Roulette Question...not relating to Mr. JJJJJJwhatever....

In the Mr. JJJ thread I saw something interesting - yes within all the "attacking", "noobing" and "9 houring". (Although I think I'm a 9 hour guy now cuz that's what it takes to read all the posts).

Disclaimer - In NO WAY do I believe that previous spins will determine what future numbers will come up on an unbiased wheel.

Anyway....one of the points made was that it would be very unlikely for each number to repeat exactly the same number of times within a set number of spins. For instance each number to repeat exactly 7 times within 266 spins. In fact probably everyone here would bet heavily against that happening. I don't play roulette AT ALL but if I were forced to do it (like with a gun to my head) wouldn't it make sense to bet only on the numbers that have recently come up since only a bias can help you chip away at the house advantage? Also, if you memorized the location of where the numbers were on the wheel in relation to each other and "relational" groupings were coming up wouldn't that indicate a bias?

But basically I just don't get roulette at all....I can play poker and make better hands fold and kill it when I have the nuts...why play roulette?


***Please don't attack me as I'll have to find your house and tip your garbage cans over every time you put them out at the curb.

Valid questions, and nicely worded - particularly the part about having a gun to your head.

And, yeah, I'd take that "Not exactly 7 each in 266 spins" bet any day of the week.


The bias would have to be HUGE for a player to take advantage in the manner you're indicating. So huge, that there's no way the game would stay open for very long.

So why do people play? For the same reason they play the lottery: To play their favorite numbers, birthdays, hunches, whatever.


You're correct that you should stick with poker, where at least when you lose, you know why, and can learn from the experience.

When you play poker you are playing with Lady Luck and your fellow poker player's psyches, the casino merely takes a modest rake.
When you play roulette, the casino is taking 5.26 percent for your dalliance with Lady Luck. Poker gives you more control and more of a role in the results, be they good or bad.

These players who want to hypothesize the existence of a bias, however slight, to a certain sector of the wheel are not much different than the players who imagine that Lady Luck is sitting right there and smiling at them! They want to say a certain sector of the wheel is biased, they are not quite sure how strong this bias is but they "feel" that certain numbers being repeaters defines the existence of this bias and therefore they want to place their bets according to this "slight bias" because some numbers are getting more of a chance to be winners than others. Well, somewhere there will be 7 each in 266 spins just to confound those who want to conclude that an ordinary distribution of the numbers has to reveal some bias.

" When you play poker you are playing with Lady Luck and your fellow poker player's psyches, the casino merely takes a modest rake."

Nothing modest about the rake at low limit poker in a casino.

Quote: Woldus

Disclaimer - In NO WAY do I believe that previous spins will determine what future numbers will come up on an unbiased wheel.

You are already ahead of the game.

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Anyway....one of the points made was that it would be very unlikely for each number to repeat exactly the same number of times within a set number of spins.

Of course it's unlikely but it is equally unpredictable.

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For instance each number to repeat exactly 7 times within 266 spins. In fact probably everyone here would bet heavily against that happening.

Sure.

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I don't play roulette AT ALL

Good.

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wouldn't it make sense to bet only on the numbers that have recently come up

Why? Each number has the same chance as any other on the next spin.

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Also, if you memorized the location of where the numbers were on the wheel in relation to each other and "relational" groupings were coming up wouldn't that indicate a bias?

Perhaps you could if the dealer released the ball at the exact same time when the wheel was at such a position that you could sit there and watch 1,000,000 spins for it to be mathematically relevant. This type of "dealer bias" has purportedly been used in the past to a small degree of success.

Great post though and an interesting thing to talk about. It is just the law of random probability. Distribution and trends mean nothing in the future and everything in the past.

Quote: Woldus

For instance each number to repeat exactly 7 times within 266 spins. In fact probably everyone here would bet heavily against that happening.

Depends on the kind of bet you are offering. If you select any other valid distribution of numbers within the 266 spins and I select this one and we'll pay each if their distribution hits i'd take the bet.

Remember even if this distribution is unlikely to hit it's still the most likely distribution over 266 spins...

Quote: YoDiceRoll11

Perhaps you could if the dealer released the ball at the exact same time when the wheel was at such a position that you could sit there and watch 1,000,000 spins for it to be mathematically relevant. This type of "dealer bias" has purportedly been used in the past to a small degree of success.

