Who wins in 2012

Since this is a gambling forum, what would you make the odds on Obama winning re-election? I would say he has a 75% chance. Despite his abject failures on virtually all fronts, he will get nearly 100% of the African-American vote, the great majority of the federally dependent vote (Social security, unemployed, welfare), as well as the large anti-republican/conservative vote. I hope i am wrong....

As of today, he's clearly taking a lesson from Clinton and moving to the middle (the right, even) on taxes. I'd put his chances pretty high.

I voted 50%. There is about equal parts Obama love and Obama hate.

Did you notice, folks seem to be pretty polarized over this guy? Go figure.

My choice was 60%.

I voted <45%. IMHO:

1. There's a clear population move to red states as indicated by the reapportionment guesses. Texas + Florida is +6 EVs, California + New York is -3.

2. There's a clear red shift in the midwest. Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Iowa governor races were won by Republicans. That's 75 EVs before reapportionment, I think something like 72 afterwards.

3. Traditionally red states that bought Obama's hype in 2008 are not going to buy it again. Virginia, North Carolina, Florida will go red. That's 55 EVs before reapportionment, maybe 57 afterwards.

Colorado and Nevada are wild cards, but that's only 15 or so EVs.

So, keeping those blue, adding 10 to the red for TX, FL, CA, adding 57 for VA, NC, FL, and adding half of 72 for OH, PA, WI, MI, and IA to 2008 results (keeping everything else the same) gives 173 + 10 + 57 + 36 = 276 (270 needed to win). Add to that reapportionment, the Republican majority in state houses and governorships, and Obama's (so far) inability to move to the center (I don't buy the tax cut thing, if the Dems wanted the tax cuts to expire, there's nothing Republicans could do), I don't think his chances are looking very good.

Of course, two years is an eternity in politics, and the mainstream media still wields a lot of influence, so we'll see ...

The question is whether Obama will move towards the Clinton or the Carter models.

Of course he could come up with something entirely new. History doesn't repeat itself exactly.

First of all, incumbents are almost always heavy favorites. Second, Obama's going to benefit from things having gotten somewhat better by election time (the public has the time horizon/attention span of a gnat). Third, the Republicans have no one except various fundamentalist religious wingnuts and Sarah Palin to possibly challenge Obama in 2012. (Can you imagine Sarah Palin as Commander in Chief of the armed forces? The horror! The horror!)

I make Obama 90% to win. Amend that to 99% if Palin wins the nomination.

He'll get the black vote and that's all he'll get. He's destroyed the fabric of this country for years to come and we as voters will turn it all around and put it back on track to posperity for those of us who WANT to be prosperous. We've had enough of his ghetto-politics, where Obama puts on a front of taking from those of us who are successful to give to all his "brothers" and other minorities who he motivates to just keep sitting around doing nothing, while the entitlements continue to roll in free of charge.

You saw what happened in the correction-election in Nov., and how he just caved in to Republicans to save face on the tax cuts. It's just the beginning of the end for the biggest liar and most openly racist president we've ever had in the White House.

Quote: mkl654321

First of all, incumbents are almost always heavy favorites. Second, Obama's going to benefit from things having gotten somewhat better by election time (the public has the time horizon/attention span of a gnat). Third, the Republicans have no one except various fundamentalist religious wingnuts and Sarah Palin to possibly challenge Obama in 2012. (Can you imagine Sarah Palin as Commander in Chief of the armed forces? The horror! The horror!)

I make Obama 90% to win. Amend that to 99% if Palin wins the nomination.

I think that this way of thinking betrays the assumption that "Republican = fundamentalist religious wingnuts." A similar way of thinking from the right might be, "Democrat = America-hating, tax-and-spend, election-stealing socialists." Both are equally wrong.

What we do know is, a "moderate" Republican, said to be exactly what was needed in 2008, lost big. We also know that, in 2010, conservative Republicans, and Democrats who ran on conservative platforms, won big. If the underlying assumption is, "Republican = fundamentalist religious wingnut," then I can see why there's frustration and incredulity on the left.

That makes for a HUGE disconnect and calls for some pretty hefty mental (but clearly not intellectual) gymnastics to explain away the conservative victories and moderate losses ... that is, IF they don't disregard the assumption "Republican = fundamentalist religious wingnut" for something that, say, reflects reality.

Obama gave the far-left a voice, and he will always be associated with that voice, and that voice will not be silenced now that it's had some influence, and if he moderates (see tax cut extension deal), he will be excoriated and may not even survive the nomination process (see also Carter v. Anderson in 1980). There's no constituency left for him: the far left is abandoning him, the 2008 true believers have gone back to the Republicans, and the reapportionment and Republican governorships in swing states all work against him. It just doesn't add up.

(Wow, a real analysis, as opposed to just spouting, "the Democrats have no one except various America-hating, tax-and-spend, election-stealing socialists so the Republicans have a 90% chance of winning, 99% if Obama is re-nominated" like other posters might.)

Quote: ItsCalledSoccer

What we do know is, a "moderate" Republican, said to be exactly what was needed in 2008, lost big. We also know that, in 2010, conservative Republicans, and Democrats who ran on conservative platforms, won big. If the underlying assumption is, "Republican = fundamentalist religious wingnut," then I can see why there's frustration and incredulity on the left.

That moderate Republican (I assume you mean McCain) won't likely be in the mix in 2012. Keep in mind that the Republican strategy from 2008 forward has been to embrace extreme polarization. Mitch McConnell said it unabashedly as soon as Congress reconvened. To that end, the more extreme the candidate, the better.

I don't view the 2010 mini-backlash as that significant. First of all, the party in power almost always loses seats in midterm elections. Second, with the economy in the state it is, there was bound to be some kind of reaction. Of course, the reaction was utterly stupid---the American people have a very truncated event horizon. The fact of the matter is that Obama isn't to blame for conditions failing to improve, just as GWB wasn't to blame for the recession, but Obama rode into office claiming just that, so he deserved what he got this time around. (Economic policies take about five years to take full effect. There also is the simple truth, not realized by those who think that everything is a socialist-style command economy, that many economic conditions simply HAPPEN, without anyone's conscious influence or volition.)

Conservatism will continue to ebb and flow as the political situation changes, but its inherent ("fundamental") contradiction, that it supposedly embraces "limited" government while at the same time advocating incredibly intrusive government intervention into people's private lives, will keep it from appealing to enough people to make it the dominant ideology. Obama is a pretty bitter pill for many to swallow, but so is the idea of the Federal Decency Police bashing down your door in the middle of the night and dragging you away because you didn't go to church, or your wife because she had an abortion in 1993.

Quote: ItsCalledSoccer

(Wow, a real analysis, as opposed to just spouting,

Pshaw, it was the economic news in 2008 (the crash), and it was the economic news in 2010 (no recovery). That's mostly why elections swung back and forth.

People yelling about principles and this or that are a minority on both sides.

I think I have superpowers. JL and mkl agree. By the way, I know you can bet on elections. Is there a 'futures' line available somewhere?

Betfair or other UK book might have a futures on it. As may some of the spreads.

Quote: SOOPOO

I think I have superpowers. JL and mkl agree. By the way, I know you can bet on elections. Is there a 'futures' line available somewhere?

We do? It looks like he's saying that only black people will vote for Obama (22%?), while I'm saying he's almost certain to win.

Of course, the sources of our opinions are different. JL WANTS Obama to lose. I don't really care if he wins. I'm just saying what I think is likely--he won't be up against anyone with a prayer of winning. He would probably lose if there was any kind of moderate/centrist Republican available who didn't sound like a moron.

I understand that in Britain, betting on the outcome of US elections is big business. Ladbroke's has a website with current odds.

I wouldn't go as far as to say "big business". I'd say that the UK bookies will run a book on most things if they think they can get money in on it.

Quote: thecesspit

I wouldn't go as far as to say "big business". I'd say that the UK bookies will run a book on most things if they think they can get money in on it.

I guess it depends on what you mean by "big", but I did read an article in the Times (online) in 2008 saying that British bookies were disappointed in the action on the US presidential election, since Obama was something like an 8-1 favorite.

Quote: mkl654321

We do? It looks like he's saying that only black people will vote for Obama (22%?), while I'm saying he's almost certain to win.

Of course, the sources of our opinions are different. JL WANTS Obama to lose. I don't really care if he wins. I'm just saying what I think is likely--he won't be up against anyone with a prayer of winning. He would probably lose if there was any kind of moderate/centrist Republican available who didn't sound like a moron.

I understand that in Britain, betting on the outcome of US elections is big business. Ladbroke's has a website with current odds.

I'll adjust my prediction: Obama will get the black vote (not because of ability or performance, obviously, but because of a Reverend Wright-led hate of whites) he'll get the atheist vote (but only those who fear family/religion/marriage because they choose not to understand or study any of it) and he'll get the gay vote (which includes almost every atheist I just mentioned, and because the strong fabric of the American family is a threat to their diminished existence). The rest of the minorities are up for grabs at this point, as are the usually confused just-out-of-college crowd since they just spent 4 years+ of listening to the rants of Ward Churchill-type nutjobs and Jimmie Carter-type traitors.

