need math help - blackjack related
there is a promotion I am in and while playing blackjack if you get 5 cards without breaking you get 3-1 on your bet
what is the optimal way to play this to come out ahead
ie - should i hit a three card 13 against a six?- any help would be greatly appreciated guys
Quote: jeffwarren75hoping someone can help me
there is a promotion I am in and while playing blackjack if you get 5 cards without breaking you get 3-1 on your bet
what is the optimal way to play this to come out ahead
ie - should i hit a three card 13 against a six?- any help would be greatly appreciated guys
Its called a 5 card charlie, And if you deviate from B.S chasing this bonus it will increase the house edge significantly. So don't chase it.
Quote: PaigowdanThat's the thing about some BJ promotions: the extra payouts of the promotion are covered by inducing bad strategy plays.
Yes sir, but if you don't fall for it stick to the B.S program and take the charlies as they come its a good bonus.
Quote: rainmanIts called a 5 card charlie, And if you deviate from B.S chasing this bonus it will increase the house edge significantly. So don't chase it.
There might be rare instances where chasing it could be an advantage, but my gut reaction is the same as rainman - treat it like the insurance bet and ignore it. The only situations I can see where it might be an advantage all assume that you already have four cards.
In your example, even if you have an "infinite deck", of the 169 possible pairs of fourth/fifth card ranks, only 28 of them don't put you over 21.
The five-card charlie is a friend and ally best ignored...give him attention and he'll turn on you....
arent there 4/13 cards left that make you an automatic winner? so like 30.7 percent of the time you will hit and get paid 4-1?
Quote: PaigowdanA casino operator may spend several thousand or more in additional losses to obtain new customers and renew existing ones, often well worth it. NO good promotion is free.
The five-card charlie is a friend and ally best ignored...give him attention and he'll turn on you....
Quote: IbeatyouracesPure and utter BS.
Substantiate this if you're making this claim.
1. On promotions: it generates business, and it takes money to make money.
2. On chasing BJ promo's: a low payout five-card charlie is no excuse to wreck basic strategy.
Quote: jeffwarren75ok wait a second, let assume basic strategy, but you have 4 cards that total 17
arent there 4/13 cards left that make you an automatic winner? so like 30.7 percent of the time you will hit and get paid 4-1?
I don't think you're an "automatic winner" - if you draw a 3 and the dealer ends up with 21, do you win your initial bet?
Even assuming you do not, I crunched some numbers for an "easy" example:
S17, two decks, dealer has 6 (so normally you stand on hard 12 and higher).
With a 4-card 17, the EV for standing (with a bet of 1) is +0.0105; normally, the EV for hitting is -0.5089, but if you include the 3-1 payoff for drawing an Ace through 4 in this case, it becomes +0.4142.
Either I've got my numbers wrong, or this applies to hitting on 18(!) when dealer shows 10:
Standing on 18: -0.1713
Normally hitting on 18: -0.6466
Taking into account the 9/13 "bonus" for the three cards that don't bust you: +0.0457
Again, this assumes that the 3-1 pays off even if you lose (as long as you don't bust).
Also, I reiterate that you should only consider "chasing" this bet when you already have four cards.
There is a small percentage of situations that call for a deviation from BS.
Quote: IbeatyouracesAlso, deviating from BS to go for the charlie is no different then us counters deviating when the count calls for it. It becomes the PROPER PLAY.
Maybe so.
Keep in mind:
1. How many people percentage-wise will play the promo specifications correctly? Card counting is the most famous and known AP play, and it is seldom done correctly or well enough to provide a real advantage.
2. Most BJ players, and a lot of slot and crap players will play a BJ promotion, and generate business. That's the point.
Quote: PaigowdanSubstantiate this if you're making this claim.
1. On promotions: it generates business, and it takes money to make money.
2. On chasing BJ promo's: a low payout five-card charlie is no excuse to wreck basic strategy.
Geez, Louise! BASIC STRATEGY is dependent upon the rules of the game! If the rules of the game include being paid 3 to 1 for a 5 card charlie, then basic strategy for this game will differ from basic strategy for all other games. So, Dan, you have A, 2, A, 4 and the dealer has a 7 up. You going to stand?
