Covid vaccine math?
I propose productive years of life saved as a baseline. Therefore with a life expectancy of 81 years in the UK anyone older than this should not receive the initial dose? Tossing morality aside, using a scaling remaining life expectancy and a death rate by age group (comorbidities aside) how would we save the most expected years of life?
EX: a 100 year old is 19 years beyond expectation- the vaccine with a 95% chance of preventing infection with a death rate in this age group of 80% will preserve how many years of productivity vs. a 30 year old?
Using only productive years saved (ignoring long term effects, life choices etc.)which age group and mortality rate gives the greatest return on our investment?
Quote: LVJackalThe vaccine is rolling out in the UK now, soon the world, while the math is much more complicated - who should get it?
I propose productive years of life saved as a baseline. Therefore with a life expectancy of 81 years in the UK anyone older than this should not receive the initial dose? Tossing morality aside, using a scaling remaining life expectancy and a death rate by age group (comorbidities aside) how would we save the most expected years of life?
EX: a 100 year old is 19 years beyond expectation- the vaccine with a 95% chance of preventing infection with a death rate in this age group of 80% will preserve how many years of productivity vs. a 30 year old?
Using only productive years saved (ignoring long term effects, life choices etc.)which age group and mortality rate gives the greatest return on our investment?
Your decision tree is rotten! Protecting one hospital nurse, or one nursing home aide, may only statistically save her a little bit because her (assume young) chance of dying was small, but the many people she would have passed it on to during her ‘contagious but not sick’ phase is not considered in your formula.
You also might want to lose the ‘productive’ word.... The rest of my life will be very productive for ME, but not much so for society. Unless you can define productive it is impossible to use in your calculations.
A few other flaws in your hypothesis... but it is a great conversation starter.
Quote: LVJackalThe vaccine is rolling out in the UK now, soon the world, while the math is much more complicated - who should get it?
You can have my dose.
Quote: LVJackalI propose productive years of life saved as a baseline. Therefore with a life expectancy of 81 years in the UK anyone older than this should not receive the initial dose? Tossing morality aside, using a scaling remaining life expectancy and a death rate by age group (comorbidities aside) how would we save the most expected years of life?
If "productive years of life saved" is the baseline, then you have to take into account that, technically, giving the vaccine to someone who would have survived without it saves zero years. Pardon me for sounding like an episode of M*A*S*H, but if you are going to do it this way, you have to take the probability of a particular person that does not get the vaccine dying into account.
Quote: LVJackalThe vaccine is rolling out in the UK now, soon the world, while the math is much more complicated - who should get it?
I propose productive years of life saved as a baseline. Therefore with a life expectancy of 81 years in the UK anyone older than this should not receive the initial dose? Tossing morality aside, using a scaling remaining life expectancy and a death rate by age group (comorbidities aside) how would we save the most expected years of life?
EX: a 100 year old is 19 years beyond expectation- the vaccine with a 95% chance of preventing infection with a death rate in this age group of 80% will preserve how many years of productivity vs. a 30 year old?
Using only productive years saved (ignoring long term effects, life choices etc.)which age group and mortality rate gives the greatest return on our investment?
I could be wrong, but I think you might have some incorrect assumptions on how vaccines work.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity
Most vaccines are less about protecting the individual receiving it, and more about contributing to the overall immunity of the population.
Or would it be cheaper to kill off society and let it all burn to the ground?
Quote: ChumpChangeNobody has told us how much each vaccinated person would cost. $100? $1,000? $10,000?
Or would it be cheaper to kill off society and let it all burn to the ground?
How much are you willing to pay for your vaccine then?
Quote: ChumpChange80% of Americans don't have even $500 for emergencies now.
Yet most of them will still have cable TV
Millions of phone subscriptions in China lapsed in the first few months of this year.
Quote: ChumpChangeI don't know about that. There's plenty of over-the-air channels in the big cities, just not cable news. A lot of people are cutting the cord and getting some kind of streaming TV deal and pay the cable company for the internet only.
Millions of phone subscriptions in China lapsed in the first few months of this year.
73% of homes still have cable. And lots of those who do not have $500 are driving cars above their means.
