Poll

5 votes (25%)
8 votes (40%)
2 votes (10%)
5 votes (25%)
No votes (0%)
No votes (0%)
No votes (0%)
No votes (0%)
No votes (0%)
No votes (0%)

20 members have voted

gordonm888
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gordonm888
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July 21st, 2015 at 5:25:36 PM permalink
Okay, perform whatever mathematical probability calculations you care to and predict who will be the Republican nominee for president in 2016.

We will check back in 2016 to see who was correct, so give us your best prediction!
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
EvenBob
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July 22nd, 2015 at 1:02:32 AM permalink
Really? Another 2016 thread? How many
is that now.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
rxwine
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July 22nd, 2015 at 1:49:03 AM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Really? Another 2016 thread? How many
is that now.



Probably mostly for the poll, however if someone makes a provocative statement, it could end up 2000 pages.
There's no secret. Just know what you're talking about before you open your mouth.
Ibeatyouraces
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July 22nd, 2015 at 6:56:35 AM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Really? Another 2016 thread? How many
is that now.


Get ready for the infinite number of "2020" threads next year.
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
gordonm888
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July 22nd, 2015 at 8:58:31 AM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Really? Another 2016 thread? How many
is that now.



I wanted to poll the forum, and I had no other option than doing it by creating a new thread.

In a forum where "16 vs. 10" gets a different thread than "12 vs. 3," I don't understand why EvenBob puts on his "Thread Police Badge." Politics and the presidential elections is a big deal with vast and profound consequences and merits more than one infinitely-long thread. We could be choosing between Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders. I mean, if the end of the world was approaching, would you insist that comments be limited to one thread?
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
texasplumr
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July 22nd, 2015 at 10:12:25 AM permalink
In another forum I frequent, the same question was asked. Over 50% said Trump and I was surprised. Looking at the poll it seems that many here think The Donald has a chance too. That's still surprising to me. Scott Walker I kind of get.

With so many competing for the Republican nomination would it surprise you to see a split ticket? I wouldn't be surprised to see one of the candidates who did well and had good support get pissed when he doesn't get the nomination and run on a third ticket. Like Ted Cruz running on the Tea Party ticket. He certainly has a big enough ego to do that. And he could easily drag Rick Perry off to run with him. Perry has made no secret of his love for the Tea Party. He spoke at all of their rallies here in Texas.

To me, that would seem like a death sentence to both. Split the ticket and swear in another Democrat.

Just my thoughts, I could be wrong.
Stupid is a choice
Gabes22
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July 22nd, 2015 at 12:08:25 PM permalink
Quote: texasplumr

In another forum I frequent, the same question was asked. Over 50% said Trump and I was surprised. Looking at the poll it seems that many here think The Donald has a chance too. That's still surprising to me. Scott Walker I kind of get.

With so many competing for the Republican nomination would it surprise you to see a split ticket? I wouldn't be surprised to see one of the candidates who did well and had good support get pissed when he doesn't get the nomination and run on a third ticket. Like Ted Cruz running on the Tea Party ticket. He certainly has a big enough ego to do that. And he could easily drag Rick Perry off to run with him. Perry has made no secret of his love for the Tea Party. He spoke at all of their rallies here in Texas.

To me, that would seem like a death sentence to both. Split the ticket and swear in another Democrat.

Just my thoughts, I could be wrong.


It would surprise me, once the first primary hits and the results are in many of the 15 or 16 or whatever amount it is, I've lost count will be whittled to like 5-6 and after then next few it will be whittled to 2-3
A flute with no holes is not a flute, a donut with no holes is a danish
AZDuffman
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July 22nd, 2015 at 12:24:52 PM permalink
Quote: Gabes22

It would surprise me, once the first primary hits and the results are in many of the 15 or 16 or whatever amount it is, I've lost count will be whittled to like 5-6 and after then next few it will be whittled to 2-3



The current crop will likely not all even make IA. A few will drop out before that. This is not uncommon, though to have 15 qualified candidates is unusually large.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
TwoFeathersATL
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July 22nd, 2015 at 1:01:44 PM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman

The current crop will likely not all even make IA. A few will drop out before that. This is not uncommon, though to have 15 qualified candidates is unusually large.


Could it be that so many people are are really so pissed off?
How much does it cost for me to declare my candidacy?
Youuuuuu MIGHT be a 'rascal' if.......(nevermind ;-)...2F
TwoFeathersATL
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July 22nd, 2015 at 1:05:31 PM permalink
I'm thinking about betting.
Maybe Walker/Cruz. Lord help us all, would that be cool?
Where do I place my wager?
Youuuuuu MIGHT be a 'rascal' if.......(nevermind ;-)...2F
rxwine
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July 22nd, 2015 at 1:13:53 PM permalink
Quote: TwoFeathersATL

I'm thinking about betting.
Maybe Walker/Cruz. Lord help us all, would that be cool?
Where do I place my wager?



