If we're not alone in the universe, then where is everybody else?

Quote: odiousgambit

I agree, time travel gets abused as a deus ex machina device far too often.

The only way I can swallow time travel without nit-picking it apart, is to assume any changes in the "past" create a new parallel universe. This gives you license to mess with the past as much as you want, without risking your own existence. But then that loses you the option to go back to the past to change your life; you'd be changing the life of your counterpart in the parallel universe you're creating.

And of course there's a big hole in that assumption as well...

Anyway, I still love all the Back to the Future movies :)

Quote:

The only thing worse is using the "it was just a dream" device at the end. That's more likely to be used in TV, but it never fails to send me to the moon.

Agreed, with one exception. I did crack up when the "Newheart" finale ended with the whole series being a dream by Bob's character in another series :D

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As far as the various Planet of the Apes inconsistencies, that the Apes and Heston spoke the same language was awful.

Yup. Language is horribly handled in SF movies overall. I can buy instant universal translators, like in Star Trek, or having everyone be versed in multiple languages, like in Star Wars.

Curiously one movie that used the language barrier well as a major part of the plot was the very terrible "Stargate." I liked how Daniel turns out to already know the written form of the aliens' language (Egyptian hieroglyphs), but not the spoken form.

Quote: Nareed

So we're supposed to be very surprised at the end when Charlton Heston finds the Statue of Liberty and realizes he's on Earth in the distant future. But the whole thing fails when there are humans all over the place.

That didn't bother me as much as you. There is a theory that there are humans all over the galaxy and the clan here in earth is just an abandoned colony. So, maybe the astronauts in the original thought they came across another lost human colony -- until the end.

Quote: pacomartin

There was a small documentary released at the same time about a chimpanzee in the 1970's that was raised as a human and who developed a significant use of sign language.

There was a very touching scene in Rise where the main ape character befriended an orangutan, while in captivity, who also knew sign language. It would have been his first communication with another ape. The orangutan said (if you can use that word for signing) that he learned it in the circus.

Quote: Wizard

That didn't bother me as much as you. There is a theory that there are humans all over the galaxy and the clan here in earth is just an abandoned colony.

Did the movie make this point? If not, then you can't expect the audience to even consider it.

Quote: Nareed

Did the movie make this point? If not, then you can't expect the audience to even consider it.

Maybe the movie makers assumed it was common knowledge. In the nerdy circles I tend to hang around in, it is. It is a major theory to answer the question of "where is everybody else in the galaxy?"

Quote: Wizard

Maybe the movie makers assumed it was common knowledge. In the nerdy circles I tend to hang around in, it is.

I've heard of it, but I've never known it to be taken seriously.

Anyway, in SF you have to spell out all quirks, conventions and assumptions. Niven tells you of the tide that causes gravity-like effects on the integral trees in the Smoke Ring, the Terminator movies remind you of Skynet, etc. You can't just assume the audience knows, or even that they'll think of it if they know.

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It is a major theory to answer the question of "where is everybody else in the galaxy?"

While it makes sense to suppose there is someone else, all we know for certain is that we don't know if anyone else even exists.

Quote: Nareed

While it makes sense to suppose there is someone else, all we know for certain is that we don't know if anyone else even exists.

I'm not satisfied to end the discussion there. The book If the Universe Is Teeming with Aliens... Where Is Everybody?, which I read recently, is all about this topic. With the billions of planets in the galaxy, even assuming a small fraction could develop life, and a small fraction of that could evolve into life intelligent enough to leave, then we would still have many thousands of such planets in the galaxy. Not only have they evidently not found us, but our radar telescopes can't detect any evidence of them. Something doesn't seem to add up. We shouldn't be alone, yet it seems we are.

Getting back to Rise, the audience can see as the story was taking place that a manned US spacecraft had entered the orbit of Mars and was ready to make a landing. That certainly ties into the first Apes movie, and would make for a good segue for a sequel.

Quote: Wizard

Not only have they evidently not found us, but our radar telescopes can't detect any evidence of them. Something doesn't seem to add up. We shouldn't be alone, yet it seems we are.

A couple thousand years ago almost nothing was known of the
outside world, apart from the little area where you lived. If you
were an American Indian, you knew nothing about China or
India or anyplace. You can't assume you're alone just because
you can't detect them.

