Term limits domestically and abroad

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When discussing term limits for senators and representatives in the USA, it is helpful to know that the country faced at least two serious challenges for a benign president for life. One was in 1908 when the very popular President Teddy Roosevelt considered running for a third term. The second was obviously when President Franklin Roosevelt ran for a 3rd and 4th term, and then died within a matter of weeks after his final inauguration. Most people consider WWII to be a worthy exception to normal politics.

Had Teddy run a 3rd time, most people think that given his youth and popularity he would have been elected a 4th and 5th time to carry him through the rest of his life.

In 1908, the President of Mexico (Porfirio Diaz) had won 7 of the last 8 elections, with the remaining one won by a hand picked candidate, with Diaz the power behind the presidency. His only opponent for the last four elections was Nicolás Zúñiga y Miranda, an eccentric who was considered a national joke.

Diaz maintained control through manipulation of votes, but also through simple violence and assassination of his opponents. His administration became famous for their suppression of civil society and public revolts. While not president for the entire time, Diaz was essentially that most powerful man in Mexico since the early death of Benito Juarez on July 18, 1872. Like Mussolini, he is also credited with maintaining a kind of efficient economy, a Pax Porfirio, often called "The Porfirato". The revolution of 1910 was so devastating that the population remained steady at roughly 15 million for twenty years (although the census may not have been accurate).

In February 1908, President Diaz was now in his late 70’s when he agreed to an interview with an American magazine. While the interview is obsequious, I’ve always felt that the interviewer was subtly giving Diaz the rope he needed to hang himself. The interview was translated into Spanish and widely circulated in Mexico. When Diaz implied that he was willing to retire, competing political parties developed serious candidates. Instead Diaz delayed the 1908 election for two more years, ran and was elected for a final time in 1910, and within a year the country broke into a massive civil war at the cost of over a million lives. Diaz died in exile in Paris in 1915.

Quote: Creelman Interview of Mexican president Diaz, 1908

"You know that in the United States we are troubled about the question of electing a President for three terms?"

He smiled and then looked grave, nodding his head gently and pursing his lips. It is hard to describe the look of concentrated interest that suddenly came into his strong, intelligent countenance.

"Yes, yes, I know," he replied. "It is a natural sentiment of democratic peoples that their officials should be often changed. I agree with that sentiment."

It seemed hard to realize that I was listening to a soldier who had ruled a republic continuously for more than a quarter of a century with a personal authority unknown to most kings. Yet he spoke with a simple and convincing manner, as one whose place was great and secure beyond the need of hypocrisy.

"It is quite true that when a man has occupied a powerful office for a very long time he is likely to begin to look upon it as his personal property, and it is well that a free people should guard themselves against the tendencies of individual ambition.

"Yet the abstract theories of democracy and the practical, effective application of them are often necessarily different--that is when you are seeking for the substance rather than the mere form.

"I can see no good reason why President Roosevelt should not be elected again if a majority of the American people desire to have him continue in office. I believe that he has thought more of his country than of himself. He has done and is doing a great work for the United States, a work that will cause him, whether he serves again or not, to be remembered in history as one of the great Presidents. I look upon the trusts as a great and real power in the United States, and President Roosevelt has had the patriotism and courage to defy them. Mankind understands the meaning of his attitude and its bearing upon the future. He stands before the world as a states-man whose victories have been moral victories. ...

"Here in Mexico we have had different conditions. I received this Government from the hands of a victorious army at a time when the people were divided and unprepared for the exercise of the extreme principles of democratic government. To have thrown upon the masses the whole responsibility of government at once would have produced conditions that might have discredited the cause of free government.

Actually, in theory it's possible to get around the two-term Presidential limit, although it would be up to the Supreme Court to make the final determination - plus someone who can be trusted to fall on his/her political sword.

A strict reading of the 22nd Amendment says that you cannot be elected President more than twice. It sets no condition on becoming President through other means. This means that anyone who has already served two full terms as President is still "constitutionally eligible to be President" (just not eligible to be elected President), and is therefore eligible to be elected Vice-President. Therefore, if a two-termer is elected Vice-President, and the elected President then resigns (which is why I mentioned "someone who can be trusted to fall on his/her sword" - nothing stops the President from deciding to keep the job and ruining the entire plan), the two-termer now serves a third term.

Keep in mind that this depends on the Supreme Court not ruling that, "Well, it says 'elected', but the intent is to keep someone from being President after already serving two terms." (Almost certainly, the response would be, "If the intent was to keep someone from being President after serving two full terms, then why did they bother specifically saying 'elected'?")

