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Joined: Jan 14, 2010
August 23rd, 2012 at 11:14:39 PM permalink
Start with the projection for the next three decades. Numbers are in millions.
World prediction Births Deaths
1st decade 1,336 589
2nd decade 1,311 663
3rd decade 1,309 762
total 3,956 2,013

The end result is that 4 billion people are born, and 2 billion die. Still pretty big numbers compared to the less than 3 billion people alive when I was born. Even large compared to the less than 1 billion people in the Western Hemisphere today.

My feeling is that the wants and desires of these new 4 billion people will make the loss of feeding and clothing the 2 billion that die. The new 4 billion will be overwhelmed with media. They will want skinny jeans, snappy sandals, fast food, better health care, automobiles, airplane travel, jewelry, summer and winter wardrobes, family rooms, televisions, movies, and everything else they see on the internet.

You can check more than one.

The end of the population explosion is essentially the stablization of the number of births, while the number of deaths catches up (in roughly 7 decades). Of course, this projection can change with advanced in longevity, or a return to having more babies.

The Malthusian disaster is the other possibility. Usually that is associated with the massive rise in death rate, possibly one in which deaths = births in 35 years, instead of the predicted 70. But it could include a huge drop in birth rate.
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August 24th, 2012 at 10:45:11 AM permalink
Birth rates in the first world will fall due to the financial penalty of having a large family in a post-industrial society. However, third world birth rates will continue to rise as the need for workers to support the consumption of the "1%" continues unabated.

The growing prosperity gulf between the "haves" and "have nots" will eventually need to be "rebalanced". Hopefully, this will be done through the wise allocation of economic opportunity, and the fair distribution of the benefits of labor... but history has shown that this is difficult to do. People and societies are selfish, and will often only yield to force. I hope it doesn't come to armed conflict, again.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
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