Quote: EvenBob

You can't assume you're alone just because you can't detect them.

I never said that I assumed that.

Hm. Do I help you highjack your own thread?

Well, I don't thin the Admin would mind ;)

Quote: Wizard

With the billions of planets in the galaxy, even assuming a small fraction could develop life, and a small fraction of that could evolve into life intelligent enough to leave, then we would still have many thousands of such planets in the galaxy.

The Drake equation. Sure. The problem with it is the amount of unknowns in the variables.

One variable often overlooked is: how prevalent is the evolution of hands or other appendages useful in manipulating the world around?

Arthur C. Clarke once wrote a story about very intelligent beings with telepathic abilities, but without any means of manipulating objects or using tools. They had a culture, a very advanced knowledge of mathematics, but no technology at all; not even the most rudimentary form of agriculture.

But it all comes down to ignorance. We know about such things in our world. Hands and means of manipulation are rare, but widespread. Think humans, apes, monkeys, beavers, koalas, racoons for hands or close enough, and there's squid and octopus with tentacles. Now, not all of these species use their appendages constructively.

Still, some animals manage to build complex structures without good appendages or even much intelligence. Think of ant hills, bee hives and bird nests.

So suppose there are millions of intelligent species, but none of them can build any kind of technology. A galaxy teeming with the sentient equivalents of dolphins, cows, lions or crocodiles...

Quote: Nareed

So suppose there are millions of intelligent species, but none of them can build any kind of technology. A galaxy teeming with the sentient equivalents of dolphins, cows, lions or crocodiles...

Something I read once gave me pause. It went something like, "the thing to look for amongst life on other planets is the appearance of a dominant race of predatory apes. Keep an eye on them and come back every 10,000 years". There is something about "predatory ape" that hit me much more than "naked ape" or "killer ape" for some reason.

The confidence that most scientists have that extraterrestrial intelligence has not been spotted is maddening of course to the the UFO buffs.

It occurred to me after watching seasons one and two of the History Channel's "The Universe" that space is such a dangerous place that the answer really might be that any civilization is likely to be short lived. I had thought that getting hit by a comet or large meteor was the only natural doomsday scenario on the table, but nay. Of those that I personally consider plausible, you can add Gamma-ray bursts, a monster solar flare, a decrease in Earth's magnetic field, the arrival of a heretofore undetected black hole, and the onset of a period of extreme vulcanism [a super volcano almost ended the human experiment at an early stage as it is, many think]. The list is actually longer. By the second half of the 20th century, people came to realize also that a not-really-so-advanced civilization could self-destruct as well [see how we are staying on topic!] I see the book the Wizard cites talks about all these things.

So it seems the Drake equation needs to modify its longevity factor. The likelihood that a civilization with a signature will develop in many places is good on the scale of our galaxy, but the likelihood that such will persist through millions and millions of years is not good [perhaps]. Thus SETI could be searching for advanced technology that regularly gets snuffed out. BTW I realize that to listen to radio waves is to listen to the past, but the effect of just getting a "snapshot" is the same as if you could only listen to the present, seems to me.

Quote: odiousgambit

It occurred to me after watching seasons one and two of the History Channel's "The Universe" that space is such a dangerous place that the answer really might be that any civilization is likely to be short lived.

Let's keep some perspective. The laundry list of global catastrophes that may befall a civilization do not all mean an end to it.

A comet or meteor strike could cause civilization to fall, sure, but it wouldn't wipe out humanity. Even without civilization, we're smart and we can use our hands. So even if a global winter were to linger for a long time, scattered pockets of humanity would survive and, eventually, rebuild. This is true also in the event of a nuclear war.

More worrisome are gamma ray bursts or massive solar flares. Those can kill everything on a planet and render survival the mroe unpleasant choice. A black hole, stellar collisions and other massive events, would ahve similar consequences.

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I see the book the Wizard cites talks about all these things.

Many books ahve. asimov wrote about this in two of them "Extraterrestrial Civilizations" and "A Choice of Catastrophes."

Quote:

So it seems the Drake equation needs to modify its longevity factor. The likelihood that a civilization with a signature will develop in many places is good on the scale of our galaxy, but the likelihood that such will persist through millions and millions of years is not good [perhaps].

