Mathematicians Fallacy (Baccarat)

Its now obvious people like trolls I offered a +EV situation /contest to not feed trolls. Not one person seemed interested. I still think a trolls worst nightmare would be no one feeding them. They would disappear and legitimate questions could be addressed. I think I seen a legitimate question asked about sport betting earlier.

Quote: AxelWolf

Quote: beachbumbabs

paigow1986 is suspended for 3 days for this post, exhibiting extreme rudeness towards another member, MathExtremist.

paigow1986 is suspended for 7 days for this post, exhibiting extreme rudeness towards another member, AxiomOfChoice.

paigow 1986 is suspended for 14 days for this post, personal insult to Twirdman.

Sentence to be served consecutively. Next occurence, upon return, of any severity will be nuclear.

I must admit I enjoy seeing Mr. 1986 get suspended mainly because I just don't like him or believe any of his 10k nonsense. I would not consider any of what he said suspension worthy. More proof Woman exploit power ;)

Yeah, you're right; I was too harsh. I'm going to change consecutive to concurrent and shorten it to 14 days overall.

Quote: gpac1377

Fortunately, his career choice does not require interpersonal skills. (He's a dealer.)

LOL +10

Quote: AxelWolf

Its now obvious people like trolls

Yes and no. I think you have to look at the intent. It's no fun when someone intentionally posts nonsense just to stir up trouble. But if the trolling is merely a side-effect of someone's sincerely "unique perspective," then I'm intrigued.

Quote: gpac1377

Yes and no. I think you have to look at the intent. It's no fun when someone intentionally posts nonsense just to stir up trouble. But if the trolling is merely a side-effect of someone's sincerely "unique perspective," then I'm intrigued.

You could equivalently say that the kid in math class who ardently believes 2+2=5 has a "unique perspective." There are several branches of advanced math and science where nuance and opinion come into play, but this isn't one of them.

Quote: AxelWolf

I must admit I enjoy seeing Mr. 1986 get suspended mainly because I just don't like him or believe any of his 10k nonsense. I would not consider any of what he said suspension worthy. More proof Woman exploit power ;)

The $10k stuff may be true. He goes on and on about your chances of winning a jackpot. He probably just got lucky and hit a big hand once and hasn't quite managed to lose it all back yet. Give him time...

Maybe he hit the jackpot on his 2nd hand played so now he is convinced that playing 2 hands increases your EV... it would be sad if it were not so funny.

Back when I ran a message board, I used to get trolls who were advanced APs come and argue progression systems and nonsense that would get the board worked up. Indeed, they delighted in it and, as I discovered, bragged about their trolling on other boards. I'm just saying.

Quote: teliot

Back when I ran a message board, I used to get trolls who were advanced APs come and argue progression systems and nonsense that would get the board worked up. Indeed, they delighted in it and, as I discovered, bragged about their trolling on other boards. I'm just saying.

There is one person on this board who I suspect may fit that description.

Not this guy though.

Quote: AxiomOfChoice

He may be Canadian.

Why would you pretend to be Canadian instead of British? They also use -ise for -ize. And they say aye all the time, as a result no one respects them--my knowledge of Canada comes from Southpark.

Gamblor and Paigow have similar possessive/plural apostrophe errors.

When I come onto the forum and see this thread among the Recent Threads list, I cringe. I've never blocked anything, but if the mods feel threads like this provide even the slightest bit of value to the forum (which they must since it's not been closed) then perhaps this is a good time to begin blocking.

IMO 31 pages of complete nonsense , trolling, falsehoods, and bad info does nothing but drag down the value of the forum.

Quote: Sonuvabish

Why would you pretend to be Canadian instead of British? They also use -ise for -ize. And they say aye all the time, as a result no one respects them--my knowledge of Canada comes from Southpark.

Gamblor and Paigow have similar possessive/plural apostrophe errors.