If Walker picks up Cruz as vice he might as well shoot himself in the foot now. He'll never win the general election with that ticket.
There's no secret. Just know what you're talking about before you open your mouth.
terapined
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July 22nd, 2015 at 2:11:42 PM permalink
Quote: TwoFeathersATL

I'm thinking about betting.
Maybe Walker/Cruz. Lord help us all, would that be cool?
Where do I place my wager?



I'll take that wager, how much do you want to bet?
Totally serious.
Axelwolf , Mosca and the Wiz will vouch for my honesty in resolving bets. I've lost to them :-(
Its just a forum. Nothing here to get obsessed about.
harvson3
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July 22nd, 2015 at 2:34:51 PM permalink
I tend to agree with Sam Wang here (though I disagree with him on other matters). It won't be Trump.
http://www.newrepublic.com/article/122333/donald-trump-not-frontrunner-smarter-polls-would-prove-it
TwoFeathersATL
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July 22nd, 2015 at 5:00:46 PM permalink
Quote: terapined

I'll take that wager, how much do you want to bet?
Totally serious.
Axelwolf , Mosca and the Wiz will vouch for my honesty in resolving bets. I've lost to them :-(


I still don't know where to place wagers, sorry I just don't.
Walker/ Cruz would have to come with really BIG odds. So would any other ticket at this point.
Truthfully, I wish the primaries were two weeks from now, and the general 4 weeks from that.
Especially if the new winner took office 4 weeks after that.
But alas, we have the current administration for another 20 months or so.
God Bless America, and the rest of the world as well, we need the help.
Youuuuuu MIGHT be a 'rascal' if.......(nevermind ;-)...2F
AZDuffman
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July 22nd, 2015 at 5:01:11 PM permalink
Quote: TwoFeathersATL

Could it be that so many people are are really so pissed off?
How much does it cost for me to declare my candidacy?



People want leadership in the USA. Many of us are tired of the same old. Jeb is same old.

What is also happening is the GOP is cycling. 2008 cleaned out the old and since then the new has been bubbling up. Now there is a huge field to pick from, unlike the Dems who have nobody so Hillary is in the lead there. Talk about same old.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
beachbumbabs
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July 22nd, 2015 at 5:23:23 PM permalink
Quote: TwoFeathersATL

I still don't know where to place wagers, sorry I just don't.
Walker/ Cruz would have to come with really BIG odds. So would any other ticket at this point.
Truthfully, I wish the primaries were two weeks from now, and the general 4 weeks from that.
Especially if the new winner took office 4 weeks after that.
But alas, we have the current administration for another 20 months or so.
God Bless America, and the rest of the world as well, we need the help.



Well, we could have a betting pool with people having to name the nominee and his/her running mate, I guess. Not that I know how to structure such a thing.

Wm Hill out of England takes odds on our Presidential race futures, just like horse racing. I would have to assume the handicappers follow such things with some experience and authority, since they're putting money up on it. I, FWIW, voted Jeb Bush in the poll before looking this up, so would likely bet on him except I think Hillary's going to win the General. Could not search the site, but did not see a separate odds listing for nominee by party, or running mates.

The latest (July 22) below, transcribed (rather than pasted - sorry in advance for any typos) since the site is blacked out to my US IP. A PITA to do that, but seemed interesting to note where things are at this point in the proceedings:

Hillary Clinton: EVS
Jeb Bush: 7/2
Marco Rubio: 7/1
Scott Walker: 10/1
Bernie Sanders: 12/1
Mike Huckabee: 22/1
Donald Trump: 25/1
John Kasich: 25/1
Rand Paul: 25/1
Carly Fiorina: 33/1
Elizabeth Warren: 33/1
Joe Biden: 40/1
Ben Carson: 50/1
Bob McDonnell: 50/1
Cory Booker: 50/1
Deval Patrick: 50/1
Mark Warner: 50/1
Chris Christie: 50/1
Martin O'Malley: 50/1
Lindsay Graham: 66/1
Ted Cruz: 66/1
Jim Webb: 80/1
Andrew Cuomo: 100/1
Condoleeza Rice: 100/1
Eric Cantor: 100/1
George Pataki: 100/1
Jon Huntsman: 100/1
Julian Castro: 100/1
Kristin Gillibrand: 100/1
Lincoln Chaffee: 100/1
Michael Bloomberg: 100/1
Paul Ryan: 100/1
Rahm Emmanuel: 100/1
Rick Perry: 100/1
Rick Santorum: 100/1
Sarah Palin: 100/1
Susanne Martinez: 100/1
Tim Kaine: 100/1

Dem Prez pays 8/11, Rep Prez pays 11/10, Ind Prez pays 40/1.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
JohnnyQ
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July 22nd, 2015 at 7:04:39 PM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs


John Kasich: 25/1


Just saw an article with this lead-in:

"Ohio Governor John Kasich, who on Tuesday became the latest and perhaps last major Republican figure to enter the presidential race, may well be the Democratic Party's worst nightmare."