See above.

A civilization slightly more advanced than ours could colonize its solar system and, eventually, the planets around nearer stars. Making their longevity a non-issue.

Quote:

Thus SETI could be searching for advanced technology that regularly gets snuffed out.

Maybe. But there are only two ways of finding aliens across astronomical distances: radio and laser. I don't know if there are any searches for laser pulses afoot.

If we spotted a Dyson sphere, for example, which would definitely belonged to a very advanced civilization, we might not even know it.

Oh, another thing to consider in SETI is that we've been at it for a mere moment as yet.

Consider, we've had radio for about 100 years or so. So let's say there's a civilization 4,000 light years away that has had radio for 500 years. If we stick to radio, they'll find us in 3,900 years and we'll find them in 3,500 years. So we may have very frustrated aliens elsewhere asking themselves "where is everybody?"

At that, 4,000 light years is but a stone throw away as galactic distances go.

Now, as Arthur C. Clarke used to say that the best evidence that time travel is impossible lies in the scarcity of known time travelers, I'm beginning to think that FTL (faster than light) travel is impossible, the evidence being the scarcity of alien visitors to Earth.

Quote: Nareed

... the evidence being the scarcity of alien visitors to Earth.

for ye of little faith [g]

Quote: Nareed

Oh, another thing to consider in SETI is that we've been at it for a mere moment as yet.

Consider, we've had radio for about 100 years or so. So let's say there's a civilization 4,000 light years away that has had radio for 500 years. If we stick to radio, they'll find us in 3,900 years and we'll find them in 3,500 years. So we may have very frustrated aliens elsewhere asking themselves "where is everybody?"

but for a different perspective, it is possible for many, many advanced civilizations to have come and gone in our galaxy in the last 2 billion years; longer is possible depending on what you peg as the realistic start time. The milky way is 100,000 light-years in diameter, so the radio waves of those folks are long gone.

PS, double checked the age of the milky way and it is some considerable fraction of the age of the universe [@13 billion yrs]. So first civilizations could have come and gone way more than 2 billion years ago. This exercise has been enlightening.

Quote: Nareed

Let's keep some perspective. The laundry list of global catastrophes that may befall a civilization do not all mean an end to it.

I think Nareed has a good point. Currently we are producing a billion babies in slightly over 7 years. It took roughly 130,000 years to get the human population up to the first billion in roughly the year 1800.

The historical catastrophes like Black Death, 1918 influenza epidemic, World Wars, etc. have all had deaths well under 100 million.

There is a lot of room for a catastrophe that is totally unprecedented in human civilization, and yet the species is not in any danger. Also a significant portion of humanity could be relatively unaffected. Should our population be knocked back to 6 billion, it would be an unprecedented blow to humanity, but we only celebrate the day of 6 billion on 12 October 1999.

Intelligent life?
Often science fiction deals with the question of: If there is intelligent life out there what would they want with us? Think perhaps of the USA astronaut who lands on a planet with advanced intelligence and is greeted in a friendly manner then provided with housing that will remind him of home. He hears the door lock, one wall opens to reveal an appreciative crowd and a sign reading "Earthman in native habitat".

Also the oft repeated Twilight Zone stuff about two USA astronauts whose rockets crash in a planet that seems to consist of nothing but a hot desert, the two astronauts fight over their water supply ... only to realize at the end of their ordeal that they are in Nevada.

Its a common theme but one suitable for twelve year olds, not investors in a major film.

Quote:

If we're not alone in the universe, then where is everybody else?

Every advanced civilization eventually stumbles upon the same doomsday technological breakthrough and then is destroyed. And somewhat like a lot of brand new discoveries, you don't know exactly what is going to happen until it's too late.

Quote: rxwine

Every advanced civilization eventually stumbles upon the same doomsday technological breakthrough and then is destroyed. And somewhat like a lot of brand new discoveries, you don't know exactly what is going to happen until it's too late.

Large Haydron Collider

Quote: slyther

Large Haydron Collider

Contracts for difference.

Quote: rxwine

Every advanced civilization eventually stumbles upon the same doomsday technological breakthrough and then is destroyed. And somewhat like a lot of brand new discoveries, you don't know exactly what is going to happen until it's too late.

