Wizard
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January 19th, 2025 at 4:41:55 PM permalink
I've been saying for at least ten years now that it's hard to find anything new to say about gambling. However, I've really hit a wall lately. I enjoy analyzing games and writing about them. However, I feel like I've analyzed everything out there. I hardly ever see a new table game. The legal environment is there is little incentive to innovate. It takes at least $50,000 to develop and get to field trial a new game, most of the time. In the unlikely chance it is successful, there is little to stop the big companies from stealing it and simply give it a new name. I could spend all day walking through casinos and not see anything new.

My question for the forum is there anything in the casinos you feel I haven't given proper attention to? Any gambling questions I haven't not properly answered?

I welcome all thoughts and suggestions. Thank you.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
TomG
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RogerKintMukkeMichaelBluejay
January 19th, 2025 at 5:20:33 PM permalink
How about simply be more creative with it.

There wasn't too much more to say about the mechanics of a hi-lo count after Thorpe's book. But I liked the story Mezrich told of people actually using it.

Instead of analyzing blackjack switch to tell us the best decision to make, analyze why it boomed as blackjack variant then disappeared and tell us that story.

It's very easy (and very boring) to figure out how much a casino earns per dollar bet on all the types of roulette, European, single zero, double zero, triple zero. It's elusive to figure out which one will give a casino the highest earnings. That could be interesting.

Personally, I'm most interested in the relatively new and pervasive sportsbook model of offering bets that they don't want customers to make, then limiting and backing off anyone who does make those bets.
Dobrij
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January 19th, 2025 at 5:35:56 PM permalink
First of all, I would like to thank you for the work you have done! It is very informative and has helped a huge number of people!


As for ideas and directions, in my personal observation, although there really have been few innovations in gambling lately, the following directions seem relevant to me:

Everything related to the probabilities of the result ranges.

a) Bets on a streak and the like. (this is unusual)
b) Probabilities of the game ranges. (since casinos are increasingly using rollbacks, advantage players take this into account when playing even in games with a negative mathematical expectation).
c) Buying bonus games is becoming very popular in slots
EvenBob
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January 19th, 2025 at 6:25:51 PM permalink
Take different betting systems that claim to work and explain why they don't work. Even buy a book that says it has the 'secret' inside and give the reasons why it will never work. Or give the reasons why they might work if that's the case.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
AutomaticMonkey
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January 19th, 2025 at 7:29:06 PM permalink
Just the last thing to cross my mind: linked progressive jackpots on different table games. For example that thing the Venetian has been doing, big jackpot over $2.5M for rare hands (I think it's a diamond RF) on the poker-based carnival games, but the games all have different probabilities of seeing the hands. Seems like there should be some advantage to playing one and not the other. I see that in a lot of casinos now.

The impression I get is that the industry, like many others, is afraid of labor. That may be the biggest incentive to dump table games and replace them with slots- little to no labor involved in running a slot bank. I can remember when you were never out of sight of a restroom in a casino. Now you have to walk to the other side of the floor in some places. A restroom is labor- you have to assign someone to clean and resupply it, needs to be inspected continuously 24 hours a day because that's a popular place to do slip-and-falls and other kinds of bad behavior, so they'd rather say screw patron comfort, shut them down and wall them off.

Now you know the quality of dealers they've been getting these days, no English, bad attitude, not very competent, and if that's what they're going to get for what they're willing to pay, I can understand why they want to eliminate labor, and there's no way they want to try to teach them to deal a new and interesting game. Especially if there is only one or two tables of it, then they need to make sure they have qualified main and relief dealers for it on every shift they want it open. That's a lot of training to do (of people who are not exactly quick studies to begin with) to accommodate 1 or 2 tables.
odiousgambit
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January 20th, 2025 at 3:44:14 AM permalink
I think you should update your writing on sportsbooks, what with so much of the action being online ... it really presents something quite different from walking into a brick and mortar sportsbook
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
billryan
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January 20th, 2025 at 3:47:41 AM permalink
Quote: AutomaticMonkey

Just the last thing to cross my mind: linked progressive jackpots on different table games. For example that thing the Venetian has been doing, big jackpot over $2.5M for rare hands (I think it's a diamond RF) on the poker-based carnival games, but the games all have different probabilities of seeing the hands. Seems like there should be some advantage to playing one and not the other. I see that in a lot of casinos now.

The impression I get is that the industry, like many others, is afraid of labor. That may be the biggest incentive to dump table games and replace them with slots- little to no labor involved in running a slot bank. I can remember when you were never out of sight of a restroom in a casino. Now you have to walk to the other side of the floor in some places. A restroom is labor- you have to assign someone to clean and resupply it, needs to be inspected continuously 24 hours a day because that's a popular place to do slip-and-falls and other kinds of bad behavior, so they'd rather say screw patron comfort, shut them down and wall them off.

