Poll

4 votes (28.57%)
7 votes (50%)
4 votes (28.57%)
5 votes (35.71%)
7 votes (50%)
6 votes (42.85%)
3 votes (21.42%)
5 votes (35.71%)
4 votes (28.57%)
4 votes (28.57%)

14 members have voted

pacomartin
pacomartin
Joined: Jan 14, 2010
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January 27th, 2012 at 10:07:08 PM permalink


I caught this projected electoral college map for 2012. It's not exactly earthshaking. It projects that the Republicans will win all the same states they did in 2008, but 8 states that Obama won in 2008 are considered battleground states

What caught my attention is that these forecasters have taken Indiana and the urban congressional district in Nebraska from Obama and given it to the Republican challenger. All this without even knowing who will be the selected candidate.

The poll question is, in your opinion, which states have lost faith in Obama during the last three years, and will already vote for the NOT Obama candidate regardless of who is the nominee? You can select more than one state.

Here are the percentages that Obama won from the 2008 elections. In the first three cases he won a plurality, but not a majority (with 3rd party candidates making up the difference).

North Carolina: 49.69%
Indiana:49.95%
NE 2nd Dist.:49.96%
Florida:51.03%
Ohio:51.50%
Virginia:52.63%
Colorado:53.66%
Iowa:53.93%
New Hampshire:54.13%
Nevada:55.15%

Obama won Minnesota and Pennsylvania by a smaller percentage than Nevada, but analysts seem to believe that he will retain these two states.

U.S. Total 52.93%

One tie scenario is that Obama only wins New Hampshire and Ohio, and the Republican candidate wins the other 6 states. In that case the House will elect Obama.
cclub79
cclub79
Joined: Dec 16, 2009
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January 28th, 2012 at 6:22:33 AM permalink
Quote: pacomartin



I caught this projected electoral college map for 2012. It's not exactly earthshaking. It projects that the Republicans will win all the same states they did in 2008, but 8 states that Obama won in 2008 are considered battleground states

What caught my attention is that these forecasters have taken Indiana and the urban congressional district in Nebraska from Obama and given it to the Republican challenger. All this without even knowing who will be the selected candidate.

The poll question is, in your opinion, which states have lost faith in Obama during the last three years, and will already vote for the NOT Obama candidate regardless of who is the nominee? You can select more than one state.

Here are the percentages that Obama won from the 2008 elections. In the first three cases he won a plurality, but not a majority (with 3rd party candidates making up the difference).

North Carolina: 49.69%
Indiana:49.95%
NE 2nd Dist.:49.96%
Florida:51.03%
Ohio:51.50%
Virginia:52.63%
Colorado:53.66%
Iowa:53.93%
New Hampshire:54.13%
Nevada:55.15%

Obama won Minnesota and Pennsylvania by a smaller percentage than Nevada, but analysts seem to believe that he will retain these two states.

U.S. Total 52.93%

One tie scenario is that Obama only wins New Hampshire and Ohio, and the Republican candidate wins the other 6 states. In that case the House will elect Obama.



After the pipeline, I'd say Nebraska. But Indiana is up there too. Also, most pundits have said PA is not a lock. Most polling with Romney is within the MoE. Santorum also polled surprisingly well in his home state, despite his loss in '06.

As for your last statement, you believe a Republican House will break the tie by voting for Obama? Absolutely not. But the Senate, if still controlled by the Dems, might vote Biden. There are a number of wildcards in a tie situation. Will one or more of the pledged electors break from their party and vote for the popular vote winner? If Obama wins the popular vote, will there be pressure on members of the Republican House to vote for him instead of Romney/whoever? Also, each House member doesn't have a vote, but each House DELEGATION from each state has ONE vote. In those states, will there be pressure to vote for the popular vote winner in their state, and not for their party's nominee? Will this House election by state take place before or after January 3rd, when the new House is sworn in? That might not matter, but it could if certain states flip their delegations. It could matter a lot on who gets to be VP because the Senate could be close or even split...With a 50/50 Senate, would Biden cast the tying vote for HIMSELF to remain Vice President? If the Republican candidate for President wins the popular vote and the House vote but Dems still control the Senate, will there be pressure to give the Republican President his VP nominee and not force a "Shotgun wedding" split ticket of Romney/Biden for 4 years? Expect hours of discussion on all of these points if a tie looks likely....

EDIT- If you aren't familiar with the process and the above seems silly, here's a quick version of how it works. In early December in each state, the electors of each statewide winner (except NE and ME) vote for their candidates (almost always the candidate who they were pledged to).

