ssho88
Joined: Oct 16, 2011
• Posts: 583
November 12th, 2021 at 8:40:53 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Quote: ssho88

Based on your defined game rules and average multiplier values, as well as conventional basic strategy, my 1 billion trials simulation results show that the house advantage is 18.09%. A little bit different from yours, I don't know where I went wrong.

I'm actually happy we are that close. This is a difficult game to simulate as there are lots of different game states. It is possible the error is on my end too.

Quote:

The current hand strategy largely depends on (current hand EV1 + next hand EV2), multiplier has a great influence on the basic strategy, and the correct basic strategy requires more accurate multiplier values.

I agree.

Quote:

Another question : Suppose you split, lose one hand and win the other. Is your multiplier still active in the next round ?

I interpret the answer to that question as yes. You need just one win to earn a multiplier. Somebody correct me if I'm wrong.

I found that in your Expected Return Table(https://wizardofodds.com/games/lightning-blackjack/), the probability of DOUBLE WIN and DOUBLE LOSS is slightly higher than my figures. I guess we are using different conventional basic strategy, should HIT for 11 vs T instead of DOUBLE ?
OnceDear

Joined: Jun 1, 2014
• Posts: 6112
November 12th, 2021 at 8:46:55 AM permalink
Quote: ssho88

I found that in your Expected Return Table(https://wizardofodds.com/games/lightning-blackjack/), the probability of DOUBLE WIN and DOUBLE LOSS is slightly higher than my figures. I guess we are using different conventional basic strategy, should HIT for 11 vs T instead of DOUBLE ?

They don't peek on Dealer ten. Though Wizard says it makes no difference because one only loses original wager, I reckon you should NOT double on 11 vs Dealer 10

What a brilliantly sneaky game this is. Looks like Blackjack, Plays like blackjack. 18% house edge if you play Blackjack strategy. Who would expect that?

Optimum strategy must be something like 'Maximise probability of a win to lock in the bonus', NOT 'maximise the EV on the base game'
That might even mean you should sacrifice classic +EV plays in favour of a higher probability, smaller win.

Whatever strategy changes can make so much difference?

Roll on with best strategy, someone?
Beware. The earth is NOT flat. Hit and run is not a winning strategy: Pressing into trends IS not a winning strategy: Progressives are not a winning strategy: Don't Buy It! .Don't even take it for free.
ssho88
Joined: Oct 16, 2011
• Posts: 583
November 12th, 2021 at 8:51:57 AM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

Quote: ssho88

I found that in your Expected Return Table(https://wizardofodds.com/games/lightning-blackjack/), the probability of DOUBLE WIN and DOUBLE LOSS is slightly higher than my figures. I guess we are using different conventional basic strategy, should HIT for 11 vs T instead of DOUBLE ?

They don't peek on Dealer ten. Though Wizard says it makes no difference because one only loses original wager, I reckon you should NOT double on 11 vs Dealer 10

Correct, I just HIT 11 vs T. May be that is the reason why my probability of DOUBLE WIN/LOSS is lower than WIZARD's figures.
Mission146
Joined: May 15, 2012
• Posts: 15243
November 12th, 2021 at 11:17:30 AM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

Quote: Mission146

RE: Peek Policy

Do you happen to know, based on the dealer not peeking when a ten is up, whether the player loses the full amount bet or just the original bet to a dealer natural? As I understand it, if the player would lose the original bet only, then it doesn't mathematically matter whether or not the dealer peeks.

Wouldn't it make a strategy difference? I.e. Peek on ten, you double an ace against 10, knowing he doesn't have blackjack. No peek, you would hit rather than double an ace against ten?

That's why it matters whether or not you only lose the original bet. If it's no peek, but you double and lose, but it's also only lose the original bet...then the amount that you doubled for gets pushed back to you.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Mission146
Joined: May 15, 2012
• Posts: 15243
November 12th, 2021 at 11:23:08 AM permalink
Basically similar to Wizard, my advice was to totally avoid this game in favor of standard Blackjack, and that's before I knew the House Edge with Optimal Blackjack (Base Game) strategy would be THAT high. I just knew the game would be borderline impossible to play properly and many standard online Blackjack games have a similar House Edge (as advertised by Evolution) without the gimmick.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
• Posts: 23725
November 12th, 2021 at 12:47:40 PM permalink
Quote: ssho88

I found that in your Expected Return Table(https://wizardofodds.com/games/lightning-blackjack/), the probability of DOUBLE WIN and DOUBLE LOSS is slightly higher than my figures. I guess we are using different conventional basic strategy, should HIT for 11 vs T instead of DOUBLE ?

I should have had the player hit 11 vs. 10, but I now see that I forgot to make that change. My bad. I don't think I will rerun the simulation over just this. I don't want to invest too much time into this if I don't have exact numbers for the average multipliers.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
ssho88
Joined: Oct 16, 2011
• Posts: 583
November 12th, 2021 at 5:01:38 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I should have had the player hit 11 vs. 10, but I now see that I forgot to make that change. My bad. I don't think I will rerun the simulation over just this. I don't want to invest too much time into this if I don't have exact numbers for the average multipliers.

After changing the strategy of 11 vs T to DOUBLE, my simulation results match all the numbers in your Expected Multiplier Table and Expected Return Table.

Even if you know the exact multiplier values, it is difficult to find correct basic strategy. When you change the strategy, the TOTAL EXPECTED MULTIPLIER and PROBABILITY OF HAND OUTCOME will change, this will affect your EXPECTED RETURN, then it will affect your stretegy.....I guess must use trial and error method to find correct basic strategy, what do you think ?
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
• Posts: 23725
November 12th, 2021 at 8:03:18 PM permalink
Quote: ssho88

After changing the strategy of 11 vs T to DOUBLE, my simulation results match all the numbers in your Expected Multiplier Table and Expected Return Table.

Thank you! I think I will rerun it again, out of respect for you.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
OnceDear

Joined: Jun 1, 2014
• Posts: 6112
November 13th, 2021 at 3:09:23 AM permalink
Quote: ssho88

Quote: Wizard

I should have had the player hit 11 vs. 10, but I now see that I forgot to make that change. My bad. I don't think I will rerun the simulation over just this. I don't want to invest too much time into this if I don't have exact numbers for the average multipliers.

After changing the strategy of 11 vs T to DOUBLE, my simulation results match all the numbers in your Expected Multiplier Table and Expected Return Table.

Even if you know the exact multiplier values, it is difficult to find correct basic strategy. When you change the strategy, the TOTAL EXPECTED MULTIPLIER and PROBABILITY OF HAND OUTCOME will change, this will affect your EXPECTED RETURN, then it will affect your stretegy.....I guess must use trial and error method to find correct basic strategy, what do you think ?

If the multipliers are randomised at each round, is it true to say that the optimal strategy will change for every hand. That would make it impossible for a human to play optimal strategy. The 99.56% would be a pipe dream.
Beware. The earth is NOT flat. Hit and run is not a winning strategy: Pressing into trends IS not a winning strategy: Progressives are not a winning strategy: Don't Buy It! .Don't even take it for free.
ssho88
Joined: Oct 16, 2011