[Blackjack] Wizard of Odds, could you PLEASE answer this question?

Sir, how do you do?

First of all, I'd like to say that I learned a lot about blackjack because of your website 'Wizard of Odds'. So, I'd like to show my respect by saying thank you in advance. Allow me to simply introduce myself. I'd like to dedicate my life to become a professional gambler in blackjack.

The reason why I am writing this is the following: I unfortunately can NOT do the card counting. Since I am Korean, the only casino I am allowed to visit legally is the casino in Kangwon; however, the house ONLY has CSM. So, before contacting you, I had no other option other than using two tools on your website: 'Basic Strategy' (I memorized every little detail your website has mentioned including the Basic strategy exception for 3 to 6 cards) and the 'Realistic Results' of the House Edge (which was 0.38699%). With these tools, the ONLY way I thought I was able to make money, I thought, was bet variation. (Although you said no betting system will work clearly) With my little knowledge of probability, I found out that if the dealer wins two or three time straight, then I have the LONG-TERM probability of winning the next game a little bit less than 75% and a little bit more than 85% respectively. (This is my finding, so please correct me if I am wrong.) So, read in the book talking about the probability that the odds won't be a matter unless the player played 25 consecutive times or less, I've played using simulator (I had to play each hand manually because I didn't know how to set the programming automatically) 25 times betting the minimum, then every time I lost twice or three times consecutively, I've increased my bet to maximum. However, the results were horrible. A few times, I've done really well; however, mostly I just lost a little (if I stopped as soon as I lost my first maximum bet) to all (if I kept on playing the same way). Thus, I'd have to admit what you said about the Basic Strategy; one cannot become a long-term winner.

I've done some research myself and I was able to read two professional gamblers' advice to become a long-term winner. First one said that in order to become a winner, I should not play in Casino long; the other professional's advice was to play only once or twice out of 10 games, 15 games out of 100 games. However, as you can see, these statements are not as specific as the Basic Strategy. (e.g. which timing? How can I mathematically know the right timing?)

Since I've got enough extra money, I can endure short-term loss; however, I'd like to know the way to become a long-term winner. Is it impossible for me to become a long-term winner? I know probably millions of people would be wanting to ask this from you, so I tried to solve this dilemma myself by not bugging you till this last minute. However, I am stuck and I am desperate.

Thank you so much in advance and I hope to hear from you soon; also, I thank you in advance for your time.

Quote: neophytest

With my little knowledge of probability, I found out that if the dealer wins two or three time straight, then I have the LONG-TERM probability of winning the next game a little bit less than 75% and a little bit more than 85% respectively. (This is my finding, so please correct me if I am wrong.)

This is incorrect. Besides a very small negative correlation between the results of subsequent hands, your long-term probability of winning the next hand does not depend on the dealer's results in past hands.

Quote: neophytest

Is it impossible for me to become a long-term winner?

Against a CSM, it is effectively impossible. You should only gamble for fun.

Thank you so much for the reply.

If CSM is effectively impossible to beat, then the only option I have left is to go for Baccarat; Poker, I looked at it and you need to be able to read people's mind by catching micro-expression on the other people's face. Honestly, I cannot hide my feeling well enough to become a good player. Slot machine, a word borrowed from Wizard of Odds, is the sucker's game.

Could you please at least teach me the right way to become a professional gambler in Baccarat, then?

Again, thank you for your reply.

The very first step should be game selection. If you had the choice between Baccarat and poker, I would choose the latter.

Would you mind telling me why Poker?

because baccarat, like blackjack, is a series of independent events. It's impossible to get an edge in baccarat.

Thank you very much for your answer. I'll begin studying Poker instead of trying to beat the CSM in blackjack.

Once again, thank you for your time. I mean it.

Quote: neophytest

Thank you very much for your answer. I'll begin studying Poker instead of trying to beat the CSM in blackjack.

Once again, thank you for your time. I mean it.

Cathy Hulbert said in Gambling Wizards that it took
her 4 years of practice and instruction before she
was good enough to make a profit playing poker.
And she had the best teachers money can buy.

I agree with the other posters. If you want to play a game where it is possible to be a longterm winner, it must be poker. However, it will take most people years of practice and study to become good enough. It is probably better to dedicate yourself to a career you enjoy.

Neophytest, the respectful manner in which you have approached the Wizard may gain you his audience, but he often confesses he is unable to read every submission.

I have some advice

You may know that the "Wizard of Odds" is a play on the title of the movie "The Wizard of Oz". As in that movie, the real man is somewhere underneath all the trappings and is as kind and earnest as anyone you'd ever meet I'm sure. The task is to get past all the protective internet regalia for your rewarding consultation. However, he may be put off by some evidence that your studies are incomplete, or, worse, that other influences of which he does not approve are evident. Else, as in the movie, you are sent off into the wilderness, or worse, to make repairs until worthy.

Quote:

With my little knowledge of probability, I found out that if the dealer wins two or three time straight, then I have the LONG-TERM probability of winning the next game a little bit less than 75% and a little bit more than 85% respectively.

