Nuclear War/TEOTWAWKI Plans
Quote: EvenBobEverything would go back to animal, wind, and water power. Printing presses and newspapers. Cross cut saws and ox driven plows. Communication would be a bitch, though. Steam ships and steam locomotives and steam cars. Probably steam planes and blimps.
The fundamental point is that the human population went from roughly 200 million in the year 1 AD, to a billion around the year 1800. Without modern energy distribution what would happen to the present population of 7 billion? Over half the world lives in urban areas today, most of which would be giant death traps within a week without power.
Since presumably people won't die by the billions peacefully, what kind of civil insurrection or possibly full scale war would result.
In the build-up over the last thousand years, people gradually added wind and water power to run the gristmills of the day. They learned to ride horses, and built stables. Land ownership reflected thousands of people who were subsistence farming. There would be no pesticides, or modern farming techniques. What about the psychological effect on people. Most of the population in the developed world is much older than it was a hundred years ago. People routinely died of things that are easy medical problems today.
Quote: scireBOB; I sense the looters- after the stores are emptied would head out and find who was "growing"/planting and they'd hit the "farms"
So what? You're thinking in the very extreme short
term. The stores and farms would be looted immediately,
and law and order would soon be re-established. We
aren't savages, we'd still have police and jails. People
did live for 99.999999% of history without electricity,
you know, and got along quite nicely.
Quote: pacomartinThe fundamental point is that the human population went from roughly 200 million in the year 1 AD, to a billion around the year 1800. Without modern energy distribution what would happen to the present population of 7 billion? Over half the world lives in urban areas today, most of which would be giant death traps within a week without power.
Since presumably people won't die by the billions peacefully, what kind of civil insurrection or possibly full scale war would result.
In the build-up over the last thousand years, people gradually added wind and water power to run the gristmills of the day. They learned to ride horses, and built stables. Land ownership reflected thousands of people who were subsistence farming. There would be no pesticides, or modern farming techniques. What about the psychological effect on people. Most of the population in the developed world is much older than it was a hundred years ago. People routinely died of things that are easy medical problems today.
Exactly.
DAD: "Hey Wife! I had a great day farming fresh veggies today! No pesticides at all!"
MOM: "Great! Our daughter Lisa got the flu! She died!"
DAD: "Darn! Pass the corn! Mmmm delicious! The pounds are just falling off!"
MOM: "The Wilson's next door are a little upset because their Johnny caught the flu from Lisa...but they'll be okay. I brought over some peas!"
DAD: "Great! Life is so much better than when we were lazy and had desk jobs! Any clean water out there?"
MOM: "Nope, not today!"
huge steam engines before electricity. One engine could
run a whole department, with long leather belts and pulleys
and gears. Jay Leno has a factory steam engine that he
demo'd in a video. It ran a cotten mill in England in the
1840's and made almost no noise when it was running.
They used it for almost a hundred years and it still runs.
Silent, no exhaust fumes, very little consumption of
fossil fuel to keep the water boiling, and lots and lots
of efficient power. The Stanley Steamer was a very
good automoblie, could go 70mph with no noise. But
it took awhile to fire it up, so they died out when
gas engines took over. The freeways would be filled
with steam vehicles if we lost all the electricity.
Bob, I am assuming that Law and order is in huge distress- possibly non-existant -in a TEOTWAWKI situation as I envision "in fantasy". If there is no electricity or phone service the police cannot get to everyone assuming....what kind of TEOTWAWKI situation do you envision? I'm assuming say a meteor wiping out 1/3 of the people or some other like catastrophe which would disrupt life forever -perhaps huge radiation problems outside?? .....
Also, easy to become "savage like" when one is truly hungry AND not accustomed to it- possibly facing panic/fear of death. The only thing that will keep a large amount of a "populace" from "taking over roving" would be Police or Martial Law provided by the State or Federal government again assuming they could function as they do now by arresting and locking up the violators or possibly a shoot on site a violator scenario ??/would there be enough AMMO for them then for accurate control???). There would be a lot of violators to lock up would there not be?? Without electricity the Court system would grind to a halt too.
A lot to digest in speculation. Don't ever assume people can't be savage like in extreme extreme circumstances. Especially if the Law is greatly disabled in an uncontrollable --lack of food--TEOTWAWKI.
