odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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March 18th, 2020 at 4:13:19 AM permalink
If you can say these two things, then there is a way to have some fun with some extra gambling in the stock market 

* I am buying stocks now that I know may go down instead of up in the near term anyway. 

* I don't mind getting 'stuck' with these stocks, so to speak. 

The Dow is likely to have a bottom around where it is now [should open today around 20,000]. Or, pick a different spot lower that would be more comfortable for you, if you think it is going there. But a likely bottom. Use the S&P 500 index instead maybe.

Buy a certain amount of stocks when the market is around that low [that'll be me today] and immediately put in a sell order for when it goes back up a certain amount. Stocks are going up and down 5% these days. If it turns out you didn't pick the bottom and you are 'stuck' with these stocks, you already said you wouldn't mind. Or you may just catch a period where it keeps going up and down and you just cash in. 

My plan: buy the ETF DIA today, that's one doing this 5% up and down thing. It'll be an amount that is allocated for the gambling - I've already bought for long term at around 20000 dow so I otherwise wouldn't be buying. I'll then put in an order to sell at 4% higher. I'll use a retirement account so that the short term tax effect that you get in a regular account will not come into play. 

If I get stuck with it, fine. I'll let you know how this goes.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
100xOdds
100xOdds
Joined: Feb 5, 2012
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March 18th, 2020 at 7:17:31 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

If you can say these two things, then there is a way to have some fun with some extra gambling in the stock market 

* I am buying stocks now that I know may go down instead of up in the near term anyway. 

* I don't mind getting 'stuck' with these stocks, so to speak. 

The Dow is likely to have a bottom around where it is now [should open today around 20,000]. Or, pick a different spot lower that would be more comfortable for you, if you think it is going there. But a likely bottom. Use the S&P 500 index instead maybe.

Buy a certain amount of stocks when the market is around that low [that'll be me today] and immediately put in a sell order for when it goes back up a certain amount. Stocks are going up and down 5% these days. If it turns out you didn't pick the bottom and you are 'stuck' with these stocks, you already said you wouldn't mind. Or you may just catch a period where it keeps going up and down and you just cash in. 

My plan: buy the ETF DIA today, that's one doing this 5% up and down thing. It'll be an amount that is allocated for the gambling - I've already bought for long term at around 20000 dow so I otherwise wouldn't be buying. I'll then put in an order to sell at 4% higher. I'll use a retirement account so that the short term tax effect that you get in a regular account will not come into play. 

If I get stuck with it, fine. I'll let you know how this goes.


use triple leveraged index funds if you're going to play the market like that.
tqqq and sqqq -> follows the top 100 of Nasdaq
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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March 18th, 2020 at 7:35:55 AM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

use triple leveraged index funds if you're going to play the market like that.
tqqq and sqqq -> follows the top 100 of Nasdaq

I've done that in the past and done pretty well. This was during a frustrating doldrums phase when the market wouldn't move.

But it doesn't fit well with the "don't mind getting stuck" bit
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
100xOdds
100xOdds
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March 18th, 2020 at 7:54:18 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

I've done that in the past and done pretty well. This was during a frustrating doldrums phase when the market wouldn't move.

But it doesn't fit well with the "don't mind getting stuck" bit

ahh.. true.

also, why do you believe dow= 20k is the botom?
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
Lovecomps
Lovecomps
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March 18th, 2020 at 8:09:37 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

If you can say these two things, then there is a way to have some fun with some extra gambling in the stock market 



As someone who does this for a living let me assure you that it's not about "to have some fun", or "extra gambling." We're in a recession. It's not the first that I've been through nor will it be the last. Don't try to pick the bottom and hope things that it'll reverse the next day. Just buy what you believe in and stick it out for a few years.

This didn't happen because of the government coming off the gold standard, an oil embargo, the overbought condition of Internet stocks, or the outright greed of trying to buy flip houses with total banking irresponsibility. It's just a virus.