Who do you guess will be the Republican candidate ? Huckabee ? Jindel (sp) ?
How 'bout Mitt Romney ?

Quote: JohnnyQ

Who do you guess will be the Republican candidate ? Huckabee ? Jindel (sp) ?
How 'bout Mitt Romney ?

My money's on Sarah right now because she's the one the liberal wussies pretend the Dems can defeat, and they only say that over and over and over again because they're so afraid of her, her looks, and her values.

Romney proved Socialistic healthcare does not work in Mass. because they are going broke trying to keep up with its policies.

Jindel is a pretender and a hick.

Huckabee is another John McCain when it comes down to brass tacks. He'd shy away from any important confrontation in favor of "the high road".

The only other one I'd like to see run besides Sarah is Newt Gingrich. He would absolutely destroy anyone & everyone in any debate with an endless supply of truth and the facts, he's got the scratch to put it together, and what I like most about him is how he ridicules Nancy Pelosi.

I wouldn't rule out old New Gin-Grinch. But I don't think Palin will be taken seriously as a candidate by the Republican party, although they did put "W" on the ballot,
so who knows ! The best candidates certainly don't always make it through the process.

Quote: SOOPOO

Since this is a gambling forum, what would you make the odds on Obama winning re-election? I would say he has a 75% chance. Despite his abject failures on virtually all fronts, he will get nearly 100% of the African-American vote, the great majority of the federally dependent vote (Social security, unemployed, welfare), as well as the large anti-republican/conservative vote. I hope i am wrong....

For about a year I have actually been predicting to friends and anyone else who I get into a conversation with that Obama pulls an LBJ/Harry Truman and doesn't even seek the nomination. I base this on the fact that Obama is very risk-adverse and does not attempt things unless he has a huge advantage. The things he does attempt he then seems to win by a very narrow margin. Secondly, Obama cannot seem to function unless everybody in sight is fawning over his every move. (Remember the "I thought I'd get applause for that" remark at last SOTU address?) With approval in the low 40s about 25% of his support comes from the black community who will never abandon him just as it never abandoned OJ, Marion Barry, etc. This means just 1 in 3 non-blacks support the guy. Not good.

On another note, it always looks to me as if he just doesn't like the "work" part of the job. He seems suprised that people don't like his ideas and acts like we are stupid for not seeing his (to him) wisdom. He picks fights with Fox News Channel, and keeps losing them. He is a bit like someone who buys their first house then belatedly realizes mowing the lawn and other maintainence cuts into weekend golf time.

Hmmm...

It's completely unclear who will win the Republican nomination for President in 2012. I don't think it will be Palin as she has turned more towards celebrity and away from politics. That said, she might win by default. Who is going to step up for the nomination? McCain managed to swing the vote away from him after Palin's orange was peeled. He's not in the picture. The folks who ran for the nomination in 2008 -- none of them are appealing... it will likely be a senator or governor who will capture the nomination, but at this point, I have no idea who, but I haven't been paying any attention.

Don't underestimate Obama though. He's still an eloquent speaker. He's let down the people absolutely. The country did not recover. The left and right are still as divided as ever. The president has 18 months left until voters really start to make up their minds.

Quote: boymimbo

Hmmm...

It's completely unclear who will win the Republican nomination for President in 2012. I don't think it will be Palin as she has turned more towards celebrity and away from politics. That said, she might win by default. Who is going to step up for the nomination? McCain managed to swing the vote away from him after Palin's orange was peeled. He's not in the picture. The folks who ran for the nomination in 2008 -- none of them are appealing... it will likely be a senator or governor who will capture the nomination, but at this point, I have no idea who, but I haven't been paying any attention.

Don't underestimate Obama though. He's still an eloquent speaker. He's let down the people absolutely. The country did not recover. The left and right are still as divided as ever. The president has 18 months left until voters really start to make up their minds.

McCain lost because he never wanted to win. Palin was the only reason it was even as close as it was. It cracks me up how people say "Palin sunk McCain" yet the period between when she was chosed and when he "suspended" his campaign during the financial crisis was the only time he was ahead of BHO. He was about the worst campaigner in history going against Obama who I will give credit as to being one of the best campaigners (though totally incompotent as a leader.)

In an unrelated note, the Kalahari Waterpark offered a free room on Election night, if...

All you had to do was pick the winner, Obama or McCain. We enjoyed our free stay there !
Talk about a sure bet.....

Who wins in 2012?

The Democrats and Republicans.

Who loses?

America.