charliepatrick
charliepatrick
Joined: Jun 17, 2011
  • Threads: 34
  • Posts: 2510
December 2nd, 2021 at 3:18:35 PM permalink
NB: I have not checked very much, especially whether the correct strategy is being followed. So please only look at the trends not the actual House Edges. Also note these do not take the "Ante" into account, so subtract 1 from all the values.
I'm not sure whether my strategy is being followed (i.e. whether I have transferred all my decisions correctly) but one can see the trend for various hands (the count shows the Multiplier coming in, then the Set of multipliers being carried forward). Typically if the multipliers are higher (i.e. higher set number) you tend to try harder to get towards 21, so the pay-outs for this hand drop a bit.
As I said I don't know the ratio of the set numbers so the bottom line cannot be a realistic indication - as I said earlier I may be hitting the first split hand too much.
The EV of 0.9195... does not take account of having to Pay the "Ante" each round, so the simulation's House Edge is about 8%. So please ignore this value as there's just not enough information!
Parms: ndx:8 sh:1000000 pen:83% Time:23:0:37:564
Count: 0.1 Exp: -0.04148357511305303 Hands: 17885633 Win: 7546539 PayOut: 7546539 Lose: 9500973 Tie: 1611023 BJk: 808316 BJP: 1212474
Count: 0.2 Exp: -0.06315804187202446 Hands: 7154180 Win: 2894951 PayOut: 2894951 Lose: 3832258 Tie: 643154 BJk: 323642 BJP: 485463
Count: 0.3 Exp: -0.06538448375096104 Hands: 4470449 Win: 1797568 PayOut: 1797568 Lose: 2393700 Tie: 401740 BJk: 202556 BJP: 303834
Count: 0.4 Exp: -0.09055808486629695 Hands: 2682549 Win: 1037197 PayOut: 1037197 Lose: 1461976 Tie: 228152 BJk: 121235 BJP: 181852.5
Count: 0.5 Exp: -0.09998456147887608 Hands: 1787736 Win: 662619 PayOut: 662619 Lose: 962949 Tie: 151163 BJk: 81056 BJP: 121584
Count: 0.6 Exp: -0.10212080343273917 Hands: 1788426 Win: 662204 PayOut: 662204 Lose: 966065 Tie: 150007 BJk: 80817 BJP: 121225.5
Count: 2.1 Exp: 0.4632301207167106 Hands: 2437525 Win: 1207089 PayOut: 2414178 Lose: 1505795 Tie: 215777 BJk: 110376 BJP: 220752
Count: 2.2 Exp: 0.43941951279000535 Hands: 975801 Win: 471040 PayOut: 942080 Lose: 601742 Tie: 86023 BJk: 44224 BJP: 88448
Count: 2.3 Exp: 0.431806305236344 Hands: 610445 Win: 294245 PayOut: 588490 Lose: 380440 Tie: 52635 BJk: 27772 BJP: 55544
Count: 2.4 Exp: 0.40027817549601147 Hands: 366675 Win: 166883 PayOut: 333766 Lose: 220268 Tie: 31945 BJk: 16637 BJP: 33274
Count: 2.5 Exp: 0.3634128279716389 Hands: 244419 Win: 103676 PayOut: 207352 Lose: 140869 Tie: 20350 BJk: 11171 BJP: 22342
Count: 2.6 Exp: 0.3335919158088296 Hands: 243636 Win: 96709 PayOut: 193418 Lose: 134511 Tie: 20400 BJk: 11184 BJP: 22368
Count: 3.1 Exp: 1.0417532350981409 Hands: 1626844 Win: 888343 PayOut: 2665029 Lose: 1192049 Tie: 141437 BJk: 73930 BJP: 221790
Count: 3.2 Exp: 1.015029249231196 Hands: 648735 Win: 348600 PayOut: 1045800 Lose: 476262 Tie: 56373 BJk: 29649 BJP: 88947
Count: 3.3 Exp: 1.0098656916694366 Hands: 406155 Win: 218076 PayOut: 654228 Lose: 298588 Tie: 34298 BJk: 18174 BJP: 54522
Count: 3.4 Exp: 0.9793149803477968 Hands: 243993 Win: 128511 PayOut: 385533 Lose: 180001 Tie: 21183 BJk: 11138 BJP: 33414
Count: 3.5 Exp: 0.9563642858462619 Hands: 162367 Win: 82945 PayOut: 248835 Lose: 115816 Tie: 13987 BJk: 7421 BJP: 22263
