Shuffle Master machines used in Caribbean Stud

I was playing Caribbean Stud poker with the cards being dealt through a shuffle master. The player to my right decided to leave the game, the next hand was dealt and the player to my left received a Royal Flush. It would appear that if the player to my right stayed in for one more hand I would have received the Royal Flush. Would this have been the case? Is each hand dealt via a shuffle master random up until the cards are spit out?

Quote: HockeyTalk

I was playing Caribbean Stud poker with the cards being dealt through a shuffle master. The player to my right decided to leave the game, the next hand was dealt and the player to my left received a Royal Flush. It would appear that if the player to my right stayed in for one more hand I would have received the Royal Flush. Would this have been the case? Is each hand dealt via a shuffle master random up until the cards are spit out?

The impression I get with these machines is that it's going to have a Random Number Generator cycling constantly through these machines, and what determines the shuffle is the exact moment the dealer activates the shuffler. If guy to the right doesn't leave the table, the dealer likely shuffles the deck at a slightly different time, and likely no royal flush comes out at all. If someone knows these machines better than me, please correct me.

Quote: HockeyTalk

I was playing Caribbean Stud poker with the cards being dealt through a shuffle master. The player to my right decided to leave the game, the next hand was dealt and the player to my left received a Royal Flush. It would appear that if the player to my right stayed in for one more hand I would have received the Royal Flush. Would this have been the case? Is each hand dealt via a shuffle master random up until the cards are spit out?

I believe it is the case -- I think it stops shuffling once the green light comes on and the cards are "ready".

This is the same fallacy that exists on 3CP where people believe that their positions at the game make a difference to the hands they get.

This is simply not the case. The shuffle is random up until the point where the green light is activated, the dealer places the old deck into the back of the shuffler and the first hand of the new deck is spat out.

Your odds of receiving the royal would have been exactly the same as the time the guy to your right was at the game, no difference.

Quote: Tomspur

This is the same fallacy that exists on 3CP where people believe that their positions at the game make a difference to the hands they get.

This is simply not the case. The shuffle is random up until the point where the green light is activated, the dealer places the old deck into the back of the shuffler and the first hand of the new deck is spat out.

Your odds of receiving the royal would have been exactly the same as the time the guy to your right was at the game, no difference.

Right, but, would any of those elements have changed in this case?

I'm not talking about lucky vs unlucky seats. I'm talking about, the guy to your right doesn't put out a bet, so you get the cards that he would have gotten had he put a bet out, and the guy to your left gets the cards that you would have gotten.

Of course the probabilities don't change, but that's not what the question is asking.

OP is right, you would have have been dealt those cards and gotten the royal flush.

The reason why people are saying you would not have gotten the RF is because there would likely be a time difference on when the dealer hit the green button.

It's the same in video poker with the timing thing. You hit the button and are dealt a royal, but if you hit the button a split second later or earlier, the machine would generate a different random number and you would have been dealt different cards. (Well, technically you could be dealt the same cards in both scenarios, but the RNG would have changed which would almost certainly been dealt different cards.)

Quote: AxiomOfChoice

Right, but, would any of those elements have changed in this case?

I'm not talking about lucky vs unlucky seats. I'm talking about, the guy to your right doesn't put out a bet, so you get the cards that he would have gotten had he put a bet out, and the guy to your left gets the cards that you would have gotten.

Of course the probabilities don't change, but that's not what the question is asking.

Ok, let's take it from a different perspective, step by step.

The previous hand we had 3 players, you in the middle, one to your left and one to your right........(I think that correlates well to the OP's question)

The hand is played out and the player to your right goes bust. At this point, the dealer had already placed the deck about to be dealt in the shuffler and it is ready to be dealt. You (middle spot) and the guy to your left both ante up. That second deck has been ready to deal for a while now. In that shuffled deck, there is a pack of cards that has a royal in it. That pack is 2nd from the front. You get the first hand and the player to your right gets the 2nd hand, Royal, obviously.

If the player to your right had been sitting there, it would stand to reason that you would have received the Royal if the table composition had remained exactly the same?
Perhaps the OP has reason to feel agrieved but I guess it could easily have gone the other way too? If the royal was in the 1st pack and the player stayed, he would have also taken it away from the OP?

I don't think any foul play can be placed at the feet of the casino or the shuffler (which I'm sure the OP isn't doing). Perhaps it can only be put down to extreme bad luck???? (and I don't mean the Variance kind either?)

So the secret is that the hand in question was already set and ready to deal even before the guy decided to leave the game. If he hadn't left then the OP would have been dealt the Royal.......

Does this seem accurate?

Quote: Tomspur

Ok, let's take it from a different perspective, step by step.

The previous hand we had 3 players, you in the middle, one to your left and one to your right........(I think that correlates well to the OP's question)

The hand is played out and the player to your right goes bust. At this point, the dealer had already placed the deck about to be dealt in the shuffler and it is ready to be dealt. You (middle spot) and the guy to your left both ante up. That second deck has been ready to deal for a while now. In that shuffled deck, there is a pack of cards that has a royal in it. That pack is 2nd from the front. You get the first hand and the player to your right gets the 2nd hand, Royal, obviously.