In mid December, Congress reads the votes and declares a President and VP-elect. If there was no electoral majority at that time (doesn't just have to be a tie, if there was a 3rd party candidate and no one gets 270, that works too) then the chaos would in ensue. The House is supposed to vote for the President, and the Senate for the VP. In the House, each state has 1 vote, so conceivably, a state like PA would have 12 Republicans for Romney, 7 Dems for Obama, and Romney would get the 1 Pennsylvania vote. But the Constitution doesn't say this vote has to occur right away. If they wait until after Christmas and New Year's, the NEW House and Senate would vote for the Pres and VP, respectively. The House probably wouldn't change if the Presidential election was a tie (most pundits are saying the only way the Dems could regain the House is with an Obama landslide) but the Senate could be taken over by the Republicans. So while the Republicans in the House don't care when the vote for the new Prez is, if Harry Reid loses the Senate, he might want to force a quick vote BEFORE Jan 3, when he will no longer control the chamber.
AZDuffman
AZDuffman 
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January 28th, 2012 at 6:24:32 AM permalink
Even Pennsylvania may be a lot closer than they think, may even flip. Filthadelphia will go strong for him, but I got faith it could flip when a woman I work with said "I have never voted before, but I registered just to get rid of this guy!" She said it more or less unprompted as well.

There was a big "energy gap" for Obama over McCain in 2008. That will be flipped this time. That alone could doom him.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
Tiltpoul
Tiltpoul
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January 28th, 2012 at 6:37:40 AM permalink
I'm from Nebraska (actually there right now) and I'll tell you Obama can concede the lone Omaha vote this time around. Despite its much more favorable status to Democrats, the loss of Sen. Ben Nelson late in the game with no viable candidate to replace him will hurt.

I'm kind of surprised that Missouri is already called Republican, and not a battleground state.
"One out of every four people are [morons]"- Kyle, South Park
pacomartin
pacomartin
Joined: Jan 14, 2010
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January 28th, 2012 at 7:01:20 AM permalink
Quote: Tiltpoul

I'm kind of surprised that Missouri is already called Republican, and not a battleground state.



The theory seems to be that if a state voted against Obama in 2008, they are unlikely to shift towards him in 2012.


Of course campaign managers are not so sanguine. They are not going to ignore states like Pennsylvania and Missouri.

The 6th Summit of the Americas in Columbia right in the middle of the campaign season, may well determine of Obama can swing the critical Latino vote.

s2dbaker
s2dbaker
Joined: Jun 10, 2010
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January 29th, 2012 at 8:17:30 AM permalink
If 'Generic Republican Candidate' wins the Republican Nomination for President then that Kenyan, Barack HUSSEIN Obama is in a whole heap of trouble!!
Someday, joor goin' to see the name of Googie Gomez in lights and joor goin' to say to joorself, "Was that her?" and then joor goin' to answer to joorself, "That was her!" But you know somethin' mister? I was always her yuss nobody knows it! - Googie Gomez
pacomartin
pacomartin
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January 29th, 2012 at 8:36:59 AM permalink
Quote: s2dbaker

If 'Generic Republican Candidate' wins the Republican Nomination for President then that Kenyan, Barack HUSSEIN Obama is in a whole heap of trouble!!



I actually think Obama will win the election. I don't see much enthusiasm for Romney the man. I think he get's the "most likely candidate to beat Obama" vote. While it will probably be a closer election than in 2008, I think that Obama will be well funded enough to keep the states he needs.
buzzpaff
buzzpaff
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January 29th, 2012 at 8:40:47 AM permalink
And if Newt wins?
s2dbaker
s2dbaker
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January 29th, 2012 at 9:43:28 AM permalink
Quote: buzzpaff

And if Newt wins?

That would be more fun than 2008. The only thing better would be if Santorum wins.
Someday, joor goin' to see the name of Googie Gomez in lights and joor goin' to say to joorself, "Was that her?" and then joor goin' to answer to joorself, "That was her!" But you know somethin' mister? I was always her yuss nobody knows it! - Googie Gomez
AZDuffman
AZDuffman 
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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January 29th, 2012 at 10:36:35 AM permalink
Quote: s2dbaker

That would be more fun than 2008. The only thing better would be if Santorum wins.



Santorum could be a great VP chioce. Myself I like his views but do not think he is groomed enough to be POTUS. When someone with just Senate experience takes an executive position they have a steep learning curve that it is different to debate vs to actually govern. Obama still hasn't figured it out.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others

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