Quote: scire
A lot to digest in speculation. Don't ever assume people can't be savage
Better not to assume that civilized people will become mouth
breathing moronic zombies for longer than a few days. Law
and order would be restored rather quickly. We have libraries
full of books to teach us everything we need to know to survive
without electric. But this doesn't play well in the movies so
we assume everyone will go Rambo and become a looting
and killing machine. Not very likely.
Bob I guess my imagination could be better served writng scripts for a movie!!!!
END.
Quote: scireThe only thing that will keep a large amount of a "populace" from "taking over roving" would be Police or Martial Law provided by the State or Federal government again assuming they could function as they do now by arresting and locking up the violators ....
Never happen. There's a certain percentage of humanity who will use the scenario to rape and kill and pillage like they've always wanted to, but haven't because they're afraid of jailtime. Police will quickly be overwhelmed and just go home to protect their families. Doctors too. Forget courts and jail. Everyone will adopt a shoot-on-sight philosophy in the opening few weeks till things calm down.
Quote: zippyboyNever happen. There's a certain percentage of humanity who will use the scenario to rape and kill and pillage like they've always wanted to, but haven't because they're afraid of jailtime. Police will quickly be overwhelmed and just go home to protect their families. Doctors too. Forget courts and jail. Everyone will adopt a shoot-on-sight philosophy in the opening few weeks till things calm down.
Forget courts and jail? Forget everything. No cops, no court. No grocer, no doctor. No government, no country, no state. Everything falls.
I imagine it'd be a lot like a large scale Lord of the Flies. Ragtag groups of people in close proximity band together into strange tribes. They work together, sure, but there's in-fighting. There's battle for power. There's battle between these tribes. There's cooperation between tribes. Sometimes tribes split into sub-tribes, sometimes tribes join into super-tribes. This ebb and flow would continue forever. Eventually, if big enough and productive enough, a tribe could completely control an area, making new borders. Other tribes would get wiped out, incorporated, or pushed to other areas, where if they don't die off, they may take hold and control that area. Countries are reborn. Life goes on.
We humans have lived in that world before. No infrastructure, no government, no power, it's been done. The wants of that time have led us to the spoils of our time. Come TEOTWAWKI, while we'd regress into the old times, I see no reason why we wouldn't make it back. The trail's already been blazed.
Like the post. Thanks.
Quote: FaceCome TEOTWAWKI, while we'd regress into the old times,.
The old times were the old times because of a
lack of knowledge and technology. We would
lose electric, not our minds and not our books
and not our educations. A small number of
people would run wild for awhile, but they would
be dealt with. We would use our intelligence
and reorganize and move on.
This makes really good movie fodder, however.
Dozens of years of worst case scenerio movies
have brainwashed us into thinking we are just.
a hairs bredth away from babarism. We aren't.
Quote: EvenBobThe old times were the old times because of a
lack of knowledge and technology. We would
lose electric, not our minds and not our books
and not our educations. A small number of
people would run wild for awhile, but they would
be dealt with. We would use our intelligence
and reorganize and move on.
This makes really good movie fodder, however.
Dozens of years of worst case scenerio movies
have brainwashed us into thinking we are just.
a hairs bredth away from babarism. We aren't.
I wouldn't go so far to think we'd all go mad and regress to cavemen overnight, but there'd most definitely be SOME regression, at least by our standards. There'd be NO formal corrections, no formal police, no formal rule. At the very least, it'd be like the stereotypical "wild west". Law and order, sure, just a rougher version than we're used to.
Tell me what you think about continuing huge solar flares overheating our planet disrupting everything for an indefinite period of time making it difficult or even impossible to go outside-ruining crops and all commerce. Or a reverse in the electomagnetic field of the planet or the moon or both what that might cause.
Just continuing here in thought for continuance. What about severe increases in the planet's temperature for indefinite period of time with no electricity?
Where would people move too if the planet had a 30-50 degree average increase & without electricity? Faced with a "bombastic castastrophy" I wonder what survivalist would do....forever in their bunkers as the internal core of the earth gets hotter"
Could this not "change" people into "ragers". I just don't REALLY know? Who could? Anyone? ....I suspect it could????
(of course I do not expect these things to happen- really -- I am not brainwashed anyway just hypothisizing (sic)?)
As I said in a earlier post ...we really don't know what an "end" would be like
I certainly hope many could overcome such a debacle - for extended periods of time with civility.