Didn't Teddy eventually run, later on, using a third party?

I'd like to see term limits for Congress, say 6 for the HoR and 2 for the Senate. Realistically we would need to grandfather current members, just like they did with POTUS. Current members would like that idea. But make it like the US Army does for their officers: Up or Out.

Quote: Nareed

Didn't Teddy eventually run, later on, using a third party?

Yes he did. He picked a successor, and then he left the country for two years and went hunting. When he returned he wanted to be president again. But the Republican part wouldn't nominate him. He formed his own party, but as usually the case that only splits the vote, and Woodrow Wilson won for two terms beginning in 1912.

There is a strong belief that George Washington set the unofficial two term limit. But there is also evidence that he was too sick to run for a third term. He died only 2.5 years after leaving the presidency. In any case, none of the other founding fathers ran for a third term. In between the founding fathers and Teddy Roosevelt, the only president who considered running three times was Grant, and he didn't have strong support. Grant was only age 49 when he left office, but he was at the lowest point in his popularity, and he had a serious drinking problem.

The decision to word the amendment to limit the president to only winning two elections is a testament to either stupidity, or naivete. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out you could run as VP, and then have the winning president resign upon election.

Quote: pacomartin

The decision to word the amendment to limit the president to only winning two elections is a testament to either stupidity, or naivete. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out you could run as VP, and then have the winning president resign upon election.

Unconstitutional. No person shall run for VP who does not meet the requirements to be POTUS.

Quote: pacomartin

He formed his own party, but as usually the case that only splits the vote, and Woodrow Wilson won for two terms beginning in 1912.

So we have Teddy to blame for Wilson... :)

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There is a strong belief that George Washington set the unofficial two term limit. But there is also evidence that he was too sick to run for a third term. He died only 2.5 years after leaving the presidency. In any case, none of the other founding fathers ran for a third term.

The Founders had lives outside politics, too. Current politicians are career. That matters a great deal.

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In between the founding fathers and Teddy Roosevelt, the only president who considered running three times was Grant, and he didn't have strong support. Plus he had a serious drinking problem.

Ah, but didn't Grover Cleveland run three times? After being defeated for re-election, he ran again four years later and won. He's the only man to serve two non-consecutive terms (and probably the one with the oddest name, to boot).

Of course others may have run more than two times. Nixon did.

The problem with the current system in Congress is that the representatives' job is to stay in office, more or less. So that means voting pork to their constituents, and to hell with the country. I'm amazed there's any turnover at all. The Senate is different, because due to the long terms senators can dedicate part of their term to govern rather then campaign.

Term limits would help, but they'd ahve to be absolute. That is, any person having served X number of terms in the House cannot be elected to the House again in another district. Mexican "Diputados," who are limited to a single 3 year term, go district-hopping and get elected again and again.

Quote: AZDuffman

Unconstitutional. No person shall run for VP who does not meet the requirements to be POTUS.

But that is the question. The amendment only says you cannot be elected president. It is different than someone who is not native born running for VP. That is unconstitutional, since they are not eligible to be president.

There is no question that someone would challenge the decision in court, but it is not at all clear how the court would rule.

Quote: pacomartin

But that is the question. The amendment only says you cannot be elected president. It is different than someone who is not native born running for VP. That is unconstitutional, since they are not eligible to be president.

That should be changed, too.

At that Mexico had an even more restrictive law. In order to run for president, the candidate had to be native in the third generation. That's been scrapped for merely native born.

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There is no question that someone would challenge the decision in court, but it is not at all clear how the court would rule.

Someone start a campaign for Obama to dump Biden in favor of Bill Clinton. That would make the election much more entertaining :)

Quote: Nareed

So we have Teddy to blame for Wilson... :)

Ah, but didn't Grover Cleveland run three times? After being defeated for re-election, he ran again four years later and won. He's the only man to serve two non-consecutive terms (and probably the one with the oddest name, to boot).Of course others may have run more than two times. Nixon did.

Term limits would help, but they'd ahve to be absolute. That is, any person having served X number of terms in the House cannot be elected to the House again in another district. Mexican "Diputados," who are limited to a single 3 year term, go district-hopping and get elected again and again.

I wasn't specific enough. As long as you keep losing you can run as often as you want. But once you win twice, you are now prohibited from running a 3rd time. Grant won two elections, and considered running for a third. Teddy Roosevelt actually only one a single election. He was first elected as VP, but the president was assassinated only weeks into his term.