If you have the money to completely cover it and choose to finance it that’s completely different and just how you choose to spend your money. If you don’t have 1k in the bank and are buying a 1200 phone on payments or buying a 40-60k vehicle without having 6+ months living expenses put away you’re just being irresponsible and asking for problems at some point.
I’m pretty sure productive years and life expectancy are two very different things.Quote: LVJackalI propose productive years of life saved as a baseline. Therefore with a life expectancy of 81 years...
Is it the episode where, facing that kind of ‘who should live?’ kind of thing, Col. Blake says something like, “I don’t know Pierce. I have a lot of trouble with these kinds of decisions.”Quote: ThatDonGuy... Pardon me for sounding like an episode of M*A*S*H, ...
Based on lack of certain symptoms at the moment of injection / and presence of certain symptoms after and today, it would seem that I got the real thing, but who knows - maybe placebo effect or just a coincidence that I woke up with a headache and experienced the other minor side effects. I will say that if I got the real thing the symptoms are quite mild, for this particular vaccine.
I believe there is a way for me to find out if I received the real thing, by having my own antibody blood test done in a month, besides the one that the trial will conduct, but, I'm not sure if I will go that route, because I think if I have the antibody test all that independent lab will do is call me up and say I am Coronavirus positive, right?
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2021/03/11/europe/astrazeneca-vaccine-denmark-suspension-intl/index.html
Quote: kewljMy doctor called me this morning and wants me to come in for the vaccine this week. It really is not my turn yet according to the Nevada guidelines. I am in my 30's with "conditions". I figured I was still a month away from my turn. Doctor says because I have had issues with my covid experience, a heart related complication last summer and lingering longterm issues with fatigue, that he wants me to get it now rather than later. I am not sure how I feel about this, although I agreed to come in on Wednesday. Feels like I am cheating and jumping the line.
I might be wrong, but I thought it was perfectly within the guidelines for a doctor to recommend vaccinations for higher risk individuals. In other words, it’s not jumping the line.
Quote: darkozSeveral European countries have now halted the Astra Zenica vaccine due to blood clots.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2021/03/11/europe/astrazeneca-vaccine-denmark-suspension-intl/index.html
IOW, those of us in no hurry to get it are looking better.
Quote: rxwineI might be wrong, but I thought it was perfectly within the guidelines for a doctor to recommend vaccinations for higher risk individuals.
I haven't heard nor read that, but suspect it may be the case. And it sort of makes sense to me. It also makes sense that this wouldn't be too publicized. Otherwise, everyone is going to go running to their doctors making the case for themselves.
As for myself, I am feeling a little guilty, but not enough that I am not going to take advantage of the opportunity.
Quote: kewljMy doctor called me this morning and wants me to come in for the vaccine this week. It really is not my turn yet according to the Nevada guidelines. I am in my 30's with "conditions". I figured I was still a month away from my turn. Doctor says because I have had issues with my covid experience, a heart related complication last summer and lingering longterm issues with fatigue, that he wants me to get it now rather than later. I am not sure how I feel about this, although I agreed to come in on Wednesday. Feels like I am cheating and jumping the line.
Look at it this way the next in line after you could be a 65-year-old Baccarat player.
Quote: AZDuffmanIOW, those of us in no hurry to get it are looking better.
Why, did you move to Europe where it was approved?.
Quote: rxwineWhy, did you move to Europe where it was approved?.
Yeah, AZ has kinda walked into that one.
If he is distrustful of vaccines because he doesn't trust the FDA, he can't point to problems by a drug the FDA has, perhaps wisely, refused to approve
My family has now had all 3. Older son got J and J, said he was sick as a dog for a day. Younger son got first Pfizer this morning. I had Moderna. Wife and 1 daughter Pfizer first.
Quote: SOOPOO
My family has now had all 3. Older son got J and J, said he was sick as a dog for a day. Younger son got first Pfizer this morning. I had Moderna. Wife and 1 daughter Pfizer first.
How old are your kids? I am assuming adults. Is everyone eligible in your area now?
Quote: kewljHow old are your kids? I am assuming adults. Is everyone eligible in your area now?
Older son is in Florida. He qualified by being a U of F employee. He just drove to a large site in Jacksonville without an appointment, walked in and got the J n J shot. He could have taken Pfizer if he wanted it.
Younger son had minor comorbidity. In Buffalo.