Now you know the quality of dealers they've been getting these days, no English, bad attitude, not very competent, and if that's what they're going to get for what they're willing to pay, I can understand why they want to eliminate labor, and there's no way they want to try to teach them to deal a new and interesting game. Especially if there is only one or two tables of it, then they need to make sure they have qualified main and relief dealers for it on every shift they want it open. That's a lot of training to do (of people who are not exactly quick studies to begin with) to accommodate 1 or 2 tables.
link to original post



Do casinos teach their employees how to deal games? I thought people went to schools to learn games and were certified before the casinos hired them?
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
100xOdds
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January 20th, 2025 at 4:17:04 AM permalink
Quote: TomG

Instead of analyzing blackjack switch to tell us the best decision to make, analyze why it boomed as blackjack variant then disappeared and tell us that story.
link to original post


Yes, what happened to it?
I remember playing it at Casino Royale in Vegas a couple of decades ago. it was amazing with Switched bj auto wins so .18% HE!!!

Then a couple yrs later when i went back, they changed it to not auto win. :(

I haven't seen it this decade yet i still see Freebet BJ.
Why did it die?
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
100xOdds
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January 20th, 2025 at 4:35:57 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I've been saying for at least ten years now that it's hard to find anything new to say about gambling. However, I've really hit a wall lately. I enjoy analyzing games and writing about them. However, I feel like I've analyzed everything out there. I hardly ever see a new table game. The legal environment is there is little incentive to innovate. It takes at least $50,000 to develop and get to field trial a new game, most of the time. In the unlikely chance it is successful, there is little to stop the big companies from stealing it and simply give it a new name. I could spend all day walking through casinos and not see anything new.

My question for the forum is there anything in the casinos you feel I haven't given proper attention to? Any gambling questions I haven't not properly answered?

I welcome all thoughts and suggestions. Thank you.
link to original post


How about writing about gambling trends?

ie: High limit ($25/spin min) Dragon link
Grand progressive used to be capped at $1,888,888.
Then casinos uncapped it.

At one casino where it went to $2.5M, i've seen people betting $250/spin trying to hit it.
That casino has auto-pay till like $25k so if your win was less than $25k, you didn't need a slot attendant. Press a button on the slot screen to credit the $ into the slot with a w-2g recorded to your players card. Saves lots of time.
You can pick up the accumulated w-2g's at the cage whenever you want, including end of year.

One strategy is set the bet at $125 but only put in a $100 bill and press Lucky Chance.
Most of the time, you get a $125 bet for only $100.
It waaaaay slows down your play but if your usual bankroll is for $25/spin, this adds excitement by playing 5x your normal *AND* a huge progressive.
And you're sitting in that seat for longer and enjoying more of the moment by doing this.

Basically, more wealthy people have so much discretionary $ now because of the stock market and/or their baby boomer parents dying that they're blowing it for a chance for the new novelty of HUGE progressives on slots they normally play.
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
DRich
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January 20th, 2025 at 5:20:40 AM permalink
Quote: billryan



Do casinos teach their employees how to deal games? I thought people went to schools to learn games and were certified before the casinos hired them?



In the big jurisdictions there are usually "Dealer Schools" that run from three to six weeks for training. The new jurisdictions generally have the staff train dealers. They will hire experienced table game managers and pit personnel and have them train new dealers from the local area.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
Dieter
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January 20th, 2025 at 5:38:24 AM permalink
Quote: billryan


Do casinos teach their employees how to deal games? I thought people went to schools to learn games and were certified before the casinos hired them?
link to original post



As I understand, many prospective dealers go to "school" to learn cheque handling, card handling, pay/take procedure, and a standard way to deal one game (usually blackjack).

Getting the gaming license seems to be part of the hiring process - a background check, an application fee, and a few extra days for processing between the audition and the first shift, if you don't already have the card.

Learning house specific procedures and any other games is on-the-job training.
May the cards fall in your favor.
100xOdds
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January 20th, 2025 at 6:45:22 AM permalink
Quote: Dieter

Quote: billryan


Do casinos teach their employees how to deal games? I thought people went to schools to learn games and were certified before the casinos hired them?
link to original post


As I understand, many prospective dealers go to "school" to learn cheque handling, card handling, pay/take procedure, and a standard way to deal one game (usually blackjack).

Getting the gaming license seems to be part of the hiring process - a background check, an application fee, and a few extra days for processing between the audition and the first shift, if you don't already have the card.

