Quick Pick vs. Self Pick
September 1st, 2012 at 2:39:02 PM
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In Canada there is a national lottery called LottoMAX in which you select 7 numbers from 1 - 49. Each ticket is $5 and contains three sets of seven numbers. When you choose the quick pick option your three sets of numbers often contain numbers that are common to 2 or all three sets. For example, my most recent quick pick ticket had the following numbers:
13 14 21 22 28 35 43
05 21 22 25 26 27 30
08 10 13 22 27 33 48
As you can see the number 22 appears in all three sets. Also 13, 21, and 27 appear in two sets respectively. Is it better to choose your numbers yourself to avoid numbers that are common to your three sets? Does having numbers common to the three sets reduce your overall chances of winning?
13 14 21 22 28 35 43
05 21 22 25 26 27 30
08 10 13 22 27 33 48
As you can see the number 22 appears in all three sets. Also 13, 21, and 27 appear in two sets respectively. Is it better to choose your numbers yourself to avoid numbers that are common to your three sets? Does having numbers common to the three sets reduce your overall chances of winning?
September 1st, 2012 at 3:04:45 PM
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It is much harder to win with a quick pick. Think about it, what are the odds that the lotto is going to give you the winning numbers? They don't want you to win. They want the prize to carry over, get bigger, and then sell more tickets. Your odds have got to be 3 or 4 times better when you pick the numbers yourself
Vote for Nobody 2020!
September 1st, 2012 at 3:05:12 PM
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I assume the prize numbers are selected via a "corn popper" device that blows air and the numbered "ping-pong" balls randomly get ejected. If so, ask yourself if any of those ping pong balls are likely to some animosity towards their neighbors and not want to accompany them to the prize tube?
Your chances are what? One in a fifty million ... do you really think it would make a difference?
Oh.. and what do you think the odds are that any of those air blown ping pong balls are going to say "No! Choose someone else, otherwise we won't roll over for next week's drawing."?
Your chances are what? One in a fifty million ... do you really think it would make a difference?
Oh.. and what do you think the odds are that any of those air blown ping pong balls are going to say "No! Choose someone else, otherwise we won't roll over for next week's drawing."?
September 1st, 2012 at 3:06:54 PM
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The good news is that the odds of winning are roughly the same whether or not you buy a ticket.
Vote for Nobody 2020!
September 1st, 2012 at 3:16:46 PM
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Quote: bigfoot66It is much harder to win with a quick pick. Think about it, what are the odds that the lotto is going to give you the winning numbers? They don't want you to win. They want the prize to carry over, get bigger, and then sell more tickets. Your odds have got to be 3 or 4 times better when you pick the numbers yourself
Nice level.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
September 1st, 2012 at 6:09:39 PM
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My advice on "quick pick vs. self pick" is, it depends.
If you're going to play just once, I would go for a self pick, if only to make sure I avoid sets of numbers that might be "popular" - for example, I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of one-child couples play "birthdays and ages," so expect a lot of sets where three of the numbers are in 1-31.
If you're going to play multiple times, I would go for a quick pick, as you don't run the risk of stopping, only to see your numbers come up in the next draw.
As for your overall chance of winning, it is "reduced" only if you play the same set of numbers twice - and even then, only if you win the jackpot and are the only winner. (If another person has the same numbers, then, as far as the lottery is concerned, there were three winning sets of numbers, and you have two of them, so you get 2/3 of the jackpot.)
If you're going to play just once, I would go for a self pick, if only to make sure I avoid sets of numbers that might be "popular" - for example, I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of one-child couples play "birthdays and ages," so expect a lot of sets where three of the numbers are in 1-31.
If you're going to play multiple times, I would go for a quick pick, as you don't run the risk of stopping, only to see your numbers come up in the next draw.
As for your overall chance of winning, it is "reduced" only if you play the same set of numbers twice - and even then, only if you win the jackpot and are the only winner. (If another person has the same numbers, then, as far as the lottery is concerned, there were three winning sets of numbers, and you have two of them, so you get 2/3 of the jackpot.)
September 2nd, 2012 at 6:06:39 PM
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With this lotto, even when you self pick you can only choose 1 combos of 7 numbers and you still get 2 combos that are quick picks. So to get 3 combos of self picked numbers, you need to purchase 3 tickets. Either way, I don't see how much better off you are than quick picks.