The comorbidity list is flat out stupid. Friend qualified because she had ‘cancer’. Her cancer was a tiny melanoma that was removed in a doctor’s office years ago, but according to NYS requirements she was eligible.
Edit. 31 and 28 are their ages.
https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/italy-launches-manslaughter-investigation-teacher-dies-hours-after-getting-astrazeneca-jab
Maybe I should get one of those medi-alert buttons that dials 911 before I get the vaccine. Ain't nobody gonna show up here to check on a dead body until it stinks like on TV.
!!!!Quote: ChumpChange15 months from now all the babies born will be COVID vaccine mutants, if they're born at all.
Quote: darkozYeah, AZ has kinda walked into that one.
If he is distrustful of vaccines because he doesn't trust the FDA, he can't point to problems by a drug the FDA has, perhaps wisely, refused to approve
I do not think you get it. I do not trust any of them anywhere no matter who approves them. The cited problems are but one example. Don't act like the FDA is any better than whoever approves in Europe.
Really looking forward to this.
Quote: AZDuffmanI do not think you get it. I do not trust any of them anywhere no matter who approves them. The cited problems are but one example. Don't act like the FDA is any better than whoever approves in Europe.
So you trust your health to the virus you call "china virus" vs. American industry vaccine.
I see. Say no more.
Quote: rxwineSo you trust your health to the virus you call "china virus" vs. American industry vaccine.
I see. Say no more.
Like I have said before, put together too fast for my tastes. Shoot up with it if you like, you will have nothing to worry about.
99.5%+ survival rate.
Quote: AZDuffmanLike I have said before, put together too fast for my tastes. Shoot up with it if you like, you will have nothing to worry about.
99.5%+ survival rate.
So you believe Warp Speed was a dangerous failure? Oh my!
Quote: rxwineSo you believe Warp Speed was a dangerous failure? Oh my!
I think it is fine for the sheep who think they will die if some guy in Youngstown goes to the grocery store without a mask. Just leave me out.
Quote: AZDuffmanI think it is fine for the sheep who think they will die if some guy in Youngstown goes to the grocery store without a mask. Just leave me out.
Not getting the vaccine is fine for the grass that the sheep eat for lunch.
Quote: billryanI got an appointment for my first shot, but they couldn't tell me if it will be a single shot or if a second will be needed. As explained to me, they will not know until the vaccines arrive that day if it is a one or two shot variety. My appointment is at 145 Thursday but they said to arrive early as they expect a long line of cars and to bring a book as I will be kept up to an hour after the shot is administered.
Really looking forward to this.
I got my first shot today and had a reservation. I waited in line about 1 hour 30 minutes and got the Moderna vaccine. Next appointment is in 4 weeks. No symptoms yet.
'
I got my first shot a week or so back, I felt a little strange, but that's about it.Quote: DRichI got my first shot today and had a reservation. I waited in line about 1 hour 30 minutes and got the Moderna vaccine. Next appointment is in 4 weeks. No symptoms yet.
'
Quote: AxelWolfI got my first shot a week or so back, I felt a little strange, but that's about it.
How did YOU get your vaccine weeks ago? You weren't of age at the time, even with medical conditions (which I am not asking about). Must be a who you know kind of thing. lol Whatever, I hope everyone gets vaccinated and is safe. :)
I got my vaccine yesterday, before my age group, but at doctors suggestion and arrangement. I am concerned about all the different stories hitting the news everyday about how vaccine might not be as effective against new variants. Parts of Europe are currently having big spikes with these new variants even as they are getting vaccinated and the U.S. has generally followed Europe a month or so later during this pandemic.
BUT, there comes a time, that you have to get on with life. You protect yourself as best you can, wear masks in public, maybe stay away from larger crowds and go on with life. That's were I am now. My situation of being higher risk has disrupted, not only my life, but the life of those immediately around me, in my case, my brother, who I share a residence with. He shuts down when I shutdown despite that I beg him not to.
So I am going to give it a couple weeks, as you are supposed to after vaccination (you really are supposed to wait 2 weeks after second vaccination, but I am not doing that) and then going about my life, taking precautions as best I can. My 2021 starts April 1.