Now that you say that they both have the same abrasive argumentative attitude. I stopped trying to figure out who was multi accounting, I have been wrong a few times (Maybe) But a few were so obvious I was amazed that the mods will not do anything about it, unless their IP's match, any free VPN will solve that problem. And even that's not 100% fool proof someone could spoof your IP. (I think I'm not sure how all that works) I suggest getting a program that detects both the IP and the computer number or what ever its called. I don't think you can change that. So they would have to keep using different computers and a VPN. Just block all IPs from the Falls View aria and common free VPN addresses.

Quote: michael99000

IMO 31 pages of complete nonsense , trolling, falsehoods, and bad info does nothing but drag down the value of the forum.

Well said.

I laughed at OP (original poster) when I read that mumbo jumbo, but laughed even harder when I noticed there are 30+ pages.

Quote: michael99000

When I come onto the forum and see this thread among the Recent Threads list, I cringe. I've never blocked anything, but if the mods feel threads like this provide even the slightest bit of value to the forum (which they must since it's not been closed) then perhaps this is a good time to begin blocking.

IMO 31 pages of complete nonsense , trolling, falsehoods, and bad info does nothing but drag down the value of the forum.

I agree it provides no value, other than a little entertainment. But seriously, do you need to block it? Do you have some compulsion to read something that is probably garbage, just because it is visible? If it bothers you ignore it. I never even enter many of the forums. This one caught my eye as something I had to comment on.

Axel--I am similarly amazed. But I really don't think they need to go through that kind of trouble or even care that much about the issue. It's just when it's so friggin clear, and abuse is so flagrant...why does it continue? It's kind of funny, Gamblor gets banned. Then a semi-inactive poster, who has only posted in one thread, immediately comes here and defends him with similar writing mannerisms and similar ideas about math. And yes, they both definitely have that same abrasiveness. But they spelled centre different, so they must be different people. He's probably on thin ice at least.

Quote: Sonuvabish

It's kind of funny, Gamblor gets banned. Then a semi-inactive poster, who has only posted in one thread, immediately comes here and defends him with similar writing mannerisms and similar ideas about math.

Before the OP was emitted, Paigow posted ITT, and it was a good one:

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/17446-mathematicians-fallacy-baccarat/18/#post340639

I can't rule out that they're the same person, but those types of views are distressingly common on planet Earth. I think we're insulated here on this particular forum.

I very much doubt they're the same person. The writing styles and style errors seem too different, and this guy seems to have slightly more respect for math, even though he doesn't understand it.

Different styles? They are almost identical, except for extremely obvious differences like 'centre'. As for respecting math, I'd say Gamblor intended to get nuked. Lotta coincidence otherwise.

Quote: Sonuvabish

They also use -ise for -ize.

Nope. The spelling that you have described in standard Canadian (British on "re" vs "er" and "our" vs "or" to end words, but American for "ize" vs "ise"

Quote: Gamblor

When I realized I had an uncanny, almost super hero ability to predict heads or tails, I transferred that to baccarat.

Another ridiculous thread started by a Baccarat player.

Who else?

This is what happens when you spend too much time at the Baccarat tables.

Win one more bet than they lose in a fifty-fifty game and suddenly they have supernatural powers.

Quote: Tanko

Another ridiculous thread started by a Baccarat player.

Who else?

This is what happens when you spend too much time at the Baccarat tables.

Win one more bet than they lose in a fifty-fifty game and suddenly they have supernatural powers.

I'm new here, I play Baccarat (my favorite game), and I haven't read this entire thread, but I've read enough to understand that in this forum most people don't believe in anything but science and mathematics when it comes to gaming, and that there seems to be little tolerance for people who believe otherwise. I'm here because I'm open minded, willing to listen and willing to learn, and I appreciate the suggestions and instruction I've received here so far (I have a lot to learn still about casino gambling), but ...

If the original poster (and to a degree I, and maybe others) believe in more metaphysical, supernatural, woo woo, ridiculous, or whatever you want to call it aspects of our choosen casino game, why does it irritate some of you so much?

I practice yoga and meditation, I have done so for a long time, and these are an ingrained part of my life, and it's with me when I play Baccarat too.

