Any advantage play?
April 6th, 2021 at 10:58:47 AM
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I play DD 3/2 DAS blackjack. I use hi-lo count system with 4 to 1 bet spread. I get very poor penetration at 50%. With the above conditions, am I playing an even game or possibly a very, very slight player advantage. I also incorporate about half the illustrious 18. Looking for a numerical figure for house or player advantage. Thanks.
April 6th, 2021 at 11:13:34 AM
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Quote: Howdy234I play DD 3/2 DAS blackjack. I use hi-lo count system with 4 to 1 bet spread. I get very poor penetration at 50%. With the above conditions, am I playing an even game or possibly a very, very slight player advantage. I also incorporate about half the illustrious 18. Looking for a numerical figure for house or player advantage. Thanks.
You didn't post all the rules, but assuming double on anything, double after split, you are looking at a house edge of .45% off the top.
The other thing important in determining if you can make any money is penetration and 50% on DD is not good. I like at least 60%. But you can beat it. A 1-4 spread will definitely turn the game positive EV (people don't realize how small a spread it takes to turn a DD game +EV), but making any kind of decent return I would spread 1-6 and ramp up pretty quickly. I think I would max bet by TC +3. maybe something like base bet 1 units, @ TC +1 =2units, TC +2 =4 units, and TC +3 = 6 units.
You need to ramp up quickly because with a lesser penetration game the true count frequencies of the higher more favorable counts will be less (those high counts will occur less frequently). So you want to get money out reasonably early in +EV situations.
Problem with ramping up quickly is you will bounce back and forth between base bet and higher bets some, which can get noticed. Do you play this place regularly and have a read on tolerance levels and how sweaty they are?
April 6th, 2021 at 11:42:36 AM
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Thanks for the reply kewlj. The other conditions double on anything and DAS is correct.
Changing tables to better penetration is not an option. Wish it was. Typically only one DD game in casino. Shoe game is offered by not playable because all of them are 6/5.
Been playing this casino for years. Know all the floor person's, shift supervisors and pit bosses. Don't get any heat at all at 4 to 1 bet spread. I believe they know I am counting however at 4 to 1 spread, they seem uninterested. In addition, I don't believe at this late juncture they are interested in banning me since I can only play once a week and they don't want the publicity of banning me with bad publicity from other players asking about me. I could be wrong but I think that train has left the station.
I was hoping the wizard could give me a numerical approximation with the conditions mentioned above. Like 0.45% house advantage with perfect basic strategy in the flat bet game you alluded to.
Changing tables to better penetration is not an option. Wish it was. Typically only one DD game in casino. Shoe game is offered by not playable because all of them are 6/5.
Been playing this casino for years. Know all the floor person's, shift supervisors and pit bosses. Don't get any heat at all at 4 to 1 bet spread. I believe they know I am counting however at 4 to 1 spread, they seem uninterested. In addition, I don't believe at this late juncture they are interested in banning me since I can only play once a week and they don't want the publicity of banning me with bad publicity from other players asking about me. I could be wrong but I think that train has left the station.
I was hoping the wizard could give me a numerical approximation with the conditions mentioned above. Like 0.45% house advantage with perfect basic strategy in the flat bet game you alluded to.
April 6th, 2021 at 11:45:45 AM
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Quote: Howdy234I play DD 3/2 DAS blackjack. I use hi-lo count system with 4 to 1 bet spread. I get very poor penetration at 50%. With the above conditions, am I playing an even game or possibly a very, very slight player advantage. I also incorporate about half the illustrious 18. Looking for a numerical figure for house or player advantage. Thanks.
Greetings Howdy234! Here are some numbers for you based on some of the details you've provided..
Game: 2D H17 DAS, 50% pen.
Spread: $25 - $100 (max bet at +4, leave table at -2)
System: Hi-Lo, Il18 (not sure which deviations you use)
EV: +$7.28 per hour (100 hands)
Overall player edge: +0.17%
So given the very small edge, this game is about break even. However, if you can increase your spread a little and maybe find a game with a little better penetration, that would make a big difference.
Hope this helps, and welcome to the forum!
- Omega
April 6th, 2021 at 11:49:54 AM
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Thanks Omega. Exactly what I was looking for and those are the exact conditions except for split up to 4 times but no resplit aces.
April 6th, 2021 at 12:04:22 PM
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Quote: Howdy234Thanks Omega. Exactly what I was looking for and those are the exact conditions except for split up to 4 times but no resplit aces.
