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odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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March 9th, 2020 at 6:49:34 AM permalink
vote in the poll if you would take the over or the under at even money

Scenario: 50,000,000 in the US get Covid-19 and 2% die = one million deaths

Scenario: 100,000,000 in the US get it and 1% die = ditto

pessimistic basis: so far in the US we hear we are at 3% death rate , so 2% isn't crazy. An estimated 34 million have caught the flu so far this season and it's easy to suspect that will reach 50 million or close to it. If covid-19 is easier to catch than the flu, or simply will spread more due to the population having built up no resistance, then it won't have to be 2% anymore.

optimistic counter view: we'll contain the virus in the US and have the some death rate as currently claimed in South Korea, which I heard this morning they are saying is 0.48%
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
Mosca
Mosca
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March 9th, 2020 at 7:08:46 AM permalink
Under. It will be bad, but not 1,000,000 bad. Less than half that. My reasoning is that it will take more than a year to reach that level, but by then there will be a vaccine.
NO KILL I
Joeman
Joeman
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March 9th, 2020 at 8:02:22 AM permalink
I'm definitely taking the under here, though maybe I'm too much the optimist. I might even take under 1,000,000 worldwide with proper odds, if I were one to bet on such things. I actually thought your number was going to be for worldwide deaths, just looking at the title.
"Dealer has 'rock'... Pay 'paper!'"
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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March 9th, 2020 at 10:10:50 AM permalink
Quote: Joeman

I'm definitely taking the under here, though maybe I'm too much the optimist. I might even take under 1,000,000 worldwide with proper odds, if I were one to bet on such things. I actually thought your number was going to be for worldwide deaths, just looking at the title.

yeah, I suppose since China would not appear to be reaching anything like that , one million here is an outlier. So I suppose it's just an exercise in examining what is possible if it was treated like we treat the flu

or if some country, maybe not China, shows it can't contain it
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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March 9th, 2020 at 12:48:45 PM permalink
I'd put O/U in US on deaths officially attributed to Covid-19 in 2020 to 8,286. A little less than the flu this year.
And of those 8,286, I'd surmise 90+% of them had a life expectancy of less than 5 years without the infection.

Reminder..... 1,100 Africans died YESTERDAY from malaria. YESTERDAY.
gordonm888
gordonm888
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March 9th, 2020 at 1:45:51 PM permalink
DHS estimate - from a top medical adminstrator - projects a COVID-19 fatality rate of 0.1 - 1.0% in U.S.

Discussion I heard:
- Citizens in China are not reporting mild symptoms because of severe government measures being taken when an individual is discovered to be potentially sick
______ - some internet accounts, which may be unreliable, are that some sick people in China have been removed from their homes by the government and shot. Even the rumor of that is going to severely depress the rate at which individuals raise their hands and say "I may be sick."
______ - widespread accounts of recovered patients in China still being quarantined and not allow to rejoin their families.

- Iran and parts of China are closer to third world countries when it comes to hygiene and public medical services.

**********************************************************************
So many better men, a few of them friends, were dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things lived on, and so did I.
TumblingBones
TumblingBones
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March 9th, 2020 at 2:05:54 PM permalink
As far as what is going on in China, here's a pretty good post from an American in Shanghai that's worth checking out.
As to the O/U, I need to give this some more analysis but my hunch is way higher than Soopoo's estimate. I know he's the MD here but it just doesn't jibe with what the stats seem to point to. FWIW, I was taking to an MD 3 days ago who had just read a report that they are expecting all hospital facilities to be at 100% full capacity by the end of the summer.
My goal of being well informed conflicts with my goal of remaining sane.
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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March 9th, 2020 at 2:16:25 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

I'd put O/U in US on deaths officially attributed to Covid-19 in 2020 to 8,286...


8286/1% = 828600 ill assuming 1% death rate, vs 10s of millions who got the flu, so this would mean a very well contained virus

I hope you are right
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
Ace2
Ace2
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March 9th, 2020 at 2:50:00 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

I'd put O/U in US on deaths officially attributed to Covid-19 in 2020 to 8,286. A little less than the flu this year.
And of those 8,286, I'd surmise 90+% of them had a life expectancy of less than 5 years without the infection.

Reminder..... 1,100 Africans died YESTERDAY from malaria. YESTERDAY.

I also like to put numbers in context. To a layman like me, what’s concerning about the virus so far isn’t the number of cases...it’s the speed by which it spreads in affected zones. In Italy they’ve gone from 1 death on Feb-21 to 366 deaths on Mar-8. That’s an average 45% increase per day, and anyone on this forum knows that 45% daily growth turns into infinity (effectively) very quickly
It’s all about making that GTA
Deucekies
Deucekies
Joined: Jan 20, 2014
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Thanks for this post from:
beachbumbabs
March 9th, 2020 at 3:17:27 PM permalink
I will not wager on people dying, even hypothetically.
Casinos are not your friends, they want your money. But so does Disneyland. And there is no chance in hell that you will go to Disneyland and come back with more money than you went with. - AxelWolf and Mickeycrimm

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