A simple question to ponder...do you think that we'll be flying planes, gambling, or taking cruises in the next 2 or 3 years? If your answer is yes the just buy what you think and wait it out.

P.S. This is why you need to have capital reserves.
The best things in life are not free.
100xOdds
100xOdds
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March 18th, 2020 at 8:14:18 AM permalink
Quote: Lovecomps

As someone who does this for a living let me assure you that it's not about "to have some fun", or "extra gambling." We're in a recession. It's not the first that I've been through nor will it be the last. Don't try to pick the bottom and hope things that it'll reverse the next day. Just buy what you believe in and stick it out for a few years.

This didn't happen because of the government coming off the gold standard, an oil embargo, the overbought condition of Internet stocks, or the outright greed of trying to buy flip houses with total banking irresponsibility. It's just a virus.

A simple question to ponder...do you think that we'll be flying planes, gambling, or taking cruises in the next 2 or 3 years? If your answer is yes the just buy what you think and wait it out.

P.S. This is why you need to have capital reserves.

do you think think dow= 20k is the bottom?
if no, what's your guess at the bottom?

or what signs/signals that it's the bottom?
(i have 6figures cash waiting to buy)
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
Lovecomps
Lovecomps
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March 18th, 2020 at 8:25:18 AM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

do you think think dow= 20k is the bottom?
if no, what's your guess at the bottom?

or what signs/signals that it's the bottom?
(i have 6figures cash waiting to buy)



My professional answer is "how the heck do I know?" If I did know I certainly wouldn't tell anyone. A bailout for the airline industry could help Delta, United, et al. That is not a discretionary industry. Business and commerce depends on it (most people forget that a lot of airlines also have a cargo component). Casinos and cruislines are not vital to the consumer and will recover, but it will take a lot longer.

If you go back on any of these stocks and find an article from some know-nothing analyst it's laughable when they predict a target price that's 75% or more off the mark. That shows how useless they are. If they knew anything then they'd be in the trenches wth me.

Even more laughable, there's a class action lawsuit being filed against Noregian Cruise lines because people are pissed about the stock price going down when nearly every stock price has gone down.

As an aside; at this very moment the DJIA is at 19,906.
The best things in life are not free.
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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March 18th, 2020 at 9:28:01 AM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

ahh.. true.

also, why do you believe dow= 20k is the botom?

just gambling on a hunch that it will hover around that. I'd say it probably is not the bottom. If the market hovers around some lower amount, that means I am 'stuck' with what I bought and will redesignate that for the long term.

If I think it is going to hover again, off we go again if I am in the mood.

Anything you buy now is going to make you look like a genius if you hold it long enough. The problem is knowing whether that is a matter of months or not - years would be OK in my case up to a certain point. A repeat of 2009 would be delightful
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
Joeman
Joeman
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March 18th, 2020 at 9:54:58 AM permalink
I am certainly not a financial professional, but I think it's going to get worse before it gets better. Someone on the radio compared this economic downturn to what happened to the markets after 9/11. OK, but I think the "9/11 event" hasn't happened yet. As for the near future, I think that this ramping up of testing (Jacksonville set up a drive-thru testing center outside the Jaguars' stadium just yesterday) will reveal many more cases than has been reported so far. I don't think the markets will respond well to this.

I don't think the markets will trend upward until we see the light at the end of the tunnel, so to speak -- something like finding an effective vaccine or a slowing of new cases globally.

But what do I know? If I was that smart, I would have sold off my portfolio 3 weeks ago!
"Dealer has 'rock'... Pay 'paper!'"
100xOdds
100xOdds
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March 18th, 2020 at 10:06:33 AM permalink
Quote: Joeman

But what do I know? If I was that smart, I would have sold off my portfolio 3 weeks ago!

i traded my stocks to corp bonds 2years ago, expecting a Trump crash.
Got lucky with a pandemic. :o

i should buy a lotto ticket...
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)

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