250 free. Would you bother
Poll
 | 6 votes (85.71%) | ||
| No votes (0%) | |||
| | 2 votes (28.57%) | ||
| No votes (0%) | |||
| No votes (0%) | |||
| No votes (0%) | |||
| | 2 votes (28.57%) |
7 members have voted
Here's the deal. It runs for 5 consecutive days and is at a trusted online casino.
Quote: online casino. . . stake a minimum of £2,000 cash in Live Casino to receive £50 bonus to play in Live Casino.
The bonus will be awarded instantly after customer has staked £2,000 cash or more.
The maximum bonus that can be claimed daily is £50.
The bonus can be spent only in Live Casino.
...
Bonuses will be credited as a non-withdrawable bonus with twenty times (x20) wager requirements. Customers have 24 hours from the time they opted in to the daily promotion to complete the qualification criteria and 4 days from the time the bonus is added to their account to fulfil any wagering requirements before the bonus expires and the remaining bonus balance is forfeited.
Once you have claimed this Bonus, you will only be permitted to withdraw any winnings contained in your Bonus Balance once the Wagering Requirements have been met. ( or forfeit the bonus )"
I've run the bonus three times this week, so far and it doesn't have any nasty terms like reduced contribution to play-through. I simply played £10 per hand Blackjack* with a starting buy in of £300 and after 90 minutes or so had wagered £2000 and still had approximately my original £300 + the £50 bonus. 45 mins or so later, I'd wagered a total of another £1000 and the bonus became withdrawable. Each time, a roller coaster ride of bankroll.
As it happened, on each day, I survived with only a modest buy-in and ended up with a profit. In terms of hourly wage it didn't cost in, I guess, and I'd exposed myself to massive variance, but what the heck. Part of my reason for 'engaging' with this offer is that the 'engagement' seems to encourage them to keep making other good offers to me.
Here's my estimate of its daily value...
Expected outcome at £10 per hand flat betting based on 2 standard deviations (95% probability) ...
AvgBet = £10
OriginalSD = 10*1.15 = £11.50
EV(300 hands) = (300*10)*(-0.0072) = -£21.60
EV after bonus = £50.00 - £21.60 = £38.40
SD(300 hands) = Sqrt(300) * 11.50 = £199.19...
2SD = £398
Thus, with 95% certainty, 300 hands and about 3 hours, flat betting £10 at a .72% HE blackjack game... I can expect to gain £38.+/- £398
Oh... And there's £3 worth of comp points to be added for all that play making it £41+/- £398 for each of 5 days
So, bearing in mind that I find the game recreational and not a chore and that 'engaging' these offers keeps them flowing, how insane am I to risk so much to variance?
* I do confess that a few times I did 10, 20, 30 progressive which massively increased my variance
[edit]I had my maths wrong. 300 hands, Not 3000 so correcting calcs[/edit].
Is the '20 times wager' requirement
A. 20 times the 50 bonus or
B. 20 times the 2000 stake
*finding it good recreation would make it pretty irresistible to meQuote: OnceDear£41+/- £398 for each of 5 days
So, bearing in mind that I find the game recreational and not a chore and that 'engaging' these offers keeps them flowing, how insane am I to risk so much to variance?
*that it seems to generate more offers is a valid factor ... is this the same outfit that toyed with loss rebates? If so then stay engaged, you never know what might come of that!
*I can't see that as insane variance. How are you going to get less variance than BJ? waiting for +EV coin tossing?
*another factor is the trusted casino: I assume you are not subject to the same risks Americans take doing online gambling [though some of that is changing like in NJ].
*the only downside I see is just the matter of whether you should be gambling or not, and whether online gambling is a special risk from being 'too handy'; only you can answer that
Quote: SOOPOOI'm confused. I understand a 'minimum stake' means you have to send them the 2000 cash, not that you need to play it. You mention a 300 buy in, not a 2000 buy in.
Is the '20 times wager' requirement
A. 20 times the 50 bonus or
B. 20 times the 2000 stake
Hi, Thanks for the questions.... The terms are as generous as any I've ever seen... To confirm...
There was no minimum buy in. I could use whatever my balance was at the time and top it up if it got depleted (
blocked from withdrawing as that would void the offer ).