Of course most basic strategy plays will be the same for both sets of rules, but not all.
Quote: SOOPOOGeez, Louise! BASIC STRATEGY is dependent upon the rules of the game! If the rules of the game include being paid 3 to 1 for a 5 card charlie, then basic strategy for this game will differ from basic strategy for all other games. So, Dan, you have A, 2, A, 4 and the dealer has a 7 up. You going to stand?
Of course most basic strategy plays will be the same for both sets of rules, but not all.
Scott,
Basic Strategy is dependent upon the rules of the game, but a promo is not a standard game offering as much as a one-off shot to both generate business, and to perhaps trip up players modifying strategy - to pay for the promo.
As a personal financial effort, spending the time to adjust BS and hope for the best is not worth it for the average player as well as for many optimal players.
A good reliable way to take advantage of the situation - for most people entering a casino, that is - is to play the better EV game without letting a casino operator goad you into chasing. Trust me on this, they're gooood at it....
As for standing on a four-card soft 18 against a dealer's 7, you're damn straight I'm gonna stand... on a regular game, but hit for a "loss win" on this game. Good luck seeing this hand in the course of your session. Now, the chances are that many will hit on a hard hand that they would not have...
With a very large 3-1 payout, There are likely numerous departures from BS. You would certainly be hitting more multi-card 12s, 13s and 14s. There is some info on the basic strategy for 5-card charlies out there that cause on automatic, 1:1 win. But 3:1 would cause you to be even more agressive with hitting than these strategies state. I believe soft doubling would also be substantially reduced.
As a rough estimate as to where to go with the strategy, I would start with the 5-card charlie 1:1 strategy, and then identify some more borderline stiff standing/hitting hands, and change those to hits when they are comprised of 3 or 4 cards. 4-card stiffs (12-16s) would dictate almost universal hitting against every upcard. I'd also lose the A-2-A5 soft doubles and hit instead. This strategy is still probably pretty conservative.
btw, regarding the arguments, this promotion/rule change is so good that it will help rather than hurt nearly every single player (all but the ones who go way too far in changing their strategy, such as hitting hard 18s), especially considering many players tendicies to already go against BS by standing rather than hitting mulit-card hands against a 7-A upcard. It will really help these players if they are now encouraged to hit.
The above of course assumes there are no other rule departures (such as 6:5), to which I am skeptical.
Quote: IbeatyouracesQuote: PaigowdanScott,
Basic Strategy is dependent upon the rules of the game, but a promo is not a standard game offering as much as a one-off shot to both generate business, and to perhaps trip up players modifying strategy - to pay for the promo.
As a personal financial effort, spending the time to adjust BS and hope for the best is not worth it for the average player as well as for many optimal players.
A good reliable way to take advantage of the situation - for most people entering a casino, that is - is to play the better EV game without letting a casino operator goad you into chasing. Trust me on this, they're gooood at it....
As for standing on a four-card soft 18 against a dealer's 7, you're damn straight I'm gonna stand...
I believe this IS the better EV game.
It is a better EV game, but with a trick - to get players to mess up. Most hands won't be multi-card soft 18's, there WILL be more player busts paying for the promotion....
Another promotion was paying 50:1 - FIFTY to one on THREE consecutive hands of 20.
Many hands were so badly played that the table hold went UP, where the promotion was not only free, but profit-making.
However, I DO guarantee you that if "50:1 on three straight 20's" became a standard game, it would be a loss for the house.
Quote: Paigowdan
It is a better EV game, but with a trick - to get players to mess up. Most hands won't be multi-card soft 18's, there WILL be more player busts paying for the promotion....
I appreciate what you are trying to say and your skeptical mind, but this is utter nonsense. The vast, vast majority of players would profit from playing this table over one without the rule change. It's that good. Hence why I'm personally skeptical the other rules don't make up for this and the OP is not accidentally referring to a carnival game like SF21.
Rule-change BJ Promotions generate business, but also generate more errors than advantage play for the most part.
The vast majority of players would profit - IF they don't chase! Too many do indeed....
Casinos have a history of getting the gambling pubic to pay while they play.
This is not utter nonesense as you say, - casinos are very good at getting people to gamble and lose to them via many mechanisms such as this.
And let's say they - the gambling public - played well, without falling for any inducements to make errors. Many would say, "I haven't been here in a while, I did well and I won, - so I will be coming back...."
It came out well. Many people came and played all day: tables did great, shops did great, a success.
The 50:1 payouts generated excitement and fist-pumps shouts of joy: music in the casino.
Quote: PaigowdanI did see it, I was a part of the promo.
I believe you and im serious you ever see somthing like that again let me know.
Quote: paigowdanThis thread is fine: we're getting into the casino tricks over here....don't look at this as Player AP, look at it from the casino's point of view, as a potential casino AP play.
Rule-change BJ Promotions generate business, but also generate more errors than advantage play for the most part.
The vast majority of players would profit - IF they don't chase! Too many do indeed....
Casinos have a history of getting the gambling pubic to pay while they play.
This is not utter nonesense as you say, - casinos are very good at getting people to gamble and lose to them via many mechanisms such as this.
Okay... but this specific instance is a simple large shift in the player's favor that no "chasing" would be close to enough to make it more profitable than without the rule change.
If a casino truly believes this promotion would increase the average House Advantage on the table as you suggest then they need to rethink their marketing, as that is categorically false. Some slightly positive rule changes could perhaps actually be negative due to mis-plays, but not this one.
Of course they may entice some new players to show up or cause players to bet far more than they otherwise would have, which will increase gambling volume and possibly reap rewards for the casino, but nearly every player will be playing at a smaller house advantage at this table. Plain and simple. A 3:1 5-card charlie is simply the wrong rule change to bring up your argument.
Quote: rainmanI believe you and im serious you ever see somthing like that again let me know.
Absolutely!
The whole point of promotions is to get the word out to come on down.
We should have a more heavily travel Promo area...
Quote: pocketaces(all but the ones who go way too far in changing their strategy, such as hitting hard 18s)
Actually, the expectation of hitting a four-card hard 18 is 3*3/13 - 10/13 = -0.077, meaning that you are better of hitting it against a 9 or higher.
And yeah, hitting a four card hard 15 against a 6 (against anything actually) is a really good idea too :)
Quote: pocketacesOkay... but this specific instance is a simple large shift in the player's favor that no "chasing" would be close to enough to make it more profitable than without the rule change.
If a casino truly believes this promotion would increase the average House Advantage on the table as you suggest then they need to rethink their marketing, as that is categorically false. Some slightly positive rule changes could perhaps actually be negative due to mis-plays, but not this one.
What you're saying is mathematically true, I do not deny it at all.
What I am talking about is that there is a LOT of human error, player error, at the tables, and a new flash promo generates more business than AP play for it. Even in cases where it does cost a few thousand or even more, the business generated is a long-term plus. Even if this caused loses during the promo, MANY people will later be saying, "I know where we should go tonight!" - ESPECIALLY if they had won. A short term loss is often a longer term gain, and a gain overall for the casino operator. How much do you think it costs for all the mailers, the radio spot time, the newspaper ads, et al? Adding some juice and reason to go makes the adverts all that much more inticing and powerful. It's good marketing, and marketing comes as a worthwhile expense to casinos, especially if some or all is won back.
Quote: pocketacesOf course they may entice some new players to show up or cause players to bet far more than they otherwise would have, which will increase gambling volume and possibly reap rewards for the casino, but nearly every player will be playing at a smaller house advantage at this table. Plain and simple. A 3:1 5-card charlie is simply the wrong rule change to bring up your argument.
I disagree; you'd have to see the books to make this call. Keep in mind that not every table will be offering the promo, only BJ tabes, or even some BJ tables. We're looking at this in terms of the "Blackjack hand right in front of us." We need to look at this like casino operators in terms of the additional 2,000 walking in through our front doors. You come to the casino, and your favorite BJ table is full, so you'll play craps, or Roulette, or patronize the food court, or the movie house, or bowling alley, since you're already there, of course....right?
Quote: PaigowdanWhat you're saying is mathematically true, I do not deny it at all.
What I am talking about is that there is a LOT of human error, player error, at the tables, and a new flash promo generates more business than AP play for it. Even in cases where it does cost a few thousand or even more, the business generated is a long-term plus. Even if this caused loses during the promo, MANY people will later be saying, "I know where we should go tonight!" - ESPECIALLY if they had won. A short term loss is often a longer term gain, and a gain overall for the casino operator. How much do you think it costs for all the mailers, the radio spot time, the newspaper ads, et al? Adding some juice and reason to go makes the adverts all that much more inticing and powerful. It's good marketing, and marketing comes as a worthwhile expense to casinos, especially if some or all is won back.
I disagree; you'd have to see the books to make this call. Keep in mind that not every table will be offering the promo, only BJ tabes, or even some BJ tables. You come to the casino, and your favorite BJ table is full, so you'll play craps, or Roulette, or patronize the food court, or the movie house, or bowling alley, since you're already there, of course....right?
Sure, this is the basic premise of a loss-leader, but I do not know if this effect would be enough to make it worthwhile for the casino. Maybe, maybe not. Nobody has the data needed to make this statement, but it could very well be true. However I was speaking very conclusively about the specific math in this rule-change. It's an exceedingly great one for the players, and I was countering your argument that the rule itself can turn into a negative one for the players as a whole simply due to an exceedingly high amount of poor play. This cannot be the angle the casino is pursuing with this promo, and there is no argument here. A loss-leader to get more business in the door? Absolutely, its possible.
So APs are not the only players to benefit. And in this case, what's wild is my thought is "Chasers" would probably do better than unaltered BS players. Unalterted BS players would be making countless errors in this game, likely making them the "bad" players, although they would still do better as a group than playing without the rule.
Quote: weaselmanActually, the expectation of hitting a four-card hard 18 is 3*3/13 - 10/13 = -0.077, meaning that you are better of hitting it against a 9 or higher.
And yeah, hitting a four card hard 15 against a 6 (against anything actually) is a really good idea too :)
You're right, after looking in to this, 4-card hands would almost always be hit, including some hard 18s! Makes sense too.
I must say that MANY promos are great for the players, and that's very fine.
THIS IS FOR INVITED GUESTS ONLY TO CELEBRATE a grand opening of table games, apprx 60 people invited it is 100 percent blackjack and table limits are the same, the reason I am asking is it is on for 6 hours from 6pm to 12am and I think it is 100 percent a +ev game , just do not one to make a mistake and find out it wasnt a plus ev game and go broke
If you played basic strategy, and:
hit any 4 card hands that couldn't break
You'd enjoy the advantage and be fine.
Quote: PaigowdanJeff,
If you played basic strategy, and:
hit any 4 card hands that couldn't break
You'd enjoy the advantage and be fine.
That (the "and" part) is the basic strategy (you always hit hands that cannot break).
As far as four-card hands go, that's easy - you hit everything below 18, and also 18 against 2-8.
A more interesting question is which three- (and two-) card hands you should be hitting as well.
Quote: Weaselman
Quote: Paigowdan:
Jeff,
If you played basic strategy, and:
hit any 4 card hands that couldn't break
You'd enjoy the advantage and be fine.
That (the "and" part) is the basic strategy (you always hit hands that cannot break).
As far as four-card hands go, that's easy - you hit everything below 18, and also 18 against 2-8.
A more interesting question is which three- (and two-) card hands you should be hitting as well.
Weaselman,
No it's not; you stay on many soft 18's, and all soft 19's, 20's, and 21's.
Would you hit 2-2-A-6 (a four card 21) again in regular Blackjack? No, - and basic strategy wouldn't advise this either.
But you'd hit 2-2-A-6 for five cards no busting - to win a 3:1 payout, as per this promo.
At 3:1, there DEFINITELY would be Basic Strategy deviations in a perfect world. There are appendices to the Spanish 21 chart, and the only 3:1 payout is spades or 7+ card 21s. Granted there are no 10s in that deck, but anybody who says that in an optimal world there would be no strategy changes is ignorant to the math.
THAT BEING SAID, I agree with those saying that the majority playing in such a promo will make incorrect decisions that payoff to the casino in the long run. It may take too long to figure out this promotion by the time it's run, but in an optimal situation, you would HAVE to account for that 3:1 payout, especially if it's "free."
