Mathy, sportsy topic
April 17th, 2015 at 7:51:50 AM
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I was considering the unlucky odds that this would happen.
We're going to Pittsburgh for a couple Pirates games. The Bucs have a good team this year, with some good pitching: the rotation is Liriano, Cole, Burnett, Locke, and Worley. The first three, there's a pretty good chance that they'll throw a "gem". The last two, well, they are capable, but it's about 50/50 that they'll get knocked out in the 3rd inning as it is that they'll go 7 and give up less than 3 runs.
We picked the games before the season started, and I figured that if we see two games consecutively, there would be an 80% chance that we'd see at least one of the top three, a 40% chance that we'd see two of the top three, and only a 20% chance that we'd see Locke and Worley. ("At least one" overlaps with two.) And originally, the way the schedule worked, we were going to see Worley, then Liriano.
Then last week, Liriano missed his start for paternity leave, the Pirates brought up Sadler to take his place, and everyone got pushed back one game, and now unless there is a rainout during the Brewers series, we're seeing Locke and Worley. Son of a bitch.
I really like Worley, I'm just realistic about his talents. And Locke has pitched over his head his whole career, so anything can happen. But I really wanted to see one of the top guys.
On the plus side, the Cubs are bringing up one of the most exciting young players in the minors, Kris Bryant. That will be fun.
We're going to Pittsburgh for a couple Pirates games. The Bucs have a good team this year, with some good pitching: the rotation is Liriano, Cole, Burnett, Locke, and Worley. The first three, there's a pretty good chance that they'll throw a "gem". The last two, well, they are capable, but it's about 50/50 that they'll get knocked out in the 3rd inning as it is that they'll go 7 and give up less than 3 runs.
We picked the games before the season started, and I figured that if we see two games consecutively, there would be an 80% chance that we'd see at least one of the top three, a 40% chance that we'd see two of the top three, and only a 20% chance that we'd see Locke and Worley. ("At least one" overlaps with two.) And originally, the way the schedule worked, we were going to see Worley, then Liriano.
Then last week, Liriano missed his start for paternity leave, the Pirates brought up Sadler to take his place, and everyone got pushed back one game, and now unless there is a rainout during the Brewers series, we're seeing Locke and Worley. Son of a bitch.
I really like Worley, I'm just realistic about his talents. And Locke has pitched over his head his whole career, so anything can happen. But I really wanted to see one of the top guys.
On the plus side, the Cubs are bringing up one of the most exciting young players in the minors, Kris Bryant. That will be fun.
A falling knife has no handle.
April 21st, 2015 at 10:27:37 PM
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The last time the Pirates had any starting pitcher start at least 20% of the teams games was 2006. Despite a so-called "five-man rotation," teams will use far more pitchers in that role. Last year the team gave starts to eight different pitchers. The year before that it was 12. Even if Locke and Worley aren't among the team aces, they are a lot better than Wandy Rodriguez
