A poor country with a rich northern neighbor in the Western Hemisphere

Demographic quiz

Name a poor country with one of the highest fertility rates and growth rates in the Western Hemisphere. It's northern neighbor has a total fertility rate (TFR) just above replacement levels (see below for definition). The northern neighbor has a median age which is 7 years older and has a longer expected lifespan. This poor country is storming it's northern border in an effort to look for better economic opportunities outside of the country. The border has become rife with gang violence, lawlessness and desperation as people are kidnapped in remote country and robbed, abused, and murdered. The law is almost helpless to control the illegal immigration. Just over the border a huge percentage of the women are actively engaged in prostitution. This country is not Mexico.




Replacement level is TFR = 2 + a little more to cover people who die before having the required number of children. Replacement level is 2.05 to 2.40 depending on the level of violence and disease in the country. Usually a stable highly developed country needs TFR=2.1 to replace it's population without growing or shrinking, and without the need for immigration.

Ordinarily, I wouldn't classify the USA as a "poor" country, but, how do you define "poor"?


The other stuff seems to fit. And given the state of the economy, and the huge national debt, ya might just be talkin' about the good ol' USA....

Look, I don't want to play the guessing game. Can you just tell us which country it is?

Edit: I just reread my post and it sounds rude...sorry. To make up for it, I agree with the wizard's guess of Guatemala... Definitely fits the description.

My guess is Guatemala.

Columbia is the poor country.

I think the Wiz is right on this one.

Quote: Wizard

My guess is Guatemala.

Excellent guess, Wizard.

Mexico brought their fertility rate down from 4.6 children per woman 30 years ago to 2.3 children today (slightly above the USA 2.06). Mexico is still 10 years younger than USA from the momentum of all those decades of high birth rates. The SW, NW, and SE USA have been growing faster than Mexico for twenty years, just the Midwest and North East remain slower.

Guatemala's explosive population growth and all the wealth concentrated in a few families went from 6.6 million in 1980 to 13.5m today, and is projected at 23.0m by 2050. The southern border of Mexico is much worse than the northern border as thousands of Guatemalans try to cross illegally. Most are trying to get to the USA, but many never make it and attempt to make lives for themselves among the highly indigenous population of southern Mexico.

In 1994 Zapatista guerrillas crossed the border and took over a small city in highlands of southern Mexico and called for revolution. Some Guatemalan teenagers had grown up on a steady diet of revolutionary radio with little or no television. They were surprised when Miami journalists told them that the 20 million people in Mexico city were watching soccer, and their revolution was a sidebar on the TV news.

Thanks! I thought I was right, but didn't know the details you provided. Doesn't Mexico get other illegal immigrants from other countries in Central America, using Guatemala as a stepping stone? In particular, El Salvador? On another topic, how has embracing Internet gambling helped or hurt Costa Rica?

Quote: Wizard

Thanks! I thought I was right, but didn't know the details you provided. Doesn't Mexico get other illegal immigrants from other countries in Central America, using Guatemala as a stepping stone? In particular, El Salvador? On another topic, how has embracing Internet gambling helped or hurt Costa Rica?

Most of the Guatemalan illegal immigrants are trying to get to the USA. If they can make it to Tapachula (which is only 22 miles by road from the northern Chiapas border they can often take a bus right to Nogales. But the only problem is they often don't make it even that far. By jungle it might be 40-50 miles which is tough to do without proper gear, and with thousands of Mara Salvatrucha (or youth gangs) patrolling the jungle and looking for prey. The Mara are now a potent organized crime gang throughout Mexico. Many of them end up living in Mexico by default, because they get robbed at the Guatemalan - Mexican border, or they never make it across the Mexico - USA border,and resettle in Southern Mexico which has a larger indigenous population.

Guatemala is even more difficult to cross, so Nicaraguans and Hondurans have a difficult time crossing two countries. My understanding is that there are so many Ecuadorians living in the USA that they are better off trying to organize family visits, and then playing around with the law.

We had a very large cap on Ecuadorians so that they could flee the effects of the civil war. Their standard of living is greatly improved by the money sent home to family members.

Costa Rican's and Panamanians have fairy high standards of living, with a lot of tourists. They have much less incentive to immigrate. From what I have read Costa Rica is making huge amounts of money on the internet gaming. I don't have any first hand knowledge about the business.

Thanks!

On another topic, what do you think of my collection of Mexican license plate?

Aguascalientes
Baja California Norte
Chihuahua
Coahuila
Durango
Mexico
Oaxaca
Quintana Roo
San Louis Potosi
Sonora
Tabasco
Veracruz
Yucatan
Zacatecas
====
nice collection

Those are all motorcycle plates, right? Some are quite old. Those with numbers at the bottom, indicate the year or years the plate was valid for. We used to have to switch license plates every two years for some reason. You kept the same number but got a new design, meaning new colors.

For a stretch in the 80s plates coincided with some NFL team colors. There was green and white (Eagles), blue and yellow (Rams), black and yellow (Steelers) and finally white and blue (Colts).

Yes, all motorcycle plates, at least as far as I know. I'm trying to get a Mexican motorcycle license plate from every state in Mexico, but as you can see, I've got a long way to go. Whenever possible, I try to get them from the seventies, because I like the coloring and numbering of that time. I did not know that about the NFL colors, very interesting. Not to doubt you, but I'm going to ask some other collectors about it.

Quote: Wizard

Yes, all motorcycle plates, at least as far as I know. I'm trying to get a Mexican motorcycle license plate from every state in Mexico, but as you can see, I've got a long way to go. Whenever possible, I try to get them from the seventies, because I like the coloring and numbering of that time. I did not know that about the NFL colors, very interesting. Not to doubt you, but I'm going to ask some other collectors about it.

Motorcycle plates are squarer. Car plates are more clearly rectangular. plus car plates, at elast since the 70s onward, all had three numbers and three letters. That's changed now in some states. In Mexico City, or rather in the Federal district, they're all still three and three. I'll let you know if I find a way to obtain some.

The coincidence with NFL team colors was just a coincidence. At the time my friends and I identified them as such. It helped I'm a Steelers fan and one of my friends liked the Rams.

Oh, if you know what colors were current when, you can tell the year some movies were shot in :) I recall a very bad movie with Omar Shariff about emerald thieves that takes place in South America but was shot in mexico. You can tell by the license plates on cars.

Nareed

How often does the situation on the Chiapas-Guatemalan border make the papers in Mexico City? Is it ever front page news?

Quote: pacomartin

Nareed

How often does the situation on the Chiapas-Guatemalan border make the papers in Mexico City? Is it ever front page news?

Not much. The drug trafficking gangs in the west and north get a lot more press time.

BTW "Rich country to the North"? Mexico?