Great post though and an interesting thing to talk about. It is just the law of random probability. Distribution and trends mean nothing in the future and everything in the past.

Thanks Yo,

Couple responses;

1. I get all that, but every time I walk by the table game pit there are repeating numbers and the board shows about 20(?) numbers so.... why not play those over others?

2. I wasn't thinking of the dealer having any effect, but rather the actual sequence of the numbers around the rim of the wheel. For instance, if 4 or 5 of the numbers on the board that seem to repeat and they are all in the same basic sector of the wheel (I don't know what would be considered a "sector") wouldn't you want to hit the numbers in that area?

[To answer my own question I'm sure if the dealer or pit saw that happening they'd close the table and check the wheel. But reading tons of posts here over the years as well as inside ones from people like Face it seems like there are plenty of people in the trenches in the casino that are just going through the motions - just like any company I guess.]

Quote: Woldus

1. I get all that, but every time I walk by the table game pit there are repeating numbers and the board shows about 20(?) numbers so.... why not play those over others?

Because every spin is independent of the last on an unbiased wheel. Sure, a number can come up 2 times, 3 times, maybe even four times in a row. If this continues, I would question the validity of that particular wheel, and so would casino personnel. Just because the numbers 3 and 17 came up twice in the last twenty spins means only that much, that they came up in the last twenty spins. It in no way predicts future spins. The illogical interpretation of "hot numbers" or "streaks" of numbers is just an analysis of the past. Do you maybe take into account the past numbers, and bet for fun on a recent number, sure go right ahead, but say that the past numbers influence the future ones...that just flies in the face of the laws of probability and makes one look foolish.

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2. I wasn't thinking of the dealer having any effect, but rather the actual sequence of the numbers around the rim of the wheel.

What roulette "experts" bring up, and maybe sometimes rightly so, is that if a dealer spins the ball while the same number is passing, and "throws" the ball at the same momentum, it will land in approximately the same field of numbers consistently.

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For instance, if 4 or 5 of the numbers on the board that seem to repeat and they are all in the same basic sector of the wheel (I don't know what would be considered a "sector") wouldn't you want to hit the numbers in that area?

See above. This is directly related to the dealer and where and when he releases the ball. Like I mentioned, some people say they can observe dealers and use the "hot numbers" to try this strategy. Ultimately, it is negligible and the numbers are still random. I highly doubt a dealer, unless purposely trying to assist a player, is going to release the ball at roughly the same time and place.

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To answer my own question I'm sure if the dealer or pit saw that happening they'd close the table and check the wheel.

Correct.

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But reading tons of posts here over the years as well as inside ones from people like Face it seems like there are plenty of people in the trenches in the casino that are just going through the motions - just like any company I guess.

Probably. The casino cares about the integrity of the game, it is in their best interest, and their bottom line, to ensure the wheel is unbiased and the dealers are not being so consistent as to influence the game.

Very good questions and it is refreshing to have an actual discussion about casino methods about roulette. Cheers.

Quote: Woldus

Thanks Yo,

Couple responses;

1. I get all that, but every time I walk by the table game pit there are repeating numbers and the board shows about 20(?) numbers so.... why not play those over others?

You're falling for a variant of the Birthday Problem. Let's say we go to a party with 30 people and I bet you even money that someone shares MY birthday. You'd think it was a great bet and you'd be correct. Now let's say we're at that same party of 30 people and I bet even money you two people in the room share a birthday. Now the odds are actually significantly in my favor. Read the link if you want details on why that's the case.

In your case, yes, it's very unlikely a specific number will show up twice in the last 20 spins. However it's quite likely that SOME number will show up twice.

Quote: Woldus

2. I wasn't thinking of the dealer having any effect, but rather the actual sequence of the numbers around the rim of the wheel. For instance, if 4 or 5 of the numbers on the board that seem to repeat and they are all in the same basic sector of the wheel (I don't know what would be considered a "sector") wouldn't you want to hit the numbers in that area?

Even if a wheel has a fairly severe bias as to the point the ball leaves the track, the number the ball lands in is also determined by where the rotor is at the time the ball drops. So even if the wheel was significantly biased the number distribution would still be arbitrary as the rotor is constantly changing speeds. Combine that with the ball bouncing off the diamonds and frets and there's no use in trying to bet sections of the wheel based off history alone.

