Thread Rating:

Ace2
Ace2
Joined: Oct 2, 2017
  • Threads: 31
  • Posts: 1839
June 16th, 2022 at 4:28:58 PM permalink
Quote: DRich



Just remember it isn't a loss until you sell.
link to original post

Also remember: if you bought the Nasdaq in 2000 or certain real estate in 2005, it took FIFTEEN YEARS to recover! And that is just to recover its previous nominal value, so in inflation-adjusted terms you're still way below that previous value after many years

Both of those examples are from very recent history...it's not like I had to cherry pick some statistic from the Great Depression.

You may be fine waiting 15 years to break even. I'm not
Last edited by: Ace2 on Jun 16, 2022
Itís all about making that GTA
MDawg
MDawg
Joined: Sep 27, 2018
  • Threads: 34
  • Posts: 4815
June 17th, 2022 at 8:58:50 AM permalink
Referring to what, a trade or trades I posted about opening long ago that I closed long ago?

I don't think people understand what trading is. On a given stock a higher price might lend to a great trade at that moment, while a lower price the same day might not. Arbitrary price points aren't what trading is about - the time to buy for a trade is when the time is right.

"It isn't as important to buy as cheap as possible as it is to buy at the right time."
- Jesse Lauriston Livermore.
I tell you itís wonderful to be here, man. I donít give a damn who wins or loses. Itís just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
Ace2
Ace2
Joined: Oct 2, 2017
  • Threads: 31
  • Posts: 1839
Thanks for this post from:
RogerKint
June 17th, 2022 at 2:03:50 PM permalink
Looking at the bear markets that bottomed in 2002 and 2009, the former bottomed with an S&P 500 value around 770 and the latter with a value about 670. Adjusting for nominal GDP growth, which has been 111% since 2002 and 56% since 2009, that implies a bottom between 1050 and 1620 for the current bear market, which is 56% to 71% below today's closing value of 3,675. Note that 1050 would be a whopping 78% drop from the S&P's January peak...that shows how it was much more overvalued that it's ever been, and still is at 3675.

Nobody knows how this will play out, but if bear market drops of this magnitude have happened twice just in the last twenty years, they can happen again. This time could be even worse since we have an asset bubble AND surging inflation/rates
Itís all about making that GTA
Ace2
Ace2
Joined: Oct 2, 2017
  • Threads: 31
  • Posts: 1839
June 17th, 2022 at 2:16:19 PM permalink
Quote: MDawg

Referring to what, a trade or trades I posted about opening long ago that I closed long ago?

I don't think people understand what trading is.

I understand exactly what it is in your case. It's when you made a long term purchase (and specified it as such) of an extremely overhyped stock at the peak of the bubble and are losing your a$$ so far. So then you start saying it was actually just a "trade" and, of course, you made money.

Others have asked you to start posting your entry and exit points (as they happen) for these "trades", but that's not ever going to happen for obvious reasons. If some happen very quicky, then you could pre-post your intention to enter/exit at x prices
Last edited by: Ace2 on Jun 17, 2022
Itís all about making that GTA
MDawg
MDawg
Joined: Sep 27, 2018
  • Threads: 34
  • Posts: 4815
June 17th, 2022 at 9:57:30 PM permalink
Not all traders are successful. And few non-traders know enough about trading to understand it well. Even fewer are willing to put up some money to back up their erroneous assumptions. CHALLENGE1 CHALLENGE2
I tell you itís wonderful to be here, man. I donít give a damn who wins or loses. Itís just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
MDawg
MDawg
Joined: Sep 27, 2018
  • Threads: 34
  • Posts: 4815
July 7th, 2022 at 9:59:05 PM permalink
We have some up action lately. Remember, a few weeks is an eternity in this market.

SPY is above 385, which means that anyone who sold out below, is locked out, unless wants to buy back higher!
I tell you itís wonderful to be here, man. I donít give a damn who wins or loses. Itís just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
Ace2
Ace2
Joined: Oct 2, 2017
  • Threads: 31
  • Posts: 1839
July 7th, 2022 at 11:04:31 PM permalink
Quote: MDawg

We have some up action lately. Remember, a few weeks is an eternity in this market.

SPY is above 385, which means that anyone who sold out below, is locked out, unless wants to buy back higher!
link to original post

So youíre calling this the bottom? Based on Ö?

Didnít you already call the bottom at SPY 430?

ďUp actionĒ haha. Like every bear market, this one has not been a ride straight down. Going by bear market averages, there is at least another 15% downside

Another very realistic scenario is that the person who sold at 385 starts buying back at 240. Market has dropped 50%+ twice in last 20 yearsÖand from MUCH lower peak valuations
Last edited by: Ace2 on Jul 7, 2022
Itís all about making that GTA
MDawg
MDawg
Joined: Sep 27, 2018
  • Threads: 34
  • Posts: 4815
July 8th, 2022 at 9:54:27 AM permalink

at 381.
I tell you itís wonderful to be here, man. I donít give a damn who wins or loses. Itís just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
unJon
unJon
Joined: Jul 1, 2018
  • Threads: 14
  • Posts: 3544
July 8th, 2022 at 2:24:05 PM permalink
And Musk terminates Twitter merger agreement. Strap in your seatbelts, you Twitter equity holders.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
MDawg
MDawg
Joined: Sep 27, 2018
  • Threads: 34
  • Posts: 4815
July 20th, 2022 at 8:32:25 AM permalink
SPY pushing 400, so all those who jettisoned at 381 should be thinking about how they might never be able to get back on board without buying back higher!
I tell you itís wonderful to be here, man. I donít give a damn who wins or loses. Itís just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/

  • Jump to: