, and recouped 75% of my prior loss; so I began the 3rd shoe down 2 units.

And I ground it back, slowly....ever so slowly, because, again, this just didn't appear as "my" day....and finally quit mid-shoe at Plus 1 unit (after comm and tips).

You see, on sessions and/or days such as these, loss prevention/bankroll preservation becomes paramount.

Winning? Heck, winning's the easy part, relatively. Again, it's those variance downturns....and your ANSWER/REACTION to them....that'll truly serve to define your long term success as a Baccarat player.

Quote: Beethoven9th

So you can beat baccarat by...............money management?!?! *facepalm*

"facepalm", Beethoven9th? What's that, some new internet lingo? I'm a computer illiterate, so, if you care to, maybe you can enlighten me.

But, first, I'll endeavor to enlighten you:

No, money-management, alone, will not suffice to "beat baccarat".

IMHO, it's all got to tie in neatly with a proven and statistically-sound (read: tight variance) bet selection process.

And, even then, you'll need the necessary patience and discipline combined with strategic "start and stop" points.....my friend, suffice to say, in order to have any chance at long term success at this game, it takes the "entire package".

I wish it for all of you.

So money management AND being patient are all one needs to win at baccarat?

If that's true, why so afraid of the challenge?

Quote: gr8player

Nope, sorry, EvenBob, you've got it backwards.

.

Nope, I don't. You can't claim to beat the math,
and not be curve fitting your results. You're
adding 2+2 and coming up with 5. This puzzles
you, so you curve fit until 5 makes perfect sense.
Happens every day with system players.

Hi gr8player,
Just joint today, but have been reading for a while.
Thank you for all your great insights and admire your posts.
I have this one back to you. See if you agree with me.
P BB PPPPP bet B on this one. 52.72% for me.
I share a lot of the same approach as you are in Bac game.
Please don't let a few post discourage you from posting.
Challenge !!!!!!!!!!!! How silly is that. Do we need to prove anything?
It is only a few and far between understand what you are talking about.

Quote: kubikulann

You know, there's the scientific answer (no memory = independence, calculate the house edge = expectation, etc.).

Yes. Scientifically, its red or black or green and the odds never change. We hope to "catch a wave" of luck. We are not surfing in Malibu however. Once there is money on the table and a broad on your arm, you are dealing with hope not cold calculating mathematics.

Quote: kubikulann

But most of the people asking these questions are not looking for science (or truth). They want to know whether *something* in the human mind is able to foresee the result of a random event. Most gamblers (races, baccarat, roulette,...) seem to be playing as if 'catching' in the air some revelation of what is coming up next. And when losing, they don't put it on pure chance, they think 'I guessed wrong'. Of course when winning they say 'I knew it!'.
I make it sound silly, but there is a real and important question here, about the profound nature of reality: deterministic or random, synchronicities and the like. My personal view is that, even if there IS something in the way of correlations, we are not hard-wired into that kind of guessing, so why bother.
But who knows...

We hope we will evade a speeding ticket as we lead foot it along the road. Surely it happens often enough to reinforce our expectation. We do not coldly assess our chances, for the results of that inquiry disturb us. We run into machine gun fire trusting to our luck. We know there may be bandits ahead but we proceed trusting to our luck and our skills. We have hope that is not necessarily founded on precise rational evidence-supported experience. It is our hope that perceives a "trend" and our hope that such a "trend" will continue just long enough for us to prosper by it. It is our hope and humor that causes us to go with the trend in the face of knowing that Red and Black are equally likely with each and every spin, any "trend" to the contrary notwithstanding.

Quote: jhousetc

Hi gr8player,
Just joint today, but have been reading for a while.
Thank you for all your great insights and admire your posts.
I have this one back to you. See if you agree with me.
P BB PPPPP bet B on this one. 52.72% for me.
I share a lot of the same approach as you are in Bac game.
Please don't let a few post discourage you from posting.
Challenge !!!!!!!!!!!! How silly is that. Do we need to prove anything?
It is only a few and far between understand what you are talking about.

Welcome to the forum, jhousetc.

While your pattern example, P BB PPPPP is not one of my preferred plays, I can offer you some insight as to how I'd play for it. I'd have been on the Player's side from the 3rd P on down. Why? Because it happens to be a trend that I call an "opposite run", where the side that was "singling" (note that single P preceding the double B's) then begins a run of at least 2 at its next appearance. I'd look for that "opposite run" to continue. So, jhousetc, where you'd have been betting for the B side after that 5th P, I'd have my money on that P-run continuance.

It bears noting that whenever one bets with a streak, they are wrong only once, at streak's end. Contrarily, betting against a streak would see that player lose each bet of the run's continuance.

It bears further noting that I don't bet for those trends (or any trend, for that matter) "blindly". IOW, if the prior high-top for any P-run had been only a 3, I'd cease betting for the run after the 3rd P. Then, should the 4th P hit, I call that a "new top", and would procede to bet for that P-run to continue. Again, my profit potential is in the length of that P run; my loss, however, is limited to one at streak's end.

Again, welcome to the forum.

Quote: gr8player

It bears further noting that I don't bet for those trends (or any trend, for that matter) "blindly". IOW, if the prior high-top for any P-run had been only a 3, I'd cease betting for the run after the 3rd P. Then, should the 4th P hit, I call that a "new top", and would procede to bet for that P-run to continue. Again, my profit potential is in the length of that P run; my loss, however, is limited to one at streak's end.

Or he could just flip a coin (which would give him equal or better results than your system).

Hello, FleaStiff.

Yes, as gamblers, we are in fact always "hoping" for the best. There's no denying that. May this shoe trend well, and conform nicely to my preferred plays. Sure, we're always hoping for the best.

But, please know, FleaStiff, that the "best" is the easy part. Any shmuck and their brother can win, given ideal circumstances and results.

Unfortunately, wins do not define our play. Never have and never will. Believe me, I wish they did. I win many more sessions than I lose. It, frankly, is no contest.

Ahhh, but here's the rub:

The "worst". S*it happens. You know it, I know it, we all know it.

While we all like to expect the best, we'd better be prepared for the "worst". We'd better have an answer to it. And that answer cannot include chasing our losses 'til total meltdown, both of bankroll and psyche.

No, we need a better, more constructive answer to our "worst" than that if we are to survive this Baccarat jungle.

So we learn to recognize when most of those, as you put it just above, "equally likely P and B outcomes" are falling more to the casino's side. When it's clear that this shoe, that this session, that this day.....is a prime time for "cutting our losses".

So what do the very best of us do in these bitter circumstances?

We learn how to lose. We learn how to walk with a superficial cut as opposed to getting our heads blown off.

THAT IS WHAT WILL, IN FACT, DEFINE YOUR PLAY. Not our wins. Winning is the relatively easy part.

I wish it for all of you.

Thank you for your reply, gr8player.

I am in total agreement with you on streaks.

Quote:

It bears noting that whenever one bets with a streak, they are wrong only once, at streak's end. Contrarily, betting against a streak would see that player lose each bet of the run's continuance.

I have a few questions for your opinion.

1. If the start of the shoe begin with 7 B's. At what point do you start your bet? (if you bet any at all)
2. How many units lost before you quit that shoe; or if you quit that shoe at all?
3. Do you play till the end of the shoe?
4. Do you look at B & P history in a shoe independently, combine together or both?

Thank you again for your reply.


“I have not failed. I’ve just found 10,000 ways that won’t work.”
Thomas A. Edison