BJ 2-1 coupons (or 3-1 coupons)
and also in the book he seemed to play a lot of 3-1 BJ coupons too. where in the world would u get a decent supply of those? ive found a way to get a bunch of 2-1 entire shoe up to $25 BJ coupons. but my roll is only about $3500, isnt that way too low to bet the full $25, or with that edge, is it ok? maybe id be better off taking a little too much risk, than only betting $10-15 and losing a lot of EV?
This sounds good to me, I would bet $25 if you have 3500 to work with. How many can you get off in a day? I doubt they will let you sit and run more then a few off at the same table, if they do, god bless you, go for it. You wont get that kind of edge on blackjack often without doing some gray area stuff.Quote: sevencard2003how much is a BJ 2-1 coupon worth? i know if u can play one thru an entire 6-8 deck shoe--its over 100%. but how much over 100%? thats the important thing. this ebook i read a guy claims 1.9% but that sounds awfully high, im sure he included the value of him counting cards?
and also in the book he seemed to play a lot of 3-1 BJ coupons too. where in the world would u get a decent supply of those? ive found a way to get a bunch of 2-1 entire shoe up to $25 BJ coupons. but my roll is only about $3500, isnt that way too low to bet the full $25, or with that edge, is it ok? maybe id be better off taking a little too much risk, than only betting $10-15 and losing a lot of EV?
I have always ran bad on them dam things.
Quote: sevencard2003how much is a BJ 2-1 coupon worth? i know if u can play one thru an entire 6-8 deck shoe--its over 100%. but how much over 100%? thats the important thing. this ebook i read a guy claims 1.9% but that sounds awfully high, im sure he included the value of him counting cards?
and also in the book he seemed to play a lot of 3-1 BJ coupons too. where in the world would u get a decent supply of those? ive found a way to get a bunch of 2-1 entire shoe up to $25 BJ coupons. but my roll is only about $3500, isnt that way too low to bet the full $25, or with that edge, is it ok? maybe id be better off taking a little too much risk, than only betting $10-15 and losing a lot of EV?
You get a blackjack about once every 21 hands so a 2-1 coupon is worth 1/2 of a bet every 21 hands = 0.5 / 21 = 2.38%. If you are in a decent game you edge is going to be about 1.75% to 1.8%. 1.9% or higher is certainly possible with good rules.
With this kind of an edge, I think that flat-betting $25 with a $3500 bankroll is fine. You are betting less than 1% of your bankroll at a time -- you are nowhere near over-betting. The problem is that even though your edge is decent percentage-wise, it's still a small amount of money. If you are at a full table getting 60 hands an hour, you are making somewhere in the $25 to $30 per hour range. I guess this is not bad for a $3500 bankroll but it's not a huge amount of money either.
remember i cant risk losing the entire $3500, id have nothing to work with if i did. its not replaceable. its my $1-2 NL poker bankroll also, and what i use to cover my rent each week. i dont even want to drop $1000 of it, id like to know the chances of that. over 15% maybe?
Quote: sevencard2003and one more question--how bad would the running count need to be to wong out (go down to $5 til the coupons time is up). minus 12? minus 24? or ???
The true count is what's important, not the running count. Once the TC is -4 you don't have an edge any more. I'm not sure that I'd worry about it; TCs of -4 are rare. I'd just flat-bet $25. Counting and making a few simple strategy variations will raise your edge even more.
Quote:remember i cant risk losing the entire $3500, id have nothing to work with if i did. its not replaceable. its my $1-2 NL poker bankroll also, and what i use to cover my rent each week. i dont even want to drop $1000 of it, id like to know the chances of that. over 15% maybe?
I don't know what your poker game is like, but I'd bet that your edge is lower and your variance is higher than this. How can you play 1-2NL with such a small bankroll? Honestly, I would play this blackjack game with a $1500 bankroll.
