Baccarat counting player bet

It's next to impossible to get an edge by counting, but is there a count that will tell you if it's better to make a player bet? In particular, are there any cards that benefit one hand over the other, regardless of where they turn up?

You can get an edge counting ties, and sometimes the dragon bonus (depending on what it is where you're playing), towards the end of the shoe, although the cut card normally keeps at least the former from being too profitable. But I think that the modulo 10 valuation, plus the impossibility of busting, would make Player and Banker bets impossible to count for.

I've asked on here before whether anyone is aware of any casino offering Banker Natural Nine as the dragon bonus (or any other side bet, really). That bet is absolutely countable (Ed Thorpe wrote a paper on it), and the Wizard's Baccarat pages seem to suggest that Banker Natural Nine as the dragon bonus might be available somewhere.

It's my understanding, from ATW, that it's theoretically possible to count for the banker bet with a simple spread strategy, just like in blackjack, but the spread would have to be enormous and the cut quite deep. I'm not asking about a positive edge, though, I'm just wondering if there's a point where the 0.16% difference in EV between the two bets is overcome.

Yes.

This will get you started: https://wizardofodds.com/games/baccarat/appendix/2/

But the Wizard does not actually find the points where the Player bet is stronger. That's up to the reader.

The removal of 0-4 decreases the HE on Banker, while the removal of 5-9 decreases the HE on Player. If enough 5-9s are removed, Player bet becomes better

What I find interesting about Baccarat counting is that, unlike with Blackjack, you wouldn't necessarily have to keep mental track. You could subtly keep note using the pencil/paper everyone uses to track the streaks.

In an 8-deck shoe, if you remove all of the sixes, the Player bet becomes better than the Banker bet. No other rank (when removed entirely) makes the Player bet better than the Banker bet. However, there is still a house edge with all of the sixes removed. The house edge on the Banker bet jumps to 1.2593%, and the house edge on the Player bet drops to 1.0379%.

I know that this is an old-ish post, but...

How can you get an edge counting for the tie bet? I have looked around the normal sites (the Wiz's site, discountgambling, etc) and couldn't find anything.

I also wondered about counting for the pair bet. It seems like it might be possible in theory, but probably not in practice. You probably would need to keep track of perfect deck composition which would be a pain in the ass. Also, I doubt that a profitable bet would show up very often. But, then again, I haven't actually done the math or simulations or anything.

For the dragon bonus bet, try the Palms.