Freeroll on Missed Shuffle Card
Thoughts? What is the actual advantage if you have this freeroll? What is correct basic strategy for the play/abort decision? What is the best way to keep other players from screwing it up (I have tried to make others at the table aware, but some are just stupid, and of course new players keep sitting down)? How far can I go without casino action (if I get two max bets of 1,000 out there, is there any chance the pit can change the freeroll policy ad-hoc, or will they alow it and then back off/bar me)?
Quote: FeanorI have been playing a casino with inexperienced dealers who occasionally deal out the shuffle card and then forget to shuffle. If a dealer begins to deal and then the shuffle card is pointed out, the situation is always resolved in the same way - each player is given the choice to play the hand or throw it back. I have discovered that if the card comes to me, I can increase the odds of the dealer missing it by pulling it back towards me on the table and sitting sort of casually with my forearm above it. But other players at the table often point out the card out and ruin the opportunity. Nevertheless, I have successfully gotten huge bets out there and freerolled a few times.
Thoughts? What is the actual advantage if you have this freeroll? What is correct basic strategy for the play/abort decision? What is the best way to keep other players from screwing it up (I have tried to make others at the table aware, but some are just stupid, and of course new players keep sitting down)? How far can I go without casino action (if I get two max bets of 1,000 out there, is there any chance the pit can change the freeroll policy ad-hoc, or will they alow it and then back off/bar me)?
If you are betting significantly less than 1000 a hand before the cut card, and then you do that, it shouldn't take a pit boss more than 1x before they say that it's "No hand". They are going to know you are using it to your advantage. The correct play/abort decision can be made by checking out the Wizard's Blackjack appendix on expected values of players hands vs. dealer upcards. Any positive number would be a "play", any negative a "abort"
1. You could get asked (told) not to play. The days are gone when a couple of 450-pound security goons would dribble you out the door like a basketball, but getting barred is still an unpleasant experience.
2. The housepolicy on exposed shuffle cards could be changed as a result of your actions, and that would hurt every single player (including you), every single time the shuffle card was inadvertently dealt--something that happens fairly often in your casino, as you say.
You are also crossing the line by deliberately concealing the shuffle card when it gets dealt to you. If a floorman saw you do this, and then take the freeroll, especially if you had a big bet out, you just might get the basketball treatment after all.
As for the advantage of your little ploy, you would only be using it about half the time (i.e., when your original hand was below average), and you only figure to get an average hand as a replacement. So your gain is not suffering the -EV from a bad hand. Since the worst situations (stiff vs. 10, etc.) are -50% EV (you lose 3 out of 4), then that is the best you can expect--half a bet. Most of the time, your gain will be much less (like being able to discard a hard 18 vs. a 9). And since you will only want to cancel your hand half the time anyway, I would hazard a guess that being able to cancel is worth about 0.1 bets/occurence.