If the player to your right had been sitting there, it would stand to reason that you would have received the Royal if the table composition had remained exactly the same?
Perhaps the OP has reason to feel agrieved but I guess it could easily have gone the other way too? If the royal was in the 1st pack and the player stayed, he would have also taken it away from the OP?

I don't think any foul play can be placed at the feet of the casino or the shuffler (which I'm sure the OP isn't doing). Perhaps it can only be put down to extreme bad luck???? (and I don't mean the Variance kind either?)

So the secret is that the hand in question was already set and ready to deal even before the guy decided to leave the game. If he hadn't left then the OP would have been dealt the Royal.......

Does this seem accurate?

Yes, this is what I'm saying.

Of course the probabilities are the same in either case -- the player leaving would be just as likely to give him a royal as to cost him one. In this particular case, though, it happened to cost him one.

......

Quote: Tomspur

Ok, let's take it from a different perspective, step by step.

The previous hand we had 3 players, you in the middle, one to your left and one to your right........(I think that correlates well to the OP's question)

The hand is played out and the player to your right goes bust. At this point, the dealer had already placed the deck about to be dealt in the shuffler and it is ready to be dealt. You (middle spot) and the guy to your left both ante up. That second deck has been ready to deal for a while now. In that shuffled deck, there is a pack of cards that has a royal in it. That pack is 2nd from the front. You get the first hand and the player to your right gets the 2nd hand, Royal, obviously.

If the player to your right had been sitting there, it would stand to reason that you would have received the Royal if the table composition had remained exactly the same?
Perhaps the OP has reason to feel agrieved but I guess it could easily have gone the other way too? If the royal was in the 1st pack and the player stayed, he would have also taken it away from the OP?

I don't think any foul play can be placed at the feet of the casino or the shuffler (which I'm sure the OP isn't doing). Perhaps it can only be put down to extreme bad luck???? (and I don't mean the Variance kind either?)

So the secret is that the hand in question was already set and ready to deal even before the guy decided to leave the game. If he hadn't left then the OP would have been dealt the Royal.......

Does this seem accurate?

Tomspur described the situation well. Thanks for all the comments. I understand of course the probabilities don't change. I also don't blame anyone for the results. It was just the luck of the draw.

I think you've already received the correct answer, but just to chime in, yes, the OP would have gotten the royal. The cards aren't on endless shuffle in that 2 deck machine; they do their thing and stand ready for the button push. I've sat by the machine often, and can hear and see what it's doing very well. My condolences to the lost jackpot hand. You don't say whether the dealer qualified? When I was playing a lot of CSP, my best hands were consistently nullified by non-qualification, though I got a couple of bonus pays without the main bet pay (never the royal). That disappointment was what drove me off the game after a while. Just curious, especially since there's no way of knowing what the next hand out of the box was (which would have been the dealer hand had the RH guy stayed in).

This is actually similar to the situation where you are going to buy a lottery ticket (or one of those scratch things), and someone just before you in the queue buys one and wins the jackpot.
Or (apparently worse) they ask for one, then realise they don't have the cash so renounce, and you get the ticket. And the person behind you wins the jackpot.

It is easy to feel like you got extremely unlucky. But after all, the chance of these "real world" events happening is as much a part of random draw as the hand or ticket received, isn't it? We play random games. We get random results.

(I had one similar situation. I was sitting last position, one player quit the table, cards are dealt and the dealer gets a straight flush. Damm!)

Quote: Tomspur

Ok, let's take it from a different perspective, step by step.

The previous hand we had 3 players, you in the middle, one to your left and one to your right........(I think that correlates well to the OP's question)

The hand is played out and the player to your right goes bust. At this point, the dealer had already placed the deck about to be dealt in the shuffler and it is ready to be dealt. You (middle spot) and the guy to your left both ante up. That second deck has been ready to deal for a while now. In that shuffled deck, there is a pack of cards that has a royal in it. That pack is 2nd from the front. You get the first hand and the player to your right gets the 2nd hand, Royal, obviously.

If the player to your right had been sitting there, it would stand to reason that you would have received the Royal if the table composition had remained exactly the same?
Perhaps the OP has reason to feel agrieved but I guess it could easily have gone the other way too? If the royal was in the 1st pack and the player stayed, he would have also taken it away from the OP?

I don't think any foul play can be placed at the feet of the casino or the shuffler (which I'm sure the OP isn't doing). Perhaps it can only be put down to extreme bad luck???? (and I don't mean the Variance kind either?)

So the secret is that the hand in question was already set and ready to deal even before the guy decided to leave the game. If he hadn't left then the OP would have been dealt the Royal.......

Does this seem accurate?

This is correct and the exact reason I almost always sit in seat 1 when playing games that are single deck games dealt to the money (as compared to Pai Gow dealt to the seat). No matter who comes and goes, my cards are always the same. It doesn't change my odds of winning, but doesn't make me crazy about who would have got what cards later on.


ZCore13

the dealer did qualify with a pair of 7's, but even if the dealer didn't qualify the big pay out is the bonus jackpot.