Fun with Stocks
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* I am buying stocks now that I know may go down instead of up in the near term anyway.
* I don't mind getting 'stuck' with these stocks, so to speak.
The Dow is likely to have a bottom around where it is now [should open today around 20,000]. Or, pick a different spot lower that would be more comfortable for you, if you think it is going there. But a likely bottom. Use the S&P 500 index instead maybe.
Buy a certain amount of stocks when the market is around that low [that'll be me today] and immediately put in a sell order for when it goes back up a certain amount. Stocks are going up and down 5% these days. If it turns out you didn't pick the bottom and you are 'stuck' with these stocks, you already said you wouldn't mind. Or you may just catch a period where it keeps going up and down and you just cash in.
My plan: buy the ETF DIA today, that's one doing this 5% up and down thing. It'll be an amount that is allocated for the gambling - I've already bought for long term at around 20000 dow so I otherwise wouldn't be buying. I'll then put in an order to sell at 4% higher. I'll use a retirement account so that the short term tax effect that you get in a regular account will not come into play.
If I get stuck with it, fine. I'll let you know how this goes.
Quote: odiousgambitIf you can say these two things, then there is a way to have some fun with some extra gambling in the stock market
* I am buying stocks now that I know may go down instead of up in the near term anyway.
* I don't mind getting 'stuck' with these stocks, so to speak.
The Dow is likely to have a bottom around where it is now [should open today around 20,000]. Or, pick a different spot lower that would be more comfortable for you, if you think it is going there. But a likely bottom. Use the S&P 500 index instead maybe.
Buy a certain amount of stocks when the market is around that low [that'll be me today] and immediately put in a sell order for when it goes back up a certain amount. Stocks are going up and down 5% these days. If it turns out you didn't pick the bottom and you are 'stuck' with these stocks, you already said you wouldn't mind. Or you may just catch a period where it keeps going up and down and you just cash in.
My plan: buy the ETF DIA today, that's one doing this 5% up and down thing. It'll be an amount that is allocated for the gambling - I've already bought for long term at around 20000 dow so I otherwise wouldn't be buying. I'll then put in an order to sell at 4% higher. I'll use a retirement account so that the short term tax effect that you get in a regular account will not come into play.
If I get stuck with it, fine. I'll let you know how this goes.
use triple leveraged index funds if you're going to play the market like that.
tqqq and sqqq -> follows the top 100 of Nasdaq
I've done that in the past and done pretty well. This was during a frustrating doldrums phase when the market wouldn't move.Quote: 100xOddsuse triple leveraged index funds if you're going to play the market like that.
tqqq and sqqq -> follows the top 100 of Nasdaq
But it doesn't fit well with the "don't mind getting stuck" bit
ahh.. true.Quote: odiousgambitI've done that in the past and done pretty well. This was during a frustrating doldrums phase when the market wouldn't move.
But it doesn't fit well with the "don't mind getting stuck" bit
also, why do you believe dow= 20k is the botom?
Quote: odiousgambitIf you can say these two things, then there is a way to have some fun with some extra gambling in the stock market
As someone who does this for a living let me assure you that it's not about "to have some fun", or "extra gambling." We're in a recession. It's not the first that I've been through nor will it be the last. Don't try to pick the bottom and hope things that it'll reverse the next day. Just buy what you believe in and stick it out for a few years.
This didn't happen because of the government coming off the gold standard, an oil embargo, the overbought condition of Internet stocks, or the outright greed of trying to buy flip houses with total banking irresponsibility. It's just a virus.
A simple question to ponder...do you think that we'll be flying planes, gambling, or taking cruises in the next 2 or 3 years? If your answer is yes the just buy what you think and wait it out.
P.S. This is why you need to have capital reserves.
do you think think dow= 20k is the bottom?Quote: LovecompsAs someone who does this for a living let me assure you that it's not about "to have some fun", or "extra gambling." We're in a recession. It's not the first that I've been through nor will it be the last. Don't try to pick the bottom and hope things that it'll reverse the next day. Just buy what you believe in and stick it out for a few years.
This didn't happen because of the government coming off the gold standard, an oil embargo, the overbought condition of Internet stocks, or the outright greed of trying to buy flip houses with total banking irresponsibility. It's just a virus.
A simple question to ponder...do you think that we'll be flying planes, gambling, or taking cruises in the next 2 or 3 years? If your answer is yes the just buy what you think and wait it out.
P.S. This is why you need to have capital reserves.
if no, what's your guess at the bottom?
or what signs/signals that it's the bottom?
(i have 6figures cash waiting to buy)
Quote: 100xOddsdo you think think dow= 20k is the bottom?
if no, what's your guess at the bottom?
or what signs/signals that it's the bottom?
