Baccarat Tie Probability

If anyone can work out the math and share proof of answer for these question
For both 6 and 8 deck shoes, I would be ecstatic.

New questions

In Baccarat:

What are the odds:

a tie will begin symmetrically? As in, the same 4 or 6 cards in value (not identical, so ie. 33-6J included)

a 4 card equal score will win regardless of draw?

a 5-5 score:

will win overall OR

individually as a 5 card tie OR

A 6 card tie? OR

will be a 6 card tie after initial (4 card) equal score?

4-4 score:

Will be a begin as a 4 card equal score?

will be a 5 card win?

A 6 card win?

a low tie will win( 0-0, 1-1, 2-2, 3-3)

A winning low card tie will win with the 5th and 6th card valued at 0

any 4 card equal score 5 and under will be a winning tie?

A 0-0, 4 card draw will be a winning tie?

A 1-1, 4 card draw will be a winning tie?

" 2-2 "
" 3-3 "
" 4-4 "
" 5-5 "
" 6-6 "
" 7-7 "
" 8-8 "
" 9-9 "

Thank you!!!


Thank you!!!!

Why? What will you do with the information?

With this information I can understand exactly what the chances are of hitting a tie when a shoe is showing symmetry. You may have seen that often times a pair landing is related to the placement of a tie. Also if you use Elliott Jacobson's card counting system, a zero count frequently brings up a tie usually on the next hand but sometimes one to three hands. With relation to the count or symmetry, a shoe can often have a mirror image of exchangeable tie and pairs placement.

If you keep track of the cards that come down and a shoe at the same time as watching for symmetry while doing a simple single hand count, you can know when there is a higher probability of these occurrences triggering a tie. Sometimes a count will trigger a count, or a symmetry will trigger a different symmetry. The other day I played a shoe through symmetry triggered 11 pairs and not a single tie. But yesterday I played a shoe the triggered five times and one pair. I hit four times and one of the pairs. I only made six bets. Do you know anyone who has done this? I have been hitting the tire regularly using only the count. With a combination of count symmetry and probability, I'm curious to see if I can increase my edge as well as identify the shape of a shoe. Sometimes it is inconsistent, sometimes it has a mirror image, and other times it is just consistent, almost every symmetry will land in the same place. Of course those are my favorite shoes because they are easy. No guesswork, but they don't come up over and over again. Anyway I am more confident about hitting the tie then I have ever been and I never played it in the past. But now with a progressive vetting system for it the longest streak I had without hitting it was 17 lost bets, and on my 18th bet I still came up $220 profit. I tested it on a website I don't trust and one five bets to go from $35, to $281. It was bovada. Then my account started zeroing so as far as I can tell, it is a weakness and I am extremely interested in the probabilities so I can tell when I have the most edge.

On the other hand I think it would be extremely difficult to find someone who can actually work out these probabilities correctly

Quote: Roostarr

With this information I can understand exactly what the chances are of hitting a tie when a shoe is showing symmetry. You may have seen that often times a pair landing is related to the placement of a tie. Also if you use Elliott Jacobson's card counting system, a zero count frequently brings up a tie usually on the next hand but sometimes one to three hands. With relation to the count or symmetry, a shoe can often have a mirror image of exchangeable tie and pairs placement.

-snip-

On the other hand I think it would be extremely difficult to find someone who can actually work out these probabilities correctly
link to original post

Some of us have a spreadsheet with a list of every possible baccarat hand, along with the probabilities for each of those hands. It was written by one of our forum members. For some of your questions it would just be a matter of interrogating this spreadsheet list in different ways.

1. I suggest you stop asking several dozens of questions that require many analyses and select one question as a priority. Maybe two questions. You have a better chance of getting those answered. (Especially if someone has already looked at this before.)
2. Make sure you have worded your question so that it is unambiguously clear what you want -maybe give an example to illustrate what you want the probability of. No one wants to spend time calculating something only to be told that its not what you wanted.
3. Please don't expect someone here to spend dozens of hours performing a large number of novel analyses for free - just to help a newcomer and complete stranger. It might happen, sometimes it does. But sometimes it doesn't.

Quote: Roostarr

With this information I can understand exactly what the chances are of hitting a tie when a shoe is showing symmetry. You may have seen that often times a pair landing is related to the placement of a tie. Also if you use Elliott Jacobson's card counting system, a zero count frequently brings up a tie usually on the next hand but sometimes one to three hands. With relation to the count or symmetry, a shoe can often have a mirror image of exchangeable tie and pairs placement.