Quote: Woldus

[To answer my own question I'm sure if the dealer or pit saw that happening they'd close the table and check the wheel. But reading tons of posts here over the years as well as inside ones from people like Face it seems like there are plenty of people in the trenches in the casino that are just going through the motions - just like any company I guess.]

Even a going-through-the-motions casino employee will still notice when a player is winning far, far more than his expected variance. This just doesn't happen often, though. When it does it's just dumb luck. I MIGHT give some small credence to some roulette computers in a lab setting but I'm of the belief that visual ballistics and computer-aided wheel clocking are just not enough to beat the 2.7 edge of a single-zero roulette wheel. It's all a load of confirmation bias. I hope one day the Wizard has the time to do an in-depth analysis of VB and roulette computers.

EDIT: I second Yo's comment that it's nice to be able to have a rational discussion.

Quote: PopCan

I MIGHT give some small credence to some roulette computers in a lab setting but I'm of the belief that visual ballistics and computer-aided wheel clocking are just not enough to beat the 2.7 edge of a single-zero roulette wheel. It's all a load of confirmation bias. I hope one day the Wizard has the time to do an in-depth analysis of VB and roulette computers.

Visual ballistics, maybe not. But it's been proven to work with actual computers doing the calculations. That's one of the reasons computerized devices are illegal in Nevada casinos:

Quote: NRS 465

NRS 465.075 Use or possession of device to obtain advantage at playing game in licensed gaming establishment.
1. It is unlawful for any person to use, possess with the intent to use or assist another person in using or possessing with the intent to use any computerized, electronic, electrical or mechanical device which is designed, constructed, altered or programmed to obtain an advantage at playing any game in a licensed gaming establishment, including, without limitation, a device that:
(a) Projects the outcome of the game;
(b) Keeps track of cards played or cards prepared for play;
(c) Analyzes the probability of the occurrence of an event relating to a game;

Have you read "The Eudaemonic Pie" by Thomas Bass? Here's the Wikipedia article on the Eudaemons.

Edit: I'm willing to bet that someone could code up a roulette-clocking app for a smartphone that would have similar effectiveness but without the fire hazards. It would be a fascinating study in physics, but it would be illegal at least in NV.

Some toe tapper at a roulette wheel will get noticed, particularly for winning, but foreknowledge of decaying speed only provides a slight cue as to the sector of the wheel so eight bets would have to be made to take advantage of a roulette clocking mechanism. There was some indication that two Israelis were using a laser based timing device cloaked by several jewelry-bedecked ghetto types of gargantuan proportions but I think it was a practical joke one of them played on a bookie friend.

The Euaemons were curious physicists but some rich professor is supposed to have warned them off as a more money oriented group was already using a device profitably.

Thanks Yo and Popcan for the great info...

My brother likes Roulette - and like you suggested he just likes picking some off the board for fun...I think he figures if he can drink more beer than he has chips it's a positive outing.

I never thought about a "bias" still having to balance ball speed, point of release, wheel speed and bounce from frets or number boxes. What a fuggin joke!

Funny story...
Five years ago...Wife and I at Atlantis in Nassau (#1 spot in the world for me). Never set foot in a casino before. We decided at dinner on the first night we'd try it out. We didn't want to try blackjack because of intimidation regarding etiquette, taking the wrong card, etc. I knew from my brother I could at least bet red or black on the roulette table. So we cleaned up after dinner for a long, entertaining night in the casino downstairs. At 9:00PM we proudly strutted off the elevator and into the casino with my $40 bankroll burning a hole in my pocket.

Turns out the minimum bet on the outside is $10. 5 spins later (1 win) at 9:04PM we were done for the night. We did have a great time watching this kid (on the positive side of variance) not lose for about 10-12 spins with anywhere from $100 to $750 at a time. His girlfriend confirmed that he was really only getting a little back from what he'd lost all week.

The upshot of it all was I found $225 in chips at the bottom of the water slide the next day so we went to the casino class and played craps the rest of the trip and actually won a little money.

Roulette has the best odds in the house, provided the casino is giving you promotional chips that you lose on a lose or a win. Betting the inside numbers is the best way to max out their value. That way they will be worth 92 cents on the dollar in stead of 48 cents on the dollar.