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Wizard
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Wizard
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March 7th, 2010 at 5:21:54 PM permalink
It is that time of the year again, time to bet the favorites on the Academy Awards. I've never had a losing year doing this. My biggest loss was laying about 5 to 1 on Brokeback Mountain to win bet picture, which was upset by Crash. The money aside, I thought Brokeback was a much better movie. My theory is that for whatever reason, the winners are usually known in advance via the "Hollywood buzz." Betting on the huge favorites almost can't lose. Here are my bets for this year:

Best actor: J Bridges $4,708 to win $500
Best supporting actor: K Waltz $15,629 to win $500
Best supporting actress: Monique $9,115 to win $500
Best director: Bigelow $3,259 to win $500
Best art direction: Avatar $2,250 to win $500

They call bets like these "bridge jumpers," because if you lose, you're going to feel like jumping off a bridge. In the case of Vegas, a parking garage roof would have to do.

This is the first year I can remember where there wasn't a runaway favorite for best picture. According to the intrade the odds suggest the Hurt Locker has about a 53% chance of winning, and Avatar 41%, with other movies making up the rest. If forced to bet that one, I'd take the Hurt Locker, but I don't like it well enough to bet. For what it is worth, my vote would be for District 9, followed by Up in the Air.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Nareed
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March 7th, 2010 at 5:32:51 PM permalink
No Best Actress?
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
boymimbo
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March 7th, 2010 at 5:51:22 PM permalink
Up in the Air was a great movie. Avatar is certainly an epic whereas the Hurt Locker is a war film. So to me, the war film will prevail because of the politics in Hollywood. Plus, James Cameron has already won.
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Wizard
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Wizard
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March 7th, 2010 at 6:16:48 PM permalink
Sandra Bullock is about a 2 to 1 favorite to win best actress. I didn't bet it because she is up against Meryl Streep, who I just learned was nominated more times for Oscars than any other actress. That is another one besides best picture that could go either way.

I agree that Cameron cleaning up for Titanic will work against him this year. Lately the Oscars have tilted towards movies that were not big box office winners, which also works in The Hurt Lockers favor. Politics I don't think will play a big factor. If anything, that should favor Avatar.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
kenarman
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March 7th, 2010 at 9:07:22 PM permalink
Congrats on your wins 5 for 5. More guts than me laying about 10 to 1 overall.
Be careful when you follow the masses, the M is sometimes silent.
Doc
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March 7th, 2010 at 10:02:38 PM permalink
I guess that even if I had been fully informed on the competition, I would have been very hesitant to place a set of wagers where I would HAVE to go 5 for 5 or lose a bunch of money. Going even 4 for 5 would mean losing $250 to $13,629, if I understood those wagers correctly. Go 3 for 5 and you are in deep. Not my kind of game.
nyuhoosier
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March 7th, 2010 at 10:37:50 PM permalink
Do you know of any other bridge-jumpers available in Vegas? I was tempted by one a while back when you could bet that the winner of the Kentucky Derby would NOT go on to win the Triple Crown. I'm interested in betting some of these, but of course, it's only easy money until you lose one.
Wizard
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Wizard
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March 8th, 2010 at 3:58:44 AM permalink
Quote: Doc

I guess that even if I had been fully informed on the competition, I would have been very hesitant to place a set of wagers where I would HAVE to go 5 for 5 or lose a bunch of money. Going even 4 for 5 would mean losing $250 to $13,629, if I understood those wagers correctly. Go 3 for 5 and you are in deep. Not my kind of game.


It normally isn't mine either, but I strongly feel those bets almost couldn't lose. Like betting Obama against McCain in the last election -- the electoral math pretty much ensured he would win easily.

Quote: nyuhoosier

Do you know of any other bridge-jumpers available in Vegas? I was tempted by one a while back when you could bet that the winner of the Kentucky Derby would NOT go on to win the Triple Crown. I'm interested in betting some of these, but of course, it's only easy money until you lose one.



There are some good ones in the Super Bowl, like laying 10 to 1 against a safety. Of course, that one lost last calendar year (Pitt vs. Ariz.). However, the term mainly applies to horse racing, in particular betting a huge favorite in a 5-horse race to show. The least you can win is $0.10 on a $2 bet, so if the probability of winning is over 95.24%, it is a good bet. However, I'm not strong enough in horse racing to know when the probability is more than that. Perhaps someone else can jump in on that point.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
cclub79
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March 8th, 2010 at 4:23:34 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Quote: Doc

I guess that even if I had been fully informed on the competition, I would have been very hesitant to place a set of wagers where I would HAVE to go 5 for 5 or lose a bunch of money. Going even 4 for 5 would mean losing $250 to $13,629, if I understood those wagers correctly. Go 3 for 5 and you are in deep. Not my kind of game.


It normally isn't mine either, but I strongly feel those bets almost couldn't lose. Like betting Obama against McCain in the last election -- the electoral math pretty much ensured he would win easily.

Quote: nyuhoosier

Do you know of any other bridge-jumpers available in Vegas? I was tempted by one a while back when you could bet that the winner of the Kentucky Derby would NOT go on to win the Triple Crown. I'm interested in betting some of these, but of course, it's only easy money until you lose one.



There are some good ones in the Super Bowl, like laying 10 to 1 against a safety. Of course, that one lost last calendar year (Pitt vs. Ariz.). However, the term mainly applies to horse racing, in particular betting a huge favorite in a 5-horse race to show. The least you can win is $0.10 on a $2 bet, so if the probability of winning is over 95.24%, it is a good bet. However, I'm not strong enough in horse racing to know when the probability is more than that. Perhaps someone else can jump in on that point.



As a horse player, I can say that even in a 5 horse field, 95% certainty is tough because they are animals that could always have something happen that would cause a problem. They could also be bumped or have a problem that has nothing to do with their ability to win. I don't see a lot of horse players doing well bridge-jumping. It is interesting that when you have those massive favorites, sometimes they are being so heavily bet in the win and show pools, that the place pool gets overlooked and you can make money there. Also, you can reverse bridge jump: If you see the pool has a bridge-jumper in it, bet 2 bucks on the other 4 horses. I've seen the show pool pay hundreds of dollars because of the favorite not hitting the board. You see this

Slew's Tizzy 12.80 8.40 320.60
Galloping Grocer 9.60 393.80
Eric The Kidd 243.00


Off topic: my bro-in-law and I had a similar type bet about an extra point being missed in an NFL game. If you bet one game and lay 15 to 1, you might win, but if you bet all games in a weekend, you probably won't.
Wizard
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Wizard
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March 8th, 2010 at 11:31:38 AM permalink
This is getting off topic, but in the event a huge favorite does show, can the track take from the show pools on the other two horses to cover the 10 cents on the big favorite? For example, let's say the total show pool is $300,000, the take-out is 17%, and show bets on the three winning horses are divided as follows:

A 97%
B 2%
C 1%

How much would a $2 show ticket on each horse pay?
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.

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