Bloomberg
There's emptiness behind their eyes There's dust in all their hearts They just want to steal us all and take us all apart
terapined
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July 22nd, 2015 at 7:17:00 PM permalink
Quote: JohnnyQ

Just saw an article with this lead-in:

"Ohio Governor John Kasich, who on Tuesday became the latest and perhaps last major Republican figure to enter the presidential race, may well be the Democratic Party's worst nightmare."

Bloomberg



He's kind of a knucklehead
He hated the movie Fargo so much, He demanded that Blockbuster take it off their shelves.
Kind of a kook.
Kept on calling and hassasing the employees to take it off the shelf.
Yea Fargo has some violence but to harrass blockbuster employees, sheesh
Guy is a flake.

From the man himself
"On reflection," Kasich wrote, he wasn't "entirely sure that [this story] paints me in the best light," and admitted, "In fact, it’s possible to look on my actions as the rantings of a wild man." He concluded:

http://www.vox.com/2015/7/21/9010095/john-kasich-fargo

I think Fargo is a masterpiece.
Love just about every Coen brothers movie.
Its just a forum. Nothing here to get obsessed about.
gordonm888
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gordonm888
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July 22nd, 2015 at 11:55:40 PM permalink
Quote: Gabes22

It would surprise me, once the first primary hits and the results are in many of the 15 or 16 or whatever amount it is, I've lost count will be whittled to like 5-6 and after then next few it will be whittled to 2-3



Now that John Kasich has announced, its 16. In addition to the 9 candidates listed in the Poll, there is Kasich, Rick Santorum, Lindsey Graham, Carly Fiorina, George Pataki, Mike Huckabee and Bobby Jindall.

None of us have ever seen anything like this. For a debate, they would need a set-up like Hollywood Squares to get so many on a stage.

Bobby Jindall is so obscure, he isn't even listed in the table that Babs posted -and that table included Sarah Palin, OMG.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
beachbumbabs
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July 23rd, 2015 at 12:55:18 AM permalink
Quote: gordonm888

Now that Dennis Kasich has announced, its 16. In addition to the 9 candidates listed in the Poll, there is Kasich, Rick Santorum, Lindsey Graham, Carly Fiorina, George Pataki, Mike Huckabee and Bobby Jindall.

None of us have ever seen anything like this. For a debate, they would need a set-up like Hollywood Squares to get so many on a stage.

Bobby Jindall is so obscure, he isn't even listed in the table that Babs posted -and that table included Sarah Palin, OMG.



Ya know, I went back to the website to try and see, and you're right, Jindall isn't among them (thought I typo'd). However, if you scroll down, you can see he's among the Rep. nominees at 80/1. Google it (William Hill US President); I'm not going to try and provide the URL because of the IP blocker, which displays your (my) IP address, but the page (greyed out but readable) is behind the warning; change your window size to get the warning out of the way, and scroll down.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
beachbumbabs
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July 23rd, 2015 at 1:00:20 AM permalink
FWIW, the guys I might consider voting for among the Rep's announced: Chris Christie, John Kasich.

I gotta tell you, Jeb Bush, as our Governor, made some seriously flawed and questionable decisions. I could not vote for him for Prez. Google Terry Schiavo and his interference in her right to die, his wife the customs cheat, or even his role in the 2000 election and securing the state for his brother. Look at Common Core, his record as a realtor and the inside baseball he brought to the legislature, and some of his pandering to big business (Big Sugar, developers, others) in the state. Not a record to be proud of.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
AZDuffman
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July 23rd, 2015 at 3:29:13 AM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

FWIW, the guys I might consider voting for among the Rep's announced: Chris Christie, John Kasich.

I gotta tell you, Jeb Bush, as our Governor, made some seriously flawed and questionable decisions. I could not vote for him for Prez. Google Terry Schiavo and his interference in her right to die, his wife the customs cheat, or even his role in the 2000 election and securing the state for his brother. Look at Common Core, his record as a realtor and the inside baseball he brought to the legislature, and some of his pandering to big business (Big Sugar, developers, others) in the state. Not a record to be proud of.



His role in the 2000 election? You mean his stopping Gore from stealing an election?
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
Joeman
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July 23rd, 2015 at 5:34:53 AM permalink
Quote: gordonm888

For a debate, they would need a set-up like Hollywood Squares to get so many on a stage.

The mental image of all 16 candidates in a 4 X 4 tower just made me LOL!

I can just see it now, two moderators as contestants... "I'll take Rick Santorum for the block!"

Hey, Tom Bergeron just stepped down from AFV. I wonder if he would want his old gig back as host? ;)
"Dealer has 'rock'... Pay 'paper!'"
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