No problem my friend! 👍
April 6th, 2021 at 3:19:39 PM
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Quote: Howdy234I also incorporate about half the illustrious 18.
Howdy234, could you mention which indexes that you do not use from the I-18, and the reason for not using them? Plus I would like to know if you play every hand "play all" of the double-deck game, or do you do any Wonging in and out? Do you sit out any hands?
April 6th, 2021 at 3:50:49 PM
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Wong out at anything less than TC -2. As I am sure your aware, the il18 has diminishing returns for 9-18. Of course, the most important deviation is take insurance TC +3. I don't split tens at all and will not double 10 vs. 10. Can't split 10,10 vs 5 at TC +5 and 10,10 vs 6 at TC +4. I do the rest of the il18. As you are aware, those two plays are for counters only and imbeciles. The casino knows I am not an imbecile so there you go. I like playing there and don't want to rub salt in the wound. Lol.
April 6th, 2021 at 4:54:47 PM
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Quote: Howdy234Wong out at anything less than TC -2. As I am sure your aware, the il18 has diminishing returns for 9-18. Of course, the most important deviation is take insurance TC +3. I don't split tens at all and will not double 10 vs. 10. Can't split 10,10 vs 5 at TC +5 and 10,10 vs 6 at TC +4. I do the rest of the il18. As you are aware, those two plays are for counters only and imbeciles. The casino knows I am not an imbecile so there you go. I like playing there and don't want to rub salt in the wound. Lol.
Howdy, I only play shoes games and also do not split 10,10 nor do I double10 vs 10.
Take a look at the catch 22 Risk-Averse Indices I like using the soft 19 doubles against 5and 6 at a true of +1.
Playing double-deck games as you do I recommend that you learn more index plays but only ones that have a decent chance of seeing frequently. I would do this in the form of risk-averse by adding one extra true count number before making the added plays otherwise you don't want to get involved in tradeoffs with very small minor edges at the expense of adding a whole lot more variance, which applies much more to shoe games with bigger spreads.
April 6th, 2021 at 5:10:23 PM
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Bosox, Like that idea. Thanks for info.
April 6th, 2021 at 7:18:49 PM
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Quote: Howdy234Wong out at anything less than TC -2. As I am sure your aware, the il18 has diminishing returns for 9-18. Of course, the most important deviation is take insurance TC +3. I don't split tens at all and will not double 10 vs. 10. Can't split 10,10 vs 5 at TC +5 and 10,10 vs 6 at TC +4. I do the rest of the il18. As you are aware, those two plays are for counters only and imbeciles. The casino knows I am not an imbecile so there you go. I like playing there and don't want to rub salt in the wound. Lol.
Just a "thankyou" or a "like" of this post, which I did, isn't enough. I gotta say how much I agree with this and and think many players miss the boat about 'diminishing returns'.
With the I18, isn't the math like these 18 account for 80% of the value of 100 index plays, and even more extreme, the top 3, insurance, stand 16 vs 10, stand 15 vs 10 account for 60%.
And you get into higher counts it works exactly the same way. There might be "some" advantage of consideration of a level 2 for some players. After that it goes downhill sharply.
These players that want to squeeze every penny of advantage by learning harder counts and 100's of index plays, whatever the gain with these mental gymnastics just isn't worth it. Keep it simple and your mind free and some other possibilities will open up right in front of you, that you will miss with all this busy work. :)
April 6th, 2021 at 7:36:51 PM
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Quote: BoSoxHowdy, I only play shoes games and also do not split 10,10 nor do I double 10 vs 10.
I am with you on splitting 10's. There really is no way to pull that off. Maybe if you were to split 10's on every hand, but that is a high cost, probably a negative cost total. I consider splitting 10's at a very high RA count, only if I am traveling and know I won't be back at that casino for a long time, if ever. And even then, there is a risk. If splitting 10's is the play that puts you over the top in getting databased, that can follow you, even beat you to your home casino(s).
Now double 10 vs 10, I do. I use a RA index higher than the +5 it becomes +EV, but if the count gets to +7 or higher I am doubling. You can incorporate some cover into this by way of act. I sometimes slam (not really slam, but ya know) that double and say something about "I know this is the wrong play, but give me a 10".
