No Variance or Variance advantage play scenario

Lets say I found a interesting advantage play that has good exponential potential with a few drawbacks, I will simplify it to a coinflip (perfect 50/50).

You can bet on heads, if it lands on heads, you are paid out 1.02:1
You may also bet on tails, if it lands on tails, you are paid out 1:1
You may also bet on them both at the same time in any way you like, you can choose to bet more on one side or the other for example, it does not matter in the game.

The only problem is this is a very popular, but also incredibly unregulated online casino. If they become aware of what you are doing they will be happy to confiscate your funds without question and can easily eat whatever tiny reputational hit comes from it, though they do not check every withdraw with heavy scrutiny as they can also tank proportionally small losses.

Assuming this I am wondering how the people in this forum would go about it, does it make sense to just calculate Kelly bet sizing for heads and grind it out, could you even add smaller amounts of variance to make it look less like a guaranteed bet by betting say 40% on tails, 60% on heads so that you would have higher EV per hour? Just say YOLO and take a small portion of your bankroll and see if you can multiply it with no risk wagers on both sides + maybe add some cover play prior to withdrawing?

Thanks for any input at all, feel free to respond even if you don't have experience with this exact scenario I'm aware its not common, just brainstorming.

Have you considered this is not a fair game.

How will that 90% of losses covering wins look for taxes on online play? They track every hand pay which would be $1K bet + $1K won = $2K payout in 2026. Can you bet less than $1K max and make a winning go of it? How many times can you withdraw $5K or whatever your credit card will allow before the casino blanches?

"Have you considered this is not a fair game."

If the game had zero variance and an advantage as was implied by my post is the coinflip going to opt to land on its edge and declare no bets won?

Quote: ChumpChange

How will that 90% of losses covering wins look for taxes on online play? They track every hand pay which would be $1K bet + $1K won = $2K payout in 2026. Can you bet less than $1K max and make a winning go of it?
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Good question, I'm not sure on the taxes part, if betting less than 1k made this not a problem then it would certainly be worth doing, I wouldn't plan on betting more than 1k unless I was doing it without variance.

Quote: topdogger

Quote: ChumpChange

How will that 90% of losses covering wins look for taxes on online play? They track every hand pay which would be $1K bet + $1K won = $2K payout in 2026. Can you bet less than $1K max and make a winning go of it?
link to original post

Good question, I'm not sure on the taxes part, if betting less than 1k made this not a problem then it would certainly be worth doing, I wouldn't plan on betting more than 1k unless I was doing it without variance.
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I think you may want to consult your tax advisor.

Im still interested, barring any tax problems and personal insecurities regarding finding advantage plays, what some of yall with more experience than me would recommend in a situation like this.

Quote: topdogger

If they become aware of what you are doing they will be happy to confiscate your funds without question and can easily eat whatever tiny reputational hit comes from it, though they do not check every withdraw with heavy scrutiny as they can also tank proportionally small losses.

IMO, you've said the most important part of the play here. Every casino eventually catches on. Whether it's 1 day, week, year, etc... So you must assume whatever funds are still left in your account when they find out are going to be a loss. I believe while there are several factors, this should be one of the most important ones. Now the real question becomes, can you out perform the funds you need to leave in your account to play the game? Certainly sounds easier to do betting both sides with less variance, BUT that also seems like a MUUUUUUUUUCH bigger tip off to the casino to get caught sooner. So a genuine dilemma. I had something similar happen with an offshores book 5+ years ago. I found an opportunity where it wasn't a sure win, but the edge was so high it was difficult to have losing days. This reminds me because I remember really considering *when* I should withdraw and how many/often I should... I was terrified the first withdraw (which would be decent 4 figures) would trigger a review and kill me in the water. This was a "reputable enough" casino that I figured no matter what (even an account ban) I'd still get paid my money at least. So I was considering running it up to 6 figures and attempting 1 big cash out, but I didn't like that variance. "What if" they didn't want to cash out that large? etc.... In the end I decided on cashing out once the account got over $X to ensure I made money, and I was willing to accept the account loss (which didn't happen thankfully). At ANY online casino if you're withdrawing frequently, they're just going to trigger an account review to some extent. It's a fine balancing act.

At the end of the day, there was no right and perfect answer because you don't have the back end info of how long you'll be able to play the play. Thus, you have to make a decision that is:

A) Worth your time
B) Gets the "majority" of the EV
C) Covers you when they inevitably seize the money left in your account.

Happy Hunting