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SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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March 17th, 2021 at 12:40:16 PM permalink
Iím in Florida.... out and about... but as the Dawg says.... I booked a hunny..... 10 shares TSLA 680-690.
Still stuck with NOK and NAK. NAK getting close to back even....
DRich
DRich
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March 17th, 2021 at 12:48:58 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Iím in Florida....



I hope you give us a trip report. I just booked 4 nights in Myrtle Beach today.
Order from chaos
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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March 17th, 2021 at 12:55:54 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

I hope you give us a trip report. I just booked 4 nights in Myrtle Beach today.



I have never even considered a trip report. Hereís today... woke up, had a doughnut and went golfing. First 9 holes were a horror, 50, probably 53-55 if played by the full rules... second nine... much better, was 5 over after 8, then lost count on the 18th hole. Who the hell is interested in that? After golf went with real estate agent... looked at houses... none Ďperfectí for us.

So not suspended for hijacking.... I know itís just a Ďhunnyí, but it just feels good to push a few buttons and make it. In a weird way Iím glad I have the two Ďtradesí that are still underwater to remind me there are no guarantees.
OnceDear
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OnceDear
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March 17th, 2021 at 1:44:42 PM permalink
Quote: MDawg


Still, that's 1450 in two days without even trying.


First two buys of Tesla, MDawg put (100*688+100*671)=$135,900 into play, and ultimately at stake. With that, he pulled a profit of (200*680.5)-135900=$200

It might be remarkable that MDawg has no fear when wagering $135,900 on this daily wager. But a profit of $200 on the 'session trade' is not in the least bit unlikely or impressive.

200/135900=0.147% of stake.

Whoopedy Doo..

He could* do this day in. day out for years with high probability of success. Heck, he could have martingaled $200 on roulette red just as easily. With bad luck he might have gone something like. . .
-200 (200 up or 200 down))
-(200+400) (200 up or 600 down)
-((200+400)+800) (200 up or 1400 down)
-(((200+400)+800)+1600) (200 up or 3000 down)
-((((200+400)+800)+1600)+3200) (200 up or 6200 down)
-(((((200+400)+800)+1600)+3200)+6400) (200 up or 12600 down)
-((((((200+400)+800)+1600)+3200)+6400)+12800) (200 up or 25400 down)
-(((((((200+400)+800)+1600)+3200)+6400)+12800)+25600) (200 up or 51000 down)
-((((((((200+400)+800)+1600)+3200)+6400)+12800)+25600)+51200) (200 up or 102200 down)

In other words, he'd be $200 up with just ONE winning spin out of 9: Probability of success = 1-((18/37)^9) =99.85%

And, of course, being MDawg, he could just draw down a few hundred more K from his line if that 9th spin went bad.
I don't know whether MDawg ever actually buys these shares or puts these significant funds at risks. He claims he does, so I won't call him a liar. I sure as heck would never try to emulate him by 'averaging in' aggressively and putting hundreds of thousands at risk just so i could claim the kudos of being a consistent hit and run 'winner'.

Shares hit an all time high time after time, forever.... until they don't.
Averaging in: Investors Martingale


Serious question to MDawg. Why don't you leverage?
Beware. The earth is NOT flat. Hit and run is not a winning strategy: Pressing into trends IS not a winning strategy: Progressives are not a winning strategy: Don't Buy It! .Don't even take it for free.
unJon
unJon
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March 17th, 2021 at 1:57:52 PM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

Quote: MDawg


Still, that's 1450 in two days without even trying.


First two buys of Tesla, MDawg put (100*688+100*671)=$135,900 into play, and ultimately at stake. With that, he pulled a profit of (200*680.5)-135900=$200

It might be remarkable that MDawg has no fear when wagering $135,900 on this daily wager. But a profit of $200 on the day is not in the least bit unlikely or impressive/

200/135900=0.147% of stake.

Whoopedy Doo..

He could* do this day in. day out for years with high probability of success. Heck, he could have martingaled $200 on roulette red just as easily. With bad luck he might have gone something like. . .
-200 (200 up or 200 down))
-(200+400) (200 up or 600 down)
-((200+400)+800) (200 up or 1400 down)
-(((200+400)+800)+1600) (200 up or 3000 down)
-((((200+400)+800)+1600)+3200) (200 up or 6200 down)
-(((((200+400)+800)+1600)+3200)+6400) (200 up or 12600 down)
-((((((200+400)+800)+1600)+3200)+6400)+12800) (200 up or 25400 down)
-(((((((200+400)+800)+1600)+3200)+6400)+12800)+25600) (200 up or 51000 down)
-((((((((200+400)+800)+1600)+3200)+6400)+12800)+25600)+51200) (200 up or 102200 down)

In other words, he'd be $200 up with just ONE winning spin out of 9: Probability of success = 1-((18/37)^9) =99.85%

And, of course, being MDawg, he could just draw down a few hundred more K from his line if that 9th spin went bad.
I don't know whether MDawg ever actually buys these shares or puts these significant funds at risks. He claims he does, so I won't call him a liar. I sure as heck would never try to emulate him by 'averaging in' aggressively and putting hundreds of thousands at risk just so i could claim the kudos of being a consistent hit and run 'winner'.

Shares hit an all time high time after time, forever.... until they don't.
Averaging in: Investors Martingale


Serious question to MDawg. Why don't you leverage?



Except the stock market is +EV. So your critique isnít quite accurate.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
OnceDear
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OnceDear
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March 17th, 2021 at 2:03:26 PM permalink
Quote: unJon

Except the stock market is +EV. So your critique isnít quite accurate.