I seriously doubt 6:5 BJ is that powerful.

On the other hand there are the killer side bets for adaptation of low edge games...

Quote: Nareed

The Drake equation. Sure. The problem with it is the amount of unknowns in the variables.

One variable often overlooked is: how prevalent is the evolution of hands or other appendages useful in manipulating the world around?

Arthur C. Clarke once wrote a story about very intelligent beings with telepathic abilities, but without any means of manipulating objects or using tools. They had a culture, a very advanced knowledge of mathematics, but no technology at all; not even the most rudimentary form of agriculture.

But it all comes down to ignorance. We know about such things in our world. Hands and means of manipulation are rare, but widespread. Think humans, apes, monkeys, beavers, koalas, racoons for hands or close enough, and there's squid and octopus with tentacles. Now, not all of these species use their appendages constructively.

Still, some animals manage to build complex structures without good appendages or even much intelligence. Think of ant hills, bee hives and bird nests.

So suppose there are millions of intelligent species, but none of them can build any kind of technology. A galaxy teeming with the sentient equivalents of dolphins, cows, lions or crocodiles...

Additionally, there could be a number of reasons why we're not being contacted, if even there were intelligent extraterrestrials out there. Just off the top of my head, I thought of these:

1. They haven't developed long distance space flight yet.
2. They communicate without radio waves, or in a manner that we can't detect.
3. They are an insular society that doesn't believe in or care about other beings.
4. They are a xenophobic society that fears other beings.
5. They are part of a United Federation of Planets and have a rule against contacting more primitive societies.
6. They've detected our signals but can't decipher them, as their language is based in another format (chemical, pheromones, physical movement, etc.)
7. They are conquest minded and will maintain radio silence until they begin the attack on us. (December 21, 2012?)
8. Our portion of the Milky Way happens to be the galactic equivalent of East St. Louis, IL.
9. They'll visit us right after they conquer those pesky Klingons!
10. "Earth? Been there, done that. They'll all be building pyramids for another 3,000 years."

I always wondered what the reality of finding (or being found by) extra-terrestrials would be. Once the initial wow-ness of it wore off (and god knows what that might look like), I'm sure it would become just as droll as we find space missions now. Remember the scene in Apollo 13 that dramatized the not-showing of the crew on TV? And that was only a few years after Apollo 11. I seriously doubt the reality of it would match the expectations.

For me, personally, it wouldn't really change my scientific or religious views/understandings. I do think the biology would be interesting, though.

The only real religious challenge it would pose would be the Christian viewpoint that Man is the center of the universe. (Not the physical center, but the thematic center. You prepare a room for a baby but you don't necessarily put the crib in the center. But the baby is still the center of the room.) Otherwise, Christianity (as best I understand it) doesn't conflict with the existence of extraterrestrials, or even creatures of other realms (angels, etc.). I think that the religio-nuts like the one in Sagan's Contact are caricatures and/or red herrings and/or a way to ridicule what he didn't understand, and they don't really exist (outside of a few idiots, and there's always a few idiots).

Quote: Wizard

I never said that I assumed that.

There is a reason he is the Wiz.

Does your dog, which understands your commands and can think for himself, and can look to the sky etc.... Have any understanding that humans can fly in devices of their making? Or perhaps even that humans may travel in devices of their making many times faster than they can walk? And why does your animal not perceive these things around him?

At the risk of ridicule, there is much available to anyone who wishes TO SEE.

Quote: Toes14

10. "Earth? Been there, done that. They'll all be building pyramids for another 3,000 years."

This remidns me of a joke where an angel suggests God visit Earth on his vacaion.

God says "Earth? No. Never. Last time I was there I hooked up with a nice Jewish girl, and they're still talking about it!"

