Alan
Alan
Joined: Jun 14, 2011
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December 16th, 2013 at 7:45:15 AM permalink
This is awesome, such a long shot, but the bettors(contestants) win.

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/12/16/car-dealership-paying-out-420000-after-seahawks-shutout/
DJTeddyBear
DJTeddyBear
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December 16th, 2013 at 7:55:05 AM permalink
Nope.

It cost an INSURANCE COMPANY that much.

It cost the car dealership only $7,000.
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ 覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧 Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
Mission146
Mission146
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December 16th, 2013 at 8:00:48 AM permalink
It's a good thing they took out insurance, $7,000, it said. That's $7,000 not to pay $420,000, which is effectively a potential savings of $413,000. The insurance company basically laid 58:1 against a shutout, so I think the car dealership probably had the best of that one.

I believe that roughly 2% of NFL games involve a shutout in the first place, now throw in that the Giants have the NFC's worst performing offense, and second or third worst in the NFL combined with the Seattle defense now being the stingiest in the NFL and second or third going into the week.

I have to kind of scoff at the insurance company that they would make such a terrible lay. PMing the Wizard to see if he agrees with me. I think a fair lay would have been about 40:1.
Vultures can't be choosers.
Wizard
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Wizard
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December 16th, 2013 at 8:16:15 AM permalink
I see from the week 15 contest lines that the Giants were a 7-point underdog and the over/under was 41. Doing a little algebra the expected points for each team would have been Giants 17 -- Seattle 24. Let me do number crunching to get at a fair price for that insurance policy...
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Zcore13
Zcore13
Joined: Nov 30, 2009
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December 16th, 2013 at 9:20:20 AM permalink
Quote: Mission146

It's a good thing they took out insurance, $7,000, it said. That's $7,000 not to pay $420,000, which is effectively a potential savings of $413,000. The insurance company basically laid 58:1 against a shutout, so I think the car dealership probably had the best of that one.

I believe that roughly 2% of NFL games involve a shutout in the first place, now throw in that the Giants have the NFC's worst performing offense, and second or third worst in the NFL combined with the Seattle defense now being the stingiest in the NFL and second or third going into the week.

I have to kind of scoff at the insurance company that they would make such a terrible lay. PMing the Wizard to see if he agrees with me. I think a fair lay would have been about 40:1.



Trust me when I tell you the Insurance Company wins on these "wagers" also. I was in the Insurance business for 13 years. Insurance Companies provide this type of insurance for all sorts of events. Hole in one golf events, half time half court shots, etc, etc. They always win in the long run, just as Casinos always win in the long run. Someone eventually wins and most of the time everyone loses.


ZCore13
I am an employee of a Casino. Former Table Games Director,, current Pit Supervisor. All the personal opinions I post are my own and do not represent the opinions of the Casino or Tribe that I work for.
98Clubs
98Clubs
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December 16th, 2013 at 9:23:15 AM permalink
The last shut-out of the Giants at home was Jan. 8th 2005 by Carolina in the Playoffs (Score was 23-0).
Some people need to reimagine their thinking.
Wizard
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Wizard
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December 16th, 2013 at 9:45:12 AM permalink
The following table shows how often a team scored zero point according to the estimated number of points it would score, based on the point spread and total. Data is based on the 1983 to 2012 seasons, inclusive.


