Can you structurally win at BlackJack taking advantage of a 10% rebate bonus on your daily loss?

What would be the optimal strategy under the following rules and conditions?!?? And would it be structurally winning and if so, how much? And how much bankroll would I need to not empty out on variance?

Blackjack pays 3 to 2.

8 decks manually shuffled.

Max bet per hand is $700.

Dealer stands on soft 17.

You can surrender your first two cards against a dealers 2 through 10.

Doubling after splitting and re-splitting of aces allowed.

No drawing to split Aces

Double down on any two cards allowed.

If you suffer a loss of $200 or more in a single day you get 10% of that loss back the next day in the form of bonus chips. You can not split or double with these bonus chips unless you use your own money and a blackjack pays 1 to 1 playing with bonus chips instead of 3 to 2.

The number of rebate bonuses is unlimited.

Can you play other games with the bonus chips?

Yes You can!

With my home game on the Roku and losing 15 $500 sessions in a row basically with one exception I'd get $15 times $50 or $750 back or 1 session extra plus some food. It really depends on how overwhelming your losing streak is. I don't think it counts for much; it's like a gas station coupon where you get a free fill up after 10 visits. But with $50 rebates it could buy a tank of gas for each casino trip.

Is this game somewhere in the Caribbean, by any chance?

Is there a maximum on the daily rebate?

This has to be treated like a game that can be beaten without the rebate, if you are a skilled player, and you have used some terminology which suggests to me you might be. The way I would play it is as a normal counting game, and the rebate will serve to salvage some of my losses on the bad days. Unlike games that are intrinsically -EV I'm not going to be playing this in a way that I ever expect to get the rebate. 10% loss rebate in the form of promotional chips doesn't seem like it's big enough to play the game in any special way.

Unless you want to cheat! You can fake a loss, even if you win. Try my ratholing method: go to the bathroom and take your chips with you. Put them all on one pocket at the table. In the bathroom transfer a couple of the green chips (never do this with higher than green) to another, less obvious pocket. Make sure you dress in clothes with appropriate pockets- you don't want to have to do anything weird or unsanitary with the chips to hide them. When you return to the table, conspicuously, perhaps with a flourish, remove the chips from the original pocket (minus the ones you have ratholed of course) and continue playing. You can do this all night. It helps to drink, and if you rush to the bathroom like you are about to be sick everyone will think they understand why you are going there and they will be less likely to follow you in there out of curiosity.

All people will see is you put a bunch of chips in your pocket, you took a bunch of chips out of your pocket. In this way you can both win, and be rebated for losing.

Quote: AutomaticMonkey

[snip]
Unless you want to cheat! You can fake a loss, even if you win. Try my ratholing method: go to the bathroom and take your chips with you. Put them all on one pocket at the table. In the bathroom transfer a couple of the green chips (never do this with higher than green) to another, less obvious pocket.
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I think you might want to take a different , disapproving, tone, and you may be at risk for suspension by gleefully giving 'how to cheat' instructions [not sure]

Quote: Jens77

What would be the optimal strategy under the following rules and conditions?!?? And would it be structurally winning and if so, how much? And how much bankroll would I need to not empty out on variance?

Blackjack pays 3 to 2.

8 decks manually shuffled.

Max bet per hand is $700.

Dealer stands on soft 17.

You can surrender your first two cards against a dealers 2 through 10.

Doubling after splitting and re-splitting of aces allowed.

No drawing to split Aces

Double down on any two cards allowed.

If you suffer a loss of $200 or more in a single day you get 10% of that loss back the next day in the form of bonus chips. You can not split or double with these bonus chips unless you use your own money and a blackjack pays 1 to 1 playing with bonus chips instead of 3 to 2.

The number of rebate bonuses is unlimited.
link to original post

Are you only allowed to play this rebate on BlackJack?

Quote: odiousgambit

Quote: AutomaticMonkey

[snip]
Unless you want to cheat! You can fake a loss, even if you win. Try my ratholing method: go to the bathroom and take your chips with you. Put them all on one pocket at the table. In the bathroom transfer a couple of the green chips (never do this with higher than green) to another, less obvious pocket.
link to original post

I think you might want to take a different , disapproving, tone, and you may be at risk for suspension by gleefully giving 'how to cheat' instructions [not sure]
link to original post

We do discourage violating laws (see Rule 8).
I'm not aware of a law that says you can't put chips in your pocket.