Quote: zippyboyIf some event wiped out half the populace, as well as all electricity, we'd be screwed. Sure, we'd have some knowledge of the way things were, and textbooks we could read, but remember the universities are closed now, and they won't be churning out any more physicists to reopen all the nuclear reactors that closed down. Or doctors, botanists, etc. Those reactors and hospitals were likely looted to bare bones anyway. Get enough smart people together and they can figure out steam power enough to get the lights on in a few years for a small community, but large scale power for cities is beyond their grasp, IMO.
Cities are a condensation of mass residential and commercial areas. With commerce as we know it over, cities are no longer needed. There is almost nothing of need in a city in apocalyptic times. People move out to where there's resources. An area high in resources will attrack many people, who pool their talents and establish a town. Perhaps from there a city may rise again.
In other words, the world is recreated in our image, probably following the same path we've established.
Quote: scireAlso, easy to become "savage like" when one is truly hungry AND not accustomed to it- possibly facing panic/fear of death. The only thing that will keep a large amount of a "populace" from "taking over roving" would be Police or Martial Law provided by the State or Federal government again assuming they could function as they do now by arresting and locking up the violators or possibly a shoot on site a violator scenario ??/would there be enough AMMO for them then for accurate control???). There would be a lot of violators to lock up would there not be?? Without electricity the Court system would grind to a halt too.
I was in the islands during Hurricane Hugo. Houses were blown down everywhere, all the electricity was lost (except for generators). People turn savage long before the hunger gets to them. Within hours the high priced shops that cater to the wealthy Cruise ship tourists were being ripped apart. While in a class society where the rich have so much compared to the poor, this reaction was not particularly surprising. But by the next days the single mothers who sell t-shirts on the street were being hounded and robbed. The hardware stores were being stripped clean. Gunfire was erupting in the streets as gangs with machetes roamed the streets, and the prisoners escaped from the blown down jails. By the third day it was all machine guns and police and even some politicians were photographed taking part in the looting.
It ended up being the first time in almost two decades that the military was used to control the civilian population in a US state or territory.
Did you see what happened after Katrina? Gangs roved the streets, and the police couldn't do anything because THEY WERE UNDER ATTACK FROM GANGS OF CRIMINALS. Societal controls had broken down so badly that the police were given permission to shoot looters. Think about that: capital punishment FOR STEALING FOOD.
Thinking it would be bad for a few days and then we would all magically get it under control is way too optimistic.
In situations where all societal control breaks down, people's interests turn only to the survival of themselves and their loved ones. The idea of caring for your neighbor and helping others is secondary to survival.
Quote: SACRI think EvenBob is way too optimistic.
Did you see what happened after Katrina?
You're confusing what happens in the extreme short
term with whats going to happen over time. What
happens in the first few weeks is meaningless, its
to be expected. No society has a history of lawlessnes
that goes on forever. Especially no civalized society.
Quote: SACRDid you see what happened after Katrina? Gangs roved the streets, and the police couldn't do anything because THEY WERE UNDER ATTACK FROM GANGS OF CRIMINALS.
You also have to consider WHERE it happened. New Orleans is only a few steps away from that on its best days.
Hate to sound like a bigot, but for TEOTWAWKI survival it would be a huge advantage to live in a more... traditional place. One race, one grocery market, two gun stores, one church and everyone goes, one vote for 'rats in the past 50 years and only because the guy couldn't read.
Can you see a town like that breaking into looter gangs, whatever disaster strikes? I can't.
Quote: SACRRead "One Second After" by Forstchen
It involves an EMP knocking out all electricity in America, and the effect is mass starvation, religious hysteria, and society returning to the 19th century. It is an excellent book.
If an EMP hit, the first places to raid are local pharmacies. You want to grab anything that can be used as a form of barter. Any grocery stores are good, too. Grab all the non-perishable food you can for storage, eat anything that is perishable now. That might give you a few months.
Pepper worth its weight in gold
Quote: SACRRead "One Second After" by Forstchen
I'm currently about halfway through this book. The author can't write very well; for example, I've counted 5 instances in the first 4 chapters of the phrase "I could of done that..." rather than "I could have done that...". Irks the hell out of me when the author makes such a grammatical error and the editor/proofer and the publishing house don't correct it.
Story's okay though, not great, kinda slow, but keeping my interest. King's The Stand put the bar pretty high though.