Having doubles isn't a bad thing if those numbers hit, it can make one ticket into a bigger winner than it would have been otherwise.
Having doubles isn't a bad thing if those numbers hit, it can make one ticket into a bigger winner than it would have been otherwise.
September 2nd, 2012 at 6:46:11 PM
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Regarding duplicates, whether it affects your overall chance of winning depends on what you mean by "winning." If you just mean the top prize, no, it doesn't. What you've basically got in that case are three different numbers that share some digits. Counting smaller prizes, yes, your chance decreases slightly, but you also have a slightly higher chance of winning multiple times. Basically it's all about the number of winning combinations.
If you must play lottery games, you're usually better off with Keno, anyway, and after that, the numbers, not the big lotteries. My state's Keno game I'm pretty sure has a lower edge than both the nearby casinos' (I've only run the math for a few numbers), and a 12-spot hit is a million, or two for $2. (More than that, from all players, and it's split, although I can't imagine that happens enough to be worth considering.)
If you must play lottery games, you're usually better off with Keno, anyway, and after that, the numbers, not the big lotteries. My state's Keno game I'm pretty sure has a lower edge than both the nearby casinos' (I've only run the math for a few numbers), and a 12-spot hit is a million, or two for $2. (More than that, from all players, and it's split, although I can't imagine that happens enough to be worth considering.)
The trick to poker is learning not to beat yourself up for your mistakes too much, and certainly not too little, but just the right amount.
October 25th, 2012 at 8:59:53 AM
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What do you call "overall chances of winning"?
It should be clear that the expected gain is theoretically the same. No BS about the lottery handing you 'bad' numbers.
(But then Neither is the gain identical if you don't play. bigfoot seems totally out of his senses. Ron Paul? Pfff! )
Now probabilities of winning something are less if the same number appears more than once... but this is compensated by the fact that there are more instances where you win on two or three sets at once. You shouldn't view that as 'reducing the chances of winning'. They are simply reorganised among the cases.
Up till here, no (practical) difference between self and quick.
But...
If the jackpot is divided up among winners, then you want to be alone when winning. So IF you have info on the patterns played by others, you should play what the others don't. In that case, you are better off self-picking, provided you pick the right numbers. On the contrary, self-picking in order to avoid playing common numbers will put you in the same scumbag as the hoi polloi, and you probably have a lower expected gain. You definitely want common numbers: because unaware self-pickers tend to shy from them.
It should be clear that the expected gain is theoretically the same. No BS about the lottery handing you 'bad' numbers.
(But then Neither is the gain identical if you don't play. bigfoot seems totally out of his senses. Ron Paul? Pfff! )
Now probabilities of winning something are less if the same number appears more than once... but this is compensated by the fact that there are more instances where you win on two or three sets at once. You shouldn't view that as 'reducing the chances of winning'. They are simply reorganised among the cases.
Up till here, no (practical) difference between self and quick.
But...
If the jackpot is divided up among winners, then you want to be alone when winning. So IF you have info on the patterns played by others, you should play what the others don't. In that case, you are better off self-picking, provided you pick the right numbers. On the contrary, self-picking in order to avoid playing common numbers will put you in the same scumbag as the hoi polloi, and you probably have a lower expected gain. You definitely want common numbers: because unaware self-pickers tend to shy from them.
Reperiet qui quaesiverit
October 25th, 2012 at 10:44:42 PM
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Kubikulann, I think you missed bigfoot's sarcasm. And saying something like "Ron Paul? Pfff!" only makes you look arrogant. (Since you probably wouldn't take time to logically reason why you don't like Paul - especially in this setting - it's best that you just didn't bring it up)
But you are completely right on that last part. (Except that lotto play won't produce an expected gain, but an expected loss, in all instances except during rare promotions.)
But you are completely right on that last part. (Except that lotto play won't produce an expected gain, but an expected loss, in all instances except during rare promotions.)
October 25th, 2012 at 11:18:51 PM
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When it comes to a lottery, winning means "a humungous prize". Only the lottery vendors consider the dribs and drabs of five dollars as a "win".Quote: 24BingoRegarding duplicates, whether it affects your overall chance of winning depends on what you mean by "winning."
October 26th, 2012 at 2:33:04 AM
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this recently happened in HK and the story is genuine.
this guy bought a quick pick ticket, and 2 identical sets of number came up.
this guy bought a quick pick ticket, and 2 identical sets of number came up.
October 26th, 2012 at 2:33:57 AM
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Quote: skunkmehardIn Canada there is a national lottery called LottoMAX in which you select 7 numbers from 1 - 49. Each ticket is $5 and contains three sets of seven numbers. When you choose the quick pick option your three sets of numbers often contain numbers that are common to 2 or all three sets. For example, my most recent quick pick ticket had the following numbers:
13 14 21 22 28 35 43
05 21 22 25 26 27 30
08 10 13 22 27 33 48
As you can see the number 22 appears in all three sets. Also 13, 21, and 27 appear in two sets respectively. Is it better to choose your numbers yourself to avoid numbers that are common to your three sets? Does having numbers common to the three sets reduce your overall chances of winning?
I went to the American Powerball FAQ page on their website once.. one of the popular questions was: Do self picks or quick picks win more often? Their answer was--and I'm not sure if this is exactly right--quick picks account for about 70% of tickets sold, and quick picks win the jackpot about 70% of the time... EXACTLY what you would expect.. However, I do think getting at least one duplicate number in two or more tickets would reduce your chances of winning something, but I--without doing the math--would expect that chance to be so extremely small, it's not worth worrying about. I'm sure someone here could calculate exact odds....
October 26th, 2012 at 3:08:44 AM
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Quote: bigfoot66The good news is that the odds of winning are roughly the same whether or not you buy a ticket.
I'll agree with this part.
To me, it is interesting to hear (on NPR no less) that
some poor schmoe working 2 jobs and barely scraping
by has won the lottery. If you are barely scraping by,
why are you buying lottery tickets ?
My state was one where casinos were not authorized
until recently, but a state lottery has been in place
since the 70's. Go figger.
There's emptiness behind their eyes
There's dust in all their hearts
They just want to steal us all and take us all apart
October 26th, 2012 at 3:21:49 AM
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Quote: JohnnyQIf you are barely scraping by, why are you buying lottery tickets ?
Its known as anesthesia. Serves the same purpose as a bottle of gin.
You forget the "barely scraping by" part and have some hope.
Then you wake up in the gutter ... and find someone stole the ticket.
And life goes on.
October 26th, 2012 at 3:27:42 AM
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Quote: kubikulannWhat do you call "overall chances of winning"?
It should be clear that the expected gain is theoretically the same. No BS about the lottery handing you 'bad' numbers.
That's not true. Lottery is not a fixed payout game. If two or more tickets win, you share the price pool - which as a player you don't want.
If the quick pick mechanism is biased towards more duplicates it is a monetary gain for the lottery, because it doesn't care if the price pool is shared.
October 26th, 2012 at 8:05:57 AM
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Quote: andysifthis recently happened in HK and the story is genuine.
this guy bought a quick pick ticket, and 2 identical sets of number came up.
I'd be upset if I bought 2 tix and they came out identical.
October 26th, 2012 at 8:40:26 AM
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Quote: MangoJIf the quick pick mechanism is biased towards more duplicates it is a monetary gain for the lottery, because it doesn't care if the price pool is shared.
...how is that a monetary gain, though? As you said, they don't care if the prize pool is shared, and the expected payout on the fixed prizes doesn't change. I suppose if they're getting interest on the prize pool? But that can't be much, a few tens of thousands a year... not worth defrauding the customers. Although a bigger prize pool might mean more ticket sales... hmm.
Quote: JohnnyQIf you are barely scraping by,
why are you buying lottery tickets ?
Why else would you? It's as they say, a warlike nature is an advantage in times of scarcity, and a disadvantage in times of plenty - it's whether you're more likely to die of starvation or failure. Keep going at two jobs, with no chance at all of advancement and nowhere to go but down, or waste a tiny amount of money even when you're starving on a longshot that's giving you better odds than anything else?
The trick to poker is learning not to beat yourself up for your mistakes too much, and certainly not too little, but just the right amount.
