pacomartin
pacomartin
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February 5th, 2010 at 10:56:27 AM permalink
Demographic quiz

Name a poor country with one of the highest fertility rates and growth rates in the Western Hemisphere. It's northern neighbor has a total fertility rate (TFR) just above replacement levels (see below for definition). The northern neighbor has a median age which is 7 years older and has a longer expected lifespan. This poor country is storming it's northern border in an effort to look for better economic opportunities outside of the country. The border has become rife with gang violence, lawlessness and desperation as people are kidnapped in remote country and robbed, abused, and murdered. The law is almost helpless to control the illegal immigration. Just over the border a huge percentage of the women are actively engaged in prostitution. This country is not Mexico.




Replacement level is TFR = 2 + a little more to cover people who die before having the required number of children. Replacement level is 2.05 to 2.40 depending on the level of violence and disease in the country. Usually a stable highly developed country needs TFR=2.1 to replace it's population without growing or shrinking, and without the need for immigration.
DJTeddyBear
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February 5th, 2010 at 11:22:50 AM permalink
Ordinarily, I wouldn't classify the USA as a "poor" country, but, how do you define "poor"?


The other stuff seems to fit. And given the state of the economy, and the huge national debt, ya might just be talkin' about the good ol' USA....
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cardshark
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February 5th, 2010 at 11:32:41 AM permalink
Look, I don't want to play the guessing game. Can you just tell us which country it is?

Edit: I just reread my post and it sounds rude...sorry. To make up for it, I agree with the wizard's guess of Guatemala... Definitely fits the description.
Wizard
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Wizard
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February 5th, 2010 at 11:37:59 AM permalink
My guess is Guatemala.
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AZDuffman
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February 5th, 2010 at 11:43:12 AM permalink
Columbia is the poor country.
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mew3782
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February 6th, 2010 at 6:57:09 AM permalink
I think the Wiz is right on this one.
pacomartin
pacomartin
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February 6th, 2010 at 8:55:13 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

My guess is Guatemala.



Excellent guess, Wizard.

Mexico brought their fertility rate down from 4.6 children per woman 30 years ago to 2.3 children today (slightly above the USA 2.06). Mexico is still 10 years younger than USA from the momentum of all those decades of high birth rates. The SW, NW, and SE USA have been growing faster than Mexico for twenty years, just the Midwest and North East remain slower.

Guatemala's explosive population growth and all the wealth concentrated in a few families went from 6.6 million in 1980 to 13.5m today, and is projected at 23.0m by 2050. The southern border of Mexico is much worse than the northern border as thousands of Guatemalans try to cross illegally. Most are trying to get to the USA, but many never make it and attempt to make lives for themselves among the highly indigenous population of southern Mexico.

In 1994 Zapatista guerrillas crossed the border and took over a small city in highlands of southern Mexico and called for revolution. Some Guatemalan teenagers had grown up on a steady diet of revolutionary radio with little or no television. They were surprised when Miami journalists told them that the 20 million people in Mexico city were watching soccer, and their revolution was a sidebar on the TV news.
Wizard
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February 15th, 2010 at 7:46:25 PM permalink
Thanks! I thought I was right, but didn't know the details you provided. Doesn't Mexico get other illegal immigrants from other countries in Central America, using Guatemala as a stepping stone? In particular, El Salvador? On another topic, how has embracing Internet gambling helped or hurt Costa Rica?
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
pacomartin
pacomartin
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February 15th, 2010 at 11:41:20 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Thanks! I thought I was right, but didn't know the details you provided. Doesn't Mexico get other illegal immigrants from other countries in Central America, using Guatemala as a stepping stone? In particular, El Salvador? On another topic, how has embracing Internet gambling helped or hurt Costa Rica?



Most of the Guatemalan illegal immigrants are trying to get to the USA. If they can make it to Tapachula (which is only 22 miles by road from the northern Chiapas border they can often take a bus right to Nogales. But the only problem is they often don't make it even that far. By jungle it might be 40-50 miles which is tough to do without proper gear, and with thousands of Mara Salvatrucha (or youth gangs) patrolling the jungle and looking for prey. The Mara are now a potent organized crime gang throughout Mexico. Many of them end up living in Mexico by default, because they get robbed at the Guatemalan - Mexican border, or they never make it across the Mexico - USA border,and resettle in Southern Mexico which has a larger indigenous population.

Guatemala is even more difficult to cross, so Nicaraguans and Hondurans have a difficult time crossing two countries. My understanding is that there are so many Ecuadorians living in the USA that they are better off trying to organize family visits, and then playing around with the law.

We had a very large cap on Ecuadorians so that they could flee the effects of the civil war. Their standard of living is greatly improved by the money sent home to family members.

Costa Rican's and Panamanians have fairy high standards of living, with a lot of tourists. They have much less incentive to immigrate. From what I have read Costa Rica is making huge amounts of money on the internet gaming. I don't have any first hand knowledge about the business.
Wizard
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February 16th, 2010 at 4:47:50 AM permalink
Thanks!

On another topic, what do you think of my collection of Mexican license plate?

It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.

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