Funny story about the 10 vs dealer 10 from years ago, you probably have read it, I called it the "perfect shoe". Short version: from the time count got to max bet and beyond, I won every hand except one that I pushed on. That one hand was a 10 vs dealer 10. The count was monster and the play to double. But I had already drawn too much attention and didn't want to add to it, with a play often viewed as a "tell". So I hit, drew a 3, I think, hit again, pulled a 7 for 20. Dealer turns over his 10 for a 20 and push. Had I made the right play, I lose both hands. Better to be lucky than good. :)
April 6th, 2021 at 7:47:48 PM
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Thanks for the kind words. I am of the opinion to learn the basics well capture the lion's share of the easy value. The game will be more fun and easier to play for extended lengths of time. I know as an advantage player we aren't in the game for fun however I am not into mental gymnastics to capture every penny of advantage. I believe new counters should pare down their system and do it well. Let's just hope the 6/5 spread doesn't eradicate our game.
April 6th, 2021 at 8:02:33 PM
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Yes, splitting tens isn't feasible. At a table with other players, they will squawk so loud that it will draw attention and we can't afford that. Love the story of just hitting ten vs. ten with monster count.
April 6th, 2021 at 8:19:15 PM
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Quote: Howdy234Yes, splitting tens isn't feasible. At a table with other players, they will squawk so loud that it will draw attention and we can't afford that. Love the story of just hitting ten vs. ten with monster count.
I like to call that "secondary" attention. It isn't what we do that draws the attention, but the reaction from the other players that draws attention that otherwise wouldn't have been drawn.
And this is exactly why that funny little comment about "there other players at the table", is wrong. Other players hitting or standing doesn't effect you one iota, but them squawking (to use your word) and bringing extra attention, does.
April 6th, 2021 at 8:38:38 PM
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Excellent posts guys. Well worth reading.🖒 FWIW, if I were to split 10s, my hind parts might land somewhere between Elko and Wendover.
My view on doubling 10 is the same as insurance. If I was willing to insure against an Ace with a 10 being under. Then why couldnt a 10 be the next card dealt? In a straight up game. I also side count Aces. In your lingo, with 4 Aces remain in a single deck Im doubling at TC 2 floored with 4 Aces remain. But not doubling when Aces are exhausted.
My view on doubling 10 is the same as insurance. If I was willing to insure against an Ace with a 10 being under. Then why couldnt a 10 be the next card dealt? In a straight up game. I also side count Aces. In your lingo, with 4 Aces remain in a single deck Im doubling at TC 2 floored with 4 Aces remain. But not doubling when Aces are exhausted.
April 7th, 2021 at 6:38:14 AM
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Quote: mosesExcellent posts guys. Well worth reading.🖒 FWIW, if I were to split 10s, my hind parts might land somewhere between Elko and Wendover.
My view on doubling 10 is the same as insurance. If I was willing to insure against an Ace with a 10 being under. Then why couldnt a 10 be the next card dealt?
I could not respond to you guys last night as I reached the post's daily limit for new members.
Moses, no disrespect intended but you cannot look at it that way. That insurance bet pays 2 for 1 payoff, you only need to be right one-third of the time just to break out even for insurance. For doubling, you need a higher number.
KewlJ, the ten vs ten double is really tricky in the fact that two people in the same position can do the opposite thing one doubling and one hitting, and both be right. Or could in fact be getting the extra EV but at the same time lowering the CE "certainty equivalents" and actually be lowering your SCORE in the process. Everything is based not only on the spread you are using during these large true counts for the 10-10 double but what fraction of Kelly Equivalent the wager represents, there needs to be a consideration for adjustments for risk. Don S explains it in the last paragraph on page 372 and the first paragraph on page 373. On page 378 there is an actual chart showing all the facts for the ten vs ten double based on spreads and kelly equivalent. The bottom line is what may be right for us may not be the best move for someone else.
April 7th, 2021 at 6:53:24 AM
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Mr Bosox. I also followed up with side count of Aces. Easy peasy with 4 in single deck. I would think not too difficult with 8 in double deck. But 24 in a six deck shoe? Not so fast my friend.
Thus hitting is totally logical. .
Thus hitting is totally logical. .
April 7th, 2021 at 8:58:50 AM
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Quote: mosesMr Bosox. I also followed up with side count of Aces. Easy peasy with 4 in single deck. I would think not too difficult with 8 in double deck. But 24 in a six deck shoe? Not so fast my friend.
Thus hitting is totally logical. .
Yes, I know what you are saying moses, that is where it is so hard to relate between shoe players and a single deck player such as yourself. We have seemed to bump up with that problem time and time again. I agree that it is a good thread.
April 7th, 2021 at 9:03:32 AM
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I use what I loosely term a "practical" 13 instead of illustrious 18. Throw out splitting tens, 10 vs. 10 double, 12 vs. 5, and 12 vs. 6. Realize the algorithms implemented by surveillance can detect anyone counting in a heartbeat however I am hoping to blend in with a basic strategy player as best I can. Trying to avoid as much "secondary" attention as kewlj aptly described it as possible. Realize that I am loosing some value but easier to implement in real casino situations (distractions, conversations, etc).