I selected £300 as my initial bankroll because that is what I had to hand and seemed enough to keep cycling through. The 'Minimum stake' referred to the sum off all wagers placed during the promo. So, I just kept placing £10 wagers a total of 200 times. Won some, lost some, and my balance bobbled about between about £180 and £500 during that time. After the conclusion of those 200 wagers, £50 was credited but not withdrawable until I'd wagered a total of another £1000
A) Wagering requirement was indeed 20 times the £50 bonus. I.e £1000 which I did as 100 x £10 wagers (mostly)
I find it quite restful, playing live dealer BJ with a pretty dealer and with the odd bit of chat.Quote: odiousgambit*finding it good recreation would make it pretty irresistible to me
Yes. Same gaff. They are throwing me some mighty fine offers lately. E.g. buy in 500 get 50 free with no strings except I have to play through the 50. Last weekend, they had wager 10,000 and get £300 free. Better terms than this. I caned that one.Quote:*that it seems to generate more offers is a valid factor ... is this the same outfit that toyed with loss rebates? If so then stay engaged, you never know what might come of that!
In my original calcs I got the 2SD value at about 1200 in error. The real value of 400 strikes me as modest and not insane. With the odd 10,20,30 progressive, I took more risk than I needed to ( reckless abandon )Quote:*I can't see that as insane variance.
Indeed.Quote:How are you going to get less variance than BJ?
There are no legal restrictions or tax implications here and this casino is a mainstream brand which I trust. Only one niggle with a failed withdrawal, which I accept was a transient issue.Quote:*another factor is the trusted casino: I assume you are not subject to the same risks Americans take
Valid point, as we have discussed privately. I avoided the JD for these sessions $:o) Also avoided investing extra into my bankroll from my pension lump sum.Quote:*the only downside I see is just the matter of whether you should be gambling or not, and whether online gambling is a special risk from being 'too handy'; only you can answer that
Exactly. Last week they had a wager 10,000 (10,300 after 1x playthrough) get 300 free offer. I exploited that one too at similar betting level.Quote: SOOPOOSo now I understand..... In simple terms you had to wager 3000 to get a free 50. Since it sounds like you periodically do this anyway, it sounds like a good deal for you. Mildly positive EV adds a small reason for you to play.
It is not a tough decision. Let the math guide you. If you are supposed to wager 1000 to clear the $50 bonus just figure out what the house edge is. If it is less than $50 then do it. If it is more then $50 then don't do it.
Thx GWAE,Quote: GWAEwhy are you making a mountain out of a mole hill?
It is not a tough decision. Let the math guide you. If you are supposed to wager 1000 to clear the $50 bonus just figure out what the house edge is. If it is less than $50 then do it. If it is more then $50 then don't do it.
No reason. Just curious about AP attitudes to such small offers. Mathematically it was a done deal, except that I wanted to use low individual wagers which would mean it took me a few hours (more recreation, less variance).
AP wise, I'm quite a small fish and this is what most proper AP's would surely consider to be peanuts. I guess, I sort of wondered if the big boy AP's would give this trivial offer a second glance.
Sometimes the offers I see are hugely +EV but need to accept insane variance to get the max from them. (E.g. 20% loss rebate offer) So, some offers I'd walk away from myself because I'm chicken.
Quote: OnceDearThx GWAE,
No reason. Just curious about AP attitudes to such small offers. Mathematically it was a done deal, except that I wanted to use low individual wagers which would mean it took me a few hours (more recreation, less variance).
AP wise, I'm quite a small fish and this is what most proper AP's would surely consider to be peanuts. I guess, I sort of wondered if the big boy AP's would give this trivial offer a second glance.
Sometimes the offers I see are hugely +EV but need to accept insane variance to get the max from them. (E.g. 20% loss rebate offer) So, some offers I'd walk away from myself because I'm chicken.
Obviously an ap that makes a living doing it wont do something that will net 1.10 an hour. As long as the hourly is what they desire then they will do it
The math is only slightly positive EV -because the casino can do math and they designed their offer that way. But, it is positive EV -so if you enjoy the gambling then do it. I would.
And since you believe that accepting a freeplay offer may have influence on whether you receive further offers, then a second time: YES.
