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Aussie
Aussie
Joined: Dec 29, 2009
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March 10th, 2010 at 3:57:59 AM permalink
That sounds good.
One point of clarification though, you dont automatically get your money back if the dividend on a runner is $1. That runner must still run top 3. So in effect you can lose but you cant win. In the incident, if both the favoured runners had missed the place he would have lost $130k. If one missed the place he would have won $20k and if neither missed the place (which is what happened) he would win $170k.
Wizard
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Wizard
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March 10th, 2010 at 6:45:07 AM permalink
Thanks. Did the tracks do anything to prevent this from happening again?
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
nyuhoosier
nyuhoosier
Joined: Feb 16, 2010
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March 10th, 2010 at 10:22:25 AM permalink
Anyone think Avatar got the shaft by not winning best director/best picture? The Hurt Locker is an important, well-made movie, but I think Avatar deserved to win on degree of difficulty. It's a ground-breaking, historic film -- more of an experience than a movie.
Wizard
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Wizard
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March 10th, 2010 at 11:00:24 AM permalink
Perhaps the Academy voters thought as I did that the special effects in Avatar were too over the top and self-important. It should be a story that carries the movie, and Avatar's story was nothing new. Dances with Wolves comes to mind. I didn't like The Hurt Locker much either. However, if forced between the two, I would have pinched my nose and voted for The Hurt Locker. As I've said before, I would have gladly taken District 9 or Up in the Air over both of them.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Croupier
Croupier
Joined: Nov 15, 2009
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March 10th, 2010 at 11:30:27 AM permalink
A friend of mine summed up Avatar as "The plight of the Native American people diluted into a love story, told by people with blue skin. And Dinosaurs."

It didnt really encourage me to see it.
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Aussie
Aussie
Joined: Dec 29, 2009
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March 10th, 2010 at 12:34:55 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Thanks. Did the tracks do anything to prevent this from happening again?



In Australia the parimutual pools are statewide anD run by listed companies with wagering rules based on govenment legislation. I believe they lobied and were successful in getting Some minor rule change passed by government to prevent it happening again.
Mosca
Mosca
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March 10th, 2010 at 3:13:22 PM permalink
Quote: nyuhoosier

Anyone think Avatar got the shaft by not winning best director/best picture? The Hurt Locker is an important, well-made movie, but I think Avatar deserved to win on degree of difficulty. It's a ground-breaking, historic film -- more of an experience than a movie.



Quote: Croupier

A friend of mine summed up Avatar as "The plight of the Native American people diluted into a love story, told by people with blue skin. And Dinosaurs."

It didnt really encourage me to see it.



Quote: Wizard

Perhaps the Academy voters thought as I did that the special effects in Avatar were too over the top and self-important. It should be a story that carries the movie, and Avatar's story was nothing new. Dances with Wolves comes to mind. I didn't like The Hurt Locker much either. However, if forced between the two, I would have pinched my nose and voted for The Hurt Locker. As I've said before, I would have gladly taken District 9 or Up in the Air over both of them.



I liked them both, but for different reasons, and I'm not sure I'd have given Best Picture to either. I agree with Wizard about Avatar, and that the story should carry the film first; but I still think it was one hell of a thrill ride, and excellent entertainment value for the visual appeal alone.

Regarding Hurt Locker, I had real empathy for the characters. Every now and then I come across a returning Iraq vet as a client, and I'm struck by how young many of them are. What I liked about the film was the way it got so close to the characters and the situations that nothing else mattered; the politics didn't matter, the battles didn't matter, nothing mattered but staying alive. At the same time, that was its weak point; it was so close to the characters that the story became sluggish and lost its way several times. How you reacted to that I think depends on how vested you became in the characters. But IMO a "Best Picture" winner shouldn't have that flaw, or really any flaws. I think The Hurt Locker won partly to stick it to Cameron, as a double entendre in the most literal way. I didn't see all the nominees this year, so I can't say which I'd choose; perhaps they were all flawed, and THL was flawed the least; I don't know.

I do know that if I'd lost any of those bets I'd have jumped off a bridge, or a parking garage. Yikes. Kudos, Wizard!
NO KILL I
reno
reno
Joined: Jan 20, 2010
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March 17th, 2010 at 8:47:51 AM permalink
Commandment #4 from The Ten Commandments of Gambling: Thou shalt trust the odds, not hunches.

It seems as though betting on the Oscars is entirely about hunches. At least with football and horse-racing, numerical values can be assigned to players, teams, horses, etc. Even if you study the Oscar odds at Intrade, you are still using your gut hunches, not math, to determine if the Intrade odds are reliable. How does one assign a numerical value to "Hollywood Buzz"?
Wizard
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Wizard
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March 17th, 2010 at 9:54:43 AM permalink
Quote: reno

Commandment #4 from The Ten Commandments of Gambling: Thou shalt trust the odds, not hunches.

It seems as though betting on the Oscars is entirely about hunches. At least with football and horse-racing, numerical values can be assigned to players, teams, horses, etc. Even if you study the Oscar odds at Intrade, you are still using your gut hunches, not math, to determine if the Intrade odds are reliable. How does one assign a numerical value to "Hollywood Buzz"?



I think historical odds and results would back me up by saying that the big favorites almost always win. I've been doing this several years, and the only upset I can think of is Crash beating Brokeback Mountain for best picture, and that was not a huge upset, about a 4 to 1 favorite. Meanwhile I have won every other bet out of about 40 made on the Oscars. I'll admit part of is based on hunches. For example, I just couldn't picture Jeff Bridges losing for best actor. Just ain't gonna happen.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.

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