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RobSinger
RobSinger
Joined: Oct 6, 2010
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March 28th, 2011 at 6:42:10 PM permalink
Quote: MathExtremist

It would also be evidence from "someone on the outside". Singer is a gaming industry patron, just like any other Vegas tourist with a healthy comp balance -- he's a frequent player, not a gaming engineer or anyone with insider knowledge of the field. He also appears to have a faulty understanding of statistics based on his comments. Just go onto any online gaming forum and read all the rantings from new online casino players who will swear up and down that blackjack or roulette or slots are "rigged" -- they even have the player logs to "prove" it. Yet time after time, (with a few notable exceptions), such logs are shown to be statistically well within normal. Online, such logs are easy to get and analyze. Singer doesn't even have those, yet there he is with the exact same complaint. A basic statistics class would clear up his misunderstandings, but admitting he's wrong won't do much for his book sales.

Singer's suggestion idea that the Wizard is somehow out of his league on the topic of VP is just asinine and, I might add, reasonably insulting considering both the source and target. Several of the members of this forum, Wizard included, have worked for or with casino game vendors and know exactly what they're talking about. Still more have worked for casino operators (including you, as I've read in the past). Without fail, every single one of the actual industry professionals here has disputed Singer's claims. That's not something to be dismissed lightly, yet there he is, doing exactly that. I even offered to do a live debunk of one of his crackpot theories -- the one that VP hands aren't independently and randomly dealt but instead the whole machine operates within a payback percentage "safety net" -- but right about then he conveniently dropped out of the forum for a while. The offer still stands...



When I hit a nerve, I hit a nerve. And seeing that you are one of the few who has not yet blocked out the village idiot, you again left yourself open as an easy mark.

I have never said vp machines are "rigged" and for some reason you can't help yourself from saying that even if you don't mean it. As far as logs, I gave you an opportunity to show up and see them. You declined. Why? Because you likely wouldn't be able to live with yourself knowing full well that you'd have to contradict all that pent up self-proclaimed intellect that never wants you to admit you've been mistaken.

I expected you'd come on and try to comfort the Wizard over my truthful comment, but you've turned it into a personal attack. You and anyone else who claim to have worked in the industry obviously never were interested in the investigative side of the story. All you wanted to see was 1+1 add up to 2 and you were happy. Nothing else need be looked at. And if you are now willing to enter into a live debate without, as I've read, anyone paying for your trip and if you'd be prepared to make a healthy 5-figure bet that my play strategy does indeed work as I said it does, then you're on. And none of this "but gee Rob, that's too much money for me" because you can get any number of your wealthy math-types who also believe they're never wrong to put in with you.
RobSinger
RobSinger
Joined: Oct 6, 2010
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March 28th, 2011 at 6:48:29 PM permalink
Quote: MathExtremist

1) No you haven't. You just said you hooked up the equipment and you have results, from which you've drawn your own unverifiable conclusions. If you really wanted to present your findings in a valid, reviewable manner, you'd just post them publicly and let the interested public take a look. Why haven't you done that?

2) It is physically impossible to play "billions of hands" over "several months" on a VP machine. Consider that at 1 hand per second, which is several times faster than even the fastest human can play, a player on a machine full time 24x7 can play 31.5 *million* hands in a year. It would take over 30 years of non-stop play to play a billion hands at that rate. If you're going to make up numbers out of whole cloth, you should at least make them remotely plausible.



It's statements like this that have always made me wonder if you really do have a math degree. I'm also sensing confusion over how TE could possibly be involved in such an event. Please show up for the debate. PLEASE.

No one "played" the machine for several months. It was set to simulate hands controlled by the machine's software, and the entire sequence was recorded and can be printed. If you really want to see those and the summarizations/conclusions posted on the Internet, then feel free to do so after I find out how many pages it is in all.
thecesspit
thecesspit
Joined: Apr 19, 2010
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March 28th, 2011 at 6:51:21 PM permalink
Quote: RobSinger

I'm not sure where you read what you're claiming but I'll be happy to set your record straight so you don't make the same mistake again.



I'm claiming that there is little or no evidence for your claim that Nevada Video Poker machines operate in any other manner than the published regulations allow. If you don't know what I'm claiming, how do you know I made a mistake? :)

Quote:

First of all, this is not "extraordinary" by any stretch.



I absolutely claim it is. You are making a claim that many people inside and out of the industry do not believe, and have provided statements to the contrary.

Quote:

It's something that's available to the involved person who is motivated to obtain and understand the information, and if you're not a vp professional then you would most certainly not be interested enough to go after it.



