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odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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March 9th, 2020 at 6:49:34 AM permalink
vote in the poll if you would take the over or the under at even money

Scenario: 50,000,000 in the US get Covid-19 and 2% die = one million deaths

Scenario: 100,000,000 in the US get it and 1% die = ditto

pessimistic basis: so far in the US we hear we are at 3% death rate , so 2% isn't crazy. An estimated 34 million have caught the flu so far this season and it's easy to suspect that will reach 50 million or close to it. If covid-19 is easier to catch than the flu, or simply will spread more due to the population having built up no resistance, then it won't have to be 2% anymore.

optimistic counter view: we'll contain the virus in the US and have the some death rate as currently claimed in South Korea, which I heard this morning they are saying is 0.48%
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
Mosca
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March 9th, 2020 at 7:08:46 AM permalink
Under. It will be bad, but not 1,000,000 bad. Less than half that. My reasoning is that it will take more than a year to reach that level, but by then there will be a vaccine.
A falling knife has no handle.
Joeman
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March 9th, 2020 at 8:02:22 AM permalink
I'm definitely taking the under here, though maybe I'm too much the optimist. I might even take under 1,000,000 worldwide with proper odds, if I were one to bet on such things. I actually thought your number was going to be for worldwide deaths, just looking at the title.
"Dealer has 'rock'... Pay 'paper!'"
odiousgambit
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March 9th, 2020 at 10:10:50 AM permalink
Quote: Joeman

I'm definitely taking the under here, though maybe I'm too much the optimist. I might even take under 1,000,000 worldwide with proper odds, if I were one to bet on such things. I actually thought your number was going to be for worldwide deaths, just looking at the title.

yeah, I suppose since China would not appear to be reaching anything like that , one million here is an outlier. So I suppose it's just an exercise in examining what is possible if it was treated like we treat the flu

or if some country, maybe not China, shows it can't contain it
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
SOOPOO
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March 9th, 2020 at 12:48:45 PM permalink
I'd put O/U in US on deaths officially attributed to Covid-19 in 2020 to 8,286. A little less than the flu this year.
And of those 8,286, I'd surmise 90+% of them had a life expectancy of less than 5 years without the infection.

Reminder..... 1,100 Africans died YESTERDAY from malaria. YESTERDAY.
gordonm888
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March 9th, 2020 at 1:45:51 PM permalink
DHS estimate - from a top medical adminstrator - projects a COVID-19 fatality rate of 0.1 - 1.0% in U.S.

Discussion I heard:
- Citizens in China are not reporting mild symptoms because of severe government measures being taken when an individual is discovered to be potentially sick
______ - some internet accounts, which may be unreliable, are that some sick people in China have been removed from their homes by the government and shot. Even the rumor of that is going to severely depress the rate at which individuals raise their hands and say "I may be sick."
______ - widespread accounts of recovered patients in China still being quarantined and not allow to rejoin their families.

- Iran and parts of China are closer to third world countries when it comes to hygiene and public medical services.

**********************************************************************
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
TumblingBones
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March 9th, 2020 at 2:05:54 PM permalink
As far as what is going on in China, here's a pretty good post from an American in Shanghai that's worth checking out.
As to the O/U, I need to give this some more analysis but my hunch is way higher than Soopoo's estimate. I know he's the MD here but it just doesn't jibe with what the stats seem to point to. FWIW, I was taking to an MD 3 days ago who had just read a report that they are expecting all hospital facilities to be at 100% full capacity by the end of the summer.
My goal of being well informed conflicts with my goal of remaining sane.
odiousgambit
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March 9th, 2020 at 2:16:25 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

I'd put O/U in US on deaths officially attributed to Covid-19 in 2020 to 8,286...


8286/1% = 828600 ill assuming 1% death rate, vs 10s of millions who got the flu, so this would mean a very well contained virus

I hope you are right
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
Ace2
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March 9th, 2020 at 2:50:00 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

I'd put O/U in US on deaths officially attributed to Covid-19 in 2020 to 8,286. A little less than the flu this year.
And of those 8,286, I'd surmise 90+% of them had a life expectancy of less than 5 years without the infection.

Reminder..... 1,100 Africans died YESTERDAY from malaria. YESTERDAY.