Learning house specific procedures and any other games is on-the-job training.
link to original post


Poker dealer is probably the best position. you get to keep your own tips. (30hands/hr = avg $30+/hr + $5/hr salary)
the casino will once in a while hold a free poker school for in house employees.
During the poker boom of 2 decades ago, there used to be (not free) poker training for anyone at dealer school after you take the basic intro casino course.

Now with poker solved by GTO, fish are losing their $ FAST thus poker isn't as popular.
So if you want to be a poker dealer now, you usually have to get a job as a table dealer then after at least 6 months, sign up for in house poker training.
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
smoothgrh
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January 20th, 2025 at 9:40:52 AM permalink
This probably takes too much work to compile data, but I was intrigued by the sportsbook baseball bet about whether a team will score in the first inning against a particular opponent starter.

Especially interesting to me is that my Oakland A's had for a season an experimental "designated starter" in which a relief pitcher pitched only the first inning, then the regular starting rotation pitcher came in.
Wizard
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January 20th, 2025 at 4:15:07 PM permalink
Thank you for all the suggestions so far. I appreciate it.

As to sports, I'll probably update my NFL data after this season. I could stand to update the NBA too.

As to how dealers learn to deal, they usually go do a dealing school. The schools are mostly the students dealing to each other. I shouldn't put them down as I haven't been to any. However, I can say that many times at the craps tables a dealer would recognize me from my videos and say he learned the rules from them.

I think I'll do some more betting system videos. I'll start with analyzing the system of any video with more than say 250,000 views. If anyone want to suggest one, I'm all ears.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
billryan
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January 20th, 2025 at 4:23:54 PM permalink
I'd have thought that the explosion of online gambling, with the multiple jurisdictions, rules and bonuses would have inspired a whole chapter of articles.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
Dieter
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January 20th, 2025 at 5:13:47 PM permalink
(snipped!)

Quote: Wizard


I think I'll do some more betting system videos. I'll start with analyzing the system of any video with more than say 250,000 views. If anyone want to suggest one, I'm all ears.
link to original post



There is one Youtube slot player who seems to put in $100 and try to double it before he goes broke.
I'm reasonably sure he is not playing with an advantage, but a review of how often he doubles up vs how often he goes broke (or rebuys) might be interesting.

(He seems to get around 20k views per video, with obnoxious commentary - even by the usual low standards of slot channels.)
May the cards fall in your favor.
DRich
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January 20th, 2025 at 6:49:37 PM permalink
Quote: Dieter



There is one Youtube slot player who seems to put in $100 and try to double it before he goes broke.
I'm reasonably sure he is not playing with an advantage, but a review of how often he doubles up vs how often he goes broke (or rebuys) might be interesting.

(He seems to get around 20k views per video, with obnoxious commentary - even by the usual low standards of slot channels.)



My question is does he post all of the losing videos? I wouldn't, winning generates more clicks.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
Dieter
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January 20th, 2025 at 10:20:50 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

Quote: Dieter



There is one Youtube slot player who seems to put in $100 and try to double it before he goes broke.
I'm reasonably sure he is not playing with an advantage, but a review of how often he doubles up vs how often he goes broke (or rebuys) might be interesting.

(He seems to get around 20k views per video, with obnoxious commentary - even by the usual low standards of slot channels.)



My question is does he post all of the losing videos? I wouldn't, winning generates more clicks.
link to original post



I honestly don't know if he posts all the losing sessions.
With his particular style, he could, while keeping the subscribers engaged.
I know he used to post losing sessions, but his increased bankroll would allow for some tricky selectivity while maintaining a similar overall format.
May the cards fall in your favor.
100xOdds
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January 21st, 2025 at 4:44:06 AM permalink
Quote: Dieter

(snipped!)

Quote: Wizard


I think I'll do some more betting system videos. I'll start with analyzing the system of any video with more than say 250,000 views. If anyone want to suggest one, I'm all ears.
link to original post



There is one Youtube slot player who seems to put in $100 and try to double it before he goes broke.
I'm reasonably sure he is not playing with an advantage, but a review of how often he doubles up vs how often he goes broke (or rebuys) might be interesting.

(He seems to get around 20k views per video, with obnoxious commentary - even by the usual low standards of slot channels.)
link to original post


Wiz, hopefully you have a marketing budget.
Do slot videos. :)

$200 in a non-AP machine at high denom but lowest bet (ie: .10 so $5)
Play till
1) you're broke
2) good line hit
3) bonus

Rinse/repeat till you're out of marketing $
ask for more marketing $
rinse/repeat :)
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
DRich
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January 21st, 2025 at 4:49:54 AM permalink
A video that I think people may like is you playing video poker and showing hands that are regularly played incorrectly. Everytime you get one of those hands do a breakdown of it by cutting to an analysis showing the returns for the hold that most people are making and then the returns for the proper hold. Basically, a teaching video.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
Wizard
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January 21st, 2025 at 6:25:29 AM permalink
Quote: Dieter


There is one Youtube slot player who seems to put in $100 and try to double it before he goes broke.
I'm reasonably sure he is not playing with an advantage, but a review of how often he doubles up vs how often he goes broke (or rebuys) might be interesting.