The stock market has tended to be +EV over many/most intervals for as long as we can remember. I'll give you that.

Another two questions for MDawg: Do you have a Bid:Ask spread on these shares? Are there ANY trading platform costs or commissions?
Beware. The earth is NOT flat. Hit and run is not a winning strategy: Pressing into trends IS not a winning strategy: Progressives are not a winning strategy: Don't Buy It! .Don't even take it for free.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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Thanks for this post from:
OnceDear
March 17th, 2021 at 5:44:20 PM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

The stock market has tended to be +EV over many/most intervals for as long as we can remember. I'll give you that.

Another two questions for MDawg: Do you have a Bid:Ask spread on these shares? Are there ANY trading platform costs or commissions?



Iím also doing what Dawg is doing. There are essentially no fees now, other than a few pennies here and there.
Today I put around $7k Ďat riskí to make $100. If I failed, itís not like the entire $7k disappears. I would have just owned 10 more TSLA shares than I already do. So if I didnít put that 7k at risk doing this, what would I have been doing with it? Close to nothing..... my cash is earning less than .1% annually! I have been apparently more aggressive than MDawg, as I have done maybe 10 stocks recently. He has only posted I think two stocks... TSLA and AMZN.

As far as a bid/ask spread... good question.... yes! Iíve always said that is the hidden fee you donít see. But for heavily traded stocks it is pretty small.
MDawg
MDawg
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March 17th, 2021 at 10:02:41 PM permalink
These days there are only SEC fees on the way out - no commission. SEC fees are 5.10 per 1000000 , so - yes, if you're doing the larger trades these do actually add up. 400 shares of AMZN on the exit, assuming 1.2M costs me 6.12 which is not insignificant compared to what I was most recently paying for commission, 4.95 per trade.

BID/ASK spread is just a way for market makers (MMs) to make money on transactions. They buy at one end and sell at the other and pocket the difference. Sometimes this spread, on for example AMZN is as much as five dollars when the mms are being really greedy, other times I have seen it as low as a penny on TSLA. I use the spread as an indicator of which direction the stock might be about to move, in the very short term, as in - seconds or minutes. Which spreads mean what, and at what times? Well, you'll just have to figure that out for yourself - and most traders never figure it out. Watching where the fills are coming in compared to the Bid and Ask is another way to figure out which way the stock is moving in the very short term. Some traders also use Level 2 which shows everyone lined up on the BID and ASK as a further indicator of which way the wind is blowing - I do glance at Level 2 sometimes, but I've gone well beyond the need to rely on it.

Bid/Ask also obviously stops you from buying and selling instantly at a profit, but let's say you buy AMZN at 3130 and at that moment it is running 3129 x 3131, well, yes that means that it will need to run one dollar or so before you are even, but in practice, especially for the practically scalping trades I do for these very large caps (just a few points, maybe five) it's almost a non-issue - if fast moving stocks like these run in your direction at all, you will be more than put into the green.

SooPoo, whether he realizes it or not, is actually more swing than day trading. I buy larger lots and go for just a few points. I used to buy even larger lots, and go for 1 point only. He's buying relatively small lots and going for enough points to make something worthwhile - swing trading. I swing trade only when I get stuck past the day - in such cases I am no longer content with just a few points and generally actually RAISE my sell to make some more serious money to compensate me for my time stuck in the trade. As I have said many times, it may seem counterintuitive to RAISE your sell price after you're even more points away from it than before, but the correct theory is that when it makes it all the way back to that original mark it will almost invariably bust through higher.


BTC making a comeback towards its highs.
Last edited by: MDawg on Mar 17, 2021
I tell you itís wonderful to be here, man. I donít give a damn who wins or loses. Itís just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
MDawg
MDawg
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March 18th, 2021 at 7:37:51 AM permalink
Booked my K so I felt justified in getting out of bed a bit ago. Had to hang tough especially on that AMZN trade - took a long time to come around, but I wanted the balance of that K for the day and wasn't going to let up until I got a fill. By the way, I noticed the spread on AMZN at around 6 dollars today at times.  🤓


Enjoy the posting of these trades until the end of the month. After that the wager related to the authenticity of these trades will no longer be available, so I'll probably just revert to mentioning some of the trades and no longer going to all this effort of posting every corroborating screenshot.

The other wager, related to the authenticity of my casino WIN statements is available too, until the end of this month.

SooPoo, this is another example of why the early morning trades are often higher probability - as the Nasdaq was pushing minus 250 I kept saying to myself, "it's too early for this much of a drop," and I was right. Later on - anything goes. We might push higher we might test lower lows.

As usual I could have made a lot more on each of my trades, but that is a testament to how high probability they were. Entry points were savagely good, real take it or leave it bottom fishing. And that's the way you want to be with day trading - take an opportunity of you see it, be patient, and don't even pull the trigger at all until and unless the time is right.
Last edited by: MDawg on Mar 18, 2021
I tell you itís wonderful to be here, man. I donít give a damn who wins or loses. Itís just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
MDawg
MDawg
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Thanks for this post from:
RogerKint
March 18th, 2021 at 10:34:02 AM permalink
Got bored so I plucked another six hunny out of nowhere with a couple bottom fishing lightweight TSLA trades. Bot 100 NFLX for a swing trade if it hits 515 today will sell, otherwise will hold for a bit. Going to head to the gym now, eat then resume Baccarat play.

I tell you itís wonderful to be here, man. I donít give a damn who wins or loses. Itís just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/

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