Quote: Wizard

With the billions of planets in the galaxy, even assuming a small fraction could develop life, and a small fraction of that could evolve into life intelligent enough to leave, then we would still have many thousands of such planets in the galaxy. Not only have they evidently not found us, but our radar telescopes can't detect any evidence of them. Something doesn't seem to add up. We shouldn't be alone, yet it seems we are.

there are actually hundreds of billions of 'stars' in the average galaxy, so there are trillions of 'planets'. roughly speaking there are hundreds of billions of 'galaxys'. when we speak of the universe we have a hard time comprehending its size. Nareed used as an example if there was civilization 4,000 light years away. our galaxy is aprox. 100,000 light years across. looking 4,000 light years away would be like looking in your back pocket. we can listen for signals for signs of life from millions of planets at once. thats still like looking out in space through the eye of a needle.

yes there are many 'threats' in outer space to our existence, but the enormity of space around us that isolates us from any alien form also protects us. we recently had a NEO come very close to earth but was still farther away than the moon. but in the definition of space in the universe and the potential consequence of a collision, that is very close.

we are made up of the same 'stuff' that makes up the universe, (yes i like to watch NG and History channel too, along with the travel channel and the food channel), so to think that everything needed to evolve life only ended up here is, well, just as impossible as people who think there are no such thing as 'aliens'. the only thing needed is the right condition, and the conditions are what will determine what life form will evolve.

isn't the universe fascinating.

.

my new stance on the matter is that it would be nearly impossible that other intelligent life didnt develop somewhere, sometime in our galaxy and start transmitting by radio. However, it is quite possible that it is very rare for such to last beyond a million years for various reasons. Since the first of these might have come around 10 billion years ago, it might be that it would be a matter of luck that two would be transmitting within a time frame that allows one to detect the other.

Quote: midwestgb

At the risk of ridicule, there is much available to anyone who wishes TO SEE.

maybe so...

At the Pacific Science Center in Seattle, they have a display that calculates the Drake equation. There are several dials where you can manipulate the variables. It's fun to play with.

Quote: slyther

At the Pacific Science Center in Seattle, they have a display that calculates the Drake equation. There are several dials where you can manipulate the variables. It's fun to play with.

Everything at Pacific Science Center is fun to play with! It's an amusement park for the mind, for kids and adults alike. Experience Music Project, SciFi Museum, Space Needle; it's a great way to spend a day. And Pike Place Market is a monorail ride away.

If the "conditions favorable to give rise to human intelligence" in the universe were a giant Big 6 wheel, how many other slots would it have if only one slot was, "Earthlike"?

Quote: Ayecarumba

If the "conditions favorable to give rise to human intelligence" in the universe were a giant Big 6 wheel, how many other slots would it have if only one slot was, "Earthlike"?

For starters you probably need a chemical base that is composed of common elements and that can assume liquid form at the temperatures and pressures at which you'd find planetary surfaces. This limits you pretty much to simple compounds made of H, C, N and O and perhaps Al, Si and Fe. We're water-based, but methane, CO2 or hydrogen peroxide might also work. C-H bonds are relatively easy to form and break so more complex hydrocarbons than methane would probably be used as fuel, as they are here on Earth.

For those with any meaningful degree of interest in the subject, this is one of the more thoughtful places on the Web for discussions such as the one at hand:

www.Openmindsforum.com

The only question this answers, is that you can make some awesome time lapse video of the sky.

It's been disappointing for sure for SETI scientists to see so far that nothing is out there so far. Of course, figuring out the parameters of the Drake equation is a major goal in Astronomy. Astronomers are only beginning to understand the nature and composition of planets around other stars. It turns out that a solar system like ours, so far, is fairly unique.

Nareed and others have alluded to the "postage stamp" theory for one of the variables of the Drake equation, in that an advanced society might be around only for a short-length of time before catastrophe hits. Maybe Earth is special in that an major catastrophe hasn't happened yet and that our society has advanced to the point where it has.

I'm fairly convinced that the scientists here looking for other life knows what to look for. They're not arrogant enough to assume that they are going to look for signals in the AM band or in Television frequencies; they're looking at all frequencies of the radio spectrum for clues and realize how diversified life might be.

In any case, perhaps the factors for the Drake equation are much lower than we think. Carl Sagan (my childhood hero, along with Spock) was very optimistic that there was other advanced civilizations out there. My thought is that we haven't looked for long enough.

Quote: boymimbo

Nareed and others have alluded to the "postage stamp" theory for one of the variables of the Drake equation, in that an advanced society might be around only for a short-length of time before catastrophe hits.

That's not my view at all. I think the human species is immortal. I think any species having attained even rudimentary technology (ie the ability to amke stone tools and agriculture), is essentially immortal, barring a really, really, really, really, and I mean really, bad catastrophe.