Why not? Why can't I believe in patterns when I play? Why can't I believe in some kind of precognitive feeling or trust my intuition when choosing my move? Why can't I draw on a piece of paper if I believe it enhances my game somehow? Why can't I apply spiritual teachings to Baccarat when it can be applied to almost every other aspect of life (to those who choose to)? Why should any of this bother those who don't believe in any of it, don't support it, don't appreciate it, don't understand it?

I used to play slots on occasion, I'm fairly new to frequent visits to the casino to play Baccarat now (3 Card Poker as well sometimes), it's exciting and I'm loving it! I'm here to learn, explore, meet new people, share, and play. Is that ok?

"Don't be content easily. Those who remain content easily remain small, small are their joys, small are their ecstasies, small are their silences, small is their being. There's no need! This smallness is your own imposition upon your freedom, upon your unlimited possibilities, upon your unlimited potential."

You guys are all very smart and fun. I love you guys. Don't be mean.

Quote: AnabelleT

Don't be mean.

One problem is that irrational beliefs cause a lot of harm. Here's a site that compiles examples:

http://whatstheharm.net/

Quote: AnabelleT

I'm new here, I play Baccarat (my favorite game), and I haven't read this entire thread, but I've read enough to understand that in this forum most people don't believe in anything but science and mathematics when it comes to gaming, and that there seems to be little tolerance for people who believe otherwise. I'm here because I'm open minded, willing to listen and willing to learn, and I appreciate the suggestions and instruction I've received here so far (I have a lot to learn still about casino gambling), but ...

If the original poster (and to a degree I, and maybe others) believe in more metaphysical, supernatural, woo woo, ridiculous, or whatever you want to call it aspects of our choosen casino game, why does it irritate some of you so much?

I practice yoga and meditation, I have done so for a long time, and these are an ingrained part of my life, and it's with me when I play Baccarat too.

Why not? Why can't I believe in patterns when I play? Why can't I believe in some kind of precognitive feeling or trust my intuition when choosing my move? Why can't I draw on a piece of paper if I believe it enhances my game somehow? Why can't I apply spiritual teachings to Baccarat when it can be applied to almost every other aspect of life (to those who choose to)? Why should any of this bother those who don't believe in any of it, don't support it, don't appreciate it, don't understand it?

I used to play slots on occasion, I'm fairly new to frequent visits to the casino to play Baccarat now (3 Card Poker as well sometimes), it's exciting and I'm loving it! I'm here to learn, explore, meet new people, share, and play. Is that ok?

"Don't be content easily. Those who remain content easily remain small, small are their joys, small are their ecstasies, small are their silences, small is their being. There's no need! This smallness is your own imposition upon your freedom, upon your unlimited possibilities, upon your unlimited potential."

You guys are all very smart and fun. I love you guys. Don't be mean.

Alot of people have nothing better to do.
I can understand that people want to point out the maths, but theres no need to be rude while doing so.

Quote: AnabelleT

Why not? Why can't I believe in patterns when I play? Why can't I believe in some kind of precognitive feeling or trust my intuition when choosing my move? Why can't I draw on a piece of paper if I believe it enhances my game somehow? Why can't I apply spiritual teachings to Baccarat when it can be applied to almost every other aspect of life (to those who choose to)? Why should any of this bother those who don't believe in any of it, don't support it, don't appreciate it, don't understand it?

You can, nobody's stopping you. Humans are hard-wired to detect and act on patterns, even when those patterns are observed in provably independent events. If you flip a coin 20 times, you'll observe patterns. Do it again, you'll observe more patterns. That doesn't mean you know whether heads or tails is coming next (and I think you know this), but it does mean that your brain intuitively looked at the previous sequence of heads and tails and tried to make sense of it. You can't stop, you're genetically built to do it.

However, there's a bright line between "I observed patterns in random data" and "the patterns I observed allow me to predict the future." The latter is provably false. The patterns you observe in random, independent data are not useful predictive tools. When you or anyone else starts claiming that they are, that's when you lose everyone. It's that latter claim of prediction that forms the flawed foundation of every claim to being able to beat baccarat by looking at previous hands, streaks of results, or "imbalance in the shoe".