Where did this idea come from? It sounds like a form of Gambler's Fallacy. Although you go on to say you have rejected it, the Wizard will no doubt be scandalized that you were associated with the idea at any time and read no more. Please research various Gambler's Fallacies and speak of them not to the Wizard!

Quote:

I've done some research myself and I was able to read two professional gamblers' advice to become a long-term winner. First one said that in order to become a winner, I should not play in Casino long; the other professional's advice was to play only once or twice out of 10 games, 15 games out of 100 games. However, as you can see, these statements are not as specific as the Basic Strategy. (e.g. which timing? How can I mathematically know the right timing?)

The Wizard often advises that a player should avoid advice from other gamblers and also dealers. It seems to be true that, counter-intuitively, the average person immersed into this activity learns all the wrong lessons but, perversely, becomes convinced his experience has taught him truths others do not know. The very existence of the websites the Wizard has created is largely dedicated to the premise that the mountain of such misinformation about gambling must be challenged by enlightenment. Another source for misinformation is the mendacity of greedy predators, who abound, alas!

There are circumstances in which gamblers can win in the long term, but I am afraid there is too much evidence you are on the wrong track. In particular you must drop the idea that some betting system can work for you. If you keep researching the various Wizard sites you will start to come around, I think. In particular you must purge all influence of betting systems, fallacies, and gratuitous unworthy sources of misinformation. You simply must cease appearing to be a fool, or, as in the movie, your treatment will not be what you want. This information is fully available but requires diligent study. Get purged!

It sounds to me like you're trying to be a long-term winner in a game with a negative expectation via a betting system. Sorry, it is mathematically impossible. You need to gain a legitimate advantage somehow, for example in card counting, which you already eliminated. There are other advantage plays, but they are also hard. If they were easy, everybody would be doing them.

I thank you so much for taking your time answering my question.

As other member of your website has mentioned, I need and want to stop thinking about non-mathematical ways; you have saved me from the betting system trap I was in. Pardon me, though as you can see, I was quite desperate.

I am not trying to eliminate or discredit card counting; it is just impossible because the house that I can legitimately enter only uses CSM. So, please pardon me if I ever gave you the impression that card counting is not working. That was never my intention when asking you a question.

Given the situation I am in, would you please just direct me to the right other advantage plays? I'd appreciate it if you could do that for me.

Sir, thank you for your advice, first of all.

My point was simple. I, too, wanted to use counting because that is the only method I KNOW that works mathematically. Unfortunately, the house I can enter legitimately ONLY uses CSM when it comes to Blackjack. Given that I memorised 'Basic Strategy', I studied House Edge for the Wizard says it is not enough to beat the odds. From there, I got the idea of "Gambler's Fallacy'. Now I totally gave up on that idea taking yours and the Wizard's advice. I thought that way out of desperation. Please pardon me.

My study WAS incomplete; I admit it. However, it is very difficult for me to find the right source to be enlightened. So, I've asked about it to the Wizard to point me to the right direction.

Once again, thank you for your advice; I too want to be on the right track, so I've given up on the methods I've mentioned in the beginning.

Quote: neophytest

Given the situation I am in, would you please just direct me to the right other advantage plays? I'd appreciate it if you could do that for me.

It is consence that there isn't much value in playing Baccarat. Although you can card-count in baccarat, you would need a very deep penetration and lots of patience.
As it has been said before, the way better option than baccarat is poker.

Of course this is hard work, and there is no guarantee you will succeed in this journey. But given the option it is the most promising way.

Quote: neophytest

would you please just direct me to the right other advantage plays? I'd appreciate it if you could do that for me.

I highly recommend apheat.net for the latest advantage plays.

Quote: neophytest

would you please just direct me to the right other advantage plays?

Well, we have an eager neophyte for sure!

I think in your frustration, waiting for an answer, you will misinterpret why there is reluctance to reply [edit: some replies came in while I posted this]. A glib reply is easy, but people are probably wary of misleading you. For one thing, you need to realize the casinos do not exist in order to offer these opportunities. The people who run them are excessively concerned about it; if you become an advantage player, you will not be welcome. So, how to advise someone to work a maze where there are landmines? Just avoiding casino heat is not the only problem you will have; what one player considers fair play may even be considered criminal by someone else. Does one person want someone else to indulge in unsavory behavior?

There is also the problem of marginal benefit. One player might seem to be able to do well while 99 others see the activity as a waste of time. Good situations come and go.

There is also the problem of being unfamiliar with your local situation.

I would advise you to approach slowly. You may decide the life is not for you, or decide to only become a recreational gambler.

Poker is beat-able, but it's certainly not EASY money.

Based on your mindset about gambling you do not have what it takes. I'm not trying to be mean, just truthful. However, with lots of studying and work, that can change.

Just recognize that it will be hard work to become a winning player. Trust me, it's not easy. Even when you think you're finally a winning player, a few months later you learn a whole lot more if you actually put in the time and effort.... and read, A LOT. And then you're left wondering how you didn't figure those things out originally, and how much money you were costing yourself....



IMO, professional gambling is a really tough job. So unless you love the game you're going to play enough to be almost obsessed with learning it.... you won't be successful.

Thank you, SIR!

Thank you, SIR!