(i have 6figures cash waiting to buy)
My professional answer is "how the heck do I know?" If I did know I certainly wouldn't tell anyone. A bailout for the airline industry could help Delta, United, et al. That is not a discretionary industry. Business and commerce depends on it (most people forget that a lot of airlines also have a cargo component). Casinos and cruislines are not vital to the consumer and will recover, but it will take a lot longer.
If you go back on any of these stocks and find an article from some know-nothing analyst it's laughable when they predict a target price that's 75% or more off the mark. That shows how useless they are. If they knew anything then they'd be in the trenches wth me.
Even more laughable, there's a class action lawsuit being filed against Noregian Cruise lines because people are pissed about the stock price going down when nearly every stock price has gone down.
As an aside; at this very moment the DJIA is at 19,906.
just gambling on a hunch that it will hover around that. I'd say it probably is not the bottom. If the market hovers around some lower amount, that means I am 'stuck' with what I bought and will redesignate that for the long term.Quote: 100xOddsahh.. true.
also, why do you believe dow= 20k is the botom?
If I think it is going to hover again, off we go again if I am in the mood.
Anything you buy now is going to make you look like a genius if you hold it long enough. The problem is knowing whether that is a matter of months or not - years would be OK in my case up to a certain point. A repeat of 2009 would be delightful
I don't think the markets will trend upward until we see the light at the end of the tunnel, so to speak -- something like finding an effective vaccine or a slowing of new cases globally.
But what do I know? If I was that smart, I would have sold off my portfolio 3 weeks ago!
i traded my stocks to corp bonds 2years ago, expecting a Trump crash.Quote: JoemanBut what do I know? If I was that smart, I would have sold off my portfolio 3 weeks ago!
Got lucky with a pandemic. :o
i should buy a lotto ticket...
I made my 'bet' with DIA at 200, to sell at 211 [closed at 199.39]. Midday it sure looked like I had rolled 'craps' , for the dice game analogy. Now I'm going to say I've rolled a point to make, and a tough one - like a 4 or 10. Come on shooter!
Worst case scenario, the bet will 'travel' to long term investment status. The 'house' got its cut of $10 fee on the transaction, but doesn't just take the bet! Then I'll try to decide if I think there is another level that stocks are going to hover around instead of this one. When there is a bottom El-Erian will probably be right, that it will be U shaped and not V shaped, and as he put it, "a U shape that will feel like an L" is very possible.
Here is a new El-Erian video, which btw was from an interview earlier in the week I happen to know
hm.. financial markets will lead the economy and with authority in a near straight line.Quote: odiousgambitEven when things are calmer, futures can change drastically just before the open, which as I write this is about 2 and a half hours away. But it looks like the open today will still have us hovering around 20,000 on the dow, but lower somewhat . Yes, the open and the close are two different things. So is the high and low for the day.
I made my 'bet' with DIA at 200, to sell at 211 [closed at 199.39]. Midday it sure looked like I had rolled 'craps' , for the dice game analogy. Now I'm going to say I've rolled a point to make, and a tough one - like a 4 or 10. Come on shooter!
Worst case scenario, the bet will 'travel' to long term investment status. The 'house' got its cut of $10 fee on the transaction, but doesn't just take the bet! Then I'll try to decide if I think there is another level that stocks are going to hover around instead of this one. When there is a bottom El-Erian will probably be right, that it will be U shaped and not V shaped, and as he put it, "a U shape that will feel like an L" is very possible.
Here is a new El-Erian video, which btw was from an interview earlier in the week I happen to know
so buy vti when vfh spikes huge?
If it doesn't come roaring back I'll have to declare I suffered a 7-out on my bet with my Craps analogy and look for evidence for what new level seems to have support before any new bet.
Just don't have Mdawg's knack for it!
Quote: odiousgambitLooks like the DOW will close around 19000 or close to it.
If it doesn't come roaring back I'll have to declare I suffered a 7-out on my bet with my Craps analogy and look for evidence for what new level seems to have support before any new bet.
Just don't have Mdawg's knack for it!
Even Warren Buffet doesn't have Mdawgs abilities!
Even Mdawg doesn't have Mdawgs abilities!Quote: vegasEven Warren Buffet doesn't have Mdawgs abilities!
even a blind squirrel can still find a few nuts
*actually futures showed it might sell at 213 at the open so I cancelled 211 and changed it to 213 (faulty Craps analogy but wanted to keep that up)
what stock?Quote: odiousgambitI could have sworn I heard the dealer say 7-out, but when I looked nobody scooped up my bet; early today I added some free odds* - the bet won selling at 213
even a blind squirrel can still find a few nuts
*actually futures showed it might sell at 213 at the open so I cancelled 211 and changed it to 213 (faulty Craps analogy but wanted to keep that up)
the etf that follows the 30 companies of the Dow, DIA, bought @ 200, sold at 213Quote: 100xOddswhat stock?