As to bothering, it doesn't bother me at all. The casino doesn't care if you think you can predict the future of a baccarat or roulette game by tracking past results. That's why they give you the scorecards.

And yet, they do not allow scorecards in Blackjack. I wonder, WHY ?

Quote: MathExtremist

You can, nobody's stopping you. Humans are hard-wired to detect and act on patterns, even when those patterns are observed in provably independent events. If you flip a coin 20 times, you'll observe patterns. Do it again, you'll observe more patterns. That doesn't mean you know whether heads or tails is coming next (and I think you know this), but it does mean that your brain intuitively looked at the previous sequence of heads and tails and tried to make sense of it. You can't stop, you're genetically built to do it.

However, there's a bright line between "I observed patterns in random data" and "the patterns I observed allow me to predict the future." The latter is provably false. The patterns you observe in random, independent data are not useful predictive tools. When you or anyone else starts claiming that they are, that's when you lose everyone. It's that latter claim of prediction that forms the flawed foundation of every claim to being able to beat baccarat by looking at previous hands, streaks of results, or "imbalance in the shoe".

As to bothering, it doesn't bother me at all. The casino doesn't care if you think you can predict the future of a baccarat or roulette game by tracking past results. That's why they give you the scorecards.

And just to add to the perfect post above, following your pattern (or your zone, or your chi, or whatever) cannot make you do worse.

As long as you don't get caught in progressions and break out more than you can afford in confidence that a win is due, playing whatever wonky system in Bac can't make you worse.

So, if it's fun... do it.

Quote: Face

And just to add to the perfect post above, following your pattern (or your zone, or your chi, or whatever) cannot make you do worse.

As long as you don't get caught in progressions and break out more than you can afford in confidence that a win is due, playing whatever wonky system in Bac can't make you worse.

That is a big if!

First, if you sometimes bet player and sometimes banker because your chi tells you to, you are losing more than if you just bet on banker.

But, that's a relatively small effect, so if it increases your fun it might be worthwhile. The casino is going to get all your gambling money anyway, so all it's really changing is how long it takes.

The REAL problem occurs when you start to believe in this nonsense and you start to bet more than you otherwise would. If you accept that you are going to lose all your gambling money, then you will probably set aside a reasonable amount of money to spend on this form of entertainment, so, you're right, it doesn't really matter how you go about losing it. Whatever is the most fun is probably what you should do.

BUT... if you believe that you will win in the long term because of some fundamental misunderstanding of mathematics, that's when things get hairy. You're no longer spending money on entertainment -- now you are investing money to make more money! All of a sudden you can justify a gambling with a LOT more money (money that you can't really afford to lose).

Worse, if you're one of these negative progression mathematically challenged types (which baccarat tends to attract) and you have a lot of winning sessions in a row (which is expected with a negative progression!) then you really start to think you are onto something. Maybe you quit your job and decide to go "pro". It goes pretty well until you lose it all and then some in one disastrous session (also expected with a negative progression!). All of a sudden you have no job, and are just another gambling degenerate trying to scrape together a few bucks to "get back in the game". Basically, you destroy your life because of belief in this nonsense.

So, yeah, it can make you do worse. A lot worse. Not only in baccarat, but in life.

Quote: AxiomOfChoice

That is a big if!

First, if you sometimes bet player and sometimes banker because your chi tells you to, you are losing more than if you just bet on banker.

But, that's a relatively small effect, so if it increases your fun it might be worthwhile. The casino is going to get all your gambling money anyway, so all it's really changing is how long it takes.

The REAL problem occurs when you start to believe in this nonsense and you start to bet more than you otherwise would. If you accept that you are going to lose all your gambling money, then you will probably set aside a reasonable amount of money to spend on this form of entertainment, so, you're right, it doesn't really matter how you go about losing it. Whatever is the most fun is probably what you should do.

BUT... if you believe that you will win in the long term because of some fundamental misunderstanding of mathematics, that's when things get hairy. You're no longer spending money on entertainment -- now you are investing money to make more money! All of a sudden you can justify a gambling with a LOT more money (money that you can't really afford to lose).

Worse, if you're one of these negative progression mathematically challenged types (which baccarat tends to attract) and you have a lot of winning sessions in a row (which is expected with a negative progression!) then you really start to think you are onto something. Maybe you quit your job and decide to go "pro". It goes pretty well until you lose it all and then some in one disastrous session (also expected with a negative progression!). All of a sudden you have no job, and are just another gambling degenerate trying to scrape together a few bucks to "get back in the game". Basically, you destroy your life because of belief in this nonsense.

So, yeah, it can make you do worse. A lot worse. Not only in baccarat, but in life.

You sound like my dad. I love my dad and we're very close, but if he knew how often I was going to the casino to play Baccarat he might say exactly what you just said to me here. It's ok. I'm not going to go overboard and spend more than I can afford. My family does fine, so even in the tragic scenario you bring up, I'm sure they would come to my rescue, but that's not going to happen, I promise.

To be totally honest, I do dream of the incredible excitement of going to the High Limit room on my own and playing a few hands at $100 a turn. I'm not going to do it now, I'm not ready, but eventually this is something I'm definitely going to try. Maybe I'm easily impressed but it's mind blowing excitement to me to have that experience (I did briefly once, but that was just a teaser). But again, don't worry, I'm not going to do something stupid and gamble what I don't have.

Thank you for the very real words though, I recognize it's important to keep my feet planted on the ground while flying high with Baccarat at the casino with everyone treating me like a princess! I am a Sagittarius after all :)

March 24

New discoveries that capture your imagination could find you spending most of your day sequestered in your home and learning as much as you can. All indications are that you aren't going to want to do much else, Sagittarius, but it's important to remember to take breaks and get a little exercise throughout the day. Moving the body and shaking out the kinks in your muscles can get your mind going as well.

Quote: AnabelleT

You sound like my dad. I love my dad and we're very close, but if he knew how often I was going to the casino to play Baccarat he might say exactly what you just said to me here. It's ok. I'm not going to go overboard and spend more than I can afford. My family does fine, so even in the tragic scenario you bring up, I'm sure they would come to my rescue, but that's not going to happen, I promise.

To be totally honest, I do dream of the incredible excitement of going to the High Limit room on my own and playing a few hands at $100 a turn. I'm not going to do it now, I'm not ready, but eventually this is something I'm definitely going to try. Maybe I'm easily impressed but it's mind blowing excitement to me to have that experience (I did briefly once, but that was just a teaser). But again, don't worry, I'm not going to do something stupid and gamble what I don't have.

Thank you for the very real words though, I recognize it's important to keep my feet planted on the ground while flying high with Baccarat at the casino with everyone treating me like a princess! I am a Sagittarius after all :)

My point is -- accept that you are going to lose. If it's still fun, keep playing.

Once you start to believe that you will win, things get dangerous. I'm not saying "don't play". I'm saying "don't believe any of this nonsense about beating the game". Some days you will win. Some days you will lose. In the end, the casino will get all the money that you are willing to gamble with. Make sure that you are having enough fun to justify that expense, and it's all good.

Quote: AxiomOfChoice

Nope. The spelling that you have described in standard Canadian (British on "re" vs "er" and "our" vs "or" to end words, but American for "ize" vs "ise"

I said Canadians also use -ise for -ize. I thought he was pretending to British. You're right, maybe he is pretending to be Canadian. Can we agree it's un-American?

Quote: Sonuvabish

I said Canadians also use -ise for -ize.

I know you did. And you are wrong :)

I believe both are in use, and -ize is preferred. Regardless, even if I am wrong, I would pretend to be British, aye.

Quote: AnabelleT

I practice yoga and meditation, I have done so for a long time, and these are an ingrained part of my life, and it's with me when I play Baccarat too.

Why not? Why can't I believe in patterns when I play? Why can't I believe in some kind of precognitive feeling or trust my intuition when choosing my move? Why can't I draw on a piece of paper if I believe it enhances my game somehow? Why can't I apply spiritual teachings to Baccarat when it can be applied to almost every other aspect of life (to those who choose to)? Why should any of this bother those who don't believe in any of it, don't support it, don't appreciate it, don't understand it?

I used to play slots on occasion, I'm fairly new to frequent visits to the casino to play Baccarat now (3 Card Poker as well sometimes), it's exciting and I'm loving it! I'm here to learn, explore, meet new people, share, and play. Is that ok?

"Don't be content easily. Those who remain content easily remain small, small are their joys, small are their ecstasies, small are their silences, small is their being. There's no need! This smallness is your own imposition upon your freedom, upon your unlimited possibilities, upon your unlimited potential."

You guys are all very smart and fun. I love you guys. Don't be mean.

I'm not a math guy. But here's the thing with patterns.

Let's say you are playing craps, and there's a streak going. It's exciting as all hell, isn't it! Money's flying, folks gettin' paid, cheering...
Do you bet that the streak will continue, because it's a STREAK, or do you bet that it will end, because they always do?

I'll put it in mystical terms. It's unity. Each bet, each occurrence, is its own chance. You are dealt three cards... what could they be? There is no streak, there is no pattern. there is just this one happening. The cards have no knowledge.

So why do it? You do it for the thrill of the revelation. Satori. And not just knowing the result of the wager, the turn, but becoming one with the truth: that there is no meaning to it. It exists to give you that one pleasure, that one time, and then your choice is to repeat is as often as you like (or until your bankroll vanishes, that happens too).

To get in the moment, go zen on it, is to experience it as it plays out: whether it is a streak of luck, or a series of ups and downs, or a crash and burn. This is all secondary to the understanding of it. I understand the math very well, and it has no bearing on my enjoyment, positive or negative. What it does do is it prevents me from overbetting my bankroll on games I can't win.

Believe the math, because it is truth. Live the experience, because it is beauty. They are not independent.

Quote: Buzzard

March 24

New discoveries that capture your imagination could find you spending most of your day sequestered in your home and learning as much as you can. All indications are that you aren't going to want to do much else, Sagittarius, but it's important to remember to take breaks and get a little exercise throughout the day. Moving the body and shaking out the kinks in your muscles can get your mind going as well.

Thank you for the Horoscope Mr Buzzard, but it's a little inaccurate. I'm always on the move, I get plenty of exercise, I'm a dance instructor, and I rarely am sequestered at home. Right around the time I broke up with my boyfriend a few months ago I got into Baccarat, so I have to admit it's been keeping me fairly consumed, though I do focus on a number of other things in life as well.

Quote: Mosca

I'm not a math guy. But here's the thing with patterns.

Let's say you are playing craps, and there's a streak going. It's exciting as all hell, isn't it! Money's flying, folks gettin' paid, cheering...
Do you bet that the streak will continue, because it's a STREAK, or do you bet that it will end, because they always do?

I'll put it in mystical terms. It's unity. Each bet, each occurrence, is its own chance. You are dealt three cards... what could they be? There is no streak, there is no pattern. there is just this one happening. The cards have no knowledge.

So why do it? You do it for the thrill of the revelation. Satori. And not just knowing the result of the wager, the turn, but becoming one with the truth: that there is no meaning to it. It exists to give you that one pleasure, that one time, and then your choice is to repeat is as often as you like (or until your bankroll vanishes, that happens too).

To get in the moment, go zen on it, is to experience it as it plays out: whether it is a streak of luck, or a series of ups and downs, or a crash and burn. This is all secondary to the understanding of it. I understand the math very well, and it has no bearing on my enjoyment, positive or negative. What it does do is it prevents me from overbetting my bankroll on games I can't win.

Believe the math, because it is truth. Live the experience, because it is beauty. They are not independent.

I like this, Mosca, thank you.

Quote: AnabelleT

Why not? Why can't I believe in patterns when I play? Why can't I believe in some kind of precognitive feeling or trust my intuition when choosing my move? Why can't I draw on a piece of paper if I believe it enhances my game somehow? Why can't I apply spiritual teachings to Baccarat .

You can do all of that, including jumping up
before you bet and spininng around 3 times while
chanting Om Mani Padme Hum. All of it will
make no difference in the accuracy of your bet.

Quote: EvenBob

You can do all of that, including jumping up
before you bet and spininng around 3 times while
chanting Om Mani Padme Hum. All of it will
make no difference in the accuracy of your bet.

But it might make betting more fun? It surely would make my job more fun watching all of this go down :)

Quote: AnabelleT

To be totally honest, I do dream of the incredible excitement of going to the High Limit room on my own and playing a few hands at $100 a turn.

I have to admit, $100 and "high limit" sound funny to my ear when used together on the game of baccarat.

Quote: teliot

I have to admit, $100 and "high limit" sound funny to my ear when used together on the game of baccarat.

We are talking about the US here, not Macau :)

Quote: Tomspur

We are talking about the US here, not Macau :)

Or Singapore, or Korea, or Camboda or ... The U.S. is the lowest "high roller" country by far among the developed casino destinations.

Quote: teliot

Or Singapore, or Korea, or Camboda or ... The U.S. is the lowest "high roller" country by far among the developed casino destinations.

Funny you should mention Korea and I know I'm going "main floor" here but we allow our general floor guests to bet a minimum of W5,000 (equal to about $4.60) on a single bet of Bacc :)

Quote: teliot

Or Singapore, or Korea, or Camboda or ... The U.S. is the lowest "high roller" country by far among the developed casino destinations.

The regular day to day Asians in my local
Indian joint bet $300-$600 on every hand.
And that's not even close to high roller
status for bac. In roulette, a suit would
be watching like a hawk if you bet that
much on every spin. In bac, they're at
the other end of the pit napping.

It's not really gambling if it doesn't hurt if you lose.

It's a reflection on the strength of the middle class, actually. That is a middle ground that is high to people of medium means. It's like there aren't very many Miatas in South America; if you can afford a Miata, you can also afford a Mercedes roadster. There is no niche for an impractical roadster as a primary car, nor as a second car.

In the same way, $100 is far too small for the 1%, but way out of the league of most of the world. Here in the US, it qualifies as a high roll for someone making an average wage or pension income, which would be most casino patrons. For myself, I could play $100 blackjack, but not any of the games I enjoy playing, and I couldn't touch $100 craps. It's more fun to play crappy games at low stakes. For me.

Quote: Tomspur

Funny you should mention Korea and I know I'm going "main floor" here but we allow our general floor guests to bet a minimum of W5,000 (equal to about $4.60) on a single bet of Bacc :)

Where does "high roller" start in your casino? I think we have a common friend who was a former director of surveillance over there.

Quote: teliot

Where does "high roller" start in your casino? I think we have a common friend who was a former director of surveillance over there.

Yeah we have, he is back in the US now. Our minimum bets in our VIP area is W100, 000 on baccarat (about $92.76). HArd to believe that we are close to being the highest grossing casino on the planet right? :)

ITS GOOD TO BE BACK

first order of business...funny you guys think that me and gamblor were the same person. I wish there was some way you guys could look up our ip addresses and track what cities we are from, we are NOT the same person, so to any of you mathematical genius's that thought that, stick to math, because being a detective doesn't suit you guys all too well

second....the fact that BEACHBUMBABS....of ALL people was the one to give me the banhammer is BEYOND ironic, mainly because while there were some people who came to my defense on that thread I started under the gambling section...ONE of those people that DID NOT bash me, and borderline agreed with me was.....YOU GUESSED IT....BEACHBUMBABS.....and I quote her:

"p1986,

I read this initially several weeks ago, and I'm going to stick my neck out as an experienced paigow player but non-mathematician and say I agree with the premise that 6-$5 bonus bets are better value than 1 $30 bet. I'm not going back to read what exactly has been said one way or the other, just that the following is true (and I'm explaining in greater detail than you likely need, but I expect to get this argument picked apart, and so I'm explaining my reasons for agreeing);

1. One player @30, assuming no other players, will not generate an envy bonus. 6@5 will receive an envy bonus, at a 5x value, for 4OAK above, and that bonus will be collected by the same person who collects the large odds bet. This is maximized at the 5 level, and the second reason to only play 5, not more or less: envy bonuses are a flat rate, not an odds pay based on the size of the bonus bet above 5.

2. One player is benefiting from all 6 bets that has a Hit Frequency of 19.1944% (source: WoO most-used Paytable for Fortune PaiGow), which is larger than the 16.66% share per bet of 6 bonus bets; in other words, you will virtually always have a hedge on, with bonus pays on a 2 to 1 or higher basis. You will never lose more than 50% of the value of your bonus bets under this scenario (bet 6, retain 3 with the lowest payoff of 2 to 1 on a straight) in the long run, where as a single spot player, you will lose this bet 4 out of 5 times. This increases, as a single player covering 6 bets, your Hit Frequency on this bet to over 100%, but decreases your return inversely (you're not receiving 2 to 1 or 3 to 1 or whatever on the full amount, but only 1/6 of it per bonus hand).

3. The joker will appear in 6 hands controlled by you, only 1 by the dealer, not 6 separate players, on any given deal. Your chances are slightly less than 6 out of 7 of holding the joker, because 4 cards are burned, and it may be in the discards. The joker's pay effect is already calculated in 2 above, so this may be redundant to the calculation, but joker-bearing hands are significantly more likely to result in a bonus pay, and you have it slightly more than 80% of the time, where a single player has it only 13.5% of the time. With a single player receiving the value of 6 bets instead of one, even though larger, having that much use of the joker has GOT to improve your value on splitting up the bets. (BTW, these are all reasons why I insist on playing 2 hands wherever I go; except for extreme negative variance days, one hand tends to pay for the other and allows me all of these advantages on a lesser scale; I don't care if they make me play 2x minimums; this is how I want to play, and I tend to lose slowly while waiting for the big score.)

It would be my OPINION, without the math skills to back it up, that you take a significant carve of the Fortune bet @7.77% HE - which does NOT include the Envy Bonus - that's the main HE improvement point - with each hand you are allowed to play in addition to the first. Whether at its extreme (which you have here) it crosses into +EV territory, I doubt (though it could), but a team of 3 playing 2 with pre-agreed strategy and bet sizes and pooling afterwards would have the same effective edge you describe for a single player, and that's "allowed" in most casinos (3 people playing together on 2 hands each, I mean; no idea if a casino would back a team off for being obvious about this). The reason I doubt the +EV value is because it's so evident that it must've been tested and/or tried in the 20-odd years that bet's been offered.

In my experience, there are many people, especially Asian consortiums in Biloxi, who arrive and depart as groups, playing similar strategy to each other with multiple hands; though at other times a similar group will have one player making big bets on a positive progression system, with all of them standing behind. Having watched them play both ways, I make some assumptions about the level of their expertise, which is often extremely high, and have learned a lot about game strategy from them. If your underlying plan were +EV, they would be all over it. Instead, many of them bet black, even purple, and don't even try the sidebet for 5 bucks. I ALWAYS bet it, but that's my happy place at PGP; always looking for the 7SFnoJ hand, even at -EV. Almost had it once in clubs - the infamous "one-away". "



funny what happens when you give females power. they abuse it. another reason why we will (hopefully) never see a woman president in the USA..

TOODLES!!

*grabs popcorn*

Is this guy not getting nuked an april fool's joke?

Quote: AxiomOfChoice

Is this guy not getting nuked an april fool's joke?

LOL. Hard to say.

The premise that the Gambler's Fallacy is somehow nonsense and that past events do indeed predict future results and that it's the mathematicians that are operating under the fallacious presumption that past events don't influence future events would be a good April Fool's post on a board like this.

Even better, the fact that nobody has yet been able to quantify "gut feelings" about how the cards are going to come out is really disappointing. I wish that Gamblor would get to work on that, because I'd really like to tap into my inner psychic the next time I'm in Vegas.

Sadly the OP was two weeks premature.

ETA - or were you talking about the misogynist on page 35? I expect that account is toast.