Estimated Points Number in Sample Total Zero Points Ratio
10 10 1 10.0%
10.25 7 0 0.0%
10.5 14 2 14.3%
10.75 7 1 14.3%
11 13 1 7.7%
11.25 21 1 4.8%
11.5 22 3 13.6%
11.75 23 1 4.3%
12 34 2 5.9%
12.25 36 7 19.4%
12.5 41 3 7.3%
12.75 39 4 10.3%
13 55 1 1.8%
13.25 58 5 8.6%
13.5 78 1 1.3%
13.75 89 5 5.6%
14 92 4 4.3%
14.25 108 7 6.5%
14.5 117 8 6.8%
14.75 141 7 5.0%
15 160 7 4.4%
15.25 160 7 4.4%
15.5 213 7 3.3%
15.75 198 11 5.6%
16 206 6 2.9%
16.25 221 12 5.4%
16.5 241 10 4.1%
16.75 273 7 2.6%
17 306 8 2.6%
17.25 305 8 2.6%
17.5 306 10 3.3%
17.75 323 4 1.2%
18 299 8 2.7%
18.25 332 8 2.4%
18.5 309 9 2.9%
18.75 307 7 2.3%
19 356 8 2.2%
19.25 389 5 1.3%
19.5 361 5 1.4%
19.75 343 6 1.7%
20 402 8 2.0%
20.25 379 6 1.6%
20.5 359 3 0.8%
20.75 353 5 1.4%
21 344 1 0.3%
21.25 317 3 0.9%
21.5 341 2 0.6%
21.75 331 1 0.3%
22 369 1 0.3%
22.25 336 0 0.0%
22.5 316 2 0.6%
22.75 280 3 1.1%
23 311 1 0.3%
23.25 290 3 1.0%
23.5 279 1 0.4%
23.75 255 1 0.4%
24 246 1 0.4%
24.25 219 0 0.0%
24.5 230 2 0.9%
24.75 230 1 0.4%
25 212 2 0.9%
25.25 207 0 0.0%
25.5 176 1 0.6%
25.75 154 0 0.0%
26 154 1 0.6%
26.25 113 0 0.0%
26.5 137 0 0.0%
26.75 122 0 0.0%
27 95 0 0.0%
27.25 98 0 0.0%
27.5 83 0 0.0%
27.75 81 0 0.0%
28 82 0 0.0%
28.25 55 1 1.8%
28.5 56 0 0.0%
28.75 51 0 0.0%
29 48 0 0.0%
29.25 34 0 0.0%
29.5 24 0 0.0%
29.75 25 0 0.0%
30 24 0 0.0%


Overall, a team will score zero points 1.79% of the time.

Using logistic regression, I find:

Probability zero points = exp(x)/(1+exp(x)),

where:

x = 1.562545 + -0.302485 * y
y = estimated points

As mentioned in my last post, the total in that game was 41, and the Seahawks were a 7-point favorite. Doing a little algebra we see the estimated points by the Giants is 17 and Seahawks is 24.

So, in this case y=17 and x = -3.579706.

The probability the Giants score zero points is thus exp(-3.579706)/(1+exp(-3.579706)) = 2.71%.

Given that the policy had a face value of 12 * $35,000 = $420,000, the fair cost should have been 2.71% * $420,000 = $11,384.

Thus, the dealership got a great bargain paying only $7,000! Normally, insurance companies that insure oddball stuff like this charge double the expected cost. In this case, I would have charged $22,768 for that policy.

If I were the mathematician that calculated that premium I'd be pretty nervous this morning, hoping the boss doesn't review the math, which he probably will considering he will have to write a check for $420,000.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
speedycrap
speedycrap
Joined: Oct 13, 2013
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December 16th, 2013 at 9:52:24 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

The following table shows how often a team scored zero point according to the estimated number of points it would score, based on the point spread and total. Data is based on the 1983 to 2012 seasons, inclusive.