But, your claim is verifiable by pointing those interested to the documents you claim exist, even if you do not have them at all. Moreover, I don't understand why, an author who has often exposed inside information in his columns and books would not produce this information, after all he is retired from playing VP, and therefore has little to lose.

Quote:

Certainly, it makes for good rhetoric by anonymous posters on the Internet, where just about anything can be labeled "incredible" and just about anything said by someone else can be labeled an assertion until some sort of proof is presented.



An assertion is statement that the maker says is true. So you are asserting that VP is not random as per the regulations. I am asking for proof of that assertion. It's not a rhetoric device at all. It's merely stating, at present and after some investigation in several places, and talking to you privately, I have not seen any thing to make me believe your statement

Quote:

Next, I have indeed offered to have anyone who has the time and ability to follow my many pages of test reports obtained from a Rohde & Schwartz test equipment suite for several billions of hands over several months, to do so, and I have offered to be present at a WoV debate to make it so.



I also asked previously as to what set up you used and how you generated the tests, but I must have misundersood your reply that the videos of the tests where no longer available. Maybe my request was not clear.

If you have an outline of your test method, I would love to read it, to see if I can actually follow the method and results you obtained. Hardware and software testing is something I do have a a more than passing interest in. It may be that the equipment you used and the data collected is not something I can work with.

Quote:

And if you remember, ME gave a set of excuses while someone else similarly sweating gave some others. And as I said, these results alone are not absolute proof.



As I recall, but it may be just after you left, ME proposed a very good test of your statement that VP machines will life the overall payback to a certain percentage, and also a good test on the card flip over effect.

I consider the latter effect may have some validity for various reasons, but this is an ongoing piece of work on my side.

Quote:

You have to play the game, you have to be ultimately aware of what's going on, and you have to have the proper analytical mind to be able to process all the information logically.



I'd dispute that I don't fall into that category.

Quote:

I have not yet seen that level of dedication from anyone here to date, and unless someone wants to set up that debate where a dozen geniuses from here can go up against me because that's what it'll take to be on even ground, then you can continue to make irresponsible accusations about The Undeniable Truth if you like. And I do believe people like that approach better than the alternative.



Considering the time and effort I have spent reading most of your posts on VPtruth, analyzing a lot of your hand plays and methods, I think I am in a good position to make statements to the effect I have about VP machine randomness.

I do not think I have made a single irresponsible accusation about the "Undeniable Truth" not least as the UT contains many statements, some of which are true, some of which I believe to be unproven. As the author himself says, it's up to each player to come to their own conclusions based on the evidence and their own logical analysis.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
weaselman
weaselman
Joined: Jul 11, 2010
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March 28th, 2011 at 7:01:37 PM permalink
Quote: mkl654321

Taking a swipe and then saying "let's move on" is a kind of childish tactic.


Well making an unsubstantiated claim, and then declaring that you are "disinclined" to provide support for it isn't exactly adult either, is it? :)
"When two people always agree one of them is unnecessary"
MathExtremist
MathExtremist
Joined: Aug 31, 2010
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March 28th, 2011 at 7:35:04 PM permalink
Quote: RobSinger

I have never said vp machines are "rigged".


You said they don't play randomly. You also said they operate within a percentage-payback-range safety-net -- that means the probability of getting a hand is not independent of prior hands. You specifically said that the probability of a single drawn card is not what it should be based on the initial deal. All of those are deceptive manipulations, and that's exactly what "rigged" means. Yet you've never produced a shred of verifiable evidence that the machines are rigged.
Quote:

As far as logs, I gave you an opportunity to show up and see them. You declined.


Quite the contrary, I've invited you multiple times to post your data on the Internet and subject it to peer-review. You declined.
Quote:

I expected you'd come on and try to comfort the Wizard over my truthful comment, but you've turned it into a personal attack. You and anyone else who claim to have worked in the industry obviously never were interested in the investigative side of the story. All you wanted to see was 1+1 add up to 2 and you were happy. Nothing else need be looked at.


Suggesting the Wizard doesn't know how VP works is, as I said, a pretty ridiculous statement. Moreover, you haven't provided anything to investigate. At all. Just your repeated, unverifiable assertions that VP is rigged in numerous different ways, and indeed that there is a secret government conspiracy to cover that up, but you can't or won't demonstrate any of that to be true. So you resort to bloviation and wild, virtual gesticulations. And ad hominem attacks on the intelligence of your critics.
Quote:

No one "played" the machine for several months. It was set to simulate hands controlled by the machine's software, and the entire sequence was recorded and can be printed. If you really want to see those and the summarizations/conclusions posted on the Internet, then feel free to do so after I find out how many pages it is in all.