Even for the 10000 playthrough promo, I only bought in with 500 and though it took several hours, my balance only fell below 200 briefly. Doing the 10000 promo, I did have to stop and wonder how it would feel if it went badly and whether I'd have the balls to keep playing on into a big loss. ( I would )Quote: heatmapid do the 10000, 3000, crap it wouldnt matter, but i need the JD for sure
Nooooo to the JD this time, though i was playing into the wee small hours. I made two stupid mouse click errors: Once standing on a hard 9 and once hitting on 8,8. Stupidly, I won both hands, though only £10 on each. Embarrassing, but lucky, lucky.
Tonight is my last time on the 3000 promo. I missed out on the first day it ran. Hoping they throw a big promo at me again this weekend. Please don't let it be a 20% loss rebate!
They just offered me a 10% loss rebate up to £20 with 20x playthrough. For that I have to install and use a mobile App.... I don't want to have a casino in my pocket 24/7 so I might not be taking them up on that. I Know that one is +EV, but I also know what addiction feels like.
Quote: OnceDearJust garnering opinions about one of my casinos latest offers.
Here's the deal. It runs for 5 consecutive days and is at a trusted online casino.Quote: online casino. . . stake a minimum of £2,000 cash in Live Casino to receive £50 bonus to play in Live Casino.
The bonus will be awarded instantly after customer has staked £2,000 cash or more.
The maximum bonus that can be claimed daily is £50.
The bonus can be spent only in Live Casino.
...
Bonuses will be credited as a non-withdrawable bonus with twenty times (x20) wager requirements. Customers have 24 hours from the time they opted in to the daily promotion to complete the qualification criteria and 4 days from the time the bonus is added to their account to fulfil any wagering requirements before the bonus expires and the remaining bonus balance is forfeited.
Once you have claimed this Bonus, you will only be permitted to withdraw any winnings contained in your Bonus Balance once the Wagering Requirements have been met. ( or forfeit the bonus )"
I've run the bonus three times this week, so far and it doesn't have any nasty terms like reduced contribution to play-through. I simply played £10 per hand Blackjack* with a starting buy in of £300 and after 90 minutes or so had wagered £2000 and still had approximately my original £300 + the £50 bonus. 45 mins or so later, I'd wagered a total of another £1000 and the bonus became withdrawable. Each time, a roller coaster ride of bankroll.
As it happened, on each day, I survived with only a modest buy-in and ended up with a profit. In terms of hourly wage it didn't cost in, I guess, and I'd exposed myself to massive variance, but what the heck. Part of my reason for 'engaging' with this offer is that the 'engagement' seems to encourage them to keep making other good offers to me.
Here's my estimate of its daily value...
Expected outcome at £10 per hand flat betting based on 2 standard deviations (95% probability) ...
AvgBet = £10
OriginalSD = 10*1.15 = £11.50
EV(300 hands) = (300*10)*(-0.0072) = -£21.60
EV after bonus = £50.00 - £21.60 = £38.40
SD(300 hands) = Sqrt(300) * 11.50 = £199.19...
2SD = £398
Thus, with 95% certainty, 300 hands and about 3 hours, flat betting £10 at a .72% HE blackjack game... I can expect to gain £38.+/- £398
Oh... And there's £3 worth of comp points to be added for all that play making it £41+/- £398 for each of 5 days
So, bearing in mind that I find the game recreational and not a chore and that 'engaging' these offers keeps them flowing, how insane am I to risk so much to variance?
* I do confess that a few times I did 10, 20, 30 progressive which massively increased my variance
[edit]I had my maths wrong. 300 hands, Not 3000 so correcting calcs[/edit].
"TRUSTED ONLINE CASINO"...…………sure!
Quote: standbymymanQuote: OnceDear
"TRUSTED ONLINE CASINO"...…………sure!
Trusted by me.
There are two main chains of bricks and mortar casinos here in the UK: Gentings and Grosvenor. The online casino I use is run by Grosvenor. I've been their customer about 4 or 5 years and their service has been impeccable. Their games ( or at least the ones I play ) have low house edge and my results to date are reflective of that edge. Some online gaffs have outrageous terms, shady practices and lax regulation. Grosvenor has good terms, good live chat and phone support and tight European regulation. They also offer me good loyalty bonuses and have let me cash out many thousands over my time with them.
Their doors are closed to US customers, but if they ever become available to you, I'd comfortably recommend them.Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