Someone gave me their spot.Quote: kewljHow did YOU get your vaccine weeks ago? You weren't of age at the time, even with medical conditions (which I am not asking about). Must be a who you know kind of thing. lol Whatever, I hope everyone gets vaccinated and is safe. :)
I got my vaccine yesterday, before my age group, but at doctors suggestion and arrangement. I am concerned about all the different stories hitting the news everyday about how vaccine might not be as effective against new variants. Parts of Europe are currently having big spikes with these new variants even as they are getting vaccinated and the U.S. has generally followed Europe a month or so later during this pandemic.
BUT, there comes a time, that you have to get on with life. You protect yourself as best you can, wear masks in public, maybe stay away from larger crowds and go on with life. That's were I am now. My situation of being higher risk has disrupted, not only my life, but the life of those immediately around me, in my case, my brother, who I share a residence with. He shuts down when I shutdown despite that I beg him not to.
So I am going to give it a couple weeks, as you are supposed to after vaccination (you really are supposed to wait 2 weeks after second vaccination, but I am not doing that) and then going about my life, taking precautions as best I can. My 2021 starts April 1.
Quote: kewljHow did YOU get your vaccine weeks ago? You weren't of age at the time, even with medical conditions (which I am not asking about). Must be a who you know kind of thing. lol Whatever, I hope everyone gets vaccinated and is safe. :)
I got my vaccine yesterday, before my age group, but at doctors suggestion and arrangement. I am concerned about all the different stories hitting the news everyday about how vaccine might not be as effective against new variants. Parts of Europe are currently having big spikes with these new variants even as they are getting vaccinated and the U.S. has generally followed Europe a month or so later during this pandemic.
BUT, there comes a time, that you have to get on with life. You protect yourself as best you can, wear masks in public, maybe stay away from larger crowds and go on with life. That's were I am now. My situation of being higher risk has disrupted, not only my life, but the life of those immediately around me, in my case, my brother, who I share a residence with. He shuts down when I shutdown despite that I beg him not to.
So I am going to give it a couple weeks, as you are supposed to after vaccination (you really are supposed to wait 2 weeks after second vaccination, but I am not doing that) and then going about my life, taking precautions as best I can. My 2021 starts April 1.
So you isolated yourself for a year, and now, with the endzone in sight, you are going to go rogue. Can't wait the extra two weeks?
So how are you any different than AZ or his sort?
Quote: billryanSo you isolated yourself for a year, and now, with the endzone in sight, you are going to go rogue. Can't wait the extra two weeks?
So how are you any different than AZ or his sort?
Well, I haven't isolated for a year. After I had covid, I relied on medical opinion that I had some immunity for a period of time. They thought maybe 6 months back then and that appears to still be holding true. So after I recovered I got out and played most of June through October. Probably would have been better not playing and isolating as those months weren't great for me blackjack wise.
But fast forward the science currently says that you should wait 2 weeks after second vaccine for 100% protection, but that you are probably have 85% of that protection 2 weeks after first vaccine. I am ok with that. It is time for me to et back to my life and allow my brother to get back to his. It doesn't mean I am "going rouge". I will stay take every precaution I can. Wear mask, avoid crowds. Probably will seek out heads up situations with dealer, maybe 1 other player.
This is what I am comfortable with right now. It may change in the future. But good luck to you billryan. You do what you are comfortable with and I wish you well and good health.
Here is where it gets stupid. I was wearing a long sleeved shirt that I rolled up for the shot and the nurse rolled down.
I get home and take my shirt off( it's the first spring-like day in two weeks) to change to a short sleeve shirt. I take my glasses off, and as I'm changing I see in the mirror that the area where I got the shot looks purple, uneven, and just plain nasty. It took a micro-second to realize the nurse had put an over-sized purple and black puffy band-aid on the location. It was about 4x4 and almost gave me a heart attack.
Quote: billryanSo you isolated yourself for a year, and now, with the endzone in sight, you are going to go rogue. Can't wait the extra two weeks?
So how are you any different than AZ or his sort?
"MY SORT?!"
Quote: kewljHow did YOU get your vaccine weeks ago? You weren't of age at the time, even with medical conditions (which I am not asking about). Must be a who you know kind of thing. lol Whatever, I hope everyone gets vaccinated and is safe.
Some pharmacies take anybody willing at the end of the day if other people didn't show up for their shot and they were going to have to dispose of the vaccines. Better to have it in someone's arm than in the trash.