What do I mean? If the Sun went nova we'd all die. If a nearby star went nova we might all die. If a body the size of the Moon or bigger hit the Earth, we'd all die. If a giant asteroid hit the Earth we would not all die. If the Sun erupted a humongous flare, we would not all die. If we decided to trhow ourselves a nasty thermonuclear party, even assuming height-of-the-Cold War levels of total weapons exchanges at likely target, we would not all die.

As far as we know the life cycles of stars, adn much remains to be known in that area, the Sun won't ever go nova. It might flare, badly, but that's the risk you run in exchange for the convenience of having a free-floating nuclear fussion reactor as your source of warmth and light. No bodies the size of the Moon are running wild in the Solar System. Nor do we know of any nearby stars that might go nova.

Now, for the scenarios often posited that a virus, bacterium or genetic experiment might wipe s out, well, they're theoratically plaussible. But consider two facts:

1) Even now people resist the sue of one fo the most potent, beneficial medical tools available: vaccines. Not just in piss-poor third world countries rife with ignorance and superstition, but in advanced, wealthy first world countries rife with ignorance and superstition. So the odds of some advanced genetic treatment that eventually kills off the recipients is nil, because no matter how good it is supposed to be, some peolpe wont' get it.

2) The "perfect storm" fo disease was the Black Death back in the middle ages. it killed quickly, but not so quickly that the host coldn't spread the bug around. Notions of hygiene wer primitive at best and harmful at worst. In fact, some practices of the time helped the spread along tremendously (such as killing cats as they were thought to be associated with witches). It was a terrible thing and an astonishing quantity of people died horribly. yet Europe didn't cease to exist, and neither did it fall.

So there :P

Consider something else. the "goal" of all life is living. Small lifeforms and quasi-lifeforms like bacteria, viruses and parasites can cause infections on other lifeforms as they live and, especially, as they reproduce. But those that are the most lethal are also the most rare, because by killing the host they kill themselves, too.

Most infectious diseases tend to become less troublesom as they spend time evolving alongside their targets. Some become harmless nuissances like the common cold. That's the ideal for a virus associated to alarge population. it spreads easily, yet does so little harm there's no strng incentive to wipe it out.

Others may evolve to become symbiotic with us. You would die of malnutrition if you lost all the bacteria that live in your intestines, for example, which help break down some foods and help you extract nutrients from them. Even more extreme, millions of years ago some bug forged a clsoe relationship with ancient lifeforms, all stil a the single-cell level, and these became energy processors for the lifeforms. Today we know them as mytochondria. They are responsible for providing all the energy needs in a cell. Each of your cells has several of these symbiotes, each with their own DNA separate from the DNA at the cells nucleus.

In the entire universe, one race could be the "most advanced". Perhaps that is us. Perhaps that is why we call out and listen, but do not hear any replies. Maybe the rest of the universe needs to catch up to us.

Quote: Nareed

millions of years ago some bug forged a clsoe relationship with ancient lifeforms, all stil a the single-cell level, and these became energy processors for the lifeforms. Today we know them as mytochondria.

I have to say I was unaware that this was a theory about the origin of mitochondria. I had to look it up. Fascinating.

Quote: Ayecarumba

In the entire universe, one race could be the "most advanced". Perhaps that is us. Perhaps that is why we call out and listen, but do not hear any replies. Maybe the rest of the universe needs to catch up to us.

I was going to say SF writers haven't taken the idea seriously or done much with it, but I realized that fits in well with a story currently in my back burner.

Anyway, assuming there is at least one other active, techonologically advanced intelligent species out there, do you think we'll ever know? My hunch/educated guess si that there are bound to be a few and sometime in the future we'll know one way or another.

Quote: odiousgambit

I have to say I was unaware that this was a theory about the origin of mitochondria. I had to look it up. Fascinating.

I have a weakness for wacky, counterintuitive, highly improbable theories. This gives me a soft spot for the Aquatic Ape hypothesis of human evolution and the notion that Earth is the lucky product of a collision between a proto-Earth and a Mars-sized hunk of protoplanet.