I also like to put numbers in context. To a layman like me, what’s concerning about the virus so far isn’t the number of cases...it’s the speed by which it spreads in affected zones. In Italy they’ve gone from 1 death on Feb-21 to 366 deaths on Mar-8. That’s an average 45% increase per day, and anyone on this forum knows that 45% daily growth turns into infinity (effectively) very quickly
It’s all about making that GTA
Deucekies
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beachbumbabs
March 9th, 2020 at 3:17:27 PM permalink
I will not wager on people dying, even hypothetically.
Casinos are not your friends, they want your money. But so does Disneyland. And there is no chance in hell that you will go to Disneyland and come back with more money than you went with. - AxelWolf and Mickeycrimm
tringlomane
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March 9th, 2020 at 3:30:13 PM permalink
Quote: Ace2

I also like to put numbers in context. To a layman like me, what’s concerning about the virus so far isn’t the number of cases...it’s the speed by which it spreads in affected zones. In Italy they’ve gone from 1 death on Feb-21 to 366 deaths on Mar-8. That’s an average 45% increase per day, and anyone on this forum knows that 45% daily growth turns into infinity (effectively) very quickly



Yes, but at some point it will peak. Even if the entire world caught it and the death rate ends up being 1%, 99% of us will still be alive and kicking.
TumblingBones
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odiousgambit
March 9th, 2020 at 3:31:44 PM permalink
Quote: Deucekies

I will not wager on people dying, even hypothetically.


I don't think the OP or anyone else is actually proposing a wager. I'm taking the question as a framework for assessing the situation and making a well-reasoned decision about what one should plan for over the next few months.
My goal of being well informed conflicts with my goal of remaining sane.
darkoz
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March 9th, 2020 at 3:33:05 PM permalink
I was in a casino when the fire alarm started going off.

Not one person even paused their gambling activities

If Coronavirus hits a casino wonder how many gamblers would care
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
AxelWolf
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odiousgambit
March 9th, 2020 at 4:02:28 PM permalink
Quote: Deucekies

I will not wager on people dying, even hypothetically.

But you don't have to wager on them dying, if you take the under you are wagering on and rooting for them them living.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
LuckyPhow
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March 9th, 2020 at 4:44:12 PM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

Quote: Joeman

I'm definitely taking the under here,,, or if some country, maybe not China, shows it can't contain it



I won't bet on how many die. Younger folk seem to survive well; older folk, not so well.

My concern is whether we can contain it. The long latency period -- where infected persons can nevertheless infect others even while having no symptoms themselves -- is a ticking CovID-19 time bomb. I'm not sure we can contain it, even with state and national leaders self-secluding themselves as visible models.

Don't forget the economic consequences as fewer folk eat out. (True, maybe, LOTS more home delivery!) Less going to crowded places generally, where people usually spend money. Struggling companies may fail, increasing unemployment. Business activity would not have to fall far for its effects to be noticed.

I don't know whether what Italy is doing (quarantining whole province/states) is required. But, if it is, I doubt Americans would obey because their financial situation (regardless of their personal health) cannot survive a hit from the economic fallout. Too many get no paycheck during the 14 days the family self-quarantines. Younger folk, often with less-secure employment, may feel this more than the still-employed older folk.

We'll have a much clearer picture in another week or two, don'cher think?
bobbartop
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beachbumbabs
March 9th, 2020 at 8:52:26 PM permalink
Quote: Deucekies

I will not wager on people dying, even hypothetically.



This is a sick thread. Wtf's wrong with you guys? A few months from now and a few of your closest loved ones are dead, will you be thinking about this stupid over/under bullsh*t? Leave that for football. These are PEOPLE. We're talking about PEOPLE. Sheesh.
'Emergencies' have always been the pretext on which the safeguards of individual liberty have been eroded.
Ace2
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March 9th, 2020 at 9:06:35 PM permalink
Quote: bobbartop

This is a sick thread. Wtf's wrong with you guys? A few months from now and a few of your closest loved ones are dead, will you be thinking about this stupid over/under bullsh*t? Leave that for football. These are PEOPLE. We're talking about PEOPLE. Sheesh.

Has someone written something offensive here? We are just offering opinions on how much damage the virus might cause
It’s all about making that GTA
bobbartop
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March 9th, 2020 at 9:20:34 PM permalink
Quote: Ace2

Has someone written something offensive here?




Have I?
'Emergencies' have always been the pretext on which the safeguards of individual liberty have been eroded.
LuckyPhow
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March 10th, 2020 at 6:00:03 AM permalink
Quote: bobbartop

This is a sick thread. Wtf's wrong with you guys? A few months from now ... will you be thinking about this stupid over/under bull?



I understand your point. I fear a few months from now many will be asking themselves, "Will we EVER get this virus pandemic under control?"

I'm willing to hope for the best in a few months ("everything CovID-19 is behind us now"). However, I encourage everyone to plan for the worst, possibly including a much longer period of widespread disruption.

While I may sound like Typhoid Mary, I'm a gambler... a rock-steady optimist. But, this ain't my first rodeo. The deeper I dig, the scarier it looks to me.
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