April 7th, 2021 at 9:40:10 AM
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I tossed out the same. Totally agree to hit 10vs10 if you're not side counting Aces.
If you have Qfit products I'd suggest switching the tags on the 2 and 7 for double deck (only). Then add 14vs10 which will probably line up with the TC for insurance in the index generation. But ALWAYS run your sims first.
If you have Qfit products I'd suggest switching the tags on the 2 and 7 for double deck (only). Then add 14vs10 which will probably line up with the TC for insurance in the index generation. But ALWAYS run your sims first.
April 7th, 2021 at 10:00:48 AM
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Quote: BoSoxI could not respond to you guys last night as I reached the post's daily limit for new members.
Gee whiz, I hate that you have hit your daily limit and run up against a road block at the end of the day and we miss out on the important stuff you may have to say. lol.
Have you asked to have the daily limit lifted? No need now, as I just requested it. I am always looking out for you my friend.
April 7th, 2021 at 10:48:56 AM
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Guess we are all quietly working our way to Max Rubin's Blackjack Ball. Lol.
April 7th, 2021 at 9:04:07 PM
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I ran some numbers on CV Data for dd 10vs10. The sim was for 200 mil hands. Since none of us will ever play even 2 mil hands, I took the percentage of hands played x 100k.
At TC 1t: You'd have 260 hands. 115 wins 101 loss 44 ties.
At TC 2+: 110 hands 49 wins 41 loss 20 ties.
At TC 3+ 50 hands 22 wins 18 lost 10 ties.
My question is would you always hit? DD at tc 1? tc 2? tc 3?
At TC 1t: You'd have 260 hands. 115 wins 101 loss 44 ties.
At TC 2+: 110 hands 49 wins 41 loss 20 ties.
At TC 3+ 50 hands 22 wins 18 lost 10 ties.
My question is would you always hit? DD at tc 1? tc 2? tc 3?
April 7th, 2021 at 10:23:37 PM
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In a perfect world where card counters are ignored and one could play with unlimited bet spreads then yes it appears that's the right play. There are much more variables than sheer numbers. All variances from basic strategy are a tell. Do you want to risk being fingered as card counter on doubling 10 vs. 10? Every blackjack players situation is different. Proximity to playable casinos. Number of playable casinos. Costs associated to get to playable casinos. Heat at casinos, etc.
With my circumstances that's a play, I am not willing to make even with a true plus 4.
With my circumstances that's a play, I am not willing to make even with a true plus 4.
April 7th, 2021 at 10:35:00 PM
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I agree Howdy. There was a time when I could play $100k hands a year. Now it will take 3 years. My max bet is $200. So at TC 3+ I would win 4 times more than I lose. A presumed profit of $1600 or $533 annually.
Im still not sure. I think Im leaning to agree with Howdy and Bosox and just hit. Double Down 10vs10 doesnt draw heat here. It would come up about once every 3 weeks on average.
What win percentage would make it worthwhile for you?
Im still not sure. I think Im leaning to agree with Howdy and Bosox and just hit. Double Down 10vs10 doesnt draw heat here. It would come up about once every 3 weeks on average.
What win percentage would make it worthwhile for you?
Last edited by: moses on Apr 8, 2021
April 9th, 2021 at 9:57:05 PM
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Quote: mosesI agree Howdy. There was a time when I could play $100k hands a year. Now it will take 3 years. My max bet is $200. So at TC 3+ I would win 4 times more than I lose. A presumed profit of $1600 or $533 annually.
Moses, I have read and reread this and just have zero clue what you are trying to say. I assume the $ sign is added mistakenly and you are saying you used to play 100k hands and now play a third of that. Similarly, my first few years in Vegas, I played 80-100 thousand rounds of blackjack a year and now play 50-60k. For people that don't understand 100k rounds is a LOT. I know people think 100 rounds an hour so 100k is 1000 hour, which is about 1/2 a 40 hour work week. That is not even close to how it works. For every hour played there is 1-2 hours in travel, scouting, keeping records. Most professional players play 20-30k thousand rounds.
Ok, so on to sentence number 2. Are you saying at TC+3, you win 80% of your hands, (4 times more than you lose). That is not really possible. I must be misunderstanding what you are saying.
April 9th, 2021 at 11:14:59 PM
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Hey, kewlj.