So it is time to make another bet, but I want to be convinced we are hanging around a certain level
It's easier for me to do small amounts recently since T Rowe Price dropped commissions on trades
bought SPXL at $99.235
then set up to sell those @ 109.99 if and when it gets there, making about $10 a share
SPXL is a leveraged ETF described as "3X" so it should exaggerate gains and losses
Reason to gamble: I'm bored and have a hunch the market will hover around 34000 for a while, going up over that and then coming back down. Could be a rinse and repeat. Using a retirement account, so there is no short term taxation issue
Risk: market may go down and stay down and I don't want to hold on to SPXL long term
I abandoned the idea of making $10+ per share and switched to going by percentages. Since there is no commission, it seems to make more sense. Market is back up today and this is at $101.85 at the moment , which is a 2.64% increase and I sold.Quote: odiousgambit... bought SPXL at $99.235
then set up to sell those @ 109.99 if and when it gets there, making about $10 a share
we'll see if my hunch the market is 'hovering' and this will go back down and I'll buy again... looking for lower than $99 though
If you're buying for a reason, sell for a reason, but if you're buying for no reason, sell for no reason.Quote: odiousgambitI abandoned the idea of making $10+ per share and switched to going by percentages. Since there is no commission, it seems to make more sense. Market is back up today and this is at $101.85 at the moment , which is a 2.64% increase and I sold.
we'll see if my hunch the market is 'hovering' and this will go back down and I'll buy again... looking for lower than $99 though
Quote: odiousgambitI abandoned the idea of making $10+ per share and switched to going by percentages. Since there is no commission, it seems to make more sense. Market is back up today and this is at $101.85 at the moment , which is a 2.64% increase and I sold.
we'll see if my hunch the market is 'hovering' and this will go back down and I'll buy again... looking for lower than $99 though
Is this in a taxable account? Short-term capital gains taxes suck.
no, a retirement account, this time a Roth which is tax free gain. Sometimes I use a traditional IRA, which still has no impact because the fully taxable status in that case goes unchanged .Quote: billryanIs this in a taxable account? Short-term capital gains taxes suck.
Just bought SPXL again at 95.68 and will sell at 98.60 to go for a 3% gain
I admit there seems to be a feeling things are shaky so the move might be a bust, but the uncertainty, in this particular strategy, is also the only thing that can create the opportunity
Quote: odiousgambitI'm still going with the idea the market will oscillate around the current values
Just bought SPXL again at 95.68 and will sell at 98.60 to go for a 3% gain
I admit there seems to be a feeling things are shaky so the move might be a bust, but the uncertainty, in this particular strategy, is also the only thing that can create the opportunity
I like your strategy quite a bit - although I don't do it myself for various reasons - it's fun to look at different kinds of strategies
the best thing about it IMO - is that if you're looking for short term gains and you guess wrong and it takes a tumble then you can just wait
the S&P has always come back - although it's possible if you tumble in the middle of a bear market it could take a couple of years
that's pretty unlikely as we haven't had many bear markets recently - the last one was 2008 - 13 years ago
so yes, it makes a lot of sense to me and does seem like it could be a lot of fun with small amounts even if your main strategy is buy and hold with the majority of your holdings
if I ever did decide to do it I would buy on the dips - on the days where the actual S%P lost about 1% or more
*
fairly sure I won't repeat, I have less confidence now that the market will keep around this level
Sounds like the play book for the 3rd quarter, but we're in the 4th now and my copy is blank.Quote: billryanBuy some blue chips, re-invest the dividends and forget about them for the next five years. Your finances and mental health will be better for it.
Quote: billryanBuy some blue chips, re-invest the dividends and forget about them for the next five years. Your finances and mental health will be better for it.
Is TSLA a blue chip? AMZN?
Was GM, ENRON, GE, CITI a few decades ago? I owned all 4 ‘blue chips’. GM and ENRON went bankrupt. The other two lost well over 75% of their value and still are worth less than 20 years ago.
One of my smarter decisions was to buy Berkshire Hathaway. It basically owns pieces of lots of companies. Warren Buffett is better at determining what a ‘blue chip’ is than I am. Also, for ‘cash’ account (non retirement) Buffett has structured it NOT to pay dividends so no tax liability at all until YOU decide to sell for a profit. And when you do it is a lower taxed long term gain, not a dividend obviously.
You can pick and chose that a particular stock didn't perform well, which is why a smart investor diversifies and owns a basket of stocks, not a couple of them, although these days you don't need to buy individual stocks as there is an exchange-traded fund for any possible market segment you can come up with.