Quote: P90
Hate to sound like a bigot, but for TEOTWAWKI survival it would be a huge advantage to live in a more... traditional place. One race, one grocery market, two gun stores, one church and everyone goes, one vote for 'rats in the past 50 years and only because the guy couldn't read.
implying that white republicans driven to the wall wouldn't act like savages?
you must live in fantasyland
somehow i doubt you hate to "sound" like a bigot.
Quote: WongBoimplying that white republicans driven to the wall wouldn't act like savages?
you must live in fantasyland
somehow i doubt you hate to "sound" like a bigot.
There may be some Bigot-try there, but cohesive societies would be more likely to work together. Which also indicates that the urban populations will band together as well.
Who would you hang out with? And that isn't a biggotted statement. If a TEOTW scenario was to come into play, then everyone is going to be alot more nervous around others, until thier motives/purposes have been determined.
If a TEOTW scenario WOULD happen, then would we all be struck dumb? All the things that YOU know now, would be forgotten?
Maybe your skill set isn't set up to operate in a TEOTW enviornment. But wouldn't you adapt? And even with an EMP pulse, MUCH machinery would still be able to work. You could strip off much of the electronic controls, for example, from a engine/generator, and then have electricity.
Outside of pumps, much of your civilian water/sewer systems would still work.
Even Electrical distribution systems would still EXIST. The would just have to be repaired. And the demand on the system would be much less, and then you would have SOME electricity...
We would still have roads. Maybe your 2011 car won't run, but your 1970's mobile will start up. Fuel? There would be folks working in Houston and NJ to restart refineries and other systems.
Many of these "doomsday" books do not have a clue about the basic infrastructure and how it is really designed, and how easy much of it is to operate.
If you are not dead, you go to work, or you try to make your sitch better. Which might mean walking south from the cold north, or into areas that might be able to support you. You might have skills that the people THERE need. Demonstrate the skill, and you might have a new job.
I think most members of the press and political classes will probably starve to death, but I digress.
Travel to Africa, China, or even India, and see millions of folks subsisting, or even doing ok, by thier standards on no electricity or even plumbing...
SFB
and befriending some well-armed individuals.
then i would probably form a cult-like operation on a relative's farm.
of course most people are most comfortable around people of their own ethnicity or socio-economic class,
but there are certain personality and cultural traits that might come in useful in an end of the world scenario.
Quote: WongBoimplying that white republicans driven to the wall wouldn't act like savages?
Yes. A stagnant agricultural town of same-race conservatives who go to the same church every Sunday is not going to turn into savages. If remote enough, it might not even notice a nuclear war right away, until trucks with internets stop coming in. In other scenarios, it's going to stick together. As has happened in history time and time again.
(BTW, did I say it has to be White? An all-Latino town south of the border works just as well, so would any other, if other conditions are met. Single race, aside from lack of racial tensions, implies little migration and likely strong family ties.)
New Orleans is a mix of warring gangs and welfare mothers feeding them with new fodder on the best of days. On its worst days, it's only to be expected that its citizens will do what they do best, only this time all out.
Quote: WongBoi would probably begin by amassing a huge pack of dogs for protection/food...
and befriending some well-armed individuals.
You're a bit late then, got to prepare in advance. I have a gun room at my house.
Complete with tornado/fallout shelter entrance, extra exits, concrete-filled doors.
Quote: P90
You're a bit late then, got to prepare in advance. I have a gun room at my house.
I have guns in every room, no gun room. I even have
a shotgun mounted over the back door. I can be standing
there talking to you and look unarmed, but there's a loaded
gun about 2 seconds from my hands. There's another one
hanging from the coat rack, a holstered .38. And it goes
on from there.
Quote: EvenBobI have guns in every room, no gun room. I even have a shotgun mounted over the back door. I can be standing
there talking to you and look unarmed, but there's a loaded gun about 2 seconds from my hands. There's another one hanging from the coat rack, a holstered .38.
There are advantages to it, but also disadvantages.
A gun room serves purposes other than security, it's a convenient place to size and load brass, store powders without worrying about fire safety, keep every part together. And then it would really come in play with kids, even if you teach them gun safety, you'll always have concerns just in case.
Though security's a factor too. I wouldn't want to leave a day/night scope that costs like a used car lying around in random places, then going around the house wondering if I've left it in the garage or if anyone visiting in the last week might have picked it up from the floor.
It's not like I don't have weapons where I actually might need them. But in every room, not necessary. I'll hear things well in advance if someone manages to break in, better not provide them with extra firearms.