Count: 3.6 Exp: 0.911240569425602 Hands: 162901 Win: 78957 PayOut: 236871 Lose: 110950 Tie: 13447 BJk: 7507 BJP: 22521
Count: 4.1 Exp: 1.6721937294242444 Hands: 2695223 Win: 1596647 PayOut: 6386588 Lose: 2367973 Tie: 226960 BJk: 122080 BJP: 488320
Count: 4.2 Exp: 1.6536033766549478 Hands: 1077753 Win: 633564 PayOut: 2534256 Lose: 948052 Tie: 89657 BJk: 48993 BJP: 195972
Count: 4.3 Exp: 1.6544075685701038 Hands: 672888 Win: 396035 PayOut: 1584140 Lose: 592317 Tie: 56009 BJk: 30352 BJP: 121408
Count: 4.4 Exp: 1.6220326427813032 Hands: 404990 Win: 234776 PayOut: 939104 Lose: 355721 Tie: 34137 BJk: 18381 BJP: 73524
Count: 4.5 Exp: 1.5964092410221737 Hands: 269191 Win: 149782 PayOut: 599128 Lose: 218377 Tie: 22852 BJk: 12247 BJP: 48988
Count: 4.6 Exp: 1.527822475992733 Hands: 269710 Win: 143357 PayOut: 573428 Lose: 210523 Tie: 22320 BJk: 12291 BJP: 49164
Count: 5.1 Exp: 2.313861643061821 Hands: 2528012 Win: 1513156 PayOut: 7565780 Lose: 2291245 Tie: 212652 BJk: 114987 BJP: 574935
Count: 5.2 Exp: 2.3009359493695962 Hands: 1009670 Win: 607284 PayOut: 3036420 Lose: 942064 Tie: 84117 BJk: 45766 BJP: 228830
Count: 5.3 Exp: 2.293238093583635 Hands: 633209 Win: 380673 PayOut: 1903365 Lose: 594311 Tie: 52251 BJk: 28609 BJP: 143045
Count: 5.4 Exp: 2.301295648154263 Hands: 378575 Win: 227146 PayOut: 1135730 Lose: 349392 Tie: 31676 BJk: 16975 BJP: 84875
Count: 5.5 Exp: 2.2738184694482895 Hands: 252850 Win: 150363 PayOut: 751815 Lose: 233405 Tie: 21054 BJk: 11305 BJP: 56525
Count: 5.6 Exp: 2.2152280885254476 Hands: 252402 Win: 146703 PayOut: 733515 Lose: 231387 Tie: 20899 BJk: 11400 BJP: 57000
Count: 6.1 Exp: 2.9584066605743535 Hands: 1503534 Win: 907376 PayOut: 5444256 Lose: 1403345 Tie: 123874 BJk: 67859 BJP: 407154
Count: 6.2 Exp: 2.951435535079689 Hands: 601901 Win: 364038 PayOut: 2184228 Lose: 568466 Tie: 49729 BJk: 26785 BJP: 160710
Count: 6.3 Exp: 2.939622771903524 Hands: 376218 Win: 226887 PayOut: 1361322 Lose: 355385 Tie: 30897 BJk: 16667 BJP: 100002
Count: 6.4 Exp: 2.9500851350632304 Hands: 225524 Win: 136139 PayOut: 816834 Lose: 213517 Tie: 18474 BJk: 10333 BJP: 61998
Count: 6.5 Exp: 2.929164426924685 Hands: 150687 Win: 90414 PayOut: 542484 Lose: 142011 Tie: 12294 BJk: 6819 BJP: 40914
Count: 6.6 Exp: 2.8766851123408226 Hands: 149990 Win: 88553 PayOut: 531318 Lose: 140326 Tie: 12388 BJk: 6747 BJP: 40482
Count: 8.1 Exp: 4.269767616350093 Hands: 852986 Win: 519161 PayOut: 4153288 Lose: 818324 Tie: 69220 BJk: 38386 BJP: 307088
Count: 8.2 Exp: 4.260744325046842 Hands: 342646 Win: 207903 PayOut: 1663224 Lose: 327561 Tie: 28127 BJk: 15533 BJP: 124264
Count: 8.3 Exp: 4.264874691355132 Hands: 213433 Win: 129588 PayOut: 1036704 Lose: 203383 Tie: 17485 BJk: 9618 BJP: 76944
Count: 8.4 Exp: 4.2623949106011 Hands: 128581 Win: 77999 PayOut: 623992 Lose: 122473 Tie: 10405 BJk: 5818 BJP: 46544
Count: 8.5 Exp: 4.247334605076832 Hands: 85447 Win: 51717 PayOut: 413736 Lose: 82086 Tie: 6908 BJk: 3909 BJP: 31272
Count: 8.6 Exp: 4.235611153329047 Hands: 85535 Win: 51660 PayOut: 413280 Lose: 81475 Tie: 6900 BJk: 3811 BJP: 30488
Count: 10.1 Exp: 5.529431914471668 Hands: 166401 Win: 100553 PayOut: 1005530 Lose: 161517 Tie: 13329 BJk: 7609 BJP: 76090
Count: 10.2 Exp: 5.56565397663023 Hands: 66325 Win: 40297 PayOut: 402970 Lose: 64048 Tie: 5437 BJk: 3022 BJP: 30220
Count: 10.3 Exp: 5.5465503109782555 Hands: 41482 Win: 25161 PayOut: 251610 Lose: 40018 Tie: 3281 BJk: 1849 BJP: 18490