Under the present law, if you serve more than 2 years of someone else's term, you can only run for president one time.

I did not know that people went district hopping in Mexico. In Oaxaca, which has a very strong old boy network, it seemed like they all lived in one tiny neighborhood. They took turns in various positions, including mayor, governor, senator, etc.

Quote: pacomartin

I wasn't specific enough. As long as you keep losing you can run as often as you want.

Yeah, but most people take the hint after losing twice in a row. Well, most people outisde the PRD.

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I did not know that people went district hopping in Mexico.

They do little else. I think you can serve aany number of terms in the same district, so long as they are not consecutive. The rules are complicated.

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In Oaxaca, which has a very strong old boy network, it seemed like they all lived in one tiny neighborhood. They took turns in various positions, including mayor, governor, senator, etc.

In Oaxaca some communities work on "usos y costumbres," which is legalese for "above the law because they're too remote and small to matter." Not in all the state, but in various parts of it. And when the PRI owned the state, it did as it wanted.

Quote: pacomartin

But that is the question. The amendment only says you cannot be elected president. It is different than someone who is not native born running for VP. That is unconstitutional, since they are not eligible to be president.

For the record, I think it is good to discuss the Constitution, here are the articles in question:


No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice, and no person who has held the office of President, or acted as President, for more than two years of a term to which some other person was elected President shall be elected to the office of the President more than once. But this article shall not apply to any person holding the office of President when this article was proposed by the Congress, and shall not prevent any person who may be holding the office of President, or acting as President, during the term within which this article becomes operative from holding the office of President or acting as President during the remainder of such term.


But no person constitutionally ineligible to the office of President shall be eligible to that of Vice-President of the United States.


You bring up an interesting point on "elected." I am no legal scholar in an official sense, but FWIW I think it would not meet a legal challenge. Here is a simple reason why. There is another law that states succession thru the Cabinent in cases of emergency. Might have been in reaction to Al Haig's "I'm in charge" moment and revised after 9/11 to move the head of DHS up in priority. But if someone in that line is not eligible they are skipped over. Madeline Albright fell into this category not being natural born. So I would have to say it would not fly.

If someone did try it I also think the USA would have been so far gone it would not matter, that is the kind of thing they do in a Bananna Republic. Even there it can cause an uprising.

What's the payoff when you throw out someone decent because they are term limited?

The opposite case, of course, is getting of rid of people who are not doing a good job which is also a good thing.

Quote: rxwine

What's the payoff when you throw out someone decent because they are term limited? The opposite case, of course, is getting of rid of people who are not doing a good job which is also a good thing.

I am not sure that there is anything wrong with simply having someone face an election periodically. If they can be elected over and over again there doesn't seem to be a real problem. Some congressmen and Senators are so popular that no serious candidate even runs against them.

Recently, a large percentage of senators and congressmen have been voted out of office. The average length of service of Members of the Senate at the beginning of the 112th Congress (January 2011) was only 11.4 years (less than 2 terms). The average term has dropped for the last three congresses.

The average length of service of Members of the House at the beginning of the 112th Congress was 9.8 years (less than 5 terms).

Representative John Dingell (D-MI), the dean of the House, began serving on December 13, 1955.
Senator Daniel K. Inouye, the dean of the Senate, January 3, 1963 to present
Senator Patrick J. Leahy (D-VT) Jan 3, 1975 to present
Senator Orrin Hatch (R-UT) Jan 3, 1977 to present
Senator Richard Lugar (R-IN) Jan 3, 1977 to present

Senator Joseph R. Biden, Jr. (D-DE) Jan 3, 1973 to Jan 15, 2009 (now Vice President)

Some people feel that Supreme court justices should be limited to an 18 year term, so that new one would be appointed every 2 years. That would give each president an opportunity to pick 2-4 judges.

I asked the question about America's involvement in other countries because it seemed to me that there were a lot of American politicians with pretty strong opinions about Arab leaders (most of whom had been in control for very long periods of time).

Quote: pacomartin

I am not sure that there is anything wrong with simply having someone face an election periodically.

I don't believe that's the definition of "term limits" though.

Quote: rxwine

I don't believe that's the definition of "term limits" though.

It is the opposite of term limits. I am saying that there is no real solid evidence in my mind that the lack of term limits may be hurting the country. Most senators are voted out after one or two terms. It ends up being a distribution, with a handful of senators serving for decades.