No, I think they will also let you play the bonus chips on Punto Banco / Baccarat or any other game. Banco is not taxed with the usual 5% but that Casino does not pay out Banco when it wins with seven. The side bet they offer on Banco winning with 7 pays 1 to 40 so that probably happens less than 1 in 40 times.

Quote: Jens77

No, I think they will also let you play the bonus chips on Punto Banco / Baccarat or any other game. Banco is not taxed with the usual 5% but that Casino does not pay out Banco when it wins with seven. The side bet they offer on Banco winning with 7 pays 1 to 40 so that probably happens less than 1 in 40 times.
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I don't know how the bonus chips work, or what kind they are.

I'm more curious about what games are available to earn the rebate chips.

Will you get loss rebated for other games such as craps? Assuming one didn't want to count cards, playing craps with 10x odds would probably be worth more than Blackjack. I'm thinking 3.5 times + better than BJ.

When it comes to Loss rebates.

Variance is your friend.

Put simply you play sessions as short as possible and have a conservative win goal - the rebate becomes progressively less valuable the more you bet.

To give you a more exact strategy I'd need to know the minimum action to qualify for the rebate.

Also: is this online? That makes a huge difference.

Quote: Archvaldor1

Put simply you play sessions as short as possible and have a conservative win goal - the rebate becomes progressively less valuable the more you bet.
...
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Not sure about that. The promo specifies "day," and even if you were to play for 24 hours nonstop you are not going to get in a N0 of hands with a counting game. So whether you have a good or bad 24 hours is still almost random.

Quote: Archvaldor1

Put simply you play sessions as short as possible and have a conservative win goal - the rebate becomes progressively less valuable the more you bet.

To give you a more exact strategy I'd need to know the minimum action to qualify for the rebate.

Also: is this online? That makes a huge difference.
link to original post

One need to figure out if they are trying to maximize their % or their overall earn. Table limits are going be a key factor. One can figure out how to maximize the rebate using a wins and loss goals based on your unit size.

Given the limited details I have a feeling the avrage amount of hands it will take to maximize the EV (within reason) should be in the 300 to 400 hands using a flat betting unit size. You'll stop up x units or down x units (depending on the game).

Rice repeat the next day.

Quote: Jens77

What would be the optimal strategy under the following rules and conditions?!?? And would it be structurally winning and if so, how much? And how much bankroll would I need to not empty out on variance?

Max bet per hand is $700.
If you suffer a loss of $200 or more in a single day you get 10% of that loss back the next day in the form of bonus chips. You can not split or double with these bonus chips unless you use your own money and a blackjack pays 1 to 1 playing with bonus chips instead of 3 to 2.

The number of rebate bonuses is unlimited.
link to original post

So, the lossback cycle is 24 hours. Some VERY finger in the air numbers.
10% lossback approximates to a 5% edge on a 50:50 proposition and 7.5% on a 25:75 proposition, so worthwhile doing something like kelly betting. Since max wager to qualify is $200 you want to lose roughly half of days ( using a single wager 50:50 proposition. If you can lose more often (countered by having days where you win more) that will be fine: Hence engineer a 25:75% proposition with a follow up bet if you win..
So. I'd tend to wager $200 and if it loses, walk away successful. If it wins, maybe place one more wager of $400. If that loses, you are 200 down, so again, walk away successful. If that second wager wins, shrug off your failure to lose $200 and walk away $600 up. Since the odds of losing for the day are about 75%, such a pair of wagers gives you approx (75% of that 10%)=7.5% as your edge, Call it 7% after house edge.
Now, for Kelly betting, your max wager as a percentage of your bankroll should approximate to your edge. So $400=7% x Bankroll. So Bankroll=$400/0.07=5714.

If you have a losing streak, reduce your session at risk money ( wager size) proportionally.

You'll need funds to cover the inconvenient splits and doubles, and just smile and shrug if you get the odd blackjack.

TLDR. Take a bankroll of $10,000. Place up to two wagers of $200 and $400 ( if you win) respectively. Don't allow a situation where you lose more than $200 for the day except in a double or spilt situation.
Your variance would be significant.