Count: 10.4 Exp: 5.564056152206267 Hands: 24861 Win: 15167 PayOut: 151670 Lose: 23962 Tie: 2005 BJk: 1062 BJP: 10620
Count: 10.5 Exp: 5.5211394844615755 Hands: 16604 Win: 10027 PayOut: 100270 Lose: 16217 Tie: 1343 BJk: 762 BJP: 7620
Count: 10.6 Exp: 5.434637549287231 Hands: 16485 Win: 9789 PayOut: 97890 Lose: 15920 Tie: 1365 BJk: 762 BJP: 7620
Count: 12.1 Exp: 6.889723447356804 Hands: 484754 Win: 295636 PayOut: 3547632 Lose: 471379 Tie: 39019 BJk: 21964 BJP: 263568
Count: 12.2 Exp: 6.92659638057548 Hands: 194064 Win: 118868 PayOut: 1426416 Lose: 188317 Tie: 15463 BJk: 8842 BJP: 106104
Count: 12.3 Exp: 6.900070518936409 Hands: 120535 Win: 73798 PayOut: 885576 Lose: 117356 Tie: 9670 BJk: 5290 BJP: 63480
Count: 12.4 Exp: 6.882513999532202 Hands: 72681 Win: 44364 PayOut: 532368 Lose: 71068 Tie: 5754 BJk: 3244 BJP: 38928
Count: 12.5 Exp: 6.796889276517983 Hands: 48156 Win: 29124 PayOut: 349488 Lose: 47629 Tie: 3686 BJk: 2121 BJP: 25452
Count: 12.6 Exp: 6.847254039997523 Hands: 48453 Win: 29424 PayOut: 353088 Lose: 47202 Tie: 3928 BJk: 2157 BJP: 25884
Count: 15.1 Exp: 8.81284222839327 Hands: 217143 Win: 132045 PayOut: 1980675 Lose: 211823 Tie: 17433 BJk: 9653 BJP: 144795
Count: 15.2 Exp: 8.80559617933367 Hands: 87524 Win: 53195 PayOut: 797925 Lose: 85769 Tie: 7012 BJk: 3903 BJP: 58545
Count: 15.3 Exp: 8.873668611651384 Hands: 53985 Win: 33161 PayOut: 497415 Lose: 52825 Tie: 4306 BJk: 2297 BJP: 34455
Count: 15.4 Exp: 8.833538159026668 Hands: 32548 Win: 19854 PayOut: 297810 Lose: 32061 Tie: 2531 BJk: 1451 BJP: 21765
Count: 15.5 Exp: 8.923147637433352 Hands: 21756 Win: 13345 PayOut: 200175 Lose: 21388 Tie: 1674 BJk: 1023 BJP: 15345
Count: 15.6 Exp: 8.806201907570381 Hands: 21703 Win: 13178 PayOut: 197670 Lose: 21279 Tie: 1670 BJk: 982 BJP: 14730
Count: 20.1 Exp: 12.127636024699989 Hands: 68664 Win: 42052 PayOut: 841040 Lose: 67388 Tie: 5472 BJk: 2954 BJP: 59080
Count: 20.2 Exp: 12.285058905567585 Hands: 27247 Win: 16881 PayOut: 337620 Lose: 26549 Tie: 2193 BJk: 1183 BJP: 23660
Count: 20.3 Exp: 12.334263161018457 Hands: 16849 Win: 10484 PayOut: 209680 Lose: 16380 Tie: 1377 BJk: 726 BJP: 14520
Count: 20.4 Exp: 12.24833071484682 Hands: 10184 Win: 6329 PayOut: 126580 Lose: 10163 Tie: 754 BJk: 416 BJP: 8320
Count: 20.5 Exp: 12.01274074074074 Hands: 6750 Win: 4083 PayOut: 81660 Lose: 6654 Tie: 561 BJk: 304 BJP: 6080
Count: 20.6 Exp: 11.84873949579832 Hands: 6783 Win: 4067 PayOut: 81340 Lose: 6790 Tie: 539 BJk: 291 BJP: 5820
Count: 25.1 Exp: 15.488807775188002 Hands: 68217 Win: 41916 PayOut: 1047900 Lose: 66925 Tie: 5409 BJk: 3025 BJP: 75625
Count: 25.2 Exp: 15.549440879926673 Hands: 27275 Win: 16910 PayOut: 422750 Lose: 26764 Tie: 2162 BJk: 1125 BJP: 28125
Count: 25.3 Exp: 15.404536082474227 Hands: 16975 Win: 10394 PayOut: 259850 Lose: 16733 Tie: 1383 BJk: 735 BJP: 18375
Count: 25.4 Exp: 15.20350535540409 Hands: 10270 Win: 6199 PayOut: 154975 Lose: 10260 Tie: 814 BJk: 457 BJP: 11425
Count: 25.5 Exp: 15.167493434490808 Hands: 6854 Win: 4120 PayOut: 103000 Lose: 6767 Tie: 567 BJk: 309 BJP: 7725
Count: 25.6 Exp: 15.085714285714285 Hands: 6755 Win: 4038 PayOut: 100950 Lose: 6821 Tie: 503 BJk: 311 BJP: 7775
Overall Result: Exp: 0.9195550440431635 Hands: 61067707 Win: 28941532 PayOut: 88288116 Lose: 40226303 Tie: 5315019 BJk: 2762305 BJP: 8093305