-snip-

On the other hand I think it would be extremely difficult to find someone who can actually work out these probabilities correctly
link to original post

Some of us have a spreadsheet with a list of every possible baccarat hand, along with the probabilities for each of those hands. It was written by one of our forum members. For some of your questions it would just be a matter of interrogating this spreadsheet list in different ways.

1. I suggest you stop asking several dozens of questions that require many analyses and select one question as a priority. Maybe two questions. You have a better chance of getting those answered. (Especially if someone has already looked at this before.)
2. Make sure you have worded your question so that it is unambiguously clear what you want -maybe give an example to illustrate what you want the probability of. No one wants to spend time calculating something only to be told that its not what you wanted.
3. Please don't expect someone here to spend dozens of hours performing a large number of novel analyses for free - just to help a newcomer and complete stranger. It might happen, sometimes it does. But sometimes it doesn't.

I am an avid player. I practice with real cards all day, each day. I use Win Pro when I am not dealing myself, I have a youtube channel.

I did not expect anyone to jump at this bonanza of questions. I just like yo share what I am thinking about. My goal was any response. I spoke with Michael Shackleford and He directed me here. I am new to the forum, but I have been gambling 16 years. Finally found baccarat and have only dabbled in Blackjack and roulette since. I gave up poker as the other games have have better odds and profit IMO.

I WOULD BE HAPPY TO SHARE MY RESULT AND FINDINGS SHOULD ANYONE CARE TO SHARE AFORE MENTIONED SPREADSHEET WITH ME!
I am more interested in analysis than gambling. I am fascinated by numbers and the way a shoe behaves based on the shuffle.

I have identified forms of symmetry and I am curious to gather data on behavior and relationships between them.

I recollect many small bits of information people mentioned about pairs and ties. Individually they never gained any traction other than occassional occurances I attributed to some form of increased chance that was not determinable. Altogether? These supersttitions like "see a tie bet a tie". Or, "the distance between a tie and a pair can sometimes repeat" . . .

If these events can be identified, which it appears they can be, then perhaps a massive datat set with similarly behaving shoes grouped together can identiy when the gambler has the edge or at least a greater likelihood of betting correctly on, not only a symmetry, but a specific symmetry, meaning a winning 4 card tie, a winning unbroken tie, a pair, a natural 9 to 0, a card shape (4/6 cards), or a 0 count.

Is anyone familiar with this experience? I imagine I am nonwhere near the first.

Quote: Roostarr

If these events can be identified, which it appears they can be, then perhaps a massive datat set with similarly behaving shoes grouped together can identiy when the gambler has the edge or at least a greater likelihood of betting correctly on, not only a symmetry, but a specific symmetry, meaning a winning 4 card tie, a winning unbroken tie, a pair, a natural 9 to 0, a card shape (4/6 cards), or a 0 count.

Is anyone familiar with this experience? I imagine I am nonwhere near the first.
link to original post

If there is a quantifiable, repeatable method for skillfully playing baccarat, I am eager to learn of it.
Casinos offering baccarat have profitted handsomely for many decades because very few players, if any, have managed to master such a method.

I am interested to learn what comes from your research.
Best of luck in your endeavours.

Please visit Baccarat Funk on youtube to see what I am talking about. Thank you.

Quote: Roostarr

Please visit Baccarat Funk on youtube to see what I am talking about. Thank you.
link to original post

I gave it (link) a few minutes. I'll keep watching, because my laundry isn't done yet.

Initial impressions:
The presenter seems like a system seller.
The presenter disagrees with Eliot Jacobsen.
The presenter has suggested using a negative progression.

None of this bodes well.

Edit: I gave it another minute. Single-hand counts? NO RUNNING COUNTS?

Thats what I gathered as well.
The baccarat rules are:

No negative progression
Systems always fail
Elliot Jacobson is an expert
The Tie bet is a suckers bet
Counting cards for one hand at a time adds no edge

Apparently this guy disagrees with all of it.

I'm curious to try out but he's talking about using a simulator.

Quote: Roostarr

The baccarat rules are:

No negative progression
Systems always fail
Elliot Jacobson is an expert
The Tie bet is a suckers bet
Counting cards for one hand at a time adds no edge
link to original post

These are generally good lessons.

Other curiosities from the video:
We do not see the shuffle. The presenter just promises that he shuffled fairly. The presenter also comments that this is an unusually good shoe. I am not saying this.presenter stacked the deck, but I have seen other system sellers make videos with stacked decks. I look for a "prover" of some type; cuts, riffles, etc.

This presenter seems keenly focused on recruiting patronage. I haven't looked into the card shoes he seems to be trying to sell (which he implied that he makes), but I doubt his fine products are the best value for the struggling young card counter looking to practice at home. (The one I bought a decade ago cost me less than the materials would have cost to hand-craft my own.)

Endless babble about "symmetry". It didn't make sense to me. Perhaps I'm an irredeemable dullard who just doesn't "get it", but I don't think there's anything to get.

The tempo of the patter and demonstration is too rapid for an "explanation" video. The tempo is more what I expect from someone dealing three card monte, where the rapid pace is part of the simultaneous engagement and misdirection.

The presenter said near the beginning that there would be a review session later in the video. I never saw a meaningful review.


If you want to see someone who doesn't feel like they're trying to pull a hustle, please check out https://youtu.be/PljDuynF-j0

I do not endorse or derive profit from them.

Some minor differences to note:
Better explanations
Slower tempo (time for the information to "soak in"; the goal is to inform not razzle-dazzle)
They aren't touting a progression system
They aren't hiding what they're up to in the video behind "proprietary information for subscribers only". (There is more that they won't tell you for free within the paywalled garden. There is validity to this approach.)
The video generally matches what a number of very trusted experts have said for decades.

Thank You! I thought that about the video too. Seemed like the only way to test it would be to do it ones self . . . Except he says he is holding the cards you need to try it.

I mean . . . Theres true stuff, but you really.pointed it all out. You must be a great baccarat player.

Thank you so much!!

Quote: Roostarr

Thank You! I thought that about the video too. Seemed like the only way to test it would be to do it ones self . . . Except he says he is holding the cards you need to try it.

I mean . . . Theres true stuff, but you really.pointed it all out. You must be a great baccarat player.

Thank you so much!!
link to original post

Okay, I will provide you some of this. The table below provides you the probability of all the hands from an 8-deck shoe that start symmetrically with 4 cards of the same rank ,(e.g.; Player 1,1 vs Banker 1,1) and that have a TIE outcome.

Starting Hands	Combinations that TIE	Probability of Occurrence
00,00	6190853760000	0.001238568
11,11	14682036480	2.93735E-06
22,22	652458240	1.30533E-07
33,33	146140289280	2.92374E-05
44,44	146140289280	2.92374E-05
55,55	21531121920	4.3076E-06
66,66	21531121920	4.3076E-06
77,77	50335944960	1.00704E-05
88,88	146140289280	2.92374E-05
99,99	146140289280	2.92374E-05

The total probability of all these so-called "Symmetric Tie" cases is 0.001377271

Here is the same information for a 6-deck shoe.

Starting Hands	Combinations that TIE	Probability of Occurrence
00,00	1063558713600	0.001210144
11,11	2422728000	2.75664E-06
22,22	96909120	1.10266E-07
33,33	24114049344	2.74376E-05
44,44	24114049344	2.74376E-05
55,55	3548913984	4.03805E-06
66,66	3548913984	4.03805E-06
77,77	8316842688	9.46312E-06
88,88	24114049344	2.74376E-05
99,99	24114049344	2.74376E-05

With 6-decks the cumulative probability of all these so-called "Symmetric Tie" cases is 0.001340301

The way I described it as symmetrical may have caused the miscommunication.

Buy symmetrical I mean a score. So any combination of one to one or two to two when there are only four cards. Not the actual cards AA, AA or KK, KK. But rather:

For example 7K, 34

That is a 4 card symmetry in Shape and value.

I'm assuming the probability of these occurrences would be much higher.

Unless I Misunderstanding! Thanks again!

Thanks!!

Well, I am now grumpy. Just to be nice, I did a lot of work and it turns out to be of no value to you. Although, frankly, I can't figure out how the answers to any of your questions would have any value to anyone.

Obviously, if both player and banker are dealt a two-card nine that will be a tie. Or if both are dealt a two-card eight. So, yes, the probabilities of your so-called "symmetric ties" will be much higher than the probability values in the tables I have posted above.

Well, I am now grumpy. Just to be nice, I did a lot of work and it turns out to be of no value to you. Although, frankly, I can't figure out how the answers to any of your questions would have any value to anyone.

Obviously, if both player and banker are dealt a two-card nine that will be a tie. Or if both are dealt a two-card eight. So, yes, the probabilities of your so-called "symmetric ties" will be much higher than the probability values in the tables I have posted above.