October 26th, 2012 at 10:23:57 AM
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Quote: 24Bingo...how is that a monetary gain, though? As you said, they don't care if the prize pool is shared, and the expected payout on the fixed prizes doesn't change. I suppose if they're getting interest on the prize pool? But that can't be much, a few tens of thousands a year... not worth defrauding the customers. Although a bigger prize pool might mean more ticket sales... hmm.
Why else would you? It's as they say, a warlike nature is an advantage in times of scarcity, and a disadvantage in times of plenty - it's whether you're more likely to die of starvation or failure. Keep going at two jobs, with no chance at all of advancement and nowhere to go but down, or waste a tiny amount of money even when you're starving on a longshot that's giving you better odds than anything else?
As Jackpots grow they get more sales, so they do have some incentive to leave the Jackpots growing. I'm not saying they tamper with anything, but theoretically, if they did, that would be a logical reason to do so.
October 26th, 2012 at 12:10:01 PM
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I`ve read this thread with interest, and sorry if now I will derail from them main subject, BUT still in regards to LOTTERY:
- Recently a 35 year guy not very attractive to ladies in general at his 400 pounds, won the sum of $10 million at LOTTO !
- TWO DAYS AFTER his win he just FOUND the LOVE OF HIS LIFE (a model at a modeling agency) - Imagine that LUCK !!!
- Recently a 35 year guy not very attractive to ladies in general at his 400 pounds, won the sum of $10 million at LOTTO !
- TWO DAYS AFTER his win he just FOUND the LOVE OF HIS LIFE (a model at a modeling agency) - Imagine that LUCK !!!
November 6th, 2012 at 7:43:41 AM
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Quote: Boney526(Except that lotto play won't produce an expected gain, but an expected loss, in all instances except during rare promotions.)
In my country, 6 numbers in 42, I analysed the statistics and came with a (very very tiny) positive expectation when playing combinations not played by others, on draws where previous week's jackpot was not won (hence added to first rank wins). This is dependent on the patterns in your lottery. My calculations date from the time when there was no Quick Pick: this raises the selection effect. Today, I guess the expected value has gone down.
Reperiet qui quaesiverit
November 6th, 2012 at 8:27:28 AM
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Ah, that magical word, "patterns."
The trick to poker is learning not to beat yourself up for your mistakes too much, and certainly not too little, but just the right amount.
November 6th, 2012 at 8:55:16 AM
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I think when we are in Third Grade being indoctrinated into formal Logic via pattern placement instructions, the teacher shoud be instructed to give a disclaimer such as, "When you get older, if you are of a disposition to try out gambling, this exercise will not help you in a casino."
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
November 6th, 2012 at 9:24:34 AM
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Mission " when we are in Third Grade being indoctrinated into formal Logic via pattern placement instructions"
Hey, if I used them words in 3rd grade, the Nun would have washed my mouth out with soap.
Please translate !
Hey, if I used them words in 3rd grade, the Nun would have washed my mouth out with soap.
Please translate !
Shed not for her
the bitter tear
Nor give the heart
to vain regret
Tis but the casket
that lies here,
The gem that filled it
Sparkles yet
November 6th, 2012 at 4:37:45 PM
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Just pattern identification. Square-Circle-Circle-Circle-Square-Circle-Circle-Circle-Square-Circle-Circle-Circle
What comes next?
Rudimentary formal logic.
What comes next?
Rudimentary formal logic.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
November 6th, 2012 at 7:37:44 PM
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Hey Mission146, seeing that pattern of 1square+3circles, I am more than sure that the next coming figure should be a Triangle ? :=))
November 6th, 2012 at 9:28:06 PM
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Quote: PlayHunterHey Mission146, seeing that pattern of 1square+3circles, I am more than sure that the next coming figure should be a Triangle ? :=))
LOL
Yes, they should also teach avoidance of the Gambler's Fallacy from a young age!
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
November 7th, 2012 at 2:29:17 AM
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Quote: Mission146Just pattern identification. Square-Circle-Circle-Circle-Square-Circle-Circle-Circle-Square-Circle-Circle-Circle
What comes next?
Rudimentary formal logic.
That is not what is generally meant by "formal logic". http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Formal_logic
November 7th, 2012 at 7:03:42 AM
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I would argue that it qualifies as introductory mathematical logic, even pursuant to the standards of your link.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
November 7th, 2012 at 8:26:41 AM
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DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