Edit: Changing the ratios to 40% 20% 16% 12% 8% 4%, but keeping the same strategy (which might still be close but could be slightly wrong) gives a House Edge of 1%!
Last edited by: charliepatrick on Dec 2, 2021
RideTheEdge
RideTheEdge
Joined: Apr 30, 2020
  • Threads: 2
  • Posts: 111
December 20th, 2021 at 6:02:04 PM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

Quote: LC1

Hi,
Evolution has published their full strategy for the game, accessible via a link in the in-game help text.

[I've been trying to post the link here, but the forum interface keeps removing the bulk of the text when I paste it in, for some reason! In the game help, you can find it in the 'payouts' section - 'Open Strategy in New Window'.]

link to original post



BRILLIANTLY WELL SPOTTED
https://static.egcdn.com/frontend/fec/ring-test/optimalLightningBlackjackStrategy.html?gameType=lightningscalablebj&lang=en#openMenu

It's a little complex and each icon is a link to a busy page.
Something for our maths guys to get their teeth into
link to original post



Seems like that link doesn't work any more. Has anyone captured all the raw information in all those strategy tables, or even a copy of the pages?

Thanks so much for everyone who has done work on this game and has been willing to share.
RideTheEdge
RideTheEdge
Joined: Apr 30, 2020
  • Threads: 2
  • Posts: 111

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