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odiousgambit
odiousgambit
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
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May 10th, 2021 at 3:54:11 AM permalink
The things that cause a crash can be as mysterious as the things that cause 'irrational exuberance'

however, I've noticed that there is one situation that will always produce a crash, and that is the conviction being held by enough people that you need to sell to prevent further losses. Not just that something is going to go down sharply in value, in these markets that has become normal, but that there is no hope that it will recover, at least for a long period.

There are moments when there is no doubt about it. The experts tell you not to sell in order to try market-timing to buy again, but when there is no doubt you are preventing further losses, what can the experts or anybody say?

This will happen to digital currencies as it does happen in all other markets.
The Dice, the cards, they not only have no sense of justice but are actually endowed with a sense of cruel irony. This devolves from the 'nature of random'. Ironically so, don't you see. 
darkoz
darkoz
Joined: Dec 22, 2009
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May 10th, 2021 at 4:40:45 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

The things that cause a crash can be as mysterious as the things that cause 'irrational exuberance'

however, I've noticed that there is one situation that will always produce a crash, and that is the conviction being held by enough people that you need to sell to prevent further losses. Not just that something is going to go down sharply in value, in these markets that has become normal, but that there is no hope that it will recover, at least for a long period.

There are moments when there is no doubt about it. The experts tell you not to sell in order to try market-timing to buy again, but when there is no doubt you are preventing further losses, what can the experts or anybody say?

This will happen to digital currencies as it does happen in all other markets.



It's not a stock

If every single owner of Bitcoin simultaneously sold all their coins, and no one purchased them, then every single owner of Bitcoin would still own them.

Likewise, if every single owner of Bitcoin sold all their coins then every single owned coin would now be owned by someone else so how would the value have Benn caused to crash.

There is no Bitcoin manufacturing company that's taking back Bitcoins in some type of return policy

When people stop using Bitcoin it will lose its value but that will be when something better comes along and it will have to be tied into Bitcoin in some way.

Think about it. If you had bitcoin to make purchases and something better came along but you couldn't trade in your Bitcoin for it, why would you make the switch?

And retailers who accept Bitcoin won't stop taking it if people are still using it.

It's here to stay.

I'm not saying it's value won't go down but it's not going away any time soon.
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
OnceDear
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OnceDear
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
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May 10th, 2021 at 5:15:41 AM permalink
Quote: darkoz

It's not a stock


Your IRS and the UK HMRC tax authorities treat it more like a stock than as a currency.
We are SUPPOSED to treat every BTC transaction as a Capital Gains taxable event. If we try to do that properly, it's a nightmare that we don't have just using fiat money.
As currency's go, BTC are pretty rubbish: While it's going up in relative value, we are discouraged from spending it (Why spend your fast rising BTC on a Tesla when you can unload some US$?). When BTC price is dropping, vendors won't be happy to accept it for physical goods. Currencies rather enjoy stability of value.

As a generally fast rising asset, it's pretty good as a store of value investment.

Funny that what makes it a good store of value is what ruins it as a currency, and vice versa... a bit like gold, Oil, Soya beans, or Pokemon cards....

Unlike gold, oil. soya beans, or pokemon cards, your BTC are not much USE on a desert island, or in a post apocalypse, post internet age!

FWIW. I hold roughly 1BTC and I occasionally USE it to trade with online casinos.
Beware. The earth is NOT flat. Hit and run is not a winning strategy: Pressing into trends IS not a winning strategy: Progressives are not a winning strategy: Don't Buy It! .Don't even take it for free.
Wizard
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Wizard 
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
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May 10th, 2021 at 5:53:44 AM permalink
Quote: darkoz

The disconnect I see on this forum is not understanding some crypto delivers a service.



What service to they deliver, other than a transfer of imaginary money from one person to another, which all of them do?
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
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May 10th, 2021 at 5:59:55 AM permalink
Quote: darkoz

It's not a stock

but it has a market
The Dice, the cards, they not only have no sense of justice but are actually endowed with a sense of cruel irony. This devolves from the 'nature of random'. Ironically so, don't you see. 
mcallister3200
mcallister3200
Joined: Dec 29, 2013
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May 10th, 2021 at 6:09:38 AM permalink
Quote: darkoz



If every single owner of Bitcoin simultaneously sold all their coins, and no one purchased them,.



onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
Joined: Jan 26, 2012
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May 10th, 2021 at 8:11:00 AM permalink
Darkoz, people understand the expressed fundamentals for cryptos, but some just don't believe in it. It's risky, you need to know where you buy in nobody will quit holding, or your wallet wont get stolen or the currency site doesn't get hacked. Don't go too deep, don't even have close to all your money by any means. If there is a stock crash, cryptos will fall with them to meet margin requirements on stock plays.
I am a robot.
billryan
billryan
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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May 10th, 2021 at 9:14:05 AM permalink
Anyone who puts much more than 10% of their money into such schemes is a fool. It can't be said much more clearer than that.
BTW- that's true for almost any investment.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
darkoz
darkoz
Joined: Dec 22, 2009
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May 10th, 2021 at 9:38:31 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

Anyone who puts much more than 10% of their money into such schemes is a fool. It can't be said much more clearer than that.
BTW- that's true for almost any investment.



Schemes?

Sad!
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
darkoz
darkoz
Joined: Dec 22, 2009
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May 10th, 2021 at 10:35:15 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

What service to they deliver, other than a transfer of imaginary money from one person to another, which all of them do?



It's a massive explanation.

I will probably start a thread where I go over each aspect.

Been thinking all morning where to start. Understanding crypto leads to a complicated web of terminology and processes
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee

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