Estimated Points Number in Sample Total Zero Points Ratio
10 10 1 10.0%
10.25 7 0 0.0%
10.5 14 2 14.3%
10.75 7 1 14.3%
11 13 1 7.7%
11.25 21 1 4.8%
11.5 22 3 13.6%
11.75 23 1 4.3%
12 34 2 5.9%
12.25 36 7 19.4%
12.5 41 3 7.3%
12.75 39 4 10.3%
13 55 1 1.8%
13.25 58 5 8.6%
13.5 78 1 1.3%
13.75 89 5 5.6%
14 92 4 4.3%
14.25 108 7 6.5%
14.5 117 8 6.8%
14.75 141 7 5.0%
15 160 7 4.4%
15.25 160 7 4.4%
15.5 213 7 3.3%
15.75 198 11 5.6%
16 206 6 2.9%
16.25 221 12 5.4%
16.5 241 10 4.1%
16.75 273 7 2.6%
17 306 8 2.6%
17.25 305 8 2.6%
17.5 306 10 3.3%
17.75 323 4 1.2%
18 299 8 2.7%
18.25 332 8 2.4%
18.5 309 9 2.9%
18.75 307 7 2.3%
19 356 8 2.2%
19.25 389 5 1.3%
19.5 361 5 1.4%
19.75 343 6 1.7%
20 402 8 2.0%
20.25 379 6 1.6%
20.5 359 3 0.8%
20.75 353 5 1.4%
21 344 1 0.3%
21.25 317 3 0.9%
21.5 341 2 0.6%
21.75 331 1 0.3%
22 369 1 0.3%
22.25 336 0 0.0%
22.5 316 2 0.6%
22.75 280 3 1.1%
23 311 1 0.3%
23.25 290 3 1.0%
23.5 279 1 0.4%
23.75 255 1 0.4%
24 246 1 0.4%
24.25 219 0 0.0%
24.5 230 2 0.9%
24.75 230 1 0.4%
25 212 2 0.9%
25.25 207 0 0.0%
25.5 176 1 0.6%
25.75 154 0 0.0%
26 154 1 0.6%
26.25 113 0 0.0%
26.5 137 0 0.0%
26.75 122 0 0.0%
27 95 0 0.0%
27.25 98 0 0.0%
27.5 83 0 0.0%
27.75 81 0 0.0%
28 82 0 0.0%
28.25 55 1 1.8%
28.5 56 0 0.0%
28.75 51 0 0.0%
29 48 0 0.0%
29.25 34 0 0.0%
29.5 24 0 0.0%
29.75 25 0 0.0%
30 24 0 0.0%


Overall, a team will score zero points 1.79% of the time.

Using logistic regression, I find:

Probability zero points = exp(x)/(1+exp(x)),

where:

x = 1.562545 + -0.302485 * y
y = estimated points

As mentioned in my last post, the total in that game was 41, and the Seahawks were a 7-point favorite. Doing a little algebra we see the estimated points by the Giants is 17 and Seahawks is 24.

So, in this case y=17 and x = -3.579706.

The probability the Giants score zero points is thus exp(-3.579706)/(1+exp(-3.579706)) = 2.71%.

Given that the policy had a face value of 12 * $35,000 = $420,000, the fair cost should have been 2.71% * $420,000 = $11,384.

Thus, the dealership got a great bargain paying only $7,000! Normally, insurance companies that insure oddball stuff like this charge double the expected cost. In this case, I would have charged $22,768 for that policy.

If I were the mathematician that calculated that premium I'd be pretty nervous this morning, hoping the boss doesn't review the math, which he probably will considering he will have to write a check for $420,000.



Hope the BOSS does not see this!!!!!!!!!!!
FleaStiff
FleaStiff
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
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December 16th, 2013 at 10:01:30 AM permalink
Quote: DJTeddyBear

Nope.
It cost an INSURANCE COMPANY that much.
It cost the car dealership only $7,000.


Nope.... Insurance companies lay off their action in the re-insurance market. So one insurance company gets the publicity and is primary payor but other companies have to contribute.
Wizard
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Wizard
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December 16th, 2013 at 10:17:09 AM permalink
Quote: FleaStiff

Nope.... Insurance companies lay off their action in the re-insurance market. So one insurance company gets the publicity and is primary payor but other companies have to contribute.



This is getting out of my area, but I think insurance companies only lay off risk they are too small to assume. For example, a small insurance company might not be comfortable writing a 20-million dollar life insurance policy, so they re-insure it with a bigger insurance company. Anybody in the insurance business should be able to fork over $420,000 on their own. Not to mention that I doubt re-insurance companies dabble in promotional risks like this.

Quote:

Hope the BOSS does not see this!!!!!!!!!!!



If he does, I hope he'll keep me in mind if my income continues to decline, and I need to find a real job.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.

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