Craps gambling question

What the percentage you'll make a 7 or 11 on the come out roll ?


your site says:
The probability of winning on the come out roll is pr(7)+pr(11) = 6/36 + 2/36 = 8/36.

I got .222222..., is that it?

or is it 2.78 + 16.67 = 19.45% ?


Tried to find it on your site.

Thanks
Ben Jammin

22.22% is correct. Your other method would have worked but it looks like you added 1/36 (2.78%) instead of 2/36 (5.56%).

7 + 11 = 8/36 = 2/9 = 22.2222%

ok so if you have a 22.22% chance on winning on the pass line come out roll then why don't more players up their bets?

How about the don't pass? Due to the 12 being a push, what are the odds of NOT getting a 7 or 11 on the come out don't pass roll?

I've often heard if you make the don't pass roll you're home free.
True?

I'll bet a don't pass and if I get a 4 or 10 it's max odds all the way.

Quote: BenJammin

I've often heard if you make the don't pass roll you're home free.

A Don'tBet faces the highest hurdle there is: the rolling of a 7 is the most probable event. Once you are past that initial hurdle, then the advantage shifts to the bettor. But there is no such thing as being home free. Merely because there is a greater likelihood of a 7 being rolled does not mean that the point won't be rolled.

Quote: BenJammin

ok so if you have a 22.22% chance on winning on the pass line come out roll then why don't more players up their bets?

How about the don't pass? Due to the 12 being a push, what are the odds of NOT getting a 7 or 11 on the come out don't pass roll?

I've often heard if you make the don't pass roll you're home free.
True?

I'll bet a don't pass and if I get a 4 or 10 it's max odds all the way.

More people don't up their Pass Line bets because they'd rather use their money for the odds. In the long run, you'll do better with a $5 PL with $5 odds than a $10 PL bet.

There's a lot of different ways to look at the outcome of a Don't Pass come out roll.

Odds of winning on the DP (2 or 3) = 1/36 + 2/36 = 3/36 = 1/12 = 8.33%
Odds of NOT hitting a 7 or 11 (2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10, 12) = 100% - 22.22% = 77.77%
Odds of pushing (12) = 1/36 = 2.77%
Odds of a point hitting (4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10) = 3/36 + 4/36 + 5/36 + 5/36 + 4/36 + 3/36 = 24/36 = 2/3 = 66.66%
Odds of a 4 or 10 point being rolled = 3/36 + 3/36 = 6/36 = 1/6 = 16.66%

Making the Don't Pass roll means you're home free? Well, the odds are definitely in your favor.
Just looking at the DP winning by 4 or 10 losing (7 before established point of 4 or 10):
7 out (you win) (7 hits) = 6 possible outcome
Point made (4 or 10 hits, you lose) = 3 possible outcomes
Total outcomes = 9
Win = 6/9 = 66.66%
Lose = 3/9 = 33.33%

Laying max odds on a 4 or 10, you are twice as likely to win than lose, so you only get paid half your odds bet.
Don't Pass bet: $5
Don't Pass odds laid: $50 (max)
Total payout: $55 (original bet) + $5 (Don't Pass) + $25 (odds laid) = $85 (profit $30)

Quote: BenJammin

ok so if you have a 22.22% chance on winning on the pass line come out roll then why don't more players up their bets?

Because there's also the 4/36 = 11.11% chance of losing the come out, and then a better than even chance of hitting a 7 before the point.

Quote: BenJammin

what are the odds of NOT getting a 7 or 11 on the come out don't pass roll?

28/36 = 77.77%

Quote: BenJammin

I've often heard if you make the don't pass roll you're home free.

"Home free?" Not at all. Oh, sure you're looking good because you're more likely to hit that 7 than the point, but by no means home free.



Bottom line: The pass and come bets have a 1.41% overall chance of losing.
And, because of the 12 push, the don't has a 1.36% overall chance of losing.

It's all there in black and white: https://wizardofodds.com/craps

Suppose you have $300 to bet on each come out roll. If you put it on the pass line you have an expected loss of $4.24. If you put $50 on the pass line you have an expected loss of 71 cents. You can then put the remaining $250 on an odds bet where there is no house advantage.

If you put it all on the pass line you will double it immediately 2 out of 9 times, and lose it all 1 time out of 9. However, the other 7 out of 9 times you can only get paid 1:1 if you make your point.

Your intuition should tell you that in general you should bet the most amount of money on a bet with no house edge.

Paco is right. But most craps player will spread the love by doing place bets and/or come bets (or the opposite). It gives them more action and less variance in general.

The problem with craps is that if you don't play it enough you start kicking yourself in hindsight for making what you think are dumb bets. For example, that $300 bet: if you decide to put $50 on pass and then back it up with $250 odds, you'll kick yourself if a shooter does a come out roll of 7-7-7, then rolls a point, then 7 outs ("I could have been up $600, but I'm down $200!".

My advice is that you play the game in a matter that's comfortable for you where you get enough action, can handle the variance, and understand the advantage of every bet and avoid the stupid ones.