So post the entire recorded sequence of results, as well as the test-harness setup and configuration information so others can duplicate your results.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
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March 28th, 2011 at 7:39:01 PM permalink
I consider your remark that I'm not in your league when it comes to video poker, or whatever you said, a personal attack. I'm not even going to bother listing my credentials to write about the game.

A barring is on the line, but I'd like to give you a chance to explain the remark first.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
mkl654321
mkl654321
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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March 28th, 2011 at 7:54:26 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I consider your remark that I'm not in your league when it comes to video poker, or whatever you said, a personal attack. I'm not even going to bother listing my credentials to write about the game.

A barring is on the line, but I'd like to give you a chance to explain the remark first.



Well, strictly speaking, you're NOT in his league; you're in the majors, he's in Class D slow-pitch softball.
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw
mkl654321
mkl654321
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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March 28th, 2011 at 7:56:55 PM permalink
Quote: RobSinger

It's statements like this that have always made me wonder if you really do have a math degree. I'm also sensing confusion over how TE could possibly be involved in such an event. Please show up for the debate. PLEASE.

No one "played" the machine for several months. It was set to simulate hands controlled by the machine's software, and the entire sequence was recorded and can be printed. If you really want to see those and the summarizations/conclusions posted on the Internet, then feel free to do so after I find out how many pages it is in all.



"Several billion hands", printed out in the smallest type visible to the unaided human eye, would consume hundreds of millions of pages. So either you're being disingenuous, or you have an appalling ignorance of mathematics.
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw
mkl654321
mkl654321
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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March 28th, 2011 at 7:59:11 PM permalink
Quote: weaselman

Well making an unsubstantiated claim, and then declaring that you are "disinclined" to provide support for it isn't exactly adult either, is it? :)



And what exactly are you referring to? I made such a remark about OBAMA recently, but I'm not Barack Obama--you do fathom the distinction, I hope? Or are you referring to the Wiz, and saying he's not "adult" for declining to explain why he feels the way he does about Fox News?
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw
RobSinger
RobSinger
Joined: Oct 6, 2010
  • Threads: 5
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March 28th, 2011 at 10:38:13 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I consider your remark that I'm not in your league when it comes to video poker, or whatever you said, a personal attack. I'm not even going to bother listing my credentials to write about the game.

A barring is on the line, but I'd like to give you a chance to explain the remark first.



Sure I'll explain it. You have good general knowledge of video poker the game, video poker machines, video poker regulations, and the video poker industry. But the fact that you're pals with the LVA/HP "my way right or wrong" crowd and you all are in the income-from-the-gaming-business because of obvious shortfalls in your games, means minds being open to further expansion of vp knowledge is totally out of the question. You are an excellent analyst and are very good in breaking down the numbers, but everything you've done on your site I had to do myself as a minimum in the mid 90's in order to develope my play strategy. There's a lot of people in LV who sell, analyze & re-analyze optimal strategy. They basically take a textbook and write and re-write and re-write the same information over & over & over again. I actually did the analyzing without the sell--and then took it several steps beyond so that you and others like you have no choice but to continue to duck debating me or betting me on my ability to win with it. Always the safe way out. Best to save those reputations.

You also have not been as involved as I have been in completely dissecting every angle of the game over the years. You don't play it much, and you told me you can't beat it--whereas I have played for a living and seldom lost. And while you may have the ability to understand my play strategy and special plays that deviate from optimal play, I do not believe you would have been able to fully develop the strategy with the complexities I incorporated, or, just as importantly, I do not believe you have the necessary aptitude to be a video poker player who is able to consistently win.

No, you are definitely not in my league, and over the years I've seen or heard of no one who is so don't feel badly. People have always had the opportunity to prove they are, to debate me, or bet me, and to a person, they've all generated some of the most pathetic excuses they could think of. Then, you'll find them running to the forums looking for support & comfort while they still have their tails tucked firmly between their legs. One-on-one or one-on-ten: the gurus and "math" people (and I say that lightly because I probably have more math knowledge, math application, and math education that most or all of my critics) have never been able to stand up to me---except in their safe virtual world of the anonymous Internet.

Last words: If you're not happy with the undeniable truth here, ban me. Like that's a big deal. If you want to delete this post because you feel uneasy about others reading it, delete it. You read it. And if anyone here gets a backbone and wants to debate me in person and bet me on my strategy and/or review my machine test results even though no one here comes close to understanding what an R&S test suite consists of or what its function is, let me know. Just be sure to plug the escape holes on the back end.

I will not be back. And don't be surprised to see this published or podcast somewhere.
RS--out. Y'all enjoy the professionalism of MKL!

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