(He seems to get around 20k views per video, with obnoxious commentary - even by the usual low standards of slot channels.)
link to original post



Are you referring to Color Up?
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Dieter
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January 21st, 2025 at 10:09:46 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Quote: Dieter


There is one Youtube slot player who seems to put in $100 and try to double it before he goes broke.
I'm reasonably sure he is not playing with an advantage, but a review of how often he doubles up vs how often he goes broke (or rebuys) might be interesting.

(He seems to get around 20k views per video, with obnoxious commentary - even by the usual low standards of slot channels.)
link to original post



Are you referring to Color Up?
link to original post



No, but that seems similarly interesting.
May the cards fall in your favor.
AutomaticMonkey
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January 21st, 2025 at 1:07:38 PM permalink
Oooh, parapsychological research! Along the lines of Daryl Bem. We may be able to perceive the future to some degree. A grand experiment that will have implications extending far beyond gaming! A magnum opus!

Two very different statements, but from which can be deduced the same thing:

1) "I can see the position of the slot machine reels 5 seconds into the future."
2) "I can feel what my mental state will be after I see the reels 5 seconds from now."

The first one is likely forbidden by a naturalistic explanation. But the second, not so strongly, depending on how much anthropism you accept in natural science. For if Penrose and Hameroff are right and the human mind is sensitive to quantized events, there isn't necessarily entropy and thus there is no hard reason why events can't be reversible in time.

So I wonder which casino would allow a volunteer for the experiment to sit at a machine or table, wired up to an EEG and penile plethysmograph and track their physiological data relative to events: the last hand and the last series of hands (to normalize), and the next hand and hands which they have not yet experienced. Will it make a difference if they are playing with their own money, for keeps, or with funds provided by the experiment? Will it make a difference if they are playing for enough to induce an emotional response, or much less than that? How will an experienced counter at a blackjack table, who has made a prediction of the next hand with his count, fare relative to a basic strategy player for whom all hands are the same until he sees the cards? It seems like casino denizens are uniquely qualified to work such an experiment and gather enough data to come to a reasonable conclusion.
AxelWolf
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January 21st, 2025 at 7:13:33 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I've been saying for at least ten years now that it's hard to find anything new to say about gambling. However, I've really hit a wall lately. I enjoy analyzing games and writing about them. However, I feel like I've analyzed everything out there. I hardly ever see a new table game. The legal environment is there is little incentive to innovate. It takes at least $50,000 to develop and get to field trial a new game, most of the time. In the unlikely chance it is successful, there is little to stop the big companies from stealing it and simply give it a new name. I could spend all day walking through casinos and not see anything new.

My question for the forum is there anything in the casinos you feel I haven't given proper attention to? Any gambling questions I haven't not properly answered?

I welcome all thoughts and suggestions. Thank you.
link to original post

Do a hard ball interview with Mikki Mase.

let's see if he can fool yet another interviewer. If nothing else, he will distract you with some hot chicks and fancy comps.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
Mukke
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January 23rd, 2025 at 2:47:22 PM permalink
You could address something like this?

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/questions-and-answers/math/39834-fair-deal-when-holding-separate-number-of-tickets-to-casino-lottery/#post947166

It has real world application, and is surprisingly complex and I believe the consequences are very unintuitive. For instance I believe that the only fair approach will result in a situation where it's actually to your advantage to be picked last!

And you can add a level of complexity by introducing a third person, with person 2 and 3 to be "together" for the sake of interest.


In fact I'm surprised none of the math nerds in this forum picked up that post.
Wizard
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January 24th, 2025 at 3:40:12 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

Do a hard ball interview with Mikki Mase.

let's see if he can fool yet another interviewer. If nothing else, he will distract you with some hot chicks and fancy comps.
link to original post



I'm open to it, but don't know how to reach him. Hopefully I won't be taken in by the hot women who hang around him.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Wizard
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January 24th, 2025 at 3:41:28 PM permalink
In my current direction of making more videos, I just threw together this one. I'm open to suggestions of other strategies or betting systems to debunk.



Direct: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eK5MF-yXmBk
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
heatmap
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January 24th, 2025 at 3:47:24 PM permalink
Create hypothetical casino games but go through the process of creating them with us
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