I don't believe there is a TC high enough to win 80% of the hands. I could be wrong but that seems like a tall, tall order. I believe at such a ridiculous high TC too many pushes would come into play before an 80% win rate is achieved.
I don't believe there is a TC high enough to win 80% of the hands. I could be wrong but that seems like a tall, tall order. I believe at such a ridiculous high TC too many pushes would come into play before an 80% win rate is achieved.
April 10th, 2021 at 12:00:41 AM
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We have all been at the tables on occasion when the TC is neutral or slightly negative and yet we win 80% of the hands for a very, very short period of time. It is more a function of exceptional matching and great hitting of stiffs. In these rare circumstances, the dealer will sometimes make a positive progression comment. At this point, you want to grab the dealer and say the count doesn't support it. We just have to shrug it off and say that yes I am lucky right now. Lol.
April 10th, 2021 at 12:42:35 AM
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Quote: Howdy234Hey, kewlj.
I don't believe there is a TC high enough to win 80% of the hands. I could be wrong but that seems like a tall, tall order. I believe at such a ridiculous high TC too many pushes would come into play before an 80% win rate is achieved.
I don't want to speak for moses, I'll let him clarify what he is talking about with the wins 4 x losses statement. Doesn't make sense to me.
But I can say that Moses has always had this rather odd idea that he can win 60% of his large bets, which really isn't possible on a longterm basis. He is right in thinking that what occurs when are large bets are out, the max bet situations is going to determine if we are winning or losing for that day or period of days. If you have a session or few days when you are losing all or majority of large bets, those are going to be losing days. And conversely with winning.
Now it may turn out that over a short period, say 2 or 3 days, you win 60% of max bets at lets say $200 each and at the end of that stretch of play you are ahead "roughly' $4000, and by the end of the month when everything is said and done, you finish up about that same amount, you can point to particular stretch as to where most of that winning came from. But you can't sustain that 60% for the entire month. That just isn't possible. That is like a roulette player thinking I can just win 3 or every 5 spins, betting black. There will be stretches that occurs, but you can't sustain that for any time.
So that was 60%. This is the first time I have read him say 80% or 4 times losses. I am hoping I am just misunderstanding what he is saying. Sometimes with moses and I, it is like we are talking different languages and I just am mis-understanding what he is trying to say. Hopefully that is the case here.
April 10th, 2021 at 4:49:15 AM
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Quote: Howdy234In a perfect world where card counters are ignored and one could play with unlimited bet spreads then yes it appears that's the right play. There are much more variables than sheer numbers. All variances from basic strategy are a tell. Do you want to risk being fingered as card counter on doubling 10 vs. 10? Every blackjack players situation is different. Proximity to playable casinos. Number of playable casinos. Costs associated to get to playable casinos. Heat at casinos, etc.
With my circumstances that's a play, I am not willing to make even with a true plus 4.
Howdy, doubling 10 vs 10 other than the size of your much larger bet is a tell in itself, I do not think it too much out of line. Just gives the appearance of an aggressive bettor. The reason I pass up on doing it is that I play shoes and the risk-averse # is +7 true which that play in that situation does not come too often and I consider it trading a very small edge for a lot of added variance.
Example:
10 vs 10 (5/6, S17, DAS)
true count EV gain
+4 +0.008
+5 +0.015
+6 +0.022
+7 +0.029
April 10th, 2021 at 7:58:39 AM
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Let me try again. I ran a comparison on CV Data. At TC 3+ I would win 22 times and lose 18 on a double down of 10v10. I win 55%. Certainly not 80%.
The sim was 200mil. But I took the percentage of hands played x 100k hands. It's going to take me 3 years to play 100k hands these days whereas KJ might still be able to do it in one.
In a $50 game, my max bet is $200. Pathetic I know. But this is within casino tolerance. I can spread to two hands.
So, for me, in 3 years I will win 4 more double downs than I lose on 10vs10. The max of $200 doubled leaves $400 on the tables to be won or lost. 4 × $400 is $1600 for that particular play. But it will take me 3 years.
The sim was 200mil. But I took the percentage of hands played x 100k hands. It's going to take me 3 years to play 100k hands these days whereas KJ might still be able to do it in one.
In a $50 game, my max bet is $200. Pathetic I know. But this is within casino tolerance. I can spread to two hands.
So, for me, in 3 years I will win 4 more double downs than I lose on 10vs10. The max of $200 doubled leaves $400 on the tables to be won or lost. 4 × $400 is $1600 for that particular play. But it will take me 3 years.
