What, Me Worry? UARS Impact Prediction Contest
So the challenge for the board is:
Predict as narrowly as possible, where the debris will actually impact the Earth. The nearest, most specific prediction to the actual 500 mile long debris trail will win (e.g., "The Stratosphere" will trump "Las Vegas" if a piece actually hits the resort complex.)
Predictions close at 11:59 pm Las Vegas Time on September 16, 2011.
Oh, and NASA reminds us to remember kids:
Quote: NASAIf you find something you think may be a piece of UARS, do not touch it. Contact a local law enforcement official for assistance
edit: image added:
Which one?Quote: s2dbakerTheTaj Mahal
Quote: FaceBut a question first: Am I the only one who, if this thing fell in my yard, would investigate the hell out of it before taking a piece as a memento? "Do not touch"? How could I not?
I would, too.
But be careful. It's dangerous! This thing's been in outer space and burned up on re-entry! You can cut yourself with a sharp edge or burn yourself! :P
An obviously no one ever saw "Dead Like Me."
Quote: NareedI would, too.
But be careful. It's dangerous! This thing's been in outer space and burned up on re-entry! You can cut yourself with a sharp edge or burn yourself! :P
An obviously no one ever saw "Dead Like Me."
Good call... Downtown Vancouver, West Pender and Howe.
Quote: FaceAm I the only one who, if this thing fell in my yard, would investigate the hell out of it before taking a piece as a memento? "Do not touch"? How could I not?
+1! It looks like there's alot of gold foil on it. I wonder what the scrapper would pay? I would definitely crack off a chunk for my mantle. Hopefully it won't be radioactive vegetable seeds like the ones in the satellite that crashed on Gilligan's Island....
Quote: thecesspitGood call... Downtown Vancouver, West Pender and Howe.
Anything that takes down the housing prices a few notches there would be great for us!
Quote: NASAFri, 16 Sep 2011 12:12:40 PM PDT
As of Sept. 16, 2011, the orbit of UARS was 140 mi by 155 mi (225 km by 250 km). Re-entry is expected Sept. 23, plus or minus a day. The re-entry of UARS is advancing because of a sharp increase in solar activity since the beginning of this week.
You still have a few hours to get your impact predictions in (and a few days to finish up your reinforced concrete bunker).
Edit - Additional information
NASA estimates the human casualty risk at 1 in 3200
• NASA conducted a detailed reentry risk assessment for UARS in 2002.
– Number of potentially hazardous objects expected to survive: 26
– Total mass of objects expected to survive: 532 kg
– Estimated human casualty risk (updated to 2011): ~ 1 in 3200
BUT, can we all make a pact? If it in fact lands in any of our yards, can we share it with all those who are interested and participated in this thread? Deal?
Quote: FaceMy official answer is "I have no idea".
BUT, can we all make a pact? If it in fact lands in any of our yards, can we share it with all those who are interested and participated in this thread? Deal?
Hehe, deal. I'd even hop my neighbor's fence to pick a few smoldering pieces off of their patio furniture.
Quote: FaceBUT, can we all make a pact? If it in fact lands in any of our yards, can we share it with all those who are interested and participated in this thread? Deal?
Deal.
We can also learn your homeowners insurance doesn't cover falling satellites, and how much you'll sue NASA for.
Quote: AyecarumbaIs anyone worried that the casualty risk is estimated at 1 in 3200? This means, according to NASA, you are actually more likely to be hurt by falling UARS debris than being injured while mowing your lawn (3,623 to 1).
I heard that reported on one of the network TV news shows yesterday. I haven't read the direct NASA report, but (without any justification other than my own feelings) I suspect the 1 in 3200 figure represents the chance someone gets hit. By that, I mean the chance that someone, anyone, on the planet gets hit. I think the probability of you personally getting hit is lower by a factor equal to the number of people on the planet.
But my feelings on this one could be incorrect. Someone please let me know if you have seen the actual NASA analysis/prediction.
Quote: NASA
There is a low probability any debris that survives re-entry will land in the United States, but the possibility cannot be discounted because of this changing rate of descent.
We'll know tonight. Get your butterfly nets, and fire extinguishers out...
"Re-entry is expected between 11 p.m. Friday, Sept. 23, and 3 a.m., Sept. 24, Eastern Daylight Time (3 a.m. to 7 a.m. GMT). During that time period, the satellite will be passing over Canada, Africa and Australia, as well as vast areas of the Pacific, Atlantic and Indian oceans."
Quote: Toes14...Canada,
Get thee ready, thecesspit and boymimbo!!
Quote: Toes14...Indian ocean
But what if it punches a hole straight through to Lake Erie? ;)
Quote: FaceBut what if it punches a hole straight through to Lake Erie? ;)
Then it will have setteld one argument :P
NASA says satellite debris fall complete
Quote: AyecarumbaNASA puts the reentry somewhere in the Pacific off the coast of Canada or the US (edit: 31N, 219E). Vancouver takes the lead!
Well, there's no "official" impact zone:
Quote: NASAThe precise re-entry time and location of debris impacts have not been determined. During the re-entry period, the satellite passed from the east coast of Africa over the Indian Ocean, then the Pacific Ocean, then across northern Canada, then across the northern Atlantic Ocean, to a point over West Africa. The vast majority of the orbital transit was over water, with some flight over northern Canada and West Africa.
Since there is no official decision, I have to call all bets off, and declare "No Decision".
However, unofficially, I will award the "prize" to thecesspit with his prediction of "Downtown Vancouver, West Pender and Howe". which is pretty close to the center of the final groundtrack of the debris as they plummeted back to Earth. Since the trail of flaming wreakage was predicted to be 500 miles long, there is a chance some of it ended up in British Columbia.
A close second goes to boymimbo with his prediction of, "36 degrees north, over the pacific ocean". The debris may actually be in this zone, but since it stretches from Japan to the west coast of the U.S. It is pretty much the waistline of the Pacific.
Thanks to all who participated, and until next time, "Keep Your Head Down, and Be Careful Walking On The Beach!" (There may be sharp edged space junk lurking just under the sand.)