Quote: Ayecarumba

In the entire universe, one race could be the "most advanced". Perhaps that is us. Perhaps that is why we call out and listen, but do not hear any replies. Maybe the rest of the universe needs to catch up to us.

That philosophy has some pretty dire implications for religion if you examine the "created in His image" concept. Are we really as good as it gets?

Quote: Ayecarumba

In the entire universe, one race could be the "most advanced". Perhaps that is us. Perhaps that is why we call out and listen, but do not hear any replies. Maybe the rest of the universe needs to catch up to us.

Ray Kurzweil would agree with you, but Ray Kurzweil is a bit of a nutter when it comes to his concept of the singularity.

I think it's just a question of timing.

Civilizations may have risen and fallen within "earshot" of Earth, but we humans have only had the ability to listen for evidence since about 1950. The chances of us being alone in the universe are extremely remote. But the chances of us detecting evidence of any others, in 50-odd years out of billions in total, are also extremely remote.

Quote: MathExtremist

That philosophy has some pretty dire implications for religion if you examine the "created in His image" concept. Are we really as good as it gets?

I don't think it destroys, "created in His image" religion, rather I think the, "lonely Earth" concept is exactly what Judeo-Christianity espouses. At creation, the first man and woman were, "as good as it gets".

Quote: algle

I think it's just a question of timing.

Civilizations may have risen and fallen within "earshot" of Earth, but we humans have only had the ability to listen for evidence since about 1950. The chances of us being alone in the universe are extremely remote. But the chances of us detecting evidence of any others, in 50-odd years out of billions in total, are also extremely remote.

That is certainly a good explanation. However, you would think that at least some advanced civilizations would become advanced enough to colonize planets on other stars, so one calamity would not wipe out the whole race. Once they achieve that, I don't see why they couldn't last indefinitely, and keep spreading out.

Exactly. And as they spread out, would they promptly announce their arrival at each new venue?

Perhaps not, for many reasons. And if they did not, is it likely they could effectively disguise their presence from a less developed populace?

Quote: Wizard

However, you would think that at least some advanced civilizations would become advanced enough to colonize planets

Also, another way to detect other intelligent life would be to find an artifact out of place. Like discovering a metal toaster when it shouldn't have been developed yet.

I know, I know, in the movies you find something exciting like a flying saucer or something dangerous. But I feel like it'd probably be more ordinary like an alien toaster. Maybe that's why we miss it though. Too ordinary. Someone just thinks it's an old Sunbeam appliance when there's actually an alien logo star depicted on the side - and a funny looking 16 prong plug.

(of course it could be proof of time travel)

Quote: rxwine

Also, another way to detect other intelligent life would be to find an artifact out of place. Like discovering a metal toaster when it shouldn't have been developed yet.

(of course it could be proof of time travel)

Like finding Data's head among the ruins of 19th century San Francisco?

The Fermi Paradox also questions why we have seen no evidence of extra-terrestrial life. If there's been so much time, and there is so much opportunity, where are they?

On the other hand, if you read some Stephen Baxter's fiction, he might argue that there's plenty of evidence, but that we fail to recognize it as such.

Quote: Ayecarumba

I don't think it destroys, "created in His image" religion, rather I think the, "lonely Earth" concept is exactly what Judeo-Christianity espouses. At creation, the first man and woman were, "as good as it gets".

If Judeo-Christianity espouses the lonely Earth concept, I don't think it does so intentionally. And if you buy into the creation story, "at creation" wasn't that long ago, certainly not long enough for us to change, evolve, or adapt in any meaningful way. Therefore, we're just as good as (but no better than) early man.

If a giant asteroid hit the earth there's a very good chance that we would all die. Humans are not immortal by any stretch of the imagination, and a giant nuclear catastrophe (WW3), a large asteroid, a non-stop virulent disease, and many other things have a good chance of killing all humans. For example, if crops no longer exist, a huge part of the food chain would be destroyed. If something prevented reproduction from happening, the human race would die off. Even if the human species did not die off, there's a good chance that the ability to communicate or look for extraterrestrial life would be thwarted.

We've only had the ability to communicate using radio for 90 years now. It would be arrogant to assume that we've advanced to the point where we've assured our long term survival. We almost destroyed ourselves 40 years ago. We're certainly capable of doing ourselves in.