Counting Double Up

Hi all, I am a new AP and will there are a lot of games near me it seems that the double up table has the best odds of any of the local BJ. I know the strategy for double up is different, but before I memorize it, I am curious is anyone knows if counting this game will result in advantage. I don't know how to run a simulation of it in any software and haven't been able to find any information on it.

I am all but certain there is a advantage. 10 value cards favor the player in Blackjack, and this only amplifies that factor with doubling on 20's. I haven't seen anything online around AP play for this game either, and am a little surprised because this game has a fair number of installations.

Quote: Deyxter

Hi all, I am a new AP and will there are a lot of games near me it seems that the double up table has the best odds of any of the local BJ. I know the strategy for double up is different, but before I memorize it, I am curious is anyone knows if counting this game will result in advantage. I don't know how to run a simulation of it in any software and haven't been able to find any information on it.
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Double DOWN is the best situation for the bj player. Contrary to tradition, it is the negative count most favorable to DD hands. Tthe probability is very high to get pairs that make 8, 9, 10, 11 against dealer 4, 5, 6 in NEGATIVE counts, no? It is obvious!

This reasoning makes a lot of sense mathematically. In NEGATIVE counts, there are fewer T and more 2-6. The probability is HIGHER to get DD pairs that sum up to 9, 10, 11. Many more chances of 3+6, 4+6, 5+6, 5+5… ignoring 7, 8, 9. Clearly the prob is higher to get 2-6 in the first two cards. As a result the deck enriches in 10s, no? There is a real mathematical chance that my DD hand will be hit by 10. Its probability that says so, not wishful thinking.

There is a thread here dedicated to your subject:
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/blackjack/39431-card-counting-quirks/#post933294

Quote: toolyp

Quote: Deyxter

Hi all, I am a new AP and will there are a lot of games near me it seems that the double up table has the best odds of any of the local BJ. I know the strategy for double up is different, but before I memorize it, I am curious is anyone knows if counting this game will result in advantage. I don't know how to run a simulation of it in any software and haven't been able to find any information on it.
link to original post

Double DOWN is the best situation for the bj player. Contrary to tradition, it is the negative count most favorable to DD hands. Tthe probability is very high to get pairs that make 8, 9, 10, 11 against dealer 4, 5, 6 in NEGATIVE counts, no? It is obvious!

This reasoning makes a lot of sense mathematically. In NEGATIVE counts, there are fewer T and more 2-6. The probability is HIGHER to get DD pairs that sum up to 9, 10, 11. Many more chances of 3+6, 4+6, 5+6, 5+5… ignoring 7, 8, 9. Clearly the prob is higher to get 2-6 in the first two cards. As a result the deck enriches in 10s, no? There is a real mathematical chance that my DD hand will be hit by 10. Its probability that says so, not wishful thinking.

There is a thread here dedicated to your subject:
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/blackjack/39431-card-counting-quirks/#post933294
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toolyp,

I finally have had enough of these specious claims of yours.

I ran a 400-million-round CVData sim of a 6D, H17, DAS game with 75% penetration for a heads-up HiLo player.

This chart shows the percentage of Double Down and Split hands as a function of TC. As you can see, for all TC's of -4 to +8 we DD on 10% or more of the rounds, so at high TC's we DD much more frequently than at low TC's, where the DD% falls to 7%.

The percentage of split hands is relatively constant at about 6% for TC's in the range of -4 to +5, and drops off below -4 and above +5.



I sincerely hope this clarifies the matter for you.

Dog Hand

Quote: DogHand

Quote: toolyp

Quote: Deyxter

Hi all, I am a new AP and will there are a lot of games near me it seems that the double up table has the best odds of any of the local BJ. I know the strategy for double up is different, but before I memorize it, I am curious is anyone knows if counting this game will result in advantage. I don't know how to run a simulation of it in any software and haven't been able to find any information on it.
link to original post

Double DOWN is the best situation for the bj player. Contrary to tradition, it is the negative count most favorable to DD hands. Tthe probability is very high to get pairs that make 8, 9, 10, 11 against dealer 4, 5, 6 in NEGATIVE counts, no? It is obvious!

This reasoning makes a lot of sense mathematically. In NEGATIVE counts, there are fewer T and more 2-6. The probability is HIGHER to get DD pairs that sum up to 9, 10, 11. Many more chances of 3+6, 4+6, 5+6, 5+5… ignoring 7, 8, 9. Clearly the prob is higher to get 2-6 in the first two cards. As a result the deck enriches in 10s, no? There is a real mathematical chance that my DD hand will be hit by 10. Its probability that says so, not wishful thinking.

There is a thread here dedicated to your subject:
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/blackjack/39431-card-counting-quirks/#post933294
link to original post

toolyp,

I finally have had enough of these specious claims of yours.

I ran a 400-million-round CVData sim of a 6D, H17, DAS game with 75% penetration for a heads-up HiLo player.

This chart shows the percentage of Double Down and Split hands as a function of TC. As you can see, for all TC's of -4 to +8 we DD on 10% or more of the rounds, so at high TC's we DD much more frequently than at low TC's, where the DD% falls to 7%.

The percentage of split hands is relatively constant at about 6% for TC's in the range of -4 to +5, and drops off below -4 and above +5.



I sincerely hope this clarifies the matter for you.

Dog Hand
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So it is from MINUS to plus!!! Is that your counting: betting higher on MINUS??? How can you get more DD hands in plus when there is an excess of Tens??? NO DD HAND HAS 10 IN ITS COMPOSITION. Instead, most DD hands have 2, 3,4,5,6 in the composition.

And I finally have had enuff of all those *selective* sims – choose only the runs that prove your point.

It sounds like there’s some confusion about the counting system and the impact of betting strategies. Betting higher on a negative count can indeed be counterproductive if the deck is not favorable. The key is understanding how the composition of hands and card values impact your strategy.

If you're seeing an excess of Tens, it’s important to adjust your strategy accordingly. Most Double Down (DD) hands often rely on lower cards like 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6, so a high count of Tens might make those hands less favorable.

I agree that selective simulations can be misleading. It’s crucial to look at a broad range of data to get a clear picture. Consistent and accurate simulations should account for all possible scenarios to provide a balanced view.

Let’s make sure we’re evaluating